Simulation estimation of two‐tiered dynamic panel Tobit models with an application to the labor supply of married women

In this paper a computationally practical simulation estimator is proposed for the two‐tiered dynamic panel Tobit model originally developed by Cragg ( 1971 ). The log‐likelihood function simulated through procedures based on a recursive algorithm formulated by the Geweke–Hajivassiliou–Keane simulator is maximized. The simulation estimators are then applied to study the labor supply of married women. The rich dynamic structure of the labor force participation decision as well as hours worked decisions that are conditional on the participation of married women are identified by using the proposed simulation estimators. The average partial effects of the participation and hours worked decisions for married women in response to fertility decisions and increases in the husband's income are also investigated. It is found that the hypothesis that the fertility decision is exogenous and the hypothesis that the husband's income is exogenous to married women's labor supply function are both rejected in the dynamic and static two‐tiered models. Moreover, children aged between 6 and 13 years old may have a negative impact on the hours worked decision for married women that is conditional on their participation. However, these children may provide some positive incentives for married women to participate in the labor force. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Joint estimation of sequential labor force participation and fertility decisions using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques

We analyze the effect of children on the labor supply of married women in a framework that accounts for the endogeneity of labor market and fertility decisions, for the heterogeneity of the effects of children and their correlation with the fertility decisions, and for the correlation of sequential labor market decisions. Women with stronger propensity for market work have fewer children, work more before the first birth, and face larger negative effects of children. The total effect of a child remains considerable long after birth; prior birth-related reductions in labor supply account for a significant share of the total effect.     

Bargaining Over Housework

A bstract .   This paper investigates the limited increase in housework provided by husbands in response to higher earnings and labor force participation by their wives. An explanation is provided that integrates the time availability, relative resources, and gender ideology perspectives that traditionally have been used to explain housework decisions. The outcome is the result of a bargaining process in which two concerns are identified as limiting the response of primary wage earning spouses to the employment of secondary wage earning spouses. First, the secondary wage earners' employment may in part be motivated by a concern about the durability of their marriage rather than their family's welfare. Second, a balancing of the inconveniences and the net earnings of the additional employment may be viewed as making only a limited contribution to the family's welfare. Empirical results of an analysis of the individual household tasks imply that both gender ideology and the spouses' earnings are important in determining the hours that each spouse devotes to household tasks. When making decisions about the amount of housework to perform, both spouses respond to changes in relative earnings, but the response of husbands, who are usually the primary wage earners, is smaller than that of wives, who tend to be the secondary wage earners.     

Social security and the labor supply of older married couples

This paper provides estimates of the impact of social security benefits on the labor force behavior of older married couples in the United States, with the ‘spouse benefit’ provision receiving particular attention. The empirical results using data from the Retirement History Survey show that the spouse benefit provision has a moderately small negative impact on labor force participation by older married women and a small positive impact on the labor force participation of older married men. The results are used to evaluate the potential labor supply impact of a proposal to eliminate spouse benefits and replace them with earnings sharing.     

Formal sector job growth and women’s labor sector participation : The case of Mexico

This paper looks at the effects of demand and supply on the determinants of labor sector (school, home work, informal, and formal) participation between Torreon and Tijuana, Mexico for married and single women. Comparisons between the two cities are used to capture differences in labor demand. Torreon is a traditional city with an agri-industrial base and Tijuana is a border city with large export processing (maquiladora) and tourism sectors, both of which demand female labor. Factors influencing labor supply include both individual and household characteristics. Married women, given the strong cultural tradition of working in the home, do not significantly increase their paid labor participation with higher labor demand or changing characteristics of the household. Personal characteristics have the greatest impact on labor sector participation. Single women do, however, increase their formal sector participation with additional employment opportunities and respond to household needs by moving in and out of the paid labor market. Results indicate that increases in labor demand in Mexico from the NAFTA could expand formal sector labor force participation of single women.     

A Multi-state model of state dependence in labor supply: Intertemporal labor supply effects of a shift from joint to individual taxation

In this paper I develop an intertemporal discrete choice model of female labor supply to analyze the effects of true state dependence and its effect on labor supply behavior over time. The estimation results show that state dependence is significantly positive at the extensive margin and lower but in general still significant at the intensive margin. I apply this model to study the short and long run labor supply effects of a fundamental reform of the German income tax system, i.e. the shift from joint to individual taxation of married couples and show that labor supply responses are significantly higher in the long run than in the short run.     

