Strategic prospective for the implementation of employment policies in the Azores

This article explains how a far-off autonomous region of Portugal lying 2700 km from Brussels decided to approach its future, notably labor. The government in the Azores applied strategic prospective, and two of its methods, MICMAC and MACTOR,¹ at three key moments in the implementation of employment policies. While providing background on Azorean public policy and the broader European context, the author describes three cases, which deal primarily with education, qualifications and mobility. Interestingly, the results of decisions made on the basis of the prospective exercises can already be measured. This underscores the real efficiency of the policies adopted and the importance of the European policies of mobility, notably within the scope of Eurodyssey, a program of professional mobility of the Assembly of European Regions, that is now led by the Azores.     

Future memories

Although the concept of foresight is now widely used by Anglo-American writers, the Romance-language countries have continued to refer to the concept of la prospective or prospectiva since the early 1960s. Despite cultural differences, the two concepts are very similar. Nevertheless, the author argues that prospective is closer to strategic foresight. The prospective attitude does not wait for change and then react; it aims to master expected change (preactivity) and to induce a desired change (proactivity). Preactivity is what guides all approaches to future studies, forecasting, scenario planning and foresight. Proactivity is more voluntarist, and aims to bring about the desired changes by means of strategic planning. This leads to a hopeful message: We just have to rethink the problems to move forward. The author highlights the enduring relevance of several key thinkers ranging from Saint Augustine and Seneca to Gaston Berger and Igor Ansoff. He emphasizes the importance of a collectivity's thinking together about the future and taking action. Overall the article pleads for rigor yet some common sense explains the utility of participatory foresight with simple tools (morphological analysis, prospective workshops). In conclusion, this article emphasizes two symmetrical errors: ignore the existence of a hammer when in front of a nail or consider every problem a nail because you have a hammer!     

Collectively foreseeing future issues: Prospective strategy contributes to the Agriculture and Food Systems' ‘Futures Studies’ Club

The Agriculture and Food Systems' ‘Futures Studies’ Club, created in 1995 and spearheaded by BASF Agro France is in its 15th year. The Club has become a regular meeting place for the players of the agricultural and agri-food systems from the farmer to the consumer and a place to debate about their societal issues. It has addressed a dozen subjects of futures studies since it was created in 1995.BASF Agro France and the Club's members, mainly the company's clients, aim to understand and anticipate the changes that might in the future affect the agricultural world and the players of the agribusiness sector: suppliers, distributors, agri-food business, and retailers.To that end, free dialogue and debate between members in an atmosphere of mutual trust were strongly encouraged, which guaranteed the richness of the discussions and the pertinence of the wrap-ups and the conclusions drawn from them. Appropriate tools from what can be called prospective strategy or strategic prospective (coming from the French school of stratégie prospective) are used to reach a valid conclusion through a crystal clear group process.Members of the Club bear witness to the input and benefits gained by participating in the Club: prioritising issues, confronting and validating ideas, possible response leads, operational added value, whether to consider strategy or management. BASF Agro France follows through on the direct and operational conclusions, feeding its strategy, projects and programs, for example by contributing to a corporate vision which fully integrates sustained development.     

The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs.     

Reciprocal influences in future thinking between Europe and the USA

La prospective is generally considered to have grown after WWII in developed countries with two main centers, France and the United States of America. In France, the development of prospective does constitute an important point in contemporary history. Stemming from an idea from philosopher Gaston Berger near the end of the 1950s, a spirit arose accompanied by a practice spread in the central administration (government) and in major French corporations. The objective of this article is not to claim any French originality in thinking about the future. Instead, the following pages show how an original approach blending reflection on the future and present action took shape and the relationship that developed involving current practices on the other side of the Atlantic, mainly the USA, with the help of a few intermediaries.     

Greening of Danish Industry - Changes in Concepts and Policies

Cleaner technology and pollution prevention have been cornerstones in the Danish environmental policy since the late 1980s. They have become an integral part of a multifaceted process of the 'greening of industry' involving changes in production, products and in the environmental strategies of companies, as well as in governmental regulation and policies. Companies, industrial associations, consultants and different governmental bodies have established new relations and networks to support the greening process and gradually a broad range of actors and patterns of interactions have emerged, linking technological and institutional innovations as well as economic and environmental issues in new ways. Based on several evaluations of Danish governmental support schemes for the introduction of cleaner technology and environmental management, this article will outline the major changes in the discourse on pollution prevention and in the policy instruments applied.     

