A Theory of Endogenous Coalition Structures

Consider an environment with widespread externalities, and suppose that binding agreements can be written. We study coalition formation in such a setting. Our analysis proceeds by defining on a partition function an extensive-form bargaining game. We establish the existence of a stationary subgame perfect equilibrium for such a game. Our main results are concerned with the characterization of equilibriumcoalition structures. We develop an algorithm that generates (under certain conditions) an equilibrium coalition structure. Our characterization results are especially sharp forsymmetricpartition functions. In particular, we provide a uniqueness theorem and apply our results to a Cournot oligopoly.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C71, C72, C78, D62.     

Immanuel Kant and Endogenous Growth Theory

Despite the modern origins of endogenous growth theory, we argue that the ‘Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Aim’ written by Immanuel Kant in 1784 provides an early and coherent example of such a theory. Kant's endogenous growth mechanism is driven by the inherent rivalry that exists between agents which increases effort and strengthens the accumulation of knowledge, which in turn is carried through generations. In an exercise in ‘rational reconstruction’, we present a mathematical model of Kant's mechanism. We use the model to contribute to the contemporary policy debate as to whether ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ leads to excessive effort.     

Firm Scale and the Endogenous Timing of Entry: a Choice between Commitment and Flexibility

This paper presents a model of stochastic oligopoly with demand uncertainty where firms endogenously choose entry timing. We examine two extreme types of market structure and show that the equilibrium correspondence that connects them is continous. With two identically sized firms, there are symmetric, Cournot type equilibria where the probability of early entry declines with greater uncertainty, and for low uncertainty two asymmetric equilibria. With one large firm with a continuum of nonatomic firms, there is a unique Stackelberg equilibrium. We conclude that the behavior of a dominant firm with a finite fringe can be approximated by Stackelberg equilibrium.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers?: D21, L11.     

Testing Mundell's Intuition of Endogenous OCA Theory*

This paper presents an empirical assessment of the endogenous optimum currency area theory. Frankel and Rose (1998 ) study the endogeneity of a currency union through the lens of international trade flows. Our study extends Frankel and Rose's model by using FDI flows to test the original theory developed by Mundell in 1973. A gravity model is used to empirically assess the effectiveness of the convergence criteria by examining location‐specific advantages that guide multinational investment within the European Union. A fixed effects model based on a panel data of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows within the EU‐15 shows that horizontal investment promotes the diffusion of the production process across the national border. Specifically, our results suggest that economic convergence ensured by belonging to the common currency area helps double FDI flows.     

Towards a Disequilibrium Theory of Endogenous Economic Growth

This paper discusses the need for a new approach to economic growth theory. The standard theory of growth-in-equilibrium driven by exogenous, uncaused, productivity gains has an implication that is both unjustified and perverse from a policy perspective: that government intervention of any kind can only introduce constraints and reduce option space, thus decreasing potential growth. It is argued that growth theory should (1) acknowledge the importance of natural resources, especially fossil fuels, as a driver of past and present economic growth, (2) incorporate an explicit recognition that growth is a consequence of technological innovation, especially radical innovation, that often responds to natural resource scarcities or other societal needs and (3) explicitly reflect the fact that the important (i.e. scarce) factors of production in economics can and do change over time, i.e. from a rural ‘cowboy’ economy of the past to an urbanized ‘spaceship’ economy of the future. In short, it should reflect the fact that ‘necessity is the mother of invention’. The first and third of these modifications have been proposed before, but not in combination. The third seems to be new.     

关于货币内生、外生问题的一般理论

货币内生性和货币外生性都是存在的,只是二者的出现分别需要具备一定的条件。货币的内生、外生取决于两方面行为主体的情况:货币需求者和中央银行的经济情况。货币需求者方面的货币内生性取决于货币需求者能否通过货币市场、货币乘数、基础货币满足交易货币。中央银行方面的货币外生性取决于两个方面:第一,中央银行能否控制货币供给;第二,货币供给改变以后能否改变货币需求。当经济由扩张转为收缩,或由收缩转为扩张,货币的内生、外生会有不同的表现,包括对称的货币内生、对称的货币外生以及不对称的各种情况。     

