我国三十年来农村地区金融改革的逻辑轨迹——基于新比较经济学分析框架的研究

文章基于新比较经济学的分析框架,从正规金融和非正规金融两个方面来论述三十年来中国农村地区金融改革的基本逻辑。研究认为,农村金融发展滞后于农村经济发展的原因是政府对农村金融的控制方式不尽合理。文章充分肯定了国家2005年至今的改革措施,认为新型金融机构的引进将成为建立完善的农村金融体系的契机。     

农村信用社利率定价模型实证分析

利率市场化改革的核心是建立科学合理的利率定价制度。目前,多数中小金融机构特别是农村信用社,贷款定价模式比较简单粗糙,在实际执行过程中广泛存在＂一刀切＂的现象。科学合理的利率定价模型不仅要涵盖银行资金成本、风险、目标利润等,还需要考虑贷款人的对利率的承受能力并有较强的可操作性。     

农村信用社票据业务存在的问题及解决对策

为适应商品经济的快速发展,近年来,各地农村信用社票据贴现业务蓬勃兴起。该业务的发展不仅使农村信用社的信贷资产多元化,改变了以往农村信用社资产业务单一的状况,而且也为农村信用社提供了新的利润增长点,实现了货币资源的有效配置。但目前,农村信用社的票据业务,无论是在票据的签发、承兑上,还是在贴现、转贴现和再贴现上,都受多种因素制约而表现为发展滞后。一些农村信用社为扩大该类业务的规模,在办理这项业务时存在业务操作不规范现象,影响汇票的承兑结算,易造成风险隐患。为防范和控制票据业务风险,就票据贴现业务开展过程中存在的问题进行具体分析,并提出了相应解决方法。     

福建省农村信用社经营风险评价分析

为了加强对福建农村信用社的金融监管,全面、客观地评价农村信用社机构的金融风险,提高金融监管的有效性,督促农村信用社机构增强金融风险的自我防范、自我控制和自我化解能力,促进其健康稳定地发展,必须按照定性和定量相结合的原则,建立一套能客观评价农村信用社经营风险的指标体系。对福建农村信用社的经营风险进行预警研究,为防控金融风险提供客观的指导作用。     

HOW COOPERATIVE ARE SAVINGS AND CREDIT COOPERATIVES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?: AN ANALYSIS OF DATASETS FROM UGANDA

Building successful savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOs) that actually embody the cooperative principles is a challenge to development agencies. Although SACCOs form the majority of microfinance providers in many developing countries, the most recent literature on microfinance governance and performance has given little reference to the longstanding body of relevant cooperative literature. SACCO representation in microfinance datasets is biased. Drawing on so‐far unexploited datasets of Ugandan SACCOs and savings groups, this paper empirically analyses policy debate regarding SACCO‐ and savings group regulation. The findings point to the relevance of practically implementing the principle of ‘cooperation between cooperatives’ to ensure effective governance at SACCO level. Moreover, the paper introduces two new measures, based on members' savings and shares, which could become useful tools to track the application of cooperative principles in developing countries, and hence improve evidence‐based policy‐making for SACCOs.     

农村合作金融制度变迁的调研分析

我国农村产业结构的演进对农村信用社的信贷行为结构产生了深刻的影响.本文对LD农村信用联社的案例研究表明,农村信用社一方面需要以支持农村经济发展为基础拓展业务领域,同时也必须适应农村城市化和产业结构调整进行必要的金融创新和制度创新.本文详尽解析了LD联社的存贷款业务创新和贷款风险控制与信用评估体系,并揭示了农村信用社信贷行为与农民信用意识培育之间的深刻内在联系.     

湖南省跨区域农村合作金融机构并购重组方式优化策略研究

以湖南省14个市州内35家跨区域农村合作金融机构为对象,在分析湖南省跨区域农村合作金融机构发展现状及存在制约因素基础上指出,跨区域农村合作金融机构并购重组是促进农村合作金融机构发展的有效途径.并进一步地从理论上比较分析了农村合作金融机构采用不同并购重组方式所产生的效率,且从实践上探讨了湖南省跨区域农村合作金融机构并购重组的路径,进而为优化湖南省跨区域金融机构并购重组提供了相应的政策建议.     

