Production subsidies and redistribution

Who gains from stimulating output? We explore a dynamic model with production subsidies where the population is heterogeneous in one dimension: wealth. There are two channels through which production subsidies redistribute resources across the population. First, poorer agents gain from a rise in wages, since—to the extent there is an operative wealth effect in labor supply—they work harder. Second, because a current output boost will raise consumption today relative to the future, thus lowering real interest rates, poor agents gain in relative terms since their income is based less on interest income. We examine optimal redistribution from the perspective of an arbitrary consumer in the population. We show that, if this consumer has commitment at time zero to set all present and future subsidy rates, and for a class of preferences that admits aggregation in wealth, then output stimulation, and hence redistribution, will only occur at time zero; after that, subsidies are zero. A byproduct of our analysis of this environment is a median-voter theorem: with direct voting over subsidy sequences at time zero, the sequence preferred by the median-wealth consumer is the unique outcome. We also study lack of commitment, since interest-rate manipulation is associated with time inconsistency. We analyze this case formally by looking at the Markov-perfect (time-consistent) equilibrium in a game between successive identical decision makers (e.g., the median agent). Here, subsidies persist—they are constant over time—and are more distortionary than under commitment. Moreover, whereas under commitment asset inequality changes initially—in favor of the consumer who decides on policy—it does not under lack of commitment.     

Capital Gains and Income Arising from Nonrenewable Resources

Should capital gains be included in income arising from nonrenewable resources? In the present paper, I show that capital gains from a nonrenewable resource can be divided into two terms: real price change effects and real interest rate change effects. By application of sectoral income theory developed by Asheim and Wei (Environ Res Econ 42:65–87, 2009), only the former term is part of real income of the resource and the latter term should not be included. This result is significant in the sense that all change in real resource wealth can be included as part of real income only if future real interest rates are assumed to be constant. Hotelling rule always implies that capital gains from nonrenewable resources coincide with real interests on resource wealth; net investment generated from the resource cancels out current cash flow from the resource; and real income comes from price change effects.     

A Post-Keynesian Response to Piketty's ‘Fundamental Contradiction of Capitalism’

In Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas Piketty presents a rich set of data that deals with income and wealth distribution, output-wealth dynamics and rates of return. He also proposes some ‘laws of capitalism’. At the core of his argument lies the ‘fundamental inequality of capitalism’, an empirical regularity stating that the rate of return on wealth is greater than the growth rate of the economy. This simple construct allows him to conclude that increasing wealth (and income) inequality is an inevitable outcome of capitalism. While we share some of his conclusions, we will highlight some shortcomings of his approach based on a Cambridge post-Keynesian growth-and-distribution model. The paper makes four points. First, r?>?g is not necessarily associated with increasing inequality in functional distribution. Second, Piketty succumbs to a fallacy of composition when he claims that a necessary condition for r?>?g is that capitalists save a large share of their capital income. Third, post-Keynesians can learn from Piketty's insights about personal income distribution and incorporate them into their models. Fourth, we reiterate the post-Keynesian argument that a well-behaved aggregate production function does not exist and cannot explain income distribution.     

Inventory accumulation and expectations of real income,inflation and interest rates

A model is developed and tested to relate three categories of inventory accumulation to expectations of real income, inflation and interest rates through anticipated real corporate wealth effects. Expected future inflation leads firms to accumulate more inventories in advance financing them by means of ‘liquid’ assets to offset an anticipated loss of real wealth. Expected increases in interest rates have an impact on inventory accumulation opposite to that of expected future inflation. Past wealth effects are also allowed for by means of the accelerator principle. Finally, the growth rate of real income generally has a signifiant influence on inventory accumulation.     

Macroeconomic determinants of wealth inequality dynamics

The evolution of wealth inequality over the long run depends on income growth, inflation, and interest rates. In this paper, we examine, in a dynamic setting, the effect of these three macroeconomic variables on wealth inequality in the United States over the periods 1929–2009 and 1962–2009. The results show that these macroeconomic factors explain a significant amount of the changes in wealth inequality. The results indicate that increases in inflation and income growth contribute positively to net wealth shares of adults in the bottom 50% and middle 40% of the wealth distribution, leading to decreases in overall wealth inequality. Interestingly, the results show increases in interest rates contribute to lower wealth inequality in the U.S. although this result does not hold across all the inequality measures.     

Editorial

Conclusion We keenly feel the loss of our friend, Murray N. Rothbard. We shall strive to follow the path he so ably blazed. Although none of us ever studied formally with Murray, he was our intellectual guide and mentor. He will be sorely missed.Co-editors of theReview of Austrian Economics are: Walter Block, associate professor of economics at The College of the Holy Cross, Hans-Hermann Hoppe, professor of economics at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and Joseph T. Salerno, associate professor of economics at the Lubin School of Business, Pace University.     