基于内外生关系理论的企业专业化成长机制

根据企业内生与外生成长理论,基于世界银行对中国企业投资环境的调查数据,利用OLS与分位数回归重点研究市场集中度、融资成本和研发投入对企业专业成长的影响及其影响机制的差异性.融资成本对企业专业成长有显著负向作用,研发投入则正向促进企业专业成长,而市场集中度与企业专业成长呈现明显的“倒U型”关系特征:市场集中度对企业专业化成长的作用存在一个最优的临界水平;在该水平前,市场集中度对企业专业成长有显著正向效应;在该水平后,市场集中度的提升反而不利于企业专业化成长.     

内生经济增长理论框架下的市场失效与财政政策

内生经济增长理论认为,知识和人力资本的外部效应与创新带来的垄断势力推动经济增长的同时,也会带来非帕雷托最优的经济增长收入分配的不公平,将阻碍经济增长;加快知识和人力资本积累、促进技术进步以及缓解收入分配不公平的财政政策能纠正市场失效,使长期经济增长达到社会最优.     

从内生货币到内生金融:后凯恩斯主义货币金融理论的发展与启示

后凯恩斯主义从反向因果关系和金融创新两个维度诠释了货币内生的机理和过程,但却由于把关注焦点集中于传统商业银行而受到Palley的批评,后者提出用内生金融概念取代内生货币以涵盖非银行金融机构的流动性创造.尽管非银行金融机构创造的负债可以代替货币执行交易媒介的职能,然而其流动性终究是虚拟的,离不开商业银行"真正"流动性的参与和支持.现实生活中,商业银行和非银行金融机构之间的界限日益模糊,整个金融体系在带来远大于内生货币理论描述的金融弹性的同时,也导致更大的金融不稳定性.后凯恩斯主义从内生货币到内生金融理论的发展,丰富了我们对货币金融本质和规律的认识,为走出中国特色金融发展之路提供了参考和借鉴.     

中国特色社会主义政治经济学的内生性国家理论

国家内生性地嵌入社会生产关系,经济基础和上层建筑由此成为对立统一的整体。本文从结构主义和工具主义的双重视角出发,坚持历史与逻辑相统一的马克思主义方法,提出国家是中国特色社会主义的历史起点和历史终点,而国家所有制则可被视为中国特色社会主义政治经济学的逻辑起点和逻辑终点。从历史起点到历史终点,国家体现了人民民主专政的政治功能,而从逻辑起点到逻辑终点,国家所有制体现的是为宏观调控夯实中观和微观基础的经济功能。国家嵌入了宏观、中观和微观各个层面的社会生产关系,由此内生性地与经济基础结合在一起,这也解释了为什么政治是经济的集中表现。     

Informal Insurance Arrangements with Limited Commitment: Theory and Evidence from Village Economies

Recent work on consumption allocations in village economies finds that idiosyncratic variation in consumption is systematically related to idiosyncratic variation in income, thus rejecting the hypothesis of full risk-pooling. We attempt to explain these observations by adding limited commitment as an impediment to risk-pooling. We provide a general dynamic model and completely characterise efficient informal insurance arrangements constrained by limited commitment, and test the model using data from three Indian villages. We find that the model can fully explain the dynamic response of consumption to income, but that it fails to explain the distribution of consumption across households.     

内生增长框架下的中小企业和我国经济增长稳定

稳定中国经济高速增长的措施除了扩大国内需求之外,还可以从供给的角度考虑中小企业的作用。中小企业在国民经济总量中的重大贡献和中小企业内部管理不足的矛盾是影响我国经济增长趋于不稳定的一个重要因素。理论和实证分析结果表明,企业家知识溢出能力是决定企业私人知识边际产出的重要因素,中小企业主缺乏企业家的知识溢出能力是导致人均产出份额低于总量产出份额的主要原因。本文结论是我国要加大中小企业内部管理投入,促进中小企业主向企业家的实质性转变,提高中小企业主的知识产出能力,用以提高中小企业资源的使用效率,从而提高我国要素的整体使用效率,最终为稳定我国高速经济增长提供一个长远动力。     

