The Exchange Rate and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Germany

For the conduct of monetary policy under floating exchange rates it is important to understand the role of the exchange rate in the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM). The timing and the magnitude of the effects of a change in the exchange rate on output and inflation may be quite different from traditional interest rate channels, thereby affecting optimal policy. In this paper we examine the exchange rate channel in the MTM in Germany by estimating an identified VAR model. Two features of the results are highlighted. The effect of a policy shock on the exchange rate accelerates the pass-through of policy into prices and leads to a different response of the various components of GDP. We then show that these qualitative effects can be duplicated in a general equilibrium model for a semi-small open economy with sticky prices and wages that is calibrated to capture the main features of the German economy.     

A SMALL-SCALE DSGE MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

This paper uses a version of Hansen's (1985) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to forecast the South African economy. The calibrated model, based on annual data over the period of 1970‐2000, is used to generate one‐ to eight‐quarters‐ahead out‐of‐sample forecast errors for the period of 2001:1 to 2005:4. The forecast errors are then compared with the unrestricted versions of the Classical and Bayesian VARs. A Bayesian VAR with relatively loose priors outperforms both the classical VAR and the DSGE model.     

An analysis of RSQE forecasts: 1971–1992

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of ex ante econometric model forecasts of four key macroeconomic variables: real GNP growth, the rate of price inflation measured by the GNP deflator, the civilian unemployment rate, and the Treasury Bill rate. Annual forecasts produced by the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) based on the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy are compared with quasi ex ante forecasts from a four-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Statistical tests of the equality of forecast error variances as well as univariate and multivariate forecast encompassing-type tests are conducted. The forecast error variance comparisons indicate that for three of the four variables the RSQE forecasts are more accurate than the VAR forecasts and for one of the variables (real GNP growth) only slightly less accurate. The forecast encompassing-type tests indicate that the RSQE forecasts contain information not contained in the VAR forecasts and, conversely, that VAR forecasts contain information not included in the RSQE forecasts. The scope for improving RSQE forecasts by combining them with VAR forecasts is rather limited, however.     

FORECASTING PERFORMANCE OF AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

We construct a small open‐economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for South Africa with nominal rigidities, incomplete international risk sharing and partial exchange rate pass‐through. The parameters of the model are estimated using Bayesian methods, and its out‐of‐sample forecasting performance is compared with Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR), classical VAR and random‐walk models. Our results indicate that the DSGE model generates forecasts that are competitive with those from other models, and it contributes statistically significant information to combined forecast measures.     

PATTERNS OF CO‐MOVEMENT BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND GERMANY: EVIDENCE FROM THE PERIOD 1985 TO 2006

This paper examines the co‐movement between Germany and South Africa by applying a dynamic factor model. Because these two countries have a long history of predominant trade ties, they deemed to be suitable proxies to analyse the channels of transmission of positive supply and demand shocks in a developed economy and the effects of these on an emerging market economy. In contrast to general expectations, the paper concludes that a German supply shock has more of a demand‐shock effect on the South African economy, while a German demand shock is transmitted through price in South Africa. This implies that the policy response in South Africa should not necessarily be the same as in Germany.     

Real business cycles in an open economy: An application to Germany

Real Business Cycles in an Open Economy: An Application to Germany. — This paper discusses a stochastic, dynamic-optimizing model of an open economy. It is closely related to small open economy models, but differs by introducing an upward-sloping supply curve of foreign bonds. The model is calibrated to match the long-run features of Germany. The simulations show that the model is consistent with the observed regularities of German business fluctuations.     

Den egna vägen: Sverige och den europeiska integrationen 1961–1971

Abstract

The use of armaments, diplomacy and economic pressure to intervene in the functioning of an enemy economy has been one of the most disputed concepts of warfare in the twentieth century. In the war against Germany after 1939 so called ‘economic warfare’ proved on the whole a poor investment of Allied resources with the notable exception of the bombing raids on synthetic oil factories. By contrast it was eminently successful in the campaigns against Japan. One obvious reason for the difference is that Japan was an island power against which the traditional techniques of naval blockade were effective whereas Germany by her territorial conquests on the continent was able greatly to extend her control over economic resources despite the blockade. But there were other reasons for the relative failure of ‘economic warfare’ against Germany and these, like the results of conquest, are central to these two works. One was that the complexity of the German economy in its international setting, combined with the difficulty of obtaining accurate economic information about an enemy economy during a war, meant that there was in reality no method of selecting with an accuracy sufficient to justify the deployment of large resources a link in the chain of production so weak that it could be destroyed. Secondly, a lurking suspicion that this might be so caused rapid changes in strategy, so that when weak links were identified the targets were seldom attacked for long enough for the strategy to succeed. Thirdly, the weapons and techniques of intervention in an enemy economy were seldom perfect enough to achieve their ambitious purpose. And finally German foreign trade even in strategic commodities survived because it was also in the interests of neutrals, and even in those of the Allies where their own economic relationship with the neutrals was concerned, that it should.     