The role of health insurance in labor supply decisions of divorced females

Labor economics literature provides evidence that marital dissolution induces an increase in labor supply of females. This paper explores an explanation for this finding: Marital separation might place wives at risk of losing health insurance or increase the need for expanded health coverage. Thus, wives must increase their labor supply in order to qualify for health benefits. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, results confirm that marital dissolution is associated with increased female labor supply. However, this effect is mostly concentrated among women who were not previously enrolled in their husbands’ health insurance plans. For wives who were dependent on their husbands for coverage, continuing coverage laws appear to mitigate the effect of marital dissolution on female labor supply.     

Work–family conflict among Chinese married couples: testing spillover and crossover effects

This study simultaneously examined the two mechanisms (i.e. spillover and crossover effects) that link work-to-family conflict and life satisfaction among Chinese married couples. Data were collected from a sample of 123 Chinese managers and their spouses. Work-to-family conflict was measured from two sources: self-reported ratings and spouse-reported ratings. The results provided support for the suggested direct spillover mechanism for both husbands and wives: work-to-family conflict to life satisfaction. In addition, we found that work-to-family conflict crossed over to life satisfaction from wives to husbands but not from husbands to wives. Practical implications and future research directions are discussed.     

A change in the earnings penalty for British men with working wives: Evidence from the 1980's and 1990's

Using pooled cross-sectional data from 1984–1989 and 1990–1995, two-stage (Tobit/OLS) regressions show that the penalty on male earnings for working wives, found in earlier research for British males in the early 1980's in managerial and other occupations, is not present in the second half of the 1980's and is largely reversed by the 1990's; in most occupational clusters, managers most notably, it is replaced by an earnings premium. The results are consistent with a view that increases in married women's labor force participation in Britain, coupled with positive assortative mating, have overwhelmed any forces tending to reduce male salaries when their wives work.     

Sexual orientation and household decision making.: Same-sex couples' balance of power and labor supply choices.

This study estimates the effect of intra-household-bargaining on gay and lesbian couples' labor supplies, in order to determine how homosexual and heterosexual decision making compare, in a collective-household framework. Data from the 2000 US Census show that couples of all types exhibit a significant response to bargaining power shifts, as measured by age and non-labor-income differences between partners. Among gay, lesbian, and heterosexual cohabiting couples, a relatively young or rich partner has more bargaining power and supplies less labor, the opposite being true for his/her mate. Among married couples, the older spouse is instead more powerful, or the richer. No such patterns are found among same-sex roommates.     

Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis

This paper tests the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis regarding retirement expectations of older married American couples, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. In prior research we found that individual retirement expectation formation was consistent with the Rational Expectation hypothesis, but in that work spousal considerations were not analyzed. In this research we take advantage of panel data on expectations to test the RE hypothesis among married individuals as well as joint expectations among couples. We find that regardless of whether we assume that married individuals form their own expectations taking spouse's information as exogenous, or the reports of the couple are the result of a joint expectation formation process, their expectations are consistent with the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior of married couples.     

Woman's work: Seeking identity through occupations

Most adult women now hold full-time jobs outside the home, and the proportion is growing. While women's labor market experiences and successes have come closer to men's experiences and successes, their attachment to a labor market career, at least for married women, is not the compulsion that it is and has been for men. While many women have won the right to go off to the corporate citadel every morning, they have more often than not retained the obligation to bear most of the responsebility for the home. Ideally, postfeminist women woumen would like to be able to strike a balance between the responsibilities of the job and home. In reality, they are forced to choose between the two. Women have a right to seek identity through work as well as through parenthood-as men have always done. Those few women who insist on the right to meaningful work and the right to a family will have to push for changes in the work place as hard as they had to push to gain admittance to the jobs in the first place.     

Labor supply,income, and welfare of the farm household

Considering family labor and hired labor as heterogeneous inputs, we present a theoretical framework in which the optimal decisions of a farm household on on-farm family and hired labor, off-farm labor supply, and leisure are determined uniquely and endogenously. Focusing on two alternative settings with and without off-farm employment constraints, we show that imperfect substitutability between family labor and hired labor is not critical to the separation of household production and consumption. The validity of the separation proposition is shown to depend crucially on whether or not the availability of off-farm job opportunities is limited. We further examine how changes in external economic conditions and government policies affect the time allocation decisions of the household, as well as the composition of household income (i.e., on-farm income and off-farm labor earnings).     

