Strategic planning III: Objectives and program options

This series of papers deals with technological forecasting in strategic planning. In the first paper the author examines forecasting and planning as a process, identifying five roles of forecasting (1) Identifying policy options; (2) Aiding strategy formulation; (3) Identifying program options; (4) Selecting programs for funding, and (5) Selecting opportunities for funding. The subsequent papers deal primarily with the first and third roles.The second paper of the series describes perspective trees—a form of relevance tree—for identifying policy options. A perspective tree is used to interrelate sets of social, economic, political, and technological forecasts that pote threats and present opportunities for strategic consideration.The third paper of the series describes the use of objective trees in structuring program options for selected strategies. R&D programs as well as marketing and other functional business programs are structured—clarifying options for the decision-making process.     

The process of applied technology forecasting : A study of executive analysis, anticipation, and planning

The objective of this research is a study of technology forecasting not only as a discipline but also as an executive responsibility by applying the information processing theory to this task. A protocol analysis from Ericsson and Simon, modified for this study, was used for the analysis of interview data of top executives from the magnetic resonance imaging industry and their superconducting magnet suppliers, when they had to face a specific technological event. The technological event is the breakthrough discovery of ceramic superconducting materials in 1986, and the fast technological progress that followed between 1987 and 1989. This paper illustrates the processes through which senior executives collect information, process it, and develop plans and predictions in the context of “hard” uncertainty. We use cognitive and strategic decision-making research to develop a normative typology of executive decision making in similar contexts.     

Perceived usefulness of Technological Forecasting techniques

Although there are a number of powerful technological forecasting (TF) techniques, not all of them are perceived equally useful, nor are they applicable in all situations. The technique used depends on the forecasting objectives of the firm, which in turn depend on the nature of the firm or industry. In this article, the perceived usefulness of some of the common TF techniques (based on a survey) is analyzed. The results lead to the categorization of the techniques into two distinct groups. The relationship between the industry and its preference for a specific category of TF is suggested. Some suggestions are offered for increasing the usefulness of TF within a firm.     

Measuring the Pace of Technological Progress: Implications for Technological Forecasting

The pace of technological progress is a construct that has evolved from technological change theories. Although the construct is well described, it lacks a valid objective measure. Measuring the pace of technological progress is believed to be important for both technology management and technology forecasting. A newly-developed objective measure of the pace of technological progress called the Technology Cycle Time indicator (TCT) is evaluated. The TCT indicator was used in two comparison analyses: (1) assessing the pace of progress of superconductor and semiconductor technologies; and (2) assessing the position of various countries patenting in the semiconductor technology field. The TCT assessments were then analytically compared with specialist assessments found in the literature. The findings revealed that the TCT provided a valid assessment in each situation. The TCT has important implications for technology management and technology forecasting research.     

Technological forecasting and assessment: Science and/or mythology?

A number of radically distinct models (inquiry systems) are described. The models derive from C, West Churchman's recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology. It is argued that only a few of these models are appropriate for technological forecasting problems. Most technological forecasting methodologies rest on a dubious philosophical foundation. They unreflectively assume that the inquiry systems which are appropriate for “well-structured” problems are also appropriate for “ill structured” problems. It is argued that technological forecasting is an inherently ill-structured problem and therefore requires a methodology which is uniquely suited to such problems. The Dialectical and Singerian Inquiring Systems are proposed as particularly appropriate for ill-structured problems.     

Graduate overeducation as a sheepskin effect: evidence from Northern Ireland

This article examines the nature of graduate overeducation amongst a group of applicants to a graduate conversion programme. It was found that while a substantial proportion of earnings differentials were associated with a mismatch between individual skill levels and job requirements, wage gaps were still likely to occur should such mismatches be eliminated. The evidence suggests that graduate wage levels are heavily related to sheepskin effects associated with the attainment of jobs with graduate level entry requirements. These sheepskin effects suggest that the process of job categorization is arbitrary in nature, with stated job requirements somewhat independent of actual skill requirements. The analysis suggests that graduate overeduction is better understood within the context of both skill and categorization mismatches as opposed to skill matches alone.     

