数字货币的运行机制与税收治理——基于第三方支付与数字货币比较视角北大核心

央行数字货币是有国家信用背书的法定数字支付手段,有效推动了国内数字支付、数字金融和税收监管的生态创新。本文从第三方支付与数字货币比较视角进行分析,揭示了央行数字货币在交易资金安全、数据信息保护、税源监管等方面的优势,通过深入剖析第三方支付造成的税收信息失真、税收流失等税收治理难题,分析论证了央行数字货币在解决数字经济税收监管方面的优势,并从加强税收信息共享、遏制税收流失、强化金融和税收协同共治等方面,提出央行数字货币助力解决数字经济税收治理难题的政策建议。     

中国央行数字货币的设计机制及潜在影响研究--基于央行数字货币专利申请的分析

本文基于央行数字货币专利申请信息和相关专家公开论述,系统分析了央行数字货币的设计演变、双层投放体系及其对金融体系、政策调控的潜在影响。研究认为,央行数字货币在中心化、双层投放体系设计下,定位于现金替代,对商业银行存款挤出及货币乘数影响较小。央行数字货币在保护用户隐私、提高监管能力、降低交易成本和简化跨境支付方面有着显著优势,对现有第三方支付业务产生替代效应。央行数字货币也会影响以支付为重要入口的金融科技业务和数字金融解决方案输出业务的发展,但若数字货币支付交易数据能够在保证安全和隐私的前提下,向金融科技企业和金融机构开放数据分析接口,则有利于打破数据孤岛,推动金融科技业务和金融数字化转型更好更快发展。     

历史视角下的中央银行数字货币——货币历史上的又一个十字路口

近期,美国国民经济研究局发布报告《历史视角下的中央银行数字货币:货币历史上的又一个十字路口》称,历次货币变革主要由技术发展、经济增长和市场需求等因素驱动,中央银行及货币的演进为中央银行数字货币(CBDC)的推出奠定了基础。基于CBDC的经济性、安全性、普惠性等优点,全球央行正加速研发进程。论文认为,CBDC利率将成为央行实施货币政策的主要工具,计息CBDC可以改善传统货币政策的传导机制和透明度。同时,在全球开放经济环境下,CBDC可以大幅改善跨境支付,对国际经济产生重大影响,进而改变国际货币体系。现将有关内容编译如下,供参考。     

建设现代中央银行制度

"建设现代中央银行制度",是党的十九届四中全会明确提出的重大部署。中央银行制度是最重要的现代经济制度之一,在国家金融制度体系中居于基础地位。未来一个时期,建设我国现代中央银行制度应立足国情,借鉴国际有益经验成果,完善货币政策决策执行机制,健全宏观审慎政策框架,建立现代金融基础设施和中央银行金融服务体系,推动形成高效的货币财政政策协同机制以及中央银行财务预算管理制度,推动相关制度更加成熟、更加定型。     

数字货币对我国金融体系的影响分析

数字货币是一种基于节点网络和数字加密算法的虚拟货币,其发行和使用对我国金融体系的运行产生了巨大的影响.探讨数字货币对传统货币、第三方支付以及国际贸易的影响,并论证数字货币承担货币职能的机理机制,提出未来应从创新监管方式、规范交易平台和实行许可证制度三个层面加强对数字货币的治理,以推进我国数字货币的健康发展.     

数字货币对我国金融体系的影响分析

数字货币是一种基于节点网络和数字加密算法的虚拟货币,其发行和使用对我国金融体系的运行产生了巨大的影响.探讨数字货币对传统货币、第三方支付以及国际贸易的影响,并论证数字货币承担货币职能的机理机制,提出未来应从创新监管方式、规范交易平台和实行许可证制度三个层面加强对数字货币的治理,以推进我国数字货币的健康发展.     

加拿大数字货币的发展实践与启示

分布式账本技术的应用使数字货币进入了新的发展阶段。中央银行数字货币是中央银行的电子化负债,其对计价、交易、支付以至货币政策传导等都存在深刻影响。以加拿大为例,重点分析加拿大银行数字货币的发展实践,着重讨论加拿大贾斯珀项目如何测试分布式账本技术在银行间大额支付系统的适用性,同时分析如何将数字货币支付结算拓展至证券和外汇领域,并与外部合作进行跨境、跨币种支付试验。加拿大央行数字货币实践取得的积极进展表明,数字货币发行能力是维系央行功能的基础保障,但仍需权衡中心化管理体系与去中心化技术系统的匹配问题,分布式账本技术及其在央行数字货币的应用仍需深入研究与评估。     

数字时代全球支付体系及中央银行数字货币前景分析

数字时代下支付体系呈现出数字支付替代现金支付、科技巨头进入支付领域、支付隐形成本较高、部分地区普遍缺乏数字支付服务以及数据治理问题等新特点.央行数字货币(CBDC)可分为批发型和零售型两种设计模式,采用中央银行和私营部门共同发挥作用的双层模式设计更具优势,有利于央行经济政策的独立性和金融市场技术创新需求.基于账户的CDBC在绑定数字身份后,可以有助于防范诈骗和打击洗钱等非法活动,但要求健全的数据治理和隐私保护功能.此外,良好的多边CBDC设计可在有效消除货币替代风险的同时提高跨境支付效率.     

央行数字货币在跨境支付清算领域中的应用

近年来,我国跨境电商发展迅猛,跨境支付清算体系作为国际贸易的支撑,具有举足轻重的地位.然而,当前的国际跨境支付清算体系受SWIFT系统制约影响,存在着支付效率低、支付成本高、网络安全性差、监管难度大等问题.我国正在推进数字人民币试点工作,尽管其主要定位是用于满足国内零售支付需要,但在跨境支付清算领域,央行数字货币为国际...     

发行法定数字货币对中央银行会计财务工作的影响探析

本文从法定数字货币体系的核心要素入手,分析中央银行发行法定数字货币的背景及其特点,并在此基础上进一步探讨其对中央银行会计财务工作的影响。一是法定数字货币的发行和后续计量对相关账户和会计科目、央行资产负债表列报、会计基本制度的影响;二是法定数字货币的发行和交易对财务资金风险防范的影响;三是其对中央银行发行货币财务成本的影响;四是其对相关会计资料和档案管理的影响。最后,本文提出适应法定数字货币发行的相关政策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.