政府控制与企业绩效实证研究

本文以2010-2012年间全部A股上市公司作为样本,对政府控制与上市公司绩效之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,政府控制的上市公司在社会效益、绝对水平的经济效益、营运能力及劳动生产率方面优于非政府控制的上市公司,而在成长能力、公司价值、公司治理等市场化指标方面却逊于非政府控制的上市公司。本文认为,当前的国有企业改革应摆脱唯产权论的束缚,着力于政府的角色定位、职能转变及机制体制改革。最后,本文基于系统的视角从宏观引导、市场推动和企业自发这三个方面提出政策建议。     

私募股权投资会影响企业创新策略吗

〖GK3〗基于企业实质性与策略性创新策略视角,以专利异质性作为切入点,考察沪深两市2010-2017年IPO企业私募股权投资与创新策略间的关系。研究发现,私募参与能有效提升企业整体专利数量,但仅对策略性创新行为即非发明专利数量具有显著提升作用;从私募特征看,单独投资和本土背景下的私募对策略性创新的引导作用更强。进一步研究发现,IPO叫停抑制了私募对企业策略性创新的引导作用,同时激发了私募对企业实质性创新的正面作用;对IPO企业异质性创新成果的经济后果进行研究发现,实质性创新能够显著提升企业绩效,而策略性创新对非发明专利的关注与包装并不能对企业绩效产生积极影响。     

Greening of Danish Industry - Changes in Concepts and Policies

Cleaner technology and pollution prevention have been cornerstones in the Danish environmental policy since the late 1980s. They have become an integral part of a multifaceted process of the 'greening of industry' involving changes in production, products and in the environmental strategies of companies, as well as in governmental regulation and policies. Companies, industrial associations, consultants and different governmental bodies have established new relations and networks to support the greening process and gradually a broad range of actors and patterns of interactions have emerged, linking technological and institutional innovations as well as economic and environmental issues in new ways. Based on several evaluations of Danish governmental support schemes for the introduction of cleaner technology and environmental management, this article will outline the major changes in the discourse on pollution prevention and in the policy instruments applied.     

The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

Applying DEA, MPI, and grey model to explore the operation performance of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication industry

The study applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist productivity index (MPI) to explore the operation performances of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication companies from 2004 to 2007. The input variables are total assets, operation costs, and selling and administrative expenditures, while the output variable is net sales. The results show that if Taiwanese wafer fabrication companies want to increase their operation performances, they should improve their CRS and VRS efficiencies not scale efficiency. Furthermore, this paper utilizes GM (1,1) - one order and one variable in the grey model - to forecast the growth trend of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication industry from 2008 to 2010, and then employs GM (1,N) - one order and N variables in the grey model - to measure the influences of the input variables upon the output variable. This study demonstrates that the most influential factor for the output variable, net sales, is selling and administrative expenditures.     

Strategic planning in public R&D organizations for agribusiness: Brazil and the United States of America

There is increasing evidence that public organizations dedicated exclusively to research and development (R&D) in agribusiness need systematic management tools to incorporate the uncertainties and complexities of technological and nontechnological factors of external environments in its long-term strategic plans. The major issues are: “What will be the agribusiness science and technology (S&T) needs be in the future?” “How to prepare in order to meet these needs?” Both Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa), attached to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have developed a comprehensive strategic and operational planning process in order to answer these key questions in the 1990s. The main objective of this article is to present a comparative and preliminary analysis of concepts, methodologies, and processes utilized, and some results obtained by these public organizations.     

Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion: An analysis of state government finances in Brazil

The aim of this article is to analyze state‐level public finances in Brazil. We examine the dynamics of governmental spending in a panel of 26 Brazilian states in search of evidence of Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion Hypothesis. For the period ranging from 2002 to 2015, three methodologies are applied: dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG). The main empirical results found indicate that (1) there is strong evidence of Fiscal Illusion caused by public deficit and by central government transfer grants; (2) there are possible Flypaper Effects; (3) there is no evidence in support of Wagner’s Law; (4) there is low publicness degree of local expenditures; (5) due to Fiscal Illusion, less‐developed Brazilian states tend to be stuck in a public expenditure growth mechanism, especially in expenses related to non‐public goods, which tend to benefit private interests and lobby groups.     

CHINESE INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND THE REDUCTION OF STATE-OWNED SHARES IN CHINA'S LISTED COMPANIES

Abstract. Reducing the proportion of state‐owned shares (SOSs) in China is a complicated undertaking, related to several issues on the reform agenda such as the strategic reform of the national economy, industrial policies, the sustainable development of listed companies, the evolution of the ownership structure and the establishment of a social security system. By our analysis, since the quantity of SOSs is continuously increasing, it requires thorough and differentiated reduction strategies based on the industrial structure of SOSs, industrial policies, timing issues, etc., and should follow this process all along; i.e. SOSs → key corporations → key industries → state economy.     

