Equitable fiscal consolidations

Empirical research has uncovered an equity-efficiency trade-off in alternative fiscal consolidation strategies. Spending-based adjustments are associated with more limited output losses but greater inequality than tax-based adjustments. Moreover, spending-based adjustments are less likely to be reversed, but an increase in inequality reduces the likelihood of achieving a successful consolidation. We investigate the issue of designing a debt consolidation plan which is achieved through a reduction in public consumption and yet is equitable because temporary targeted transfers and tax reductions stabilize consumption of the poorer part of the population. This causes a limited slow-down in the pace of debt reduction because fiscal multipliers associated to the tax/transfer policies are large.     

The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending

ABSTRACT

In response to increasing debt paths, governments often implement fiscal consolidation programs. This paper studies the impact of these programs on the composition of government spending. System-GMM estimations performed on a sample of 53 developed and emerging countries over 1980–2011 reveal that fiscal consolidations significantly reduce the government investment-to-consumption ratio, i.e. a composition effect. Robust to a wide set of tests, including when using the narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidations, this significantly stronger contraction of government investment with respect to government consumption is at work particularly when debt is high and in the low phase of the economic cycle. Therefore, in such contexts, fiscal consolidations aimed at short-run stabilization may hurt the economy in the long-run through their detrimental effect on public investment, calling for a reflection upon how they could be re-designed to allow avoiding such undesirable consequences.     

Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity

This study provides new evidence on how labour market rigidities affect the transmission of fiscal consolidations using a sample of 17 OECD countries. Owing to a novel empirical approach, the outcomes of consolidations are modelled as a function of employment and wage rigidities. The evidence confirms that tax-based consolidations are distortionary, while expenditure-based consolidations have wealth effects. These effects are then magnified by flexible employment and rigid wages, while they are moderated by rigid employment and flexible wages. This indicates that labour market conditions influence how fiscal consolidation is propagated in the economy by affecting both the magnitude and the transmission channels of consolidation plans. This result has crucial policy implications and suggests that the design of consolidation plans should account for the labour market structure.     

The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures

This paper analyses how the functional components and sub-components of government expenditures are affected by fiscal consolidations. A fixed-effects estimator is employed over a panel of 15 European Union countries during the period 1990–2012. The results show that spending on public services increases during fiscal consolidations, while spending on defence, public order, health, education and social protection is significantly cut. A more disaggregated analysis proves that fiscal consolidations are harmful for important social expenditures, in particular, for those related to citizens’ safety, health assistance, social protection and investment in human capital. This evidence is even stronger in a particular group of countries, known in the literature as PIIGS. Hence, fiscal consolidations can have important implications on the living standards of the more economically vulnerable citizens.     

Fiscal policy in the US: Sustainable after all?

The sustainability of US public debt has been widely discussed since the Great Recession. Using annual data since 1940, we estimate and compare different specifications of fiscal rules. Estimates of constant-parameter fiscal rules show no evidence of sustainability. This may be due to the instability of government's behaviour over time. Thus, we estimate a Markov-switching fiscal rule in order to identify periods of unsustainable and sustainable fiscal policies. First, we show that the government stabilizes public debt only periodically. Second, during these periods, the government's reaction is sufficiently tight to stabilize public debt over the entire horizon. We conclude that a relatively short-lived but tight fiscal contraction can be sufficient to ensure long-run US debt sustainability.     

Comparative analyses of fiscal sustainability of the budgetary policy rules

We construct a continuous-time overlapping generations model with an endogenous growth structure and consider fiscal sustainability under two fiscal rules: (i) the government fixes the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio and (ii) the government fixes the primary balance-to-GDP ratio. Under the constant budget deficit-to-GDP rule, fiscal sustainability is ensured when the initial public debt-to-GDP and budget deficit-to-GDP ratios are sufficiently small. Under the constant primary balance-to-GDP rule, it is difficult to ensure fiscal sustainability when the primary balance is in deficit or zero. However, fiscal sustainability is ensured when the primary balance is in surplus and the initial government debt-to-GDP ratio is sufficiently small.     

Policy mix and debt sustainability: evidence from fiscal policy rules

This paper characterizes rules-based fiscal policy setting for G-3 and large EMS countries. We set up a simple fiscal policy rule and then infer on the policymakers’ reaction coefficients by testing with GMM. Our results qualify existing evidence on systematic fiscal policy in two respects. First, fiscal policy usually stabilizes public debt; and there is indeed substantial interaction between fiscal and monetary policies via the policy mix or the debt channel. Second, sustainability is achieved with a “stop–go” cycle of consolidation. Unless debt ratios are high, consolidation does not come at the cost of less cyclical stabilization.     

