LESSONS FROM THREE DECADES OF GREEN REVOLUTION IN THE PHILIPPINES

The purpose of the current paper is to assess the changing contributions of successive generations of modern varieties of rice (MV) to yield increase and stability and the changes in total factor productivity (TFP) in irrigated, rainfed, and upland ecosystems in the Philippines. We found that the yield increase in irrigated ecosystem has been by far the highest, which can be attributed to the diffusion of pest‐ and disease‐resistant MV. The contribution of MV to yield increase in the rainfed ecosystem has been less significant, but much more compared with that of upland ecosystem. The rainfed and upland ecosystems have experienced an upward trend in yield, albeit slowly, because of the diffusion of improved traditional varieties and MV suitable to adverse production environments. The contribution of MV cum irrigation has accounted for approximately 50% of the growth of TFP in Central Luzon.     

THE IMPACT OF GREEN REVOLUTION ON RICE PRODUCTION IN VIETNAM

The current paper reviewed the development of the Green Revolution in Vietnam, using long‐term regional yield and modern variety adoption statistics, as well as household data collected in 1996 and 2003. The present study indicates that the Green Revolution began in irrigated favorable areas and spread to the less favorable areas in Vietnam such as in other Asian countries. What is unique in Vietnam is that although the Green Revolution ended in the mid‐1980s in the Philippines and Indonesia, it has still been sustained as of 2003. Our analyses revealed that such growth had been supported by continuous improvements of modern varieties by regional research institutes. The varieties imported from China have contributed to the Green Revolution in northern Vietnam and those developed by the International Rice Research Institute in southern Vietnam. The national agricultural research systems have also played a critically important role in developing location‐specific and appropriate technologies.     

INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFED LOWLAND RICE PRODUCTION IN WEST AFRICA: PRESENT STATUS AND POTENTIAL GREEN REVOLUTION

The objective of the current paper is to explore the factors influencing the expansion and intensification of rice production in rainfed lowland sites. The village/lowland‐level data show the following: (1) the expansion of lowland rice cultivation has been driven by population pressure and accessibility to the market; and (2) the adoption of water control technologies is enhanced by the existence of immigrants and accessibility to the market. Rice cultivator data show that investment in water supply canals is influenced by land tenure security and that the canals enhance yield. This suggests that investment in water control technologies in rainfed lowland is necessary to realize a rice Green Revolution. Considering the fairly high average yield already achieved with water control technologies and the vast area of lowlands without water control technologies in rural area, there is a high potential of a rice Green Revolution in rainfed lowland in West Africa.     

ADOPTION AND PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT OF MODERN RICE VARIETIES IN BANGLADESH

Technological progress has helped Bangladesh to achieve self‐sufficiency in rice production in 2001 from a heavy import‐dependence, despite doubling of population and a reduction in arable land since its independence in 1971. As the adoption of modern varieties (MV) of rice is reaching a plateau, particularly for the irrigated ecosystem, an important issue is whether the research system will be able to sustain the growth of production. The present paper addresses the following questions: (i) to what extent farmers have been replacing the old MV with the new MV, and (ii) what has been the impact of the variety replacement on productivity and profitability. How crucial is the continuous research and release of improved rice varieties toward improving farm production and income for farmers comes out as a clear message to policymakers from the current paper.     

An Empirical Analysis of Productivity in Philippine Agriculture, 1974–2000

Using recent agricultural data sets, we estimate a non-neutral and non-homothetic translog variable cost function to empirically investigate Philippine agricultural productivity. Overall, the annual average productivity growth rate is 0.51 percent. The highest productivity level is observed during the post-Green Revolution period (1974–1980). Thereafter, productivity growth shows a discernible decline up until the late 1990s. This indicates that productivity level during the Green Revolution era has not been sustained or paralleled, despite substantial policy changes put in place since 1986 to invigorate the agricultural sector. The government should therefore continue to promote technological progress in Philippine agriculture; however, this may require redirection of its present policy by placing more emphasis on productivity-enhancing investments, such as research and development, irrigation and other infrastructure.     

Long-term Evolution of Productivity in a Sample of Philippine Rice Farms: Implications for Sustainability and Future Research

We investigate long-term productivity trends in a representative intensive rice cropping system using periodic farm level survey data spanning more than 20 years of the Green Revolution in two rice bowls of the Philippines. Estimation of production functions with year dummy variables shows substantial declines in productivity from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. Examination of secondary data shows, however, that the survey years were unrepresentative of long-term trends and were unduly influenced by exogenous yield shocks. Correction for these effects removes the productivity decline, but shows that productivity has stagnated. A renewed emphasis on increasing crop genetic yield potential may be necessary in order to improve productivity and restore the contribution of this important farming system to poverty alleviation.     