内生增长理论对我国财政政策的启示

内生经济增长理论提出知识积累、技术创新是导致一国经济实现长期持续增长的源泉。目前,我国经济中还存在一些制约经济增长的因素,限制了我国实现内生增长的路径。有效的财政政策是促进技术进步,实现经济内生增长的重要途径。为此,政府必须出台切实有效的财政政策,培育实现内生增长的技术创新的条件。     

A Ricardian Model with Endogenous Comparative Advantage and Endogenous Trade Policy Regimes

This paper develops a Ricardian model with transaction costs and endogenous and exogenous comparative advantages. It shows that the level of division of labour and trade increases as transaction conditions improve. It identifies the conditions for trade negotiations that result in zero tariff rates and the conditions for the coexistence of unilateral tariff protection and unilateral laissez faire policies. The model may explain the policy transformation of some European governments from Mercantilism to laissez faire in the 18th and 19th century and policy changes in developing countries from protection tariff to trade liberalization and tariff negotiation.     

创新补偿性与内生增长可持续性理论研究

近年全球经济的发展趋势引发了对内生增长的平衡增长路径的稳定性和可持续性问题的思考。本文建立三部门一致增长模型,研究近代世界经济发展的阶段性规律。研究表明:内生增长经济均衡有潜在的不稳定性,存在多重均衡的可能;当资源约束限制总生产保持长期常规模回报水平时,只有当知识生产部门的增规模回报率充分大,足以抵消工业生产部门的规模报酬减少的影响,总体经济才能获得可持续发展。为实现正的内生增长,知识生产部门的增规模回报的强度与物质资本在知识生产中的弹性贡献率呈正相关关系。文章提出了不同的长期经济发展的三阶段解释,可以一致地解释近现代长期经济发展主要阶段的动态发展规律。     

管理要素的经济学内涵界定及其对内生增长理论的拓展

本文通过比较管理学范畴和经济学范畴关于管理要素内涵的已有论述,从知识性资源的角度重新界定了管理要素的内涵,并论述了管理要素在经济增长中可能存在的作用方式和特征.从管理要素是一种知识性生产资源出发,对内生的知识生产模型进行拓展.研究结果表明,企业家知识对经济增长的影响可以作为一种内生力量,一个经济体中企业家禀赋和企业家能力的高低对经济增长具有决定性作用.     

Severance Payments and Unemployment Insurance: A Commitment Issue

In the event of a job termination, many workers receive severance payments from their employer, in addition to publicly provided unemployment insurance (UI). In the absence of a third party enforcer, contracts featuring severance payments must be supported by an implicit self‐enforcing contract. Workers believe employers will make severance payments only if it is in their best interest ex post. If firms discount the future deeply, they will reduce the severance payment they offer, in order to relax their incentive constraint. Workers are forced to bear risk, and too many workers are laid off. We show that a well‐designed public UI system can correct these distortions.     

Commitment and self-control

The literature on self-control problems has typically concentrated on immediate temptations. This paper studies a Gul and Pesendorfer [Temptation and self-control, Econometrica 69 (2001) 1403-1435; Self-control and the theory of consumption, Econometrica 72 (2004) 119-158] style model in which decision-makers are affected by temptations that lie in the future. While temptation is commonly understood to give rise to a demand for commitment, it is shown that ‘temptation by future consumption’ can induce its absence. The model also exhibits procrastination, provides an alternative to projection bias as an explanation for some experimental results, and can simultaneously account for myopic and hyperopic behavior. The evidence on preference reversals supports temptation by future consumption, and suggests that it may not be restricted to short time horizons.     

国际贸易理论发展中技术的内生化演进

贸易理论的发展以技术差异分析为起点,立足于解释贸易和增长间现实联系,但发展过程中由于对技术的忽略却导致贸易利益的解释偏于狭隘.笔者基于贸易理论解释现实的需要,分析了技术从被忽略到外生处理的原因和局限,探究了现实经济驱动下技术内生化的路径.笔者认为只有把技术与要素禀赋差异、规模经济结合起来,国际贸易理论才可能对贸易动因、贸易模式变动、动态贸易利益等问题做出全面客观的解答.