Eastern Germany and the conflict between wage adjustment,investment, and employment: A numerical analysis

Eastern Germany and the Conflict between Wage Adjustment, Investment, and Employment: A Numerical Analysis. — In this paper, some light is shed on the dynamics of the adjustment process in eastern Germany by studying the linkages between the dynamics of wage adjustment, investment, and employment. An extended dynamic investment model, which includes adjustment costs for capital and revision costs for investment, is presented. This model is specified according to the east German economy and analyzed numerically by an optimization method based on direct collocation. Results are obtained for the time horizon of adjustment and for the implications of different wage strategies on the path of investment and employment.     

Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy

This paper analyzes the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP–VAR) model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy. The parameters are allowed to follow a random walk process and estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The empirical result reveals the time-varying structure of the Japanese economy and monetary policy during the period from 1981 to 2008. The marginal likelihoods of the TVP–VAR model and other fixed parameter VAR models are estimated for model comparison. The estimated marginal likelihoods indicate that the TVP–VAR model best fits the Japanese economic data.     

Did banks cause the German industrialization?

In this paper, we discuss the causal relationship between growth of bank assets and economic performance (economic growth, capital accumulation, productivity). We analyze new data for German banking (Burhop, C., 2002. Die Entwicklung der deutschen Aktienkreditbanken von 1848 bis 1913: Quantifizierungsversuche. Bankhistorisches Archiv 28, 103-128.) and improved national accounting data (Burhop, C., Wolff, G.B., 2005. A compromise estimate of Germany’s Net National Product 1851-1913 and its relevance for economic growth and cycles. forthcoming, Journal of Economic History.) with several recent VAR/VEC based causality tests. Only weak evidence for a causal influence of banks on economic performance on a nation-wide level is detected. On the other hand, the results support the bank-led growth hypothesis for the modern sector of the German economy. In particular, joint-stock credit banks positively influenced capital formation during the early decades of Germany’s industrialization.     

Were capital flows the culprit in the Weimar economic crisis?

This paper examines the role of capital flows in the interwar German economy. We use a calibrated model of sudden stops as our analytical framework and derive four key findings. First, capital flows aggravated the boom–bust cycle of the Weimar economy. Second, these flows were strongly associated—during different periods—with reparations, conditions in the US capital market, and German domestic events. Third, capital flows before 1930 allowed Germany to pay reparations on credit and thus postponed the hour of reckoning when that debt had to be serviced using trade surpluses. Fourth, the German economic downturn in 1931 was due more to capital flows than to productivity shocks or reparations.     

Do Firms Time Their Pollution Abatement Investments Optimally?

In this paper we develop an equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean and dirty (polluting) plants. We conclude that the best time to implement cleaner production technologies is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands, and the USA. It appears that for more than 25 per cent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show significant counter-cyclical behaviour, while in 10 per cent of the sectors these investments are pro-cyclical.     

Trade, capital mobility, and the German labour market

Trade, Capital Mobility, and the German Labour Market. — This paper sets up three structural variants of a general equilibrium model of a small open economy with three sectors (exportables, importables, non-tradables) and three factors (internationally mobile capital and immobile skilled and unskilled labour) in order to analyse the employment and wage effects of globalisation shocks. The model is numerically implemented for West Germany in 1980 on the base of input-output tables and employment data from a random sample of social security accounts. Overall this study indicates that the globalisation process does not have strong effects on unemployment and/or the wage differential in West Germany.     

A BVAR MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

The paper develops a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model of the South African economy for the period of 1970:1‐2000:4 and forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short‐term and long term interest rates, and the CPI. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts than a loose one. The out‐of‐sample‐forecast accuracy resulting from the BVAR model is compared with the same generated from the univariate and unrestricted VAR models. The BVAR model is found to produce the most accurate out of sample forecasts. The same is also capable of correctly predicting the direction of change in the chosen macroeconomic indicators.     

