产业内贸易对中国技能 工资差距的影响

本文试图考察产业内贸易对技能工资差距的影响,理论分析表明：它随劳动力条件的变化而变化,在劳动力无限供给条件下它取决于技术劳动力的绝对需求,由于产业内贸易必能刺激技术劳动力的绝对需求,因此必然会扩大工资差距。但在劳动力条件转向有限供给后,它又取决于技术劳动力的相对需求,而产业内贸易未必使之扩大,特别是对两类劳动力替代弹性较大的部门来说,可能会使技术劳动力的相对需求下降,并使技能工资差距收缩。本文基于中国33个产业的5年面板数据验证了上述假说。     

Trade,Wages, and Specific Factors*

In this paper, we use a multisector specific‐factors model with sector‐specific capital and two mobile factors, skilled and unskilled labor, to examine the effects of trade, technology, and factor endowments on the skill premium in US manufacturing industries. Based on this model and data for the US manufacturing sector from 1958–96, we calculate changes in the skill premium and then carry out a decomposition to identify the changes caused by product price changes (trade), technological progress, labor, and capital endowment changes. The decomposition reveals that trade effects, working through product price changes, caused the skill premium to increase moderately. Changes in capital endowments (new investments) had a positive effect on the skill premium, with the strongest impact during the 1980s, while the effect of technological change on the skill premium varied over time. Finally, changes in relative labor endowments had a negative effect on the skill premium.     

International Outsourcing and the Sector Bias: New Empirical Evidence

Considering labor market effects of international outsourcing on more disaggregated industry levels, a sector bias appears showing that low skilled labor receives a wage premium when international outsourcing takes place in low skill‐intensive industries. However, there is no empirical evidence supporting this pattern. Applying a panel data analysis for Germany, this paper provides new empirical evidence for the existence of the sector bias of international outsourcing: significant results confirm the decreasing wage gap if international outsourcing takes place in low skill‐intensive industries. If international outsourcing takes place in high skill‐intensive industries, the wage gap increases.     

Inter- and intracountry effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on wages and economic growth

This paper aims to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on technological knowledge, wage inequality, and economic growth, by proposing a Direct-Technical-Change model with two economies, an Innovative and other Follower. Six hypotheses are considered: (i) decrease in the unskilled-labor supply, (ii) decrease in the absolute advantage of unskilled labor, (iii) decrease in the intensity of the unskilled sector, (iv) hypothesis (i) combined with a lower decrease in the skilled-labor supply, (v) hypothesis (ii) combined with a lower decrease in the absolute advantage of skilled labor, (vi) all the variations previously considered. By comparing the steady states before and after the shock, we find an increase in the technological-knowledge bias that favors the skill-intensive sector, which positively affects the skill premium. However, in hypotheses (i) and (iv), the decrease in the relative supply of unskilled labor dominates the effect on the skill premium, which thus decreases. The economic growth rate is always penalized except for hypothesis (iii). Hypotheses (ii) and (iv) are undesirable because they increase wage inequality and penalize economic growth. Governments should support innovative activity, the engine of technological-knowledge progress, and thus economic growth, but with caution not to exacerbate the skill premium.     

Capital–Skill Complementarity: Does Capital Composition Matter?

We estimate the effect of capital composition on the size of capital–skill complementarity and the skill wage premium. Disaggregating the capital stock into different types according to technological content, we find that: capital is more of a q‐complement to skilled labor than to unskilled labor; the higher the technological component of capital, the larger the size of the relative q‐complementarity between capital and skilled labor; and replacing non‐technological with technological capital might increase the skill wage premium by about 9 percent. Our results highlight that changes in capital composition matter for understanding changes in the skill wage premium.     

Capital-skill complementarity and biased technical change across US sectors

The goal of this paper is two-fold. First, we reexamine the evidence for the capital-skill complementarity (CSC) and the skill-biased technological change (SBTC) hypotheses at the sectoral level in the US economy for the period 1970–2005. Second, we quantify their effect on the evolution of the wage skill premium. To do so, we estimate a translog model with three production factors (skilled labor, unskilled labor, and capital) for different sets of industry aggregates suggested by the literature. At the aggregated level, we find that both CSC and SBTC explain a substantial part of the observed change in the skill premium. The CSC hypothesis also receives support across sectors, although SBTC often explains a larger part of the premium change. We also find that the relevance of CSC increases with the level of aggregation of the data. Besides, when we disaggregate capital into ICT and non-ICT, our results suggest that often ICT capital is not the primary source of CSC. However, ICT-CSC is the most important driver of the skill premium in specific sectors, such as financial and business services.     

Why did wage inequality increase? Evidence from urban India 1983–99

Since the start of the economic reform in 1991, there have been serious concerns regarding the increasing income inequality in India. However, no studies have analyzed how and why the inequality has been accelerated. This study aims to fill these knowledge gaps. The main findings are: (1) The wage inequality in urban India started increasing before 1991; (2) The increase in the wage inequality was mainly attributable to increases in the returns to skills; (3) The accelerating skill premium was due to increases in the demand for skilled labor. The demand shift is attributed to skill-biased technological changes within industries.     

