中国双向直接投资均衡度的演变特征及对融资约束的影响

研究目标:揭示中国双向直接投资均衡度的时空演变特征，测算区域融资约束，分析中国双向直接投资对融资约束的影响。研究方法:运用动态度和均衡度衡量双向直接投资的流动情况，基于MSAR模型考察不同时期双向直接投资均衡度之间的依赖性。研究发现:IFDI和OFDI相向运动导致中国双向直接投资渐趋均衡，理论层面双向直接投资对融资约束的影响具有不确定性，实证发现在政策扭曲等内生制度安排下双向直接投资均衡度并未缓解融资约束，市场化水平减弱了双向直接投资均衡度对融资约束的负向作用。研究创新:构建双向直接投资均衡度将IFDI和OFDI综合起来；度量区域融资约束；阐明双向直接投资对区域融资约束的影响机理。研究价值:为双向直接投资与融资约束的良性互动提高决策参考。     

Optimizing placement of residential shelters for human trafficking survivors

Residential shelters play a critical role in the stabilization and eventual reintegration to society for trafficked persons and entail a large investment. In the United States, survivors of human trafficking live in every state. However, in 2018 a majority of states lack dedicated residential shelters for trafficking survivors. Even in states with shelters, data suggests that demand greatly exceeds capacity, and significant disparity exists between states with respect to the legislative environment and provision of auxiliary services for survivors. We present an optimization approach to evaluate the societal impact of locating dedicated shelters for trafficking survivors at a regional level. Using concepts from health and social welfare economics, we develop an optimization model that allocates a budget for locating residential shelters in a manner that maximizes a measure of societal impact while respecting budgetary constraints. For our case study, we measure this impact via a societal value quantified by a combination of labor productivity gained, reduction in juvenile arrests, disability-adjusted life years averted, and legislative environment, adjusted for the demand for shelters and the current number of shelters available, less construction and operating costs. We illustrate the utility of the model via our case study that allocates a budget among a candidate set of residential shelters for female sex trafficking survivors in the United States. Via sensitivity analyses on a robust set of uncertain parameters, we present policy implications of shelter placements to support this critical societal concern.     

Flexibility and specialization in question; birth,growth and death rates of Cambridge new technology-based firms 1988–92

Insight into the investment behaviour of firms is central in understanding economic dynamics. A critical question, however, is whether firms provide sufficiently reliable data to enable them to make plausible forecasts at the meso (regional or sectoral) level. This paper analyses Dutch investment forecasts at different levels of aggregation. The central research question is whether entrepreneurs, individually or as a group, make systematic errors in their investment forecasts. A statistical test reveals that investment forecasts are not biased at the aggregated (regional and sectoral) level. At the micro level, however, there is a significant bias. Hence, using aggregated (regional and sectoral) data to test the lack of bias (unbiasedness) of forecasts may lead to the wrong conclusions. Moreover, aggregated investment forecasts may then be an inappropriate source for policy recommendations, despite their seemingly high reliability. This finding may in principle be valid for many European countries, since data collection on investment is organized in similar ways throughout Europe.     

MULTI‐CRITERIA OPTIMIZATION OF REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT POLICY: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS FOR GERMANY

The distribution of European and national aid among 271 German labor market regions is considered as an optimization problem with three targets: (i) interregional equalization of unemployment rates; (ii) minimization of total (national) unemployment; and (iii) maximization of GDP, subject to budget constraints and some administrative restrictions. The analysis of the German program in 2000–2002 shows that the results actually obtained for 6 billion euro required only 241 million euro under optimal planning (4% of the actual budget). Such an inappropriate implementation of active labor market policies can be the cause of low efficiency, often misinterpreted as uselessness. This paper suggests a decision aid for optimal planning and shows that tax returns from the additional GDP due to jobs subsidized can transform regional policy into a winning governmental strategy.     

绿色信贷政策能够抑制企业的风险承担吗？

绿色信贷是桥接金融信用与环保的关键纽带和资源配置的重要抓手。基于2012年银监会颁布《绿色信贷指引》的外生冲击，使用双重差分(DID)探讨绿色信贷政策对企业风险承担的影响。首先，基准回归表明绿色信贷抑制了绿色信贷限制企业的风险承担水平，但政策影响的时滞性和企业的策略性应对使得政策颁布两年后抑制作用才不断增强。其次，融资约束和投资惩罚的中介机制表明，融资约束和投资支出在绿色信贷政策与企业风险承担之间存在遮掩效应，进一步抑制了企业风险承担水平。最后，信息效应和环境规制倒逼效应的调节机制表明绿色信贷政策影响存在非对称性。     

国企分红的投资效应研究——基于投资效率与投资风险的双重视角

如何在企业层面处理好“国企分红”与“促投资”的关系,寻求既能促进投资效率又能规避投资风险的国企分红比例,是当前国有资本经营预算制度改革中的焦点。以2008—2019年沪深A股国有上市公司为样本,采用面板固定效应和Probit模型对国企分红的投资效应问题进行实证分析。研究发现：国企分红比例与非效率投资和投资风险之间呈U型关系,当国企分红比例小于38.89%时,能够有效改善投资效率,同时降低投资风险;当国企分红比例超过38.89%时,随着分红比例的继续提高,投资效率随之下降,同时投资风险显著上升。基于企业异质性的研究表明,国企分红的投资效应因国企规模、行政级别、所属行业的技术特质和竞争程度的不同而存在差异。因此,政府需要充分考虑不同国企的具体情况,有针对性地分类制定国企分红比例,以提高政策的精准性。     