新时期农村信用社金融产品创新分析——以漳平市为例

深入分析漳平市农村信用社金融产品创新的现状,发现金融产品创新过程中存在金融产品和服务方式传统单一、产品普遍存在额度小、期限短等问题。结合漳平市自身条件从六个方面提出促进农村信用社金融产品创新的对策建议,主要途径是把握客户需求并细分市场、调整优化农村金融配置资源、营造良好金融生态环境、完善农村金融市场产品线、大力发展中间业务、提高农村信用社人力资源利用效率。     

新会计准则对农村信用社的影响研究——基于会计核算视角

新会计准则体系的颁布,带来的不仅仅是会计政策的变化,而且涉及到了从确认、计量到记录、报告的整个会计过程,同时给农村信用社的会计核算方法、会计科目体系、核心账务系统等带来一系列的改变。针对目前大部分农村信用社产权制度不清晰等问题,采取完善内控制度、提高风险意识、加强人员培训、健全会计信息系统等具体措施,可以有效改善现状。     

基于现金流模型的农村小额贷款风险分析

试图对乡镇村等农村地区小额贷款的现状进行考察,通过对农信社的基本运营模式和其现金流通过程进行建模处理,以及进行相应的风险评估和若干问题分析,得出关于农信社这种当今在农村地区最为普遍的小额贷款模式健康与否的相关结论,从而进一步对其可能的发展方向进行预测,并继续关注这一现象的最新发展。     

中国国民储蓄实证研究——基于结构视角

从结构上看,国民储蓄包括居民储蓄、企业储蓄、政府储蓄,通常按照资金流量表对三者进行测算是不科学的,应直接用支出法对国民经济核算数据来进行测算改革开放以来居民储蓄、企业储蓄、政府储蓄的数量。中国储蓄率的变化趋势主要应该由企业储蓄、政府储蓄来解释,居民储蓄改革开放以来总体上保持了稳定。     

中国农村信用合作社体制改革与经营创新实证研究

我国农村信用合作社自2003年启动专项改革以来,取得了重要进展和阶段性成果,但由于几十年来农信社官办化严重、历史包袱重和缺乏群众参与基础等问题,现有农信社机制不完全适应新农村建设和农业现代化发展的要求。从我们所调查的湖南浏阳市农村合作银行体制改革的实践来看,农村信用合作社机制的改革和完善,是创新我国农村金融体系中至关重要的一环。     

The resurrection of earlier imprints post mortem: Explaining the Turkish agricultural cooperative movement with an imprinting theory lens, 1888–1937

This study aims to extend the cooperative lifecycle theory, which builds on consecutive degeneration and regeneration of ideal cooperative values such as democracy, self-help, and solidarity by offering a new regenerative mechanism. In this respect, the study imports multilevel imprinting theory from the organizational ecology domain to explicate the punctuated evolutionary pattern of Turkish agricultural credit cooperatives, which displayed significantly different characteristics from Raiffeisen cooperatives that cooperative discourse in Türkiye used for a long as a benchmark. The archival research undertaken in the study asserts that the imprints of Ottoman Memleket Sandiks (OMS) have stamped agricultural credit cooperatives of the Republican era long after their erosion. The resurrection of imprints was enabled by Ziraat Bank, which acted as an intermediary organization and took over the remnants of OMSs. Our analyses also suggest that the State's polity and policy transformations culminate in selective activation of past imprints within the Ziraat Bank, which, in turn, shaped the Turkish agricultural cooperative field.     