The effect of household appliances on female labor force participation: Evidence from microdata

We estimate the effect of household appliance ownership on the labor force participation rate of married women using micro-level data from the 1960 and 1970 U.S. Censuses. In order to identify the causal effect of home appliance ownership on married women's labor force participation rates, our empirical strategy exploits both time-series and cross-sectional variation in these two variables. To control for endogeneity, we instrument a married woman's ownership of an appliance by the average ownership rate for that appliance among single women living in the same U.S. state. Single women's labor force participation rates did not increase between 1960 and 1970. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that the diffusion of household appliances contributed to the increase in married women's labor force participation rates during the 1960's.     

A closed-form solution for the continuous-time consumption model with endogenous labor income

In this paper, we study the consumption, labor supply, and portfolio decisions of an infinitely lived individual who receives a certain wage rate and income from investment into a risky asset and a risk-free bond. Uncertainty about labor income arises endogenously, because labor supply evolves randomly over time in response to changes in financial wealth. We derive closed-form solutions for optimal consumption, labor supply and investment strategy. We find that deferring the retirement age stimulates optimal consumption over time and discourages optimal labor supply during the working life. We also find explicitly that optimal portfolio allocation becomes more ‘conservative’ when the individual approaches his prescribed retirement age. The effects of risk-aversion coefficients on optimal decisions are examined.     

Housing tenure choice and the dual income household

Housing tenure choice has been the subject of a very large literature. Many treatments have sought to estimate the effect of household income on the likelihood of home ownership. To date, no study has ever disaggregated the household income of married couples into the separate labor income components to see if one partner’s income has a different effect than the other. Using a derived likelihood function to control for censoring in the wife’s income, this paper estimates the effect of separate incomes on housing tenure choice, accounting for possible endogeneity of the wife’s income. To compare the results of this estimation method, the paper also estimates the standard IV models, 2SLS and IV probit. While the results show that there is no endogeneity of the wife’s income, ignoring the censoring of the endogenous variable (when a large fraction of observations are censored) can possibly lead to biased coefficient estimates. Also, this paper confirms the importance of total household income, which has a larger effect than the total disaggregated components.     

Estimation of econometric models of some discrete games

This paper discusses, estimates and compares some microeconometric models for simultaneous discrete endogenous variables. The models are based on the assumption that observed endogenous variables represent the outcome of a static discrete game. I discuss models based on non-cooperative equilibrium concepts (Nash, Stackelberg), as well as models which presume Pareto optimality of observed outcomes. The models are estimated using data on the joint labor force participation decisions of husbands and wives in a sample of Dutch households.     

Intra-Family Equality and Income Distribution: Emerging Conflicts in Public Policy

A bstract . Recent social and economic developments have generated opportunities that have been unevenly distributed among wives in husband-wife families. Compared to others, participation rates and incomes , in particular, have been greater for wives in high-income families or those married to high-income earning men. One consequence of these circumstances is that income inequalities between spouses in the better off families have declined. Another is that income inequalities between families are expected to grow. It is suggested that the conflict between the two-inter- and intra-family equality—is a very real one.     

Social security and two-earner households

In the past decades, elimination of the pay-as-you-go system in U.S. has been extensively discussed and studied. Such an elimination would also eliminate the intragenerational redistribution done by the following policies of social security. Due to spousal and survivor׳s benefit provisions, US Social Security system redistributes (mostly) to single-earner married households. Since retirement benefits are a concave function of past mean earnings, the system redistributes from high earners to low earners. Finally, existence of a cap on social security taxable earnings makes the system regressive. This paper quantifies redistributive, labor supply, and welfare implications of these policies using a general equilibrium life-cycle model. Agents start out as permanently married or single and with education levels and wage profiles, where the latter depend both on education and gender. The household is the decision maker and decides on labor supply of its member(s) and saving. Elimination of these policies results in a 5.5% rise in labor force participation of married females, while increasing aggregate welfare by 0.4%. A majority of households experience positive gains in welfare. Single-earner married households incur large welfare losses (as big as 1.1%), whereas two-earner households with high skilled spouses experience substantial welfare gains (as big as 1.9%).     

Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model

This paper examines the effect of the labor-leisure choice on portfolio and consumption decisions over an individual's life cycle. The model incorporates the fact that individuals may have considerable flexibility in varying their work effort (including their choice of when to retire). Given this flexibility, the individual simultaneously determines optimal levels of current consumption, labor effort, and an optimal financial investment strategy at each point in his life cycle. We show that labor and investment choices are intimately related. The ability to vary labor supply ex post induces the individual to assume greater risks in his investment portfolio ex ante.