On the speed and boundaries of structural adjustment when fiscal policy is tight

Governments of transition economies are subject to fiscal constraints (e.g. credit constraints). However, exaggerated fiscal discipline might feed into the structural adjustment process. The government designs and times the privatisation programme, yet may find itself in a fiscal squeeze because restructuring moves costs from firms to the public budget. This paper models this problem in a simple dynamic set-up. Several distinct reform strategies, which differ in the speed and level of structural adjustment, are identified. Tight fiscal discipline in early stages of transition may delay or halt privatisation. A different sequencing of policy or different taxation, benefits, and privatisation sales rules, can rectify this problem.     

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS IN DETERMINING LEVELS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT AND INCOME: A Model and Empirical Evidence from Kenya

Exports have long been assumed by many to be the most important variable in driving regional growth, although factors such as government expenditure, investment demand, and remittances, among others, have also been recognized as significant. In addition, supply-side constraints to the promotion of regional growth and development have recently received increased attention in the literature. This paper evaluates the relative importance of exports, investment demand, and remittances, as well as supply-constrained agricultural production, in determining levels of regional output, value added, and household income in a single region in Kenya. The analysis is based on a mixed endogenous/ exogenous model derived from a social accounting matrix (SAM) which allows for incorporation of both demand and supply-side considerations. The paper finds that exports are, in fact, the most important factor in explaining regional output and wage income in the region studied, although not overwhelmingly so. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the importance of supply-constrained agricultural production as a determinant of income at the household level.     

我国实施零基预算改革研究

零基预算能够加强预算管理,提高资金的使用效率。我国零基预算改革还处于起步阶段,仍存在政治体制、技术条件和实施方法上的制约。需加强政治体制改革,理顺各级政府的财政预算管理关系;运用现代化技术手段,建立一套与零基预算相适应的信息系统;推行零基预算与绩效预算相融合,改革和完善基于绩效考核的零基预算编制方法;实现预算公开,构建财政预算的大监督体系。     

Public infrastructure as a determinant of productive performance in China

Public infrastructure investment is an essential part of China’s regional development policy. This raises the question to what degree public infrastructure capital matters for labor productivity in China, at the regional level as well as over time. This paper estimates cost function models of production in industrial enterprises, using province-level data from 1993 to 2003. The estimated rate of return in industrial production is 23–25%, and on average public infrastructure contributes 2–3% points to the growth in labor productivity among these enterprises.     

Dividend policy and investment: Theory and evidence from US panel data

This paper examines the importance of dividend policy and liquidity constraints in the context of the firm's investment behaviour. While early financial literature has argued that dividend policy should be independent of firm investment decisions, recent studies indicate that linkages are probable in a world of imperfect capital markets. This study develops an alternative Q specification which incorporates the actual dividend payment of the firm in order to test the hypothesis of independence. Empirical results suggest that after controlling for the firm's dividend payment, liquidity constraints remain an important determinant of firm investment behavior.     

Personal and regional redistribution through public finance in a federal setting

Following a partial equilibrium approach, this paper studies the effect of fiscal policy on income distribution in Argentina, based on budget information corresponding to the year 2004. Specifically, it aims to provide an empirical answer to a set of questions related to the responsibility of different levels of government (national or provincial) in ensuring the equitable distribution of income; how this responsibility is accomplished in practice, when this function is shared among two or more levels of government; whether an incompatibility arises among the policies from different levels of government; and the effect of fiscal policy on personal and regional income distribution.The main results of the paper are summarized as follows. At the aggregate level, both national and provincial budgets have a redistributive impact on personal income distribution, through a combination of progressive expenditures and (slightly) regressive taxes. Regional redistribution depends on two fiscal tools: the national budget and the revenue sharing regime. The progressive effect of expenditures and taxes interacts with the geographical effect of the revenue-sharing and the national budget, reinforcing progressivity in net-receiving groups and creating a trade-off between progressivity and (negative) regional transfer in net-financing ones. Provincial budgets have more impact than the national budget, both being compatible in pursuing the redistributive goal.     