Options and strategies for fiscal consolidation in India

This paper uses a multi-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study options and strategies for fiscal consolidation in India. The challenge for India is how to put public finances on a more sustainable footing while preserving the potential for high growth and attenuating the adverse consequences on the needy. We analyze the macroeconomic implications of three fiscal consolidation scenarios. A “benchmark” case based on authorities' intentions that reduces government consumption, general transfers, and strengthens consumption tax collection; a “growth-friendly” that reallocates the savings to more public investment; and a “social-friendly” scenario that equally reallocates the savings between more public investment and more transfers to households excluded from the financial system. The simulations indicate that fiscal consolidation yields considerable long-term benefits and also entails output costs in the near term. Growth outcomes are better under the growth-friendly and social-friendly scenarios. These consolidation scenarios alone are not enough to maximize net gains for India. Other factors, such as the pace of consolidation, the combination with structural reforms and external economic conditions, play a critical role in the success of fiscal consolidation.     

Seigniorage and Japanese fiscal sustainability: Simulation analysis using an overlapping generations model

This study examines two tax policies for achieving fiscal sustainability in Japan: (i) an increase in consumption tax and (ii) consumption tax hike combined with inflation. To evaluate these policies from both fiscal and welfare perspectives, I develop a multi-period overlapping generations model with money. The results reveal that, compared to the first policy, the second policy can substantially delay the timing of and curb the increase in consumption tax through seigniorage revenue. This suggests seigniorage could be a useful tool for the Japanese government in resolving its fiscal problems. In addition, in an aging Japan, the second policy can enhance future generations’ utility. Because inflation reduces money holdings and utility of the elderly, policies that cause inflation in the present but reduce it in the future improve the utility of future generations. From a social welfare viewpoint, such policies are desirable in a government that has foresight.     

The employment effect of changes in the composition of fiscal consolidations

This paper assesses the magnitude and nature of fiscal consolidation policies and their impact on employment. In particular, in an attempt to address fiscal imbalances in the near term, countries have been faced with the delicate challenge of doing so without damaging recovery prospects and thus, counter to their original aim, worsening further public finances. In this regard, the paper reviews recent austerity measures adopted by governments and discusses how prolonging fiscal consolidation measures in their current form could be counterproductive for guaranteeing debt sustainability. Moreover, the article shows how poorly designed fiscal cuts – directly or indirectly affecting labour – seem to have been dampening job prospects. The paper sheds light on how fiscal and employment goals can be achieved together. More specifically, it finds that a fiscally-neutral change in the expenditure and revenue composition of fiscal consolidation can boost job creation. In this sense, the paper shows that it is imperative to find the right policy mix and recommends countries to be mindful of the nature and pace of consolidation.     

Assessing fiscal episodes

In an OCDE panel, for the period 1970–2010, we assess the effects of fiscal consolidation episodes, with four different definitions. Our results reveal that lower final government consumption increases private consumption in three out of the four approaches, when a fiscal consolidation occurs, and the debt ratio is above the cross-country average. The magnitude of these coefficients is higher for countries with lower debt levels, implying more successful consolidations associated with reduced crowding-out effects. There is some evidence of non-Keynesian effects for both private consumption and private investment, and the effects of social transfers on private investment tend to be negative, both in the short and long run. In a financial crisis, such effects are also more prone to happen. Finally, raising long-term interest rates reduces per capita private investment.     

The composition effects of tax-based consolidation on income inequality

Many advanced economies have recently embarked on fiscal austerity. As this has come at a time of high and rising income disparities, policy-makers have fretted about the inequality effects of fiscal consolidations. We shed new light on this issue by empirically investigating the (composition) effects of tax-based consolidations on income inequality, output and labour market conditions for a sample of 16 OECD countries over the period 1978–2012. We find that tax-based consolidations reduce income inequality, but at the cost of weaker economic activity. However, tax composition does matter. Indirect taxes reduce income inequality by more than direct taxes, possibly due to the operation of a positive labour supply channel. Higher indirect taxes increase the price of the consumption basket and create incentives for agents to increase their labour supply. We find this effect to be stronger for middle-aged women. Looking at specific instruments, general consumption taxes and personal taxes are the most suited to reduce inequality while at the same time minimizing the equity-efficiency trade-off.     

A new test for fiscal sustainability with endogenous sovereign bond yields: Evidence for EU economies

In this paper we develop a new test for fiscal sustainability and propose a synthetic fiscal sustainability indicator. Conventional tests based on fiscal reaction functions assume a constant real interest rate. However, many empirical studies find evidence on a positive response of long-term rates to sovereign debt levels. We take this evidence into account and endogenize the long-term real interest rate in testing fiscal sustainability. We apply the new test for the European economies. We find that considering the response of interest rate to debt may change the assessment of fiscal sustainability. More specifically, our results indicate that fiscal sustainability is at risk in a number of European Union economies, even if the results of traditional approaches suggest sustainable fiscal policy.     