The property income share and the effect of capital risk on consumption

A two-period model is used to show that when capital income is a significant fraction of the present value of wealth, it may not be the case that increasing risk increases present consumption. Indeed with the case of an individual who borrows in the first period, consumption necessarily decreases as uncertainty about the future interest rate rises.     

Inflation Expectations, Interest Rates and Arbitrary Income Transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over‐predicted and too low when they are under‐predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.     

WEALTH HOLDINGS AND POVERTY STATUS IN THE U.S.

Families below the poverty line are better off in terms of wealth than income. In 1962, the ratio of mean income between families below and above the poverty line is 0.19 and the ratio of mean wealth is 0.29. The corresponding ratios for 1983 are 0.16 and 0.19. On average, the elderly poor are better off in terms of wealth than the younger poor, particularly relative to their own income. However, the poor have become worse off in terms of wealth between 1962 and 1983, when their real income grew by 6 percent and their real wealth declined by 11 percent. The inclusion of pension and social security wealth in the household portfolio narrows the wealth gap between the poor and non-poor, particularly for families under 65 years of age. Alternative poverty rates are also calculated based on the inclusion of annuity flows from wealth in household income. The reduction in the poverty rate between 1962 and 1983, from 21 to 15 percent on the basis of the official rate, is considerably lower with these alternative definitions.     

Class warfare American style

The idea of class warfare, which originated with Karl Marx, frightens Americans. But the form of class warfare that exists in America is not Marxian in nature. Rather, its source is hard-right conservatives, who have stood Marx on his head, using the power of government and power in the marketplace to shift the distribution of income and wealth increasingly in favor of those at the top of the income ladder. The shift toward greater inequality has accelerated since 1973. Changes in taxes to favor those at the top have been primarily responsible for this. Turning this trend around rests with heterodox economists, as mainstream economics has no interest in wealth and income distribution. The first step is to restore faith in activist government. Paper given at the Planery Session of the Eighth World Congress of Social Economics, College of Charleston, Charleston, South Carolina, July 31, 1996.     

Wealth effects on consumption in financial crises: the case of Norway

A dynamic consumption function, where consumption in the long run is determined by households’ disposable income and wealth, has been superior to the Euler equation in explaining the development of Norwegian aggregate consumption over several decades. This period covers the years of financial deregulation in the mid 1980s, the banking crisis around 1990 following the deregulation and the current international financial crisis. In the current version, long run consumption is homogeneous in income and wealth and there is also a significant effect from after-tax real interest rates. A change in the correlation pattern between real interest rates and wealth, which is related to a change in the monetary policy regime, is the reason why both variables need to be included in the long run relationship in order to explain the development over the period 2005q1–2008q4.     

Redistributive policy,inequality and growth

Does redistribution increase inequality? Is inequality harmful for growth? Both questions have recently been addressed in a number of single-tax models. In this paper, I examine the relationship between policy, growth and inequality when income and inherited wealth can be taxed at different rates. In the model, parents accumulate human capital and a return-bearing, storable good in order to increase the quality of their children. Inequality arises because the learning ability of children is stochastic. Redistributive labor income taxation has a negative impact on short- and long-run growth while taxation of inherited stocks increases growth. Effects of both taxes on income inequality are ambiguous. A switch from income to inheritance taxation may increase average utility of all generations involved. I calculate a structure-induced equilibrium of the political process by means of a stochastic simulation of the model. In the short run initial wealth-inequality can stimulate growth, while initial inequality of the endowment with human capital is harmful for growth.     

不确定性条件下的房地产价格决定:随机模型和经验分析

本文通过构造一个随机最优控制模型,分析了不确定性环境下房地产价格的决定因素。理论结果与经验证据显示,房地产价格受按揭贷款额度、按揭贷款利率、居民财富等多种因素的影响。我们还检验了近年来央行为抑制房地产价格上涨过快所实施加息政策的效果。实证结论表明,抵押贷款利率对房地产价格的影响虽然具有统计显著性,但是它缺乏经济显著性。在短期内,抵押贷款利率工具对控制房价的实际作用不明显,我国最近几年来央行所颁布的加息政策缺乏预期的效果。另外,由于居民适应性预期的作用,房地产价格自身的变动冲击是导致房地产价格上涨的主要因素,居民收入虽然也在一定程度上导致了房地产价格的上涨,但是其作用较小。     

Uninsured idiosyncratic investment risk and aggregate saving

This paper augments the neoclassical growth model to study the macroeconomic effects of uninsured idiosyncratic investment, or capital-income, risk. Under standard assumptions for preferences and technologies, individual policy rules are linear in individual wealth, ensuring that the equilibrium dynamics for aggregate quantities and prices are independent of the wealth distribution. The analysis thus remains highly tractable despite the incompleteness of markets. As compared to complete markets, the steady state is characterized by both a lower interest rate and a lower capital stock when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is higher than the fraction of private equity in total wealth. For empirically plausible parameterizations, this condition is easily satisfied, and the reduction in aggregate saving and income is quantitatively significant. These findings contrast with Bewley models, where idiosyncratic labor-income risk leads to higher aggregate saving and income.     