自贸区设立缓解了企业的融资约束吗？——基于上市公司的经验证据

使用2010—2019年中国上市公司的面板数据,采用多期双重差分法探讨了自贸区设立对企业融资约束的影响。研究发现,自贸区的设立能够缓解企业融资约束,上述结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。进一步的异质性分析发现：自贸区设立对国有企业融资约束的缓解程度强于非国有企业,自贸区设立能显著缓解非高新技术企业融资约束,但对高新技术企业融资约束影响不显著。机制分析结果表明,自贸区政策通过提高企业创新和外商直接投资的路径缓解企业的融资约束,同时金融发展水平的提高在自贸区缓解企业融资约束中发挥了显著的协同作用。研究结论为高水平对外开放的战略背景下缓解企业融资约束提供了有价值的政策依据。     

Macroeconomic effects of the regional allocation of public capital formation

This paper proposes a multi-regional, general equilibrium model with capital accumulation to analyze the economic impact of the spatial distribution of public capital formation. This model is calibrated and solved by using data for the Spanish economy in order to simulate some comparative dynamic exercises of fiscal policy changes. These analyses illustrate the role that public investment plays in generating the existing imbalances in regional development. This is done by computing the spillover effects and the opportunity costs of regional distribution of public investment. Finally, two rankings of regional priorities in public investment can be derived: one based on the criterion of reducing regional disparities, and another based on an efficiency criterion.     

EFFECT OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMIES IN POSTWAR JAPAN

This paper examines the effect of public investment on the regional economies of postwar Japan. It evaluates the effects of efficiency-verses-equity-oriented allocation policies by estimating the aggregate regional production function and calculating the marginal productivity of public capital for each region, using panel data covering the 47 prefectures over the period from 1955 to 2000. The empirical results show that public capital investment has alternated between an allocation policy based on efficiency and one that is based on equity, and, in fact, such investment was used as a policy tool for adjusting income distribution and accelerating economic growth. Numerical simulations are used to analyze the trade-offs between economic efficiency and inter-prefectural equity. The results indicate that in the case of income-elastic labor mobility, an efficiency-oriented allocation policy leads to larger aggregate gross domestic product by promoting both growth and equity simultaneously.     

Energy intensity and directed fiscal policy

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal policy on economy-wide energy intensity within an endogenous growth framework. To this end, we first develop a two-sector (investment good and consumption good) augmented AK model by integrating the Uzawa model with Rebelo’s AK model, and assume that a non-renewable resource is one of the factors of production. Using this framework, we solve the model for the short and long run, identifying the sufficient parameter conditions that ensure higher energy intensity in the investment goods sector. We then introduce a balanced budget government, whose objective is to decrease the economy-wide energy intensity by levying tax on the energy-intensive investment goods sector and subsidizing the consumption goods sector. Contrary to our expectations, we find that this fiscal policy design increases economy-wide energy intensity as it leads to a decline in real GDP without changing total energy consumption. On the basis of this model, we propose the concept of a ‘directed fiscal policy’, which connotes a reduction of the economy-wide energy intensity by following a heterogeneous taxation policy across sectors.     

Entrepreneurship and regional competitiveness: The role and progression of policy

Regions have gained a position at the forefront of the economic development policy agenda. However, the regional approach to economic strategy remains contested. This paper tests the extent to which regional policy in less competitive regions is accounting for issues relating to entrepreneurship and enterprise development as a tool for improving regional competitiveness. It does so by examining policies undertaken by the UK Labour government 1997–2010, drawing on interviews with policy makers and an analysis of relevant policy documents. This paper finds that entrepreneurship policy at the regional level is multidimensional, with policies broadly ranging from those that are either economically or socially driven. Although there is a considerable policy activity in these areas across less competitive regions, enterprise policy making remains relatively undifferentiated across the regions. There are a number of evolutions in regional policy occurring, especially a shift from policies relating to the facilitation of clusters to those focused on developing regional innovation ecosystems. It is found that regional policy makers are under pressure to measure short-term outputs at the expense of long-term nurturing. The paper also finds that there is a tension between using enterprise policy as a tool for improving regional competitiveness or for addressing economic and social disadvantage.     

探析高校基建工程超投资的原因及对策

在高校基本建设的过程中,工程投资预算是保证高校财务科学化管理的重要途径。由于国家财政计划在教育的投入政策规定,大部分的高校需要通过银行贷款获得工程建设的资金。这种情况下尤其需要工程投资的规范化、科学化管理,对工程投资进行严格的控制,将国家投入的资金、通过银行获取的贷款等切实用于高校教育事业的发展,提高工程投资的效益。本文在分析高校基建工程超投资原因的基础上,提出了高校基建工程投资控制的措施。     

产业政策对企业环保投资的影响研究

企业环保投资行为是企业参与环境治理的直接表现,产业政策作为国家宏观调控的手段,在企业履行环境责任过程中发挥着至关重要的作用。基于我国产业政策制度背景,论文以2011-2018年沪市A股重污染行业上市公司为研究样本,实证分析产业政策对企业环保投资的影响。研究发现:产业政策的支持能够促进企业环保投资,这种“正向激励”的作用机制主要通过缓解企业的融资约束体现。论文的结论丰富了现有产业政策微观经济后果研究,拓展了企业环保投资的影响因素。     

Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses

This paper provides a technical survey of recent developments in behavioural microsimulation. We discuss the criteria by which models of labour supply may be chosen for application to behavioural microsimulation, and consider how such models may be augmented to control for fixed costs, child–related work costs, preference heterogeneity and endogeneity in wages. We describe methods by which non–linear budget constraints may be accommodated in estimation, policy simulations and welfare analysis, and discuss how stochastic terms may be factored into the simulation of behavioural responses to a policy shock.