Understanding domestic savings: an empirical approach

ABSTRACT

There are two unusual and important features in the evolution of the savings rate in Chile. First, the economy increased the average savings rate by 11 percentage points in the period 1985–2013 compared to 1960–1984, mainly due to a large change in private savings rate (10 percentage points), and an additional 1 percentage point from the public sector. The second feature is related to the change in the composition of private savings. After several years of nearly no corporate savings, this component became an important part of total savings reaching an average of almost 10% of Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) during the period 1986–2012. Our results show that the 1984 tax reform, the boost in the marginal productivity of capital and the deepening of the financial market were the main drivers that explain the dramatic increase in corporate savings. We also found that the reduction in personal income tax after the tax reform and the higher income per capita growth helped to explain the increase in household savings, while the structural balance rule helped to explain the increase in public savings.     

企业集团信用风险评估SVM集成分类器的构建与应用

将AdaBoost算法与支持向量机（SVM）相结合,建立了SVM集成分类器,并将之应用于商业银行的企业集团信用风险评估中。实证检验结果表明：SVM集成分类器较单一的SVM方法具有更高的分类准确率。     

Do credit unions have distinct objectives? Evidence from executive compensation structures

Credit unions compete directly with commercial banks in markets for consumer financial services yet receive an exemption from federal corporate income tax. Commercial banks claim that credit unions are no different than banks and that the credit union tax exemption represents an unfair competitive advantage. Credit unions counter that while they offer similar products and services, they differ from commercial banks in terms of structure and mission, given their not-for-profit, cooperative status. In this paper, we test for substantive differences in the objective functions of commercial banks and nonprofit credit unions by comparing CEO compensation structures. Drawing on the relevant principal–agent literature, we provide several arguments to support the hypotheses that credit union boards of directors establish lower-powered incentive contracts with their CEOs relative to similarly sized commercial banks, and offer lower total compensation. We find that credit union CEOs receive approximately 250% less performance-based compensation relative to CEOs of similarly sized community banks. Bank CEOs also earn approximately 15% to 20% more total compensation on average. The results are generally robust to controlling for CEO- and board-level characteristics, local economic conditions, and institution-level indicators of size, growth, complexity, liquidity and risk. The findings suggest important differences in incentive structures and objectives between banks and credit unions.     

Risks, Financing Constraints, and High Savings Ratio in the Rural Economy of China: A Model Incorporating Precautionary Savings and Liquidity Constraints

This paper makes an in-depth investigation on the phenomenon of high savings rate in the rural economy of China between 1978 and 2003. On the basis of precautionary savings theory, we construct a model incorporating the risks, liquidity constrains, and aging population to explain the existence of high savings rate in the rural economy of China. We measure risks with Gini coefficient and marginal propensity to save. We find that these risk indices are positively associated with the higher savings rate and the higher degree of prudence of rural households. Our findings pose an urgency of the reform of rural financial system and the improvement in social security system in the rural economy of China. Translated from Economic Science, 2005, (1) (in Chinese)     

On the complementarity of money and credit

I propose a model where agents choose to conduct their business using two payment instruments, money and bilateral credit. A friction in the timing of transactions rationalizes the use of both instruments and makes it optimal for agents to use money as a means of settlement for credit. Money and credit complement each other. With anticipated inflation, complementarity implies that the credit to money ratio decreases with inflation.     

Consumption dynamics under information processing constraints

This paper studies how “rational inattention” (RI)—a type of information processing constraint proposed by Sims [Sims, C.A., 2003. Implications of rational inattention, Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (3), 665–690]—affects the joint dynamics of consumption and income in a permanent income model with general income processes. Specifically, I propose an analytical approach to solve the multivariate permanent income model with RI and examine its implications for optimal consumption, saving, and welfare. It is shown that RI can affect the relative volatility of consumption and provide an endogenous propagation mechanism that disentangles the short-run and long-run responses of consumption to exogenous income shocks. I also explore how aggregation reduces the impact of the RI-induced endogenous noise on consumption and thus increases the smoothness of aggregate consumption. Finally, I compare RI with four alternative hypotheses (habit formation, signal extraction, robustness, and inattentiveness) by examining their implications for the joint behavior of consumption and income.