Optimal fiscal decentralization: Redistribution and welfare implications

The literature has been inconclusive regarding the welfare effects of fiscal decentralization (FD), defined here as the extent to which local governments collect and spend local tax revenues. We present an original model to investigate formally the distributional and welfare implications of FD. In contrast to the standard approach that compares the implications of full FD with that of centralization, we consider that the central government chooses the level of FD to maximize welfare in a heterogeneous country. Noncooperatively, local governments choose their tax collection effort to maximize local utility. We show that an increase in the tax rate leads optimal FD to increase so as to compensate for the welfare loss from decreasing optimal local tax effort. Hence, welfare and income distribution improve in FD at its intermediate, rather than extreme, levels. We coin this result as the decentralization-Laffer curve. As regional spillovers increase, FD is less desirable as it deteriorates welfare and income distribution. This finding provides a novel support for the decentralization theorem and contributes to the fiscal policy debate.     

Fiscal Consolidations: A Theoretical Essay with a Heterogeneous-Agent Model

Since the emergence of the financial crisis, most of the EU countries have promoted impressive public interventions to support financial institutions, contributing to a significant rise in general government gross debt-to-GDP ratios. As such, the issue of how to best pursue a fiscal consolidation will become crucial regarding the fiscal policy stance. This paper aims at characterizing four different stylized debt consolidation strategies extensively identified in the literature (one pure revenue-based and three expenditure-based) in order to assess welfare affects and, in particular, the inequality effects involved. For this purpose, we built a general equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model capable of exploring the relationship between fiscal policy and the endogenous cross-section distribution of income and wealth. Moreover, we decompose the impacts on welfare criteria in order to distinguish pure efficiency effects from insurance and inequality effects. According to our simulations, the adjustment based on the reduction of unproductive expenditures came out to be the most welfare-enhancing compared to those based on tax increases or on social transfer reductions.     

Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya

Kenya's fiscal policy landscape is characterized by primary deficit spending forcing the government to rely on debt to meet its objectives. The justification often being that as a developing economy, annual growth rates and future prospects may in the short run justify the uptake of debt to finance infrastructural development. However, given potential fiscal limits, fiscal cycles usually alternates between sustainable and unsustainable regimes and this has a bearing on long run sustainability. This study therefore sought to investigate the nature of fiscal policy regime in Kenya and the extent to which fiscal policy is sustainable in the long run taking into account periodic regime shifts. Markov switching models were used to endogenously determine fiscal policy regimes. Regime switching tests were used to test whether No-Ponzi game condition and debt stabilizing condition were met. The results established that regime switching model was suitable in explaining regime sustainable and unsustainable cycles. An investigation of fiscal policy regimes established that both sustainable and unsustainable regimes were dominant, and each lasted for an average of four years. There was evidence to imply the existence of procyclical fiscal policy in Kenya. Regime switching tests for long run sustainability suggested that the No-Ponzi game condition weakly holds in the Kenyan economy. Regime-based sensitivity analysis indicated that persistence of unsustainability regime for more than 4 years could threaten long-run fiscal sustainability.     

The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective

This paper analyses the sustainability of Portuguese public finances, making use of a long dataset with more than a full century of observations. The use of such a long dataset is appropriate because both the unit root and co-integration tests on which the sustainability testing procedure is based require a long period of data. We find considerable evidence in favor of sustainability for the 1903–2003 period which is not, however, maintained for the more recent 1975–2003 period, as it is characterized by the largest GDP deficit ratios of our sample. This latter period appears to signal a shift to an unsustainable path in Portuguese fiscal policy. Hence, our results suggest that fiscal consolidation efforts must, in fact, be continued in Portugal.Paper presented at the 2004 CESifo-LBI Conference on “Sustainability of Public Debt”, October 22–23 2004, Munich.     

What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries

We investigate how the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on output and employment vary with the state of the business cycle, monetary policy, public debt, the current account, and private credit. By examining the response of a large number of variables, we are also able to shed light on the transmission channels of fiscal policy. Our main finding is that short-term output multipliers are below unity, even in states in which multipliers are expected to be larger (eg when the output gap is negative or monetary policy tight). Key offsetting factors that reduce the size of multipliers and explain differences across states are the extent to which the external sector improves and monetary policy eases.     

Stabilization policy,infrastructure investment,and welfare in a small open economy

Using a two-sector neoclassical growth model in an open economy setting with heterogeneous agents, this paper studies the distributional effects and welfare implications of a joint monetary and fiscal policy response to public infrastructure expansion in emerging market economies. The results show that fiscal stabilization policy is critical for achieving fiscal sustainability and price stability. With joint support of monetary and fiscal policy, government infrastructure investment provides significant welfare gains to the economy, and the choice of fiscal instruments has major distributional effects across agents: saving households accrue the highest welfare gains with new bond issuance, while hand-to-mouth consumers are better off when non-distorting taxes are adjusted. These potential tradeoffs in welfare due to households’ differing responses to infrastructure expansion have important implications for policy making.