A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON SKILL SHORTAGES AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN NEW ZEALAND*

Qualification and occupation‐based measures of skilled labour are constructed to explain the skill premium – the wage of skilled labour relative to unskilled labour in New Zealand. The data exhibit a more rapid growth in the supply of skilled labour than the skill premium, and a very large increase in the real minimum wage over the period from 1986 to 2005. We estimate the rate of increase in the relative demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution. The data are consistent with skill shortages and a skill‐bias technical change. We examine the effects of the minimum wage, capital complementarity, and the exchange rate on the skill premium. We also test whether the demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution varied across industries and over time.     

外包与工资差距:基于工业行业数据的实证研究

笔者以Feenstra等人的三要素模型为基础,分析了国际外包影响发达国家及发展中国家熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间工资差距的理论机制,运用我国工业行业面板数据,实证检验了外包对我国工业行业总体及分部门工资差距的影响。结果表明:外包和技术进步对我国工业行业熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间工资差距的扩大均存在明显的正效应,但外包对劳动力资源密集型部门和中等技术部门的影响效应相对更强。     

Green technological progress,agricultural modernization,and wage inequality: Lessons from China

Green technological progress (GTP) is crucial for environmental protection and economic growth in China. Over the past decades, China made huge GTP which exerts a far-reaching consequence on economic and social development. However, a paucity of research investigates the distributional effect of GTP. Meanwhile, we incorporate agricultural producer service sector into a three-sector general equilibrium model to reflect the modernization of small-scale agriculture. The agricultural producer service sector that acts as an intermediate sector can facilitate the utilization of intermediate inputs indirectly. To desalinate this process, a two-layer vertical production structure is established: parts of manufacturing goods are utilized by the service sector, outputs of which are intermediate inputs that could substitute labor in agriculture. Theoretical analysis shows that GTP increases both wage of skilled labor and unskilled labor. Nevertheless, GTP generates a greater impact on the wage of skilled labor than unskilled labor, leading to widening income disparity. Then, we examine the impact of GTP on wage inequality using a balanced panel data covering 30 provincial units in China during 2000–2019. In line with our theoretical conjecture, we find strong supportive evidences that GTP significantly widens the wage inequality.     

Unemployment,Wage Inequality and International Factor Movement in the Presence of Agricultural Dualism

This paper investigates how the international factor movements affect the unemployment and skilled–unskilled wage inequality with the existence of a modern agricultural sector. Our research has the new feature that we not only consider that the rural labor migrates to the urban sector but also to the modern agricultural sector. The main conclusions are that the unskilled labor outflow certainly decreases the wage inequality and unemployment rate and the influences that skilled labor movement and capital inflow have on wage inequality and unemployment rate are dependent on the factor intensity between the urban and modern agricultural sectors.     

Free trade, factor returns, and factor accumulation

A model of development is studied in which physical capital and unskilled labor are good substitutes, and skilled labor is complementary to the resulting aggregate. Growth in a closed economy is compared with two open regimes. Inflows of physical capital only reduce the interest rate and raise both wage rates. The skilled wage rises more sharply, however, increasing the skill premium and accelerating human capital accumulation. Full integration with a larger and more developed neighbor also reduces the interest rate and raises both wage rates, but in this case the skill premium falls and human capital accumulation changes very little.     

Technology and labor regulations: theory and evidence

This paper shows that different labor market policies can lead to differences in technology across sectors in a model of labor saving technologies. Labor market regulations reduce the skill premium and as a result, if technologies are labor saving, countries with more stringent labor regulation, which bind more for low skilled workers, become less technologically advanced in their high skill sectors, but more technologically advanced in their low skill sectors. We then present data on capital-output ratios, on estimated productivity levels and on patent creation, which tend to support the predictions of our model.     

Skilled–unskilled wage inequality: A general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a static three sector competitive general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which skilled labour is mobile between a traded good sector and a non-traded good sector and unskilled labour is specific to another traded good sector. The capital is perfectly mobile among all these three sectors. We examine the effects of change in different factor endowments and of globalization on skilled–unskilled wage inequality. We find that the effect of a change of a factor endowment on wage inequality depends on the factor intensity ranking between two skilled labours using sectors and on the relative strength of the marginal effects on demand for and supply of non-tradable good. We also find that a decrease in the price of the product produced by skilled (unskilled) labour using traded good sector lowers (raises) the skilled–unskilled wage inequality.     

Skilled-unskilled wage inequality and unemployment: A general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a static three sector competitive general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which skilled labor is mobile between a traded good sector and the non-traded good sector and unskilled labor is specific to another traded good sector. Capital is perfectly mobile among all these three sectors. We introduce involuntary unemployment equilibrium in both the labor markets and explain unemployment using efficiency wage hypothesis. We examine the effects of change in different factor endowments and prices of traded goods on the unemployment rates and on the skilled-unskilled relative wage. Also, we introduce Gini-Coefficient of wage income distribution as a measure of wage income inequality; and show that a comparative static effect may force the skilled-unskilled relative wage and the Gini-Coefficient of wage income distribution to move in opposite directions in the presence of unemployment.     

