THE IMPACT OF GREEN REVOLUTION ON RICE PRODUCTION IN VIETNAM

The current paper reviewed the development of the Green Revolution in Vietnam, using long‐term regional yield and modern variety adoption statistics, as well as household data collected in 1996 and 2003. The present study indicates that the Green Revolution began in irrigated favorable areas and spread to the less favorable areas in Vietnam such as in other Asian countries. What is unique in Vietnam is that although the Green Revolution ended in the mid‐1980s in the Philippines and Indonesia, it has still been sustained as of 2003. Our analyses revealed that such growth had been supported by continuous improvements of modern varieties by regional research institutes. The varieties imported from China have contributed to the Green Revolution in northern Vietnam and those developed by the International Rice Research Institute in southern Vietnam. The national agricultural research systems have also played a critically important role in developing location‐specific and appropriate technologies.     

Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Crowding In or Crowding Out?

This paper investigates the possible crowding‐in or crowding‐out effect of public investment on private investment in sub‐Saharan Africa. While this relationship has been theoretically and empirically studied in the literature, most studies used traditional panel fixed effects or Generalized Method of Moments estimators which can potentially lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. We employ heterogeneous parameter models, including the Mean Group, the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Model, and the Augmented Mean Group estimators, to incorporate the possibility of slope heterogeneity and the presence of cross‐sectional dependence. Using a large sample of 44 sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1960–2015, we find that on average public investment crowds in private investment in sub‐Saharan Africa. We also find that the impact differs between countries and is higher in countries with a strong private sector.     

Distance to Growing Markets and Sub‐Saharan African Exports*

Abstract: A typical person in sub‐Saharan Africa is a long way from world markets and is further from world markets now than in 1980. This partly reflects slower growth within Africa than for the world as a whole. Despite slower growth in Africa, African exports have become increasingly regionalized. By 2005, a country in Africa typically exported more than twice as much to a country in its own region as would be expected based on economic size and bilateral distance. This regionalization was not present in the early 1980s and has become stronger over time. We find evidence of positive neighborhood effects through exports, but sub‐Saharan countries benefit less from growth in their own region than this typical relationship indicates. Given the small share of exports destined to their neighbors, low‐income countries in sub‐Saharan Africa experience relatively modest export growth from growth in the region. These factors imply that African countries are unlikely to pull each other out of poverty and a regional focus may be less effective than a focus on countries outside of the region.     

THE LEGACY AND CHALLENGE OF FISCAL POLICY IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This paper traces salient aspects of the evolution of fiscal policy in sub‐Saharan Africa since 1960 and highlights the need for further reforms to consolidate the gains of the recent past. The fiscal position of the sub‐Saharan African region as a whole has improved markedly during the past ten years, but most countries still face formidable fiscal challenges. To consolidate the progress made during the past decade and to tackle the remaining problems, sub‐Saharan African policymakers should remain firmly committed to sound fiscal policies.     

Does China Transfer Productivity Enhancing Technology to Sub‐Saharan Africa? Evidence from Manufacturing Firms*

Abstract: This paper considers whether trade between China and sub‐Saharan Africa results in productivity‐enhancing technology transfers to sub‐Saharan African manufacturing firms. As trade flows between countries potentially results in interactions that lead to technological improvements in the production of goods and services, we parameterize the level of total factor productivity for African manufacturing firms as a function of foreign direct investment flow, and for the country in which it operates, trade openness with China, and its interaction with foreign direct investment. With micro‐level data on manufacturing firms in five sub‐Saharan African countries, we estimate the parameters of firm‐level production functions between 1992 and 2004. Our parameter estimates reveal that across the firms and countries in our sample, there is no relationship between productivity‐enhancing foreign direct investment and trade with China. In addition, increasing trade openness with China has no effect on the growth rate of total factor productivity. To the extent that total factor productivity and its growth is a crucial determinant of economic growth and living standards in the long run, our results suggest that increasing trade openness with China is not a long‐run source of higher living standards for sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Food security and structural adjustment: Empirical evidence on the food price dilemma in Southern Africa

This article considers effects of price on food security and the food equation in the developing areas of South Africa. Firstly, the food (or hunger) equation is examined in more detail. Secondly, thefood price dilemma is analysed using empirical data obtained elsewhere in sub‐Saharan Africa. Thirdly, the situation in the developing areas of South Africa is examined. Empirical evidence in sub‐Saharan and Southern Africa accentuates the skewness and concentration in the market participation profile of rural households with respect to especially staples. Supply response to higher prices in these areas is also limited. These findings place the food price dilemma on centre stage in Southern Africa.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth*

Abstract: This paper uses the bias‐corrected least‐squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross‐border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross‐border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub‐Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross‐border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.     

Does Productivity in the Formal Food Sector Drive Human Ebola Virus Infections in Sub‐Saharan Africa?

