A Spatial Microsimulation Approach to Estimating the Total Number and Economic Value of Site Visits in Travel Cost Modelling

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for simultaneously estimating the total number and aggregate value of recreation-related visits to a small-scale community forest in the West of Ireland. Spatially-referenced simulated individuals from a spatial microsimulation model for Ireland (SMILE) who reside within the geographic extent of the market for recreation at the forest are identified using GIS techniques. A travel cost model, adjusted for truncation and endogenous stratification, is estimated for a sample of visitors to the site and transferred across each individual in the simulated population. The SMILE model and GIS-based network analysis are used to derive the appropriate values for the explanatory variables in the transfer. Each simulated individual’s latent demand for visits to the site is predicted and summed, in order to derive aggregate visits and amenity value estimates. The paper makes two principal contributions. First, it sets out a new approach for modelling the geographic extent of the market for recreation using survey data on reported travel distances and GIS techniques. Second, it develops a new simulation-based modelling approach for predicting total site visits at non-priced open-access recreation sites.     

Recreation demand estimation and valuation in spatially connected systems

Recreation demand models frequently are used to explain outdoor recreation behavior and to estimate willingness to pay for changes in environmental quality at recreation sites. Among the most commonly used recreation demand models are site choice models based on the multinomial logit framework, which account for the spatial relationships between each recreator's home and multiple alternative destinations thereby capturing the substitution possibilities among recreation sites. However, standard applications of this framework typically do not account for the possibility of spatial connections among the sites via movements of the target species, such as fish in connected water bodies in recreational angling applications or terrestrial species in hunting or wildlife viewing applications. In this paper we examine aspects of environmental valuation and natural resource dynamics that generally are addressed separately. Specifically, we show that in such spatially connected systems, a “reduced form” application of the standard site choice modeling approach, using proxy measures of environmental quality rather than direct measures of species abundances, can produce biased estimates of willingness to pay for environmental improvements. Furthermore, we show that under some conditions poorly targeted environmental improvements in spatially connected systems can lead to welfare decreases. In such systems a structural model of recreator site choices and species sorting behavior and population dynamics may be required to fully account for the spatial linkages among sites and the feedback effects between recreators and the target species.     

Modelling and mapping spatial heterogeneity in forest recreation services

Modelling and spatial mapping of recreation services require attention to both demand and supply factors. This paper combines recreational choice modelling and economic valuation with GIS based techniques to allow an assessment of the spatial diversity of the value of forest recreation services. The data for the analysis is a national study of the car borne recreational use of Danish forest sites. A random utility framework is used and a comparison between the standard fixed coefficient model and a mixed logit model is made. The results show that the different specifications of the random utility models reveal similar preferences for the measured forest attributes in terms of sign and magnitude. The spatial predictions, however, reveal a considerable difference in the spatial pattern of economic benefits from recreation between the two models. These results have implications for current ecosystem service mapping initiatives as they emphasise the need to account for spatial heterogeneity in preferences, and aggregate demand and environmental attributes and infrastructure.     

CAN RECREATION VALUES FOR A LAKE CONSTITUTE A MARKET FOR BANKED AGRICULTURAL WATER?

This paper presents estimates of the recreational use value to prevent the loss of a western lake threatened by diversions of upstream waters that supply it. The recreation demand model used to estimate recreation-related values is the popular repeated nested multinomial logit model. The model is specified to allow an individual to choose when to visit various sites during the season, because site choice is likely to be influenced by water levels that change over the course of the season. The values are compared to agricultural values in order to assess whether the potential recreation demand side of a market for a water bank exists.     

Using Meta-Analysis and GIS for Value Transfer and Scaling Up: Valuing Climate Change Induced Losses of European Wetlands

There is growing policy and academic interest in transferring ecosystem service values from existing valuation studies to other ecosystem sites at a large geographic scale. Despite the evident policy demand for this combined transfer and “scaling up” of values, an approach to value transfer that addresses the challenges inherent in assessing ecosystem changes at a national or regional level is not available. This paper proposes a methodology for scaling up ecosystem service values to estimate the welfare effects of ecosystem change at this larger geographical scale. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to value the impact of climate change on European wetlands for the period 2000–2050. The proposed methodology makes use of meta-analysis to produce a value function. The parameters of the value function include spatial variables on wetland size and abundance, GDP per capita, and population. A geographic information system is used to construct a database of wetland sites in the case study region with information on these spatial variables. Site-specific ecosystem service values are subsequently estimated using the meta-analytic value function. The proposed method is shown to enable the adjustment of transferred values to reflect variation in important spatial variables and to account for changes in the stock of ecosystems.     

Valuing Local Environmental Amenity with Discrete Choice Experiments: Spatial Scope Sensitivity and Heterogeneous Marginal Utility of Income

Using discrete choice experiments we examine preferences for the spatial provision of local environmental improvements in the context of regeneration policies. Amenities we consider are: improvements to areas of open space, recreation facilities and other public spaces; street cleanliness; restoration of derelict properties; and the provision of paths dedicated to cycling and walking. We include the spatial scope of the policy as an attribute, making the trade-off between environmental amenity and its spatial provision explicit. We employ a novel estimator for average willingness to pay (WTP) for mixed logit models with a random cost coefficient, which is robust to the presence of price insensitive respondents and performs well relative to mixed logit estimation in WTP space. We find that the spatial scope of the policy affects both the intensity and heterogeneity of preferences, and that these effects are of statistical and economic significance.     

Amenity driven price effects and conservation reserve site selection: A dynamic linear integer programming approach

Most conservation reserve design models presented in the literature are static and ignore the dynamic economic aspects of site selection. Typically conservation programs operate under time-related (e.g. annual) budgets and purchase land over time in a sequential manner. The uncertainty of land development has been incorporated in a few dynamic reserve selection formulations using stochastic dynamic programming. However, the existing formulations do not explