The selection of technology for late-starters: A case study of the energy-smart photovoltaic industry

Technology selection, which influences the competitive advantages of an enterprise or a country, is a multi-criteria decision issue. In addition, it is increasingly difficult to identify the right technologies because technologies are increasing in number and complexity. This study proposes a technology selection process integrating the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method. The former effectively conducts the fuzziness existing in experts' responses and identifies the strength of technology selection criteria and the relationship between the two. The latter provides the main technology alternatives for Taiwan's future photovoltaic industry. Finally, through the two-way linkage between technology selection criteria and main industrial technologies, the technology fields of the photovoltaic industry can be identified. The empirical results indicate that the benefit of a technology is the most important factor among technological selection criteria, and that Taiwan should adopt and develop microcrystalline silicon film multi-junction and amorphous-silicon solar cells as its main industrial technologies. The results may serve to guide industrial technology acquisition and the work of resource allocations on the behalf of government and enterprises.     

The dual analytic hierarchy process to prioritize emerging technologies

Recently, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been frequently used as a proper tool for a wide variety of decision-making situations in fields such as government, business, industry, healthcare, and education. In this article, we will mainly focus on the use of the AHP to select proper emerging technologies for future R&D at a country level. For successful completion of our project, we propose to use the dual AHP (DAHP) which consists of the regular AHP and the Bayesian type AHP. This DAHP performs useful features when decomposition of the main criteria is desirable but is not technically feasible via the conventional AHP. As an empirical application, appropriate electronic device technologies for future R&D in Korea are found by the DAHP, which reveals that DAHP-led technologies selection (or DAHP-led resources allocation) at a country level is a many-faceted problem.     

Enhanced co-citation analysis using frameworks

The valuation of intangible assets, such as patents, has recently been considered an important technique for R&D strategies. This paper proposes a citation analysis as a method of valuation on patent clusters having patent networks. A citation analysis is a method that examines the value of a patent on the basis of the number of citations of references. In particular, a co-citation analysis is used for coupling patents as the patent cluster and valuating the patent cluster. While the co-citation analysis is of great interest as a method of valuation, this analysis has not been fully examined and does not define any framework for a technology transition and patent strategy. Therefore, in this paper, the conventional co-citation analysis for evaluating the patent clusters is enhanced and frameworks for the technology transition and patent strategy are proposed by analysing citation routes in a co-citation analysis.     

Technological choice in the less developed countries: An analytic hierarchy approach

A novel and practical approach is proposed for the assessment and selection of imported technology by the less developed countries. Technological choice is conceptualized as a multiobjective, multicriterion problem wherein subjective judgments and political processes play key roles. A new planning and evaluation technique known as the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced as a potent methodology for dealing with the economic, social, and political realities confronting technological change in the less developed countries.     

Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis

It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.     

Factor analysis and structural equation model for patent analysis: a case study of Apple’s technology

In this study, we analyse patent data for technology analysis (TA) because patents are rich in information on developed technology. The results of TA can be used to perform more efficient research and development (R&D) planning. Most companies are trying to develop new and innovative technologies to improve their competitive positions. Research involving TA has been introduced in a variety of fields. Most of the published research analysed original variables related to a target technology. However, it is necessary to analyse the latent variables as well as the original variables included in the technology to achieve a better TA model. Therefore, we propose a factor analysis and a structural equation model for patent analysis. In addition, we use Apple’s patents to determine the target technology. In our case study, we analyse Apple’s technologies by latent variables. Our case study shows how the proposed model is applied to Apple’s R&D planning.     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

Standardization Process of Systems Technologies: Creating a Balance between Competition and Cooperation

Many firms are experimenting with how to standardize new technologies. They may use proprietary technologies for their products and services, and let them compete in the market selection. Alternatively, they can cooperate to jointly set a standard and experiment with combinations of market process and cooperation. If firms let the market decide, they can compete with technologies and need not invest time and effort in hammering out a standard. If they do incur the costs of negotiated standardization, they may enable end users to realize the benefits of standards. A hybrid standardization process combines the advantages of both market selection and negotiated decision making. This paper presents a contingency framework to identify conditions that will affect the preferred standardization process for vendors who introduce new technologies. A major contingency that this paper points to is the systemic nature of technologies in information and communication technology industries. The more systemic the technology is (in a way to be clarified), the less likely that firms will establish a hybrid standardization process. One advantage of decomposing technology systems in smaller components (modules) is that this approach enables firms to combine market selection with negotiated selection of standards.     