As the hunting, butchering, processing, and consumption of bushmeat is a potential source of human Ebola virus (EV) infections, the extent to which bushmeat is a substitute for food produced and sold in the formal sector suggests that the relative price of food could matter for the incidence of human EV infections. This paper considers if productivity in the food sector is a driver of human EV infections in sub‐Saharan Africa. We estimate count data specifications of country level human EV infections as a function of food sector productivity in sub‐Saharan Africa over the 1976–2013 time period. Our parameter estimates suggest that if productivity in the food sector was on average 1 per cent higher over the 1976–2013 time period, the incidence of human EV infection would have been 42.5 per cent lower. This is consistent with bushmeat being a substitute for food produced in the formal sector, as food productivity increases lower the price of formal food relative to bushmeat. Our findings suggest that as productivity in the formal food sector is a driver of human EV infections in sub‐Saharan Africa, policy interventions that increase food productivity would enable Millennium Development Goal outcomes related to hunger, disease mitigation, and sustainability of wildlife.     

Institutional Foundations for Shared Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa*

Abstract: The paper examines the dynamically evolving triangular relationships between institutions, growth and inequality in the process of economic development, in order to deepen the understanding of institutional conditions for pro‐poor growth and shared growth. In this context, the paper discusses the institutional conditions found in sub‐Saharan Africa, which may have produced the growth pattern that is unequal and against the poor. The analysis shows that sub‐Saharan African countries require transforming institutions for embarking upon and sustaining a development path which would ensure shared growth in years to come. The paper first evaluates the growth‐inequality‐poverty nexus, as found in the recent literature, which increasingly challenges the trade‐off between growth and equity, as postulated in the traditional theories. Various definitions of pro‐poor growth are discussed and a sharper definition of the concept of ‘shared’ growth is provided. Definitions of institutions are then examined, as well as the triangular inter‐relationships between institutions, inequality and poverty. The paper finally analyses specific institutional conditions found in sub‐Saharan Africa that prevent economies from emerging out of low‐equilibrium poverty traps that are characterized by low economic growth, unequal distribution of income and wealth as well as unequal access to resources and power.     

Accounting for Gender Equality in Secondary School Enrollment in Africa

In addition to analyzing the characteristics of gender equality in secondary education enrollment in Africa, this paper empirically studies the key drivers of gender equality in secondary education enrollment, using cross‐sectional time series data from 1970 to 2010. Our results show that the coefficient associated with the level of real GDP per capita is positive and statistically significant in both the overall Africa sample and in the sub‐Saharan and North African samples. But the quadratic term of real GDP per capita is negative in sign and significant in the overall Africa and sub‐Saharan African estimates. These provide evidence of a hump‐shaped relationship between real GDP per capita and gender equality in secondary education enrollment in Africa. Our results also suggest that higher share of female teachers in secondary schools, increased democracy (at a decreasing rate), higher female share of the labor force, Christian dominance in a country, higher domestic investment rate, and being an oil‐exporting country increase gender equality in secondary education enrollment in the continent. However, higher population growth tends to lower it. The policy implications and lessons of these results are discussed.     

A comparison of Latin American and African economic development with an East Asian twist

There are many parallels between the development of Latin America and Sub‐Saharan Africa. Recent literature on this is reviewed. It is argued in the paper that the key to long‐term development is the shift from inward (import substitution) to outward (export‐oriented) growth. This shift involves both tariff reduction and significant investment in infrastructure and human capital accumulation. Given that much of Latin America (historically) and Sub‐Saharan Africa (currently) has depended or depends on trade taxes for revenue, an outward orientation poses a significant fiscal problem, which makes it extremely difficult to switch to an export‐oriented growth path. East Asian experience points to the importance of broad‐based agricultural growth in making the fiscal transition.     

What Are the Drivers of Fiscal Performance Gaps between Anglophone and Francophone Africa? A Blinder–Oaxaca Decomposition

In this paper, we make use of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition to examine how the quality of budget institutions affects fiscal performance – primary balance and public debt – in sub‐Saharan Africa. To organise our approach, we categorise sub‐Saharan Africa countries according to the two main systems of budgetary institutions: the English‐based system and the French‐based system. The quality of budget institutions is measured through five criteria: centralisation, comprehensiveness, fiscal and procedural rules, sustainability and credibility, and transparency. Our findings show that, on average, Anglophone Africa countries have better budgetary institutions than their Francophone counterparts, and this difference is the main determinant of the fiscal performance gaps between the two groups. These performance gaps are mostly due to the characteristics effect, meaning that the relative poor fiscal performance of Francophone countries is not due to the French‐based system itself but rather to the environment in which it operates. The budget process and procedures in these countries are relatively less comprehensive, sustainable and transparent and that adversely affects their fiscal performance.     

Capital Inflows and Exports Diversification in Sub‐Saharan Africa during the MDGs Era

This paper explores the impact of different forms of capital inflows, including foreign direct investment, foreign aid, portfolio investment, and remittances, on exports diversification in sub‐Saharan Africa during the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) era. We employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to deal with the endogeneity issue. Using a sample of 35 countries over the period 2000–15, it shows that the impact of capital inflows on exports diversification depends on the type of capital. We find evidence that foreign aid, foreign direct investment, and remittances have positive effects on exports diversification, while portfolio inflows negatively affect exports diversification. Moreover, we find that the impact of capital inflows on exports diversification differs across the region of destination of the exported products. This study underscores the important role of international cooperation and capital inflows in sub‐Saharan Africa, and lends support to policies aiming to attract foreign capital.     