Anti‐immigration policy in the destination country and skilled–unskilled wage inequality in a source economy with or without unemployment

This paper is aimed at theoretically examining the consequence of the anti‐immigration policy adopted in the destination country on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in a source nation using a couple of two‐sector, specific‐factor general equilibrium models in both the presence and absence of unemployment. Emigration requires incurring some capital cost for professional skill formation on the part of every prospective emigrant that adds to the opportunity cost of emigration. The authority of the destination country determines the number of visas to be granted and hence directly controls the magnitude of skilled emigration from the source country. In the migration equilibrium, the expected skilled wage income abroad is equal to the opportunity cost of emigration. In both the presence and absence of unemployment of unskilled labor, the outcome of the policy on the wage inequality crucially hinges on both the magnitude of the fixed cost of emigration and the technological factors. In the specific‐factor Harris–Todaro model, the degree of imperfection in the unskilled labor market is an additional factor. Finally, some policy recommendations have been made for protecting the interest of the poor unskilled workforce.     

Impact of Chinese growth and trade on labor in developed countries

This paper examines the impacts of growth in China's economy and trade on the skill premium of labor in developed countries. We utilize a unique global dataset that disaggregates workers by occupations to identify impacts across labor categories with different skill sets, complementing the widely used GTAP Data Base in the CGE framework offered by the GTAP model. To study the impacts of China's fast-paced growth, we model the counterfactual, i.e., what if China grew and opened at a more modest rate; we then compare this baseline with China's actual growth. Results indicate that a strong rise in manufacturing exports from China to the US impacts output and employment in the US. The US shifts its production away from light manufacturing sectors to more service-oriented sectors that also tend to engage higher skilled labor. There is a small decrease in the real wages of unskilled labor and a rise in the real wages of skilled labor. Interestingly, not all categories of unskilled labor lose, rather those that are more directly linked with manufacturing sectors are impacted; unskilled ‘service and shop workers’ and the unskilled ‘agricultural workers, machine operators, assemblers, craft workers, and others’ observe a small decline in real wages, while the impact on unskilled ‘clerks’ is insignificant. For all categories of skilled workers, there is an increase in real wages primarily driven by the shift in production to services and high-skilled labor intensive categories, resulting in the rising skill premium. Hence disaggregating the labor data provides greater depth on the understanding of the differential impacts on domestic workers resulting from trade, and thereby guides policy on how these differential impacts can be smoothed through redistribution of benefits. Consistent with other study findings, there is a positive impact on overall growth and welfare in the US, EU and Australasia.     

贸易自由化、有偏的学习效应与发展中国家的工资差异

本文构建了一个模型来研究贸易自由化对熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力工资差异的影响,从而解释发展中国家工资差异之谜。在贸易自由化之后,发展中国家接触和学习到相对多的与熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识,因此,和生产与非熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识相比,生产与熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识的生产力水平上升相对较多。也就是说,学习效应是有偏的。因为技术知识的生产是熟练劳动力密集型的,所以学习效应会导致对熟练劳动力需求的增加,扩大工资差异。同时,有偏的学习效应会使技术进步更偏向于技能密集型,从而进一步导致对熟练劳动力需求的增加,扩大工资差异。     

A Schumpeterian North–South Growth Model of Trade and Wage Inequality*

The paper presents a dynamic general‐equilibrium model of interindustry North–South trade that is used to analyze the effects of trade liberalization on the Northern wage distribution. Both countries have a low‐tech sector where consumer goods of constant quality are produced by use of unskilled labor. The North also has a high‐tech sector that employs skilled labor and features a quality‐ladder model structure with endogenous growth. Both innovation and skill acquisition rates are endogenously determined. In a balanced trade equilibrium, it is found that Southern‐originated (Northern‐originated) trade liberalization leads to an increase (decrease) in Northern wage inequality both between skilled and unskilled workers and within the group of skilled workers. The endogenous change in the Southern terms of trade determines the direction of change in unskilled wages in both the North and the South.     

Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for effects of factor-biased technical progress on economic growth and employment

With factor-biased technical progress described as labor-saving and skill-biased technical changes, there are concerns that technological innovation can lead to unemployment and widen inequality in the economy. This study explores impacts of factor-biased technical changes on the economic system in terms of economic growth, employment, and distribution, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that technological innovation contributes to higher level of economic growth with productivity improvements. However, our analysis suggests that economic growth accompanied by skill- and capital-biased technical progress disproportionately increases demand for capital and high-skilled labor over skilled and unskilled labor. This shift in the value-added composition is found to deepen income inequality, as more people in higher income groups benefit from skill premium and capital earnings. Our results suggest that policymakers should prepare a wide range of policy measures, such as reforms in educational programs and taxation systems, in order to ensure sustainable growth.