A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts

The anticipation and forecast of technological changes are of vital importance, as technological advances become increasingly fast and complex. What is at the core is identification of the current technologies that will drive technological changes over the coming few years. In this respect, numerous approaches have been devised to assess future technological impacts based on patent citation information, but do not provide a fair reflection of dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of technological impacts as they are deterministic methods based on simple citation counts. We propose a stochastic patent citation analysis that can assess future technological impacts in a time period of interest by employing the future citation count as a proxy. At the heart of the proposed approach is a Pareto/NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution) model for taking into account the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of technological impacts. A patent citation matrix is first constructed for each time unit with citation patterns of the past. The future technological impacts are then derived by Pareto/NBD sub-model and gamma–gamma sub-model. A case study of the display technology patents is presented to illustrate the proposed approach. We believe our method can be employed in various research fields, from narrow patent valuation, to broad technological analysis and planning.     

Biometrics technology evaluating and selecting model building

Biometrics has been vigorously promoted around the world as a means to strengthen security and privacy in the IT world. Biometrics has been applied in specific areas for decades and proliferated in customer and resident electronic products to enhance security and privacy. This study evaluated biometrics through conventional technology assessment considerations combined with viewpoints from the particularity of biometric technologies and provides suggestions for selection. In order to achieve biometric technology assessment, we examined how different evaluating objects, technology assessment, biometric competence and key elements of biometric, lead to corresponding biometric technologies. The relative importance of each object was evaluated using the analytic hierarchy process. The weight of each object was adjusted separately to construct evaluating scenarios by sensitivity analysis. The results show that fingerprint recognition, iris recognition and palm print recognition are three biometric technologies that could meet the three objects requirements at the same time.     

Patent keyword network analysis for improving technology development efficiency

The methods of patent analysis are largely divided into network-based patent analysis and keyword-based morphological patent analysis. Both methods have their shortcomings: internal patent information composed of natural languages cannot be analyzed in the network-based patent analysis method, and the correlation between patents cannot be analyzed in the keyword-based morphological patent analysis method. In this research, we analyze the patents of Light Emitting Diode (LED) and wireless broadband fields via a method that incorporates both the network-based patent analysis and the keyword-based patent analysis methods. And by using network indices, we identify the characteristics of the patent keyword network, and also perform a trend analysis to discover how keywords play a significant role in network changes over time. The analysis results indicate that the patent keyword network is sporadic but clustered and shows a clear power law distribution. Further, the inflow keywords are highly likely to tie new connections with other keywords in the existing associated communities. Also, we confirm the fact that, as time passes, the top core keywords of a particular technology field continue to play an important role in the network and that also the rate of technological changes in wireless broadband field is faster than that of LED. Through the proposed analysis, researchers can easily grasp what technology keywords are important in the specific technology field and identify the relations between the essential technology elements; furthermore, this information can be utilized for developing new technologies by combining these technology elements extracted from community analysis.     

Multivariate multiple regression modelling for technology analysis

Technology analysis is important for technology management areas such as research and development strategy and new product development. So many studies on technology analysis have been used across a diverse array of fields. Most of these were based on patent analysis, which analyses patent documents using text mining and statistics. The studies on conventional patent analyses constructed models consisting of various independent variables (technologies) and one dependent variable. But in reality, we have to consider a model that includes several dependent variables at the same time, because most technologies influence each other. In this paper, we propose a methodology for patent analysis that reflects the various response technologies simultaneously. We perform multivariate multiple regression modelling in order to efficiently conduct our technology analysis. To show how our modelling can be applied to realistic context, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to three-dimensional printing technology.     

Implementing technology roadmapping with supplier selection for semiconductor manufacturing companies

The rapid pace of technological innovation in the semiconductor manufacturing industry has necessitated the acquisition of competitive advantage from strategic technology planning. The vital requisite for this is well-timed investment including the replacement of old equipment with advanced new equipment. In such investment, selecting the appropriate semiconductor manufacturing equipment from the appropriate supplier is a key factor for successful technology planning. Therefore, equipment supplier selection should be taken into account in the technology planning of semiconductor manufacturing companies. One of the most widely used tools for technology planning is the technology roadmap (TRM). However, conventional TRMs have not considered the task of supplier selection. To address this limitation, this study proposes an extended, four-layered TRM that adds the layer of equipment supplier to the conventional layers of market, product, and technology. The equipment suppliers to be included in the new layer are selected from the supplier portfolio matrix composed of two performance axes: supplier performance and equipment performance. The candidates of equipment suppliers are placed on the supplier portfolio matrix according to the values of two axes determined by evaluation using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The proposed TRM is expected to be useful for technology planning by adding a consideration for equipment supplier selection in semiconductor manufacturing companies.     