Supply‐leading versus Demand‐following Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Three SSA Countries

Abstract: This study investigates empirically the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth in three sub‐Saharan African countries — Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania. The study seeks to answer one critical question: Does financial development in sub‐Saharan African countries exhibit a supply‐leading or demand‐following response? Using three proxies of financial development against real GDP per capita (a proxy for economic growth), the study finds that the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth is sensitive to the choice of measurement for financial development. In addition, the strength and clarity of the causality evidence is found to vary from country to country and over time. On balance, a demand‐following response is found to be stronger in Kenya and South Africa, whilst in Tanzania a supply‐leading response is found to be dominant. The study therefore recommends that for Kenya and South Africa the real sector of the economy should be developed further in order to sustain the development of the financial sector. However, for Tanzania, there is need for further development of the financial sector in order to make the economy more monetized.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE REST OF AFRICA

This paper measures the extent to which South African economic growth is an engine of growth in sub‐Saharan Africa. Results based on panel data estimation for 47 African countries over four decades suggest that South African growth has a substantial positive impact on growth in the rest of Africa, even after controlling for other growth determinants. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.     

Fertility in Sub‐Saharan African Countries with Consideration to Health and Poverty*

Abstract: Fertility has begun to fall in sub‐Saharan Africa but it remains high on average and particularly for a few countries. This paper examines African fertility using a panel data set of 47 sub‐Saharan countries between 1962 and 2003. Fixed and random country effect estimates are made in models where the explanatory variables are suggested by the theory of the demographic transition as modified by Caldwell (1982) . Special attention is paid to the economic status of women, urbanization, the poverty level, and the health of the population including total health expenditures and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. The results support Caldwell's hypothesis and are generally supportive of hypothesis that a fertility transition is occurring. HIV/AIDS is found to have a negative impact on fertility.     

Measurement of Capital Flight: Methodology and Results for Sub‐Saharan African Countries*

Abstract: This paper presents the methodology for the computation of capital flight and reports new estimates of the magnitude and timing of capital flight from 33 sub‐Saharan African countries from 1970 to 2004. Our methodology calculates capital flight as the residual difference between inflows and outflows of foreign exchange recorded in the balance of payments, with corrections for the magnitude of external borrowing, trade misinvoicing, and unrecorded remittances. We find that total capital flight from these countries in this period amounted to $443 billion (in 2004 dollars). With imputed interest earnings, the accumulated stock of flight capital amounted to $640 billion. These numbers exceed these countries’ external debts, which in 2004 amounted to $193 billion, indicating that sub‐Saharan Africa is a net creditor to the rest of the world.     

HOW REVOLUTIONARY IS THE “NERICA REVOLUTION”? EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

A new high‐yielding upland rice variety known as New Rice for Africa (NERICA) has been widely recognized as a promising technology for addressing the food shortage in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there has been no on‐farm yield data to support this optimism. The present study attempts to assess the actual and potential yield of NERICA in Uganda where it has been introduced recently. We found that NERICA's yield is higher (2.5 tons) for farmers who had rice‐growing experience than those who had no previous experience (1.7 tons). These findings strongly indicate that strengthening training, extension, and other supporting systems is the key to the success of the “NERICA revolution” in this country.     

Community‐driven Development: A Viable Approach to Poverty Reduction in Rural Burkina Faso

Abstract: Various efforts by national governments, non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) and international donors have shown limited success in reducing poverty in sub‐Saharan Africa. As a result, poverty is still persistent in most households especially in rural areas. The persistence of poverty on the continent can be in part attributed to the top‐down approach to development adopted by various poverty alleviation programs. This paper focuses on poverty reduction programs in Burkina Faso and argues that a community‐driven approach to development and poverty reduction has the potential of lifting rural populations out of poverty trap.     

Internet Adoption and Financial Development in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria and Kenya

Financial development is influenced by the dynamics of multiple factors which have remained insufficiently explored up to date. In view of this, an attempt is made in this paper to investigate the impact of internet adoption on financial development in sub‐Saharan Africa, using Nigeria and Kenya as case studies. The dynamic ordinary least squares and vector error correction mechanism methods were employed in the study which revealed that the internet, complemented by financial openness, exerted a significant positive impact on financial development in the period 2000–16. The null hypothesis which states that the internet does not encourage financial development is therefore rejected. It follows that the level of financial development in both countries, and indeed most countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, could be enhanced by adopting appropriate policies that encourage more inclusive use of the internet. The policy recommendations of this study therefore include (i) relaxing the stringent requirements for licensing internet operators in order to make more services available for financial transactions, (ii) integrating internet technology into the national infrastructure framework in order to sustain its application, (iii) fostering local skills and expertise that will be maintaining internet infrastructure and (iv) providing a legal framework that protects personal information and ensures responsible usage of internet.