New venture planning: The role of technological forecasting

A system for the analysis and planning of new ventures is developed which provides a structure for the application of logical, mathematical, and scientific procedures to decision problems which (1) involve a significant portion of an organization's resources, (2) have long term effects on a firm's future success, and (3) are characterized by uncertainty in many of the factors important to the decision. The system is based on a synthesis of various analytical techniques from the fields of technological forecasting, decision analysis, and system dynamics, and provides a general methodology for rank-ordering new venture candidates and determining the resource allocation level required for new venture portfolios designed to achieve long term growth objectives. The role played by technological forecasting in new venture planning and in the selection of engineering projects is discussed.     

Demand forecasting for multigenerational products combining discrete choice and dynamics of diffusion under technological trajectories

The discrete choice model generally captures consumers' valuation of the product's quality within the framework of a cross-sectional analysis, while the diffusion model captures the dynamics of demand within the framework of a time-series analysis. We propose an adjusted discrete choice model that incorporates the choice behavior of the consumer into the dynamics of product diffusion. In addition, a new estimation structure is proposed, within the framework of the time-series analysis, which enables the estimation of the discrete choice model on market-level data to be performed in such a way as to avoid the problem of price endogeneity and to obtain greater flexibility in forecasting demand. As an empirical application, the suggested model is applied to the case of the worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) market. In forecasting future demand of DRAM generations, we integrate Moore's law and learning by doing to reflect the future technological trajectories of DRAM innovations, as well as consumers' consumption trends to reflect the dynamics of demand environments. As a result, the suggested model shows better performance in explaining the diffusion of new-generation product with limited number of data observations.     

并购融资决策影响下的企业技术创新

以我国 A 股上市公司并购融资事件作为研究样本,对并购融资决策如何影响企业技术创新这一问题做出分析。结果表明：在并购融资中,如果企业越偏好债权融资,技术创新就越弱。产权性质具有调节作用,国有产权能够减弱并购债权融资决策对技术创新的负面影响。并购债权融资决策对企业技术创新的影响以及产权性质的调节作用,主要在成长期企业和高新技术企业中得到体现。并购债权融资决策显著影响的是企业的中级和初级技术创新活动,产权性质的调节作用也集中体现在上述关系中。研究的启示是：第一,具有研发需求的企业,特别是成长期企业、高新技术企业、小步快跑式创新企业,要慎重对待并购债权融资;第二,创新金融体制机制,为企业并购提供更多的融资方式选择。     

Assessing and forecasting technology dynamics in smartphones: a TFDEA approach

Over the last 20 years, the smartphone technologies at the device level have undergone tremendous change. This paper puts forward a framework to characterise, assess and forecast the smartphone technologies at the device level. The study assesses and forecasts the technological advancement observed in smartphones using technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis with an objective to evaluate the technological rate of change in the device. A quarterly data set comprising 31 quarters from 2007 to 2014 was analysed for smartphone releases in a particular price range. For the validation purpose, the analysis was designed to set the point of forecasting somewhere in 2012 using the data set between 2007 and 2012, so as to forecast the technologies thereon till 2014. The results indicate that the rate of technological change in smartphones is accelerating.     

Technological Threat and Opportunity Assessment

One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of aniticpating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making. The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach.Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way. It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit.Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy.     

Barriers to use of policy-relevant information by decision makers

This paper identifies the major barriers which hinder or prevent the application of policy-relevant information, derived from analytical techniques, to practical decisions by actual decision makers. The focus of the report is on Technology Assessment (TA), as an analytical technique which has not yet received the level of utilization which its practitioners have hoped for. However, TA borrows from the older analytic disciplines of technological forecasting and systems analysis, and is related to others such as cost-benefit analysis. Because of the similarities with these other disciplines, many of the barriers which hinder the application of these older techniques also act as barriers to the greater     

行为经济学视角下的就业问题分析——以大学生就业为例

大学毕业生就业难是带有普遍性的问题,其中的原因可归结为两个方面,一方面是就业市场需求等外部因素;另一方面是大学生对待就业和择业的非理性行为等自身因素,这是对大学生就业影响更大但通常被忽视的一个方面.从行为经济学视角分析,这种非理性行为产生的原因在于行为人在不确定条件下决策时的各种认知偏差,其后果是降低就业成功率,加大就业风险.为此,提出防范大学毕业生非理性行为及减小就业风险的一系列对策.     