专利转化特征精准识别与预测——以人工智能芯片为例

探讨前沿科技领域专利转化特征并对其进行精准识别与预测，对于我国破解“卡脖子”技术难题及实现科技自立自强具有重要意义。选取人工智能芯片专利领域，采用机器学习算法测度最优转化预测方案，分析全球范围内主要国家或地区专利成功转化影响因素，从企业/高校、国内/国际等不同层面总结专利成功转化的主要特征。结果发现：随机森林算法预测效果较好，人工智能芯片领域专利转化概率服从对数曲线分布，影响高校/企业、国内/国外专利转化特征的因素有所不同。最后，提出高校/科研机构应注重高价值专利维持和团队合作、企业应提升专利技术质量和撰写质量等政策建议。     

An analytic network process approach to partner selection for acquisition and development

To cope with rapid technological change and the increasing R&D costs during a period of decreasing technology and product life cycles, acquisition and development (A&D) has been suggested to be an important method for high-tech firms to achieve higher economic returns. However, few studies have examined the operational problems of choosing a compatible A&D candidate from a pool of potential A&D candidates. To address this limitation, this study proposes an approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) to rank a set of potential A&D candidates within a multivariate set of attributes systematically. A total of 25 criteria were identified and used to construct the ANP model in which the final selection is based on the resulting priorities assigned to the A&D candidates. A case study of a semiconductor manufacturing company was conducted to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. The results indicated that the proposed ANP method can aid in A&D decision-making problems systematically.     

Exploring potential R&D collaboration partners through patent analysis based on bibliographic coupling and latent semantic analysis

The aim of the present research is to provide a new systematic methodology to explore potential Research and Development (R&D) collaboration partners using patent information. The potential R&D collaboration partners are visualised as a patent assignee level map based on technological similarity between patents by using the network analysis. The proposed framework utilises two analytic methods to measure technological similarity. The first method, bibliographic coupling analysis, measures technological similarity based on the citation relationship using patent bibliographic information. Second, latent semantic analysis is utilised based on semantic similarity using patent textual information. The fuel cell membrane electrode assembly technology field is selected and applied to illustrate the proposed methodology. The proposed approach allows firms, universities, research institutes and governments to identify potential R&D collaborators as a systematic decision-making support tool.     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

A New Comprehensive Patent Analysis Approach for New Product Design in Mechanical Engineering

This study proposes a five-phase procedure for a new product design process. Based on the concept of “focus first, then extend”, this study presents a new approach called the New Comprehensive Patent Analysis model (NCPA) which combines the patent family with patent citation analysis in a new product design process. The procedure includes the following features: (1) integrating the perspective of management-based and technology-based design for patent searching, (2) building a patent family based on industry basic patents, (3) filtering the patent family to obtain key patents, (4) utilizing patent citations to gain necessary technology information in product development design, and (5) combining TRIZ theory to construct patent technology performance maps, and to discover product niches. This NCPA model is empirically applied in a real case. The results show that the NCPA improves the overall efficiency of new product designs, but also involves higher cost than other approaches.     

Decision criteria for selecting air source heat pump technology in UK low carbon housing

The use of low or zero carbon technologies has been encouraged in the UK, one of which is air source heat pump (ASHP). However, the current ASHP uptake in UK housing is low, far behind that in Europe and America. This paper aims to contribute to knowledge of utilising ASHP by examining the decision criteria for selecting ASHP and exploring underlying considerations of UK housebuilders. The research was carried out through a case study with a housebuilder and seven nation-wide suppliers, engaging four new-build projects. A wide range of decision criteria were identified. Despite the dominance of cost considerations, non-cost factors also imposed significant commercial implications on the housebuilder’s technology selection. For achieving more effective ASHP selection, a structured approach is suggested to manage the decision criteria and appreciate the stakeholders’ roles and relationships regarding technology uptake. Improved practice should enable a more informed technology decision culture in UK housing.