Capital in the Twenty-First Century: Reinterpreting the fundamental contradiction of capitalism

At a theoretical level this article discusses Piketty’s hypothesis that the distribution of income and wealth tends to become more concentrated over time when the rate of return on capital is greater than the growth rate of real output. We develop a post Keynesian model of growth and distribution showing that once capital is differentiated from wealth, the increase in income and wealth concentration actually occurs when the rate of valorization of financial and real estate assets is greater than the growth rate of real output, and that this situation may be triggered by financial liberalization.     

Wealth inequality and credit markets: evidence from three industrialized countries

Economic theory predicts that changes in the distribution of wealth in an economy affect real interest rates if capital markets are imperfect. We investigate this link for the US, the UK, and Sweden, using multivariate time series analysis that explicitly allows for feedback effects between wealth inequality and real interest rates. Our estimates yield that, over the course of the twentieth century, decreases in wealth inequality led to significant declines in real interest rates. Our results therefore point to the importance of capital market imperfections that arise from moral hazard. They put to question the empirical relevance of a negative interest rate effect of inequality that may arise in variants of these models with high inequality, heterogeneous agents or adverse selection.     

The Uneasy Case for the Flat Tax

Social contract theories assume thatbecause personal security and private property are at risk ina state of nature, citizens will agree to grant Leviathan a monopolyof violence. But what is to prevent Leviathan from turning onhis citizens once they have lain down their arms? The socialcontract leaves citizens worse off unless Leviathan can fetterhimself, as constitutional democracies seek to do. Self-bindingfetters are hard to find. We suggest that schemes of progressivetaxation, in which marginal tax rates increase with taxable income,may be useful incentives to realign Leviathan's incentives withthose of his citizens. Income taxes give Leviathan an equityclaim in his state's economy, and progressive taxes give hima greater residual interest in upside payoffs. Leviathan willthen demand higher side payments from interest groups beforehe imposes value-destroying regulations.     

Family Income and Wealth,Youth Unemployment and Active Labour Market Policies

This paper studies some features of unemployment in Italy using cross section individual micro data. Since unemployment is particularly harsh with respect to youths, interest is focused on 15-29-year-old youngsters. The analysis is carried out using standard logit models and the results show that personal and family characteristics play an essential role in shaping youth activity and unemployment rates of short and long duration, together with product market conditions and labour market features. In particular, the income effect seems relevant for participation decisions, while the family wealth helps in reducing youth unemployment. Various policy instruments might be able to reduce youth unemployment, especially if these instruments are targeted through means-testing on family income and wealth and through a proper distinction between the first job seekers and the strictly unemployed.     

An essay on the Life Cycle: Characterizing intertemporal behavior with uncertainty,human capital,taxes, durables,imperfect capital markets,and non-separable preferences

This paper formulates a general characterization of a household's portfolio choice and savings behavior in an environment with uncertain future interest rates, prices, wages, and factors influencing tastes. Savings may be invested in three types of assets: financial assets; human capital, which is non-tradable; and consumer durables, in which investment may be partially irreversible. Risk-return relations determine the optimal allocation of resources across assets at a point in time. The optimal intertemporal allocation of resources is determined by a restriction on the planned growth rate for the marginal utility of after-tax wealth, where growth rates depend on rates of time preference and measures of long-term riskless rates of interest. Given special assumptions, this marginal utility follows a martingale process as a consequence of optimizing behavior. Pricing formulae are developed for evaluating shifts in uncertain future income, wage, and price profiles. The relations characterizing portfolio and savings behavior presented here do not rely on particular distributional assumptions; they account for all forms of uncertainty including wage uncertainty induced by human capital investment; they allow for the non-marketability of assets; and the main results apply for very general functional form assumptions for preferences. In later sections, results are extended to incorporate income taxes and to account for a wide variety of imperfections in asset markets.     

Contrived desires,affluence, and welfare: J.K. Galbraith's Pigovian redistribution argument reconsidered

I argue that John Kenneth Galbraith's theory of the “dependence effect” in The Affluent Society provides a way to rescue A.C. Pigou's argument for wealth redistribution from a powerful objection. The objection is based on the unprovability of statements making interpersonal comparisons of utility. Galbraith's dependence effect theory allows him to present a version of the Pigovian argument that requires no such statements to be made. I argue that Galbraith's main piece of advocacy in The Affluent Society was for income redistribution, despite the fact that he claimed to be in favour of greater spending in the public sector rather than redistribution as such. I then show how my reading of the dependence effect theory helps to defend it against objections from Hayek and Rothbard. I end by discussing what improvements in economics a proper test of the theory would require and showing how my reading of it helps to reveal the ongoing importance of The Affluent Society to the understanding of political economy.