Total factor productivity in South African agriculture, 1947‐91

Indices of total factor productivity (TFP) measure aggregate output per unit of aggregate input, providing a guide to the efficiency of agricultural production. This article outlines the relationship between production functions and TFP indices. Then, an index is constructed for South African agriculture for the period 1947‐91. The index shows that TFP grew at an average rate of 1,3 per cent per annum. However, TFP growth has increased since the reforms of the early 1980s. Since capital has been more realistically priced relative to labour, greater productivity growth has gone together with increasing employment, which must have improved social welfare.     

Africa's clientelist budget policies revisited: public expenditure and employment in Kenya,Tanzania and Uganda, 1960–2010

What can be learned about policy prioritization in Africa by examining long‐run trends in public expenditure and employment? Many have contended that Africa's post‐colonial leaders pursued economically unproductive budget policies that prioritized the growth of their patronage networks over socially beneficial spending, resulting in bloated payrolls, persistent deficits, and a large rent‐seeking public service. Using a purpose‐built dataset of annual public expenditure and employment series from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda for 1960–2010 against which to test these assumptions, this article questions whether there was anything exceptional about the growth or composition of East Africa's post‐independence expenditure. All three states grew and contracted in roughly the same periods as other regions of the world, although their contraction after 1980 was particularly marked. Industrial policy and capital investments influenced budget priorities in the early independence era, while military expenditure and debt service payments escalated in the late 1970s. The government wage bill, meanwhile, fell as a proportion of total spending over the same period. To finance employment growth while the wage bill contracted, governments allowed real wages to plummet in the 1970s–90s. In light of these external constraints and legacies, this article questions whether a budget unencumbered by patronage would have looked very different.     

RICE GREEN REVOLUTION IN ASIA AND ITS TRANSFERABILITY TO AFRICA: AN INTRODUCTION

Drawing on the experiences of Asian countries, we attempt to identify the transferability of Asian Green Revolution to sub‐Saharan Africa by examining whether there is a common set of factors affecting rice yields in the two regions. We have attempted to propose the strategy to realize a Green Revolution in sub‐Saharan Africa based on lessons learned from the comparative studies included in this special volume.     

Money,credit, income and prices in sub‐Saharan Africa: Where do we stand?

The study empirically tested the short‐term influence of changes in money and credit on (nominal and real) income and inflation. The stability of this role was tested over three time periods (end of the 1960s, late 1970s and late 1980s) using cross‐sectional data for 26 sub‐Saharan African countries. Significance tests revealed that while the monetary impact on nominal income growth and inflation increased across the three time periods, the relationship between real money and real income growth weakened. Stability tests showed that the role of money shifted significantly for the 1980s in relation to the other two periods.     

Regulation,rent‐seeking,and the Glorious Revolution in the English Atlantic economy

The rapid rise of England's colonial commerce in the late seventeenth century expanded the nation's resource base, stimulated efficiency improvements across the economy, and was important for long‐term growth. However, close examination of the interests at play in England's Atlantic world does not support the Whiggish view that the Glorious Revolution played a benign role in this story. In the decades after the Restoration, the cases of the Royal African Company and the Spanish slave trade in Jamaica are used to show that the competition between Crown and Parliament for control of regulation constrained interest groups on either side in their efforts to capture the profits of empire. Stuart ‘tyranny’ was not able to damage growth and relatively competitive (and peaceful) conditions underpinned very rapid increases in colonial output and trade. The resolution of the rules of the Atlantic game in 1689 allowed a consolidated state better to manipulate and manage the imperial economy in its own interests. More secure rent‐seeking enterprises and expensive wars damaged growth and European rivals began a process of catch‐up. The Glorious Revolution was not sufficient to permanently halt economic development but it was sufficient to slow progress towards industrial revolution.     

Convergence in rural development: evidence from India

We analyze state-level data of rural India for the period 1973–1993. The gain in agricultural productivity as measured by a Tornqvist–Theil TFP index shows wide divergence across states over time. While there has been an overall decline in farm–non-farm employment ratio over the entire period, it has shown an increasing trend in some states from the second half of the 1980s. We explore the issue of convergence in rural development that takes into account both the increase in agricultural productivity and non-farm employment in rural areas. We find that there is a strong tendency to converge over time to the level of Kerala, the leading state in the initial period. The speed of convergence is in the range of other studies for convergence in agriculture only.     

Balance sheet expansion and economic growth in China: Crowd in or crowd out?

Balance sheet expansion is crucial to understand the historic path, current slowdown and future trend of economic growth in China. As the financial system transforms national savings into investment, balance sheet expands simultaneously. According to changing impacts of balance sheet expansion on real economy, economic growth in China from 1998 to 2016 can be divided into the crowd-in stage and the crowd-out stage. In the first stage (1998–2007), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy in, raised TFP dramatically and accelerated economic growth. In the second stage (2008–2016), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy out, with stagnant TFP and decelerated economic growth. Balance sheet expansion has slowed down since 2014, but it continues to exert crowding out effects on China's real economy. We argue that balance sheet expansion is crucial for China's future economic growth. In the long term, structural reforms, especially reforms in the financial system, could increase growth potential significantly. In the short term, financial system reforms should focus on generating sufficient cash flows to boost aggregate demand.     