Environmental motivations behind individuals’ energy efficiency investments and daily energy-saving behaviour: evidence from Germany,the Netherlands and Belgium

The impact of environmental motivations on the individual’s decisions regarding investments in energy efficiency and the adoption of energy-saving habits are analysed on the basis of a representative online survey carried out in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Various energy efficiency investments and daily energy-saving activities are considered. Accounting for endogeneity in the basic estimation model, in particular regarding energy conservation activities, the subject’s experience with extreme weather events are used as an instrument for environmental motivations. This study provides empirical evidence that individual energy efficiency investments are generally driven by environmental motivations. Additionally, for the Dutch and the German sub-samples environmental motivations positively affect daily energy-saving activities. The findings suggest that policy programmes aimed at raising environmental awareness and forming pro-environmental motivations can lead to an increase in energy efficiency investments and daily energy-saving activities.     

Consumer revolution in north-western Germany: Material culture,global goods,and proto-industry in rural households in the seventeenth to nineteenth centuries

Existing scholarship on the early modern consumer revolution postulates a dichotomy between the classic pioneering countries of England and the Netherlands and the remaining parts of Europe, which were more stagnant. We contribute to this literature by analysing probate inventories in a rural area in north-western Germany. We show that a closer look at these spaces, which had an intermediate level of development and integration into global markets, reveals a more gradual development and a discernible market evolution. Sumptuary laws may have somewhat slowed down the change in material culture in German regions, but the presence of towns and the proximity to the Netherlands had noticeably positive effects on consumer behaviour. The proto-industrial orientation of local economies proved to be particularly important, as it led to the granting of access to global markets, in addition to greater availability of cash. We observe a delayed diffusion of the new consumer culture in intermediate European regions and argue for a more gradual view of the European consumer revolution.     

The German inflation and foreign business cycles, 1920–1922

The real fluctuations of the German macroeconomy in the early 1920s differed markedly from those of the other major industrial economies. As the others began a steep depression in 1920, German prices stabilized and the economy grew, led by increased investment in response to the stabilization of the political climate. German income growth increased its trade deficits for about a year and cushioned the onset of the depression abroad. In summer 1921, however, as Germany began paying reparations, inflation restarted and investor confidence ebbed. The German boom strengthened then because exports increased and filled the gap left by lagging investment. As Germany struggled to pay reparations, her export boom worsened the depression of demand in the Allied economies, struggling then to recover from the depression.     

FORECASTING THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY WITH VARs AND VECMs

The paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) of the South African economy for the period 1970:1‐2000:4 and forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short and long term interest rates, and the CPI. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts than a loose one. The out‐of‐sample‐forecast accuracy resulting from the BVECM is compared with those generated from the Classical variant of the VAR and VECM and the Bayesian VAR. The BVECM is found to produce the most accurate out of sample forecasts. It also correctly predicts the direction of change in the chosen macroeconomic indicators.     

Germany’s Stalling Economic Engine – How to Get it Running Again

Summary The German economy, once the powerhouse in Europe, is stalling. Unemployment has ratcheted upward since 1970, the social security systems can no longer be financed (even if the population were not ageing) and with an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.2 per cent since 1995, the economy almost stagnates. This paper analyses and suggests solutions to Germany’s three main challenges. To undo the adverse incentives with respect to unemployment, the institutional design for wage formation should be decentralized, the reservation wage adjusted and the tax on labour reduced. To make the social security systems sustainable, the level of social absorption has to be lowered. And, finally, to achieve a more dynamic economy, new stimuli for growth have to be unleashed, including human capital formation and innovation, which are vital for the knowledge society. The role of government has to be rethought and the German social market economy redefined. Jelle Zijlstra Professorial Fellow at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study during September 2004–January 2005, Agip Professor in International Economics at Johns Hopkins in Bologna and President-Emeritus, Kiel Institute of World Economics. The paper is a revised version of the Jelle Zijlstra Lecture, held on January 13, 2005 at the Free University of Amsterdam.     

The imposed gift of Versailles: the fiscal effects of restricting the size of Germany's armed forces, 1924–9

Weimar's politicians used to attribute the continuous budget crises after the currency stabilization of 1923–4 to the burden put on the German economy by the Treaty of Versailles, in particular the reparation payments. This argument, which is still popular, neglects the fact that the restriction of the German military to 115,000 men relieved the German central budget considerably. In a counterfactual analysis we assess the savings in additional military costs and compare them to the reparation payments. Depending on the character of the foreign policy pursued by an unrestricted Germany, we find that the net effect of the Treaty's stipulations on the German central budgets was either much lower than hitherto thought or even positive. This finding gives support to the argument that Germany suffered from home‐made political failure even in the relatively stable period from 1924 to 1929.