Strategic corporate social responsibility and economic performance

This article proposes a novel Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) index based on a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. Acknowledging the argument that companies might favour those CSR dimensions that provide strategic competitive advantages, we argue that the index can capture companies’ strategic approach to CSR. Furthermore, our findings reveal a neutral relationship between this strategic CSR index and economic performance as measured by Return on Assets (ROA) and Tobin's Q, when controlling for firm unobserved heterogeneity and past economic performance. By contrast, an equally-weighted index of the same CSR indicators is found to be negatively related with ROA, which reinforces our claim that this specific DEA-based index is a measure of strategic CSR.     

Environmental uncertainty,foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study

This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging.     

融资结构与企业自主创新*——来自中国战略性新兴产业A股上市公司的经验证据

本文以中国2010-2012年战略性新兴产业A股上市公司为样本,考察了企业融资结构与企业自主创新之间的关系。本文的经验研究发现：（1）内部融资对战略性新兴产业上市企业自主创新有显著的正面效应;（2）股权融资与战略性新兴产业上市企业自主创新之间存在着显著的正相关关系;（3）债权融资对战略性新兴产业上市企业的自主创新具有抑制作用。在考虑企业异质性之后,上述结论对融资约束程度低、年轻和小规模企业同样适用,但融资约束程度高、成熟和大规模企业自主创新则主要依赖于内部融资。进一步分析表明,在战略性新兴产业中,不同产权性质企业的融资结构对企业自主创新的影响存在一定的差异。在中央及地方政府控股的企业中,融资结构与企业自主创新之间的关系并不显著;在私有产权的企业中,企业自主创新主要依赖于内部融资和股权融资,债权融资对企业自主创新产生负面效应。本文还发现,企业集团化经营也在很大程度上影响了融资结构与企业自主创新之间的关系。本文具有深刻的政策含义,在企业内部融资相对稳定情况下,应该大力发展股权融资市场,提高企业直接融资比重,降低企业的杠杆率水平,以达到促进战略性新兴产业自主创新的目的。     

长三角地区战略性新兴产业TFP增长差异及高端化发展路径研究

采用DEA-Malmquist生产率指数,从影响因素、时间序列以及增长方式等维度对2007—2015年长三角地区战略性新兴产业上市公司全要素生产率变化及其分解项进行研究,并利用σ收敛和绝对β收敛方程对不同类型企业进行收敛性检验。结果表明：长三角战略性新兴产业全要素生产率不断下降,主要源于技术效率降低,产业总体呈现出纯技术效率和规模效率双低的低端化发展倾向;从产业高端化的两个维度,将长三角战略性新兴产业上市公司分为3种不同类型——高效增长型、粗放增长型、悲惨增长型,不同类型企业增长方式差异显著,即应采取适合自身的高端化发展路径;长三角战略性新兴产业上市公司全要素生产率及其分解项收敛性显著,企业差距将不断缩小且最终趋于相同的稳态水平。     

Dynamics of the North-South welfare gap and global sustainability

The vast heterogeneity among nations in terms of economic and demographic characteristics is evident, despite being overlooked in some global studies. In this heterogeneity, it is possible to identify some distinct aggregate classes differing at some very fundamental level: developing (South) nations and developed (North) nations may have very different, asymmetric problems, goals and structures. This study investigates these two distinct groups of socio-economic systems, as they interact in a context of global sustainability. We identify population, economic growth, welfare gap, energy supply and pollution as key issues and analyze them using a systems perspective. A dynamic feedback model, which discriminates the two groups of nations, is constructed to study the dynamics of variables related to the above key issues. The model is tested using extensive data between the years 1980-2005. According to the reference behavior covering the period 1980-2050, it is not viable to close the welfare gap between North and South, given the current prevailing non-renewable-resource-based growth system. A non-renewable-resource-based system adopted by the economic system of growing South would take the global system even closer to its limits. It is observed that indicators like reserve-to-demand ratio fail to provide reliable signals for a timely transition to alternative resources, and a very serious economic recession due to resource scarcity is likely to develop in the next couple of decades. By coupling the demographic and economic dynamics, it is shown that an economic slowdown due to a resource scarcity may have a dramatic widening effect on the already existing welfare gap. Scenario and policy experiments verify the widely accepted importance of stabilizing the population growth in South, transition to alternative energy resources, and investment support to the South in this transition simultaneously in order to reduce the welfare gap between the two blocks. It is observed that enthusiastic targets for an energy transition may have a serious negative impact on the welfare level experienced in South, whereas an energy transition in South supported by North seems to have the most desirable outcome regarding the welfare gap.     

Scenario building: Uses and abuses

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.