The Effects of Regional Economic Communities on Industrialization: The Case of COMESA

This paper seeks to establish the contribution of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) programmes in promoting industrialization. It further seeks to establish the link between industrialization and productivity. The paper uses a gravity model to estimate a cross‐sectional time‐series (panel) dataset for the period 2001–2015. The results indicate that membership to COMESA has created large markets and promoted industrialization among member states. However, results also confirm that COMESA member states still heavily trade in industrial intermediates with non‐members. The study further reveals that the share of foreign total factor productivity (TFP) to COMESA's TFP are weaker than expected, which suggests non‐convergence to international knowledge spillovers. The study concludes that COMESA programmes have positively affected industrialization. We therefore recommend that COMESA should continue implementing strategies, policies and programmes that promote industrialization and technology transfer.     

A CLIOMETRIC REVOLUTION IN THE ECONOMIC HISTORY OF KOREA: A CRITICAL REVIEW

Cliometric approaches to the economic history of Korea have emerged as a distinctive trend from the mid‐1990s. They have quickly made profound changes to our understanding of Korea's economic history from 1700 to 1945. The most remarkable include identifying the long‐term decline of agricultural productivity from around 1800, the subsequent upswing in economic development from the late nineteenth century, and the continuing growth during the Japanese colonial era, 1910–45. We survey primarily the Korean language literature that reports the achievements of this cliometric movement and speculate about the future research agenda.     

Green total factor productivity: A re-examination of quality of growth for provinces in China

In this paper we try to assess the quality of growth for provinces in China over the period of 1997–2015. To do so we calculate a set of Green total factor productivity (or GTFP) indexes by incorporating environmental performance variables at the provincial level. A nonparametric approach (Directional Distance Function a la Chung et al., 1997) is adopted in the estimation. Furthermore, we apply bootstrapping method to correct estimation bias and obtain statistical property of the estimated indexes. The GTFP indexes estimated here demonstrate very different trends from the GDP growth rateand standard TFP indexes ignoring environmental outcomes. For the period of interests, when annual GDP growth rate was very high, no steady growth was found in TFP and GTFP, by contrast. The rankings of provinces differ significantly across measures of GDP growth, TFP and GTFP. In addition, our estimates of GTFP trends are also significantly different from findings by other papers of GTFP estimation (Hu et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2010) without bootstrapping procedure.     

Revisiting Growth‐Poverty Relationship: A Medium‐Term Causality Approach

This article examines the potential medium‐term causal relationship between changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and poverty in developing countries during the 1970s–1990s. For this purpose, we use panel data model evaluation techniques to test the out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of competing models. We conclude that the evidence supports the hypothesis that increases in GDP per capita cause unidirectional poverty reduction, measured by the $1/day poverty rate, in the period 1970s–1980s. The results are similar when analysing low‐ and middle‐income countries and mid‐high‐ and very high‐inequality countries separately. However, in the period 1980s–1990s, it is only statistically significant for low‐income countries.     

FDI与中国全要素生产率的变动——基于DEA与协整分析的实证检验

FDI的流入对我国经济发展和技术进步所起到的影响一直是存在较大争论的问题。本文以中国改革开放以来的数据为基础,通过数据包络分析(DEA)方法对我国近年来全要素生产率的变动情况进行了估算,在此基础上,通过建立协整与误差修正模型讨论了FDI的流入对我国全要素生产率变动的影响,并由此认为FDI的流入对全要素生产率的提升不会在短期内得到体现,而更多的表现为一种长期趋势性过程。     

NEW ESTIMATES OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN INDONESIAN MANUFACTURING

This paper estimates new elasticities of value added with respect to labour and capital in Indonesian manufacturing, controlling for the simultaneity problem that potentially exists between the choice of input levels and a productivity shock (such as an increase in productivity due to new production processes), for plant exit, and for quasi-constant unobservable plant characteristics. It does so by applying the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) production function estimator to plant-level value added, fixed assets, labour, and electricity consumption data over the period 1988–95. This methodology allows us to revisit the previously used growth accounting based elasticities, and thereby improves total factor productivity (TFP) estimates. The results show that, in the period under study, aggregate TFP growth in Indonesian manufacturing was higher than had previously been estimated.     

An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Productivity in China (1979–2001)

This study estimates and analyzes provincial productivity growth in China for the period 1979–2001. The Malmquist Index approach allows us to decompose productivity growth into two components, technological progress and efficiency change. Considerable productivity growth was found for most of the data period, but it was accomplished mainly through technological progress rather than efficiency improvement. Although China's capital stock has accumulated at record speed in recent years, our findings show that TFP growth slowed down significantly during 1995–2001. The study thus raises serious questions about whether China's recent growth pattern is consistent with its comparative advantages, and whether its reliance on capital accumulation can be sustained in the long run.