Medical technology decisions in The Netherlands: How to solve the dilemma of technology foresight versus market research?

In this article, we discuss a dilemma consisting of the market-oriented perspective of users of medical technology versus the long-term technology foresight perspective. The context of medical technology is interesting, because we have to cope with complex future-oriented multi-level and multi-actor strategic decision making. In order to deal with this dilemma we suggest combining the results of a (group) expert opinion forecasting approach with a more market-oriented scenario-approach. More specifically, we use the results of the Delphi-technique as the main input for the development of various capacity (Market-based) scenarios. We exemplify this approach by a real life example directed at the future of imaging techniques for cancer care in The Netherlands and focus on a set of scenarios that deal with the application of the MRI-technique in the period 2005–2015. The Delphi-panel's expectations with respect to imaging technology representing the technological forecasts, combined with other relevant developments (such as demographic and epidemiological developments) are translated into alternative inputs for assumptions of the scenario-model. This model is basic to the future projections in terms of needed MRI-scanners, manpower and investments. We argue that the results provide motivation to continue to explore the methodological interesting area of innovation, aligning the market-oriented perspective of users of (medical) technology with the long-term technology forecasting perspective.     

A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting

During the past decade, there have been some significant developments in technological forecasting methodology. This paper describes developments in environmental scanning, models, scenarios, Delphi, extrapolation, probabilistic forecasts, technology measurement and some chaos-like behavior in technological data. Some of these developments are refinements of earlier methodology, such as using computerized data mining (DM) for environmental scanning, which extends the power of earlier methods. Other methodology developments, such as the use of cellular automata and object-oriented simulation, represent new approaches to basic forecasting methods. Probabilistic forecasts were developed only within the past decade, but now appear ready for practical use. Other developments include the wide use of some methods, such as the massive national Delphi studies carried out in Japan, Korea, Germany and India. Other new developments include empirical tests of various trend extrapolation methods, to assist the forecaster in selecting the appropriate trend model for a specific case. Each of these developments is discussed in detail.     

Coal gasification: An economic evaluation

Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.The cost forecasting model is also modified to compare the cost per kilowatt–hour of generated electricity when fueling a 1,000 Mw power plant with oil versus high BTU gas from coal. Again, based upon the costs to private investors, the simulation results indicate a very low probability that high BTU gas from coal would prove the least costly fuel for generating electricity.The implied economic infeasibility for private investment in coal gasification does not necessarily provide a basis for public policy to abandon the technology. Public policy recommendations must consider social costs as well as private costs. Possibly the greatest social cost associated with abandoning coal gasification is the risk of a significant energy supply interruption. A diversified national energy policy including coal gasification may in fact be less costly if relevant social costs are included in the calculations. Results from the cost forecasting model indicate the size and type of public subsidies that may be necessary to support a diversified energy industry which would include coal gasification.     

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Home and Host Countries with Endogenous R&D

The paper analyzes the impact of FDI on home and host countries, when firms compete both in the choice of international strategy and in R&D. A two-country, two-firm model is used. The problem is structured as a three-stage game in which firms must decide: the mode of foreign expansion; how much to invest in R&D; how much to sell in each market. It is shown that in high-technology sectors a policy of attracting inward FDI may increase welfare in both the home and host countries. The effect on host-country welfare is found to be more beneficial if technological spillovers are national, instead of international, in scope.     

Innovation in R&D service firms: evidence from the UK

Research and Development (R&D) service firms make significant contributions to innovation in other businesses. The extant literature considers these firms a homogenous sub-group of Knowledge Intensive Business Service firms (KIBS). The objective of this study is to investigate how R&D service firms innovate and the variety of innovation practices within these firms. Employing data from semi-structured interviews with senior managers from 32 UK-based R&D service firms, we suggest that there are two different modes of innovation: in the first mode, R&D service firms innovate similarly to KIBS whose innovation is ad-hoc in nature and driven by customers’ requests; another group of R&D service firms innovate like New Technology-based Firms (NTBFs) relying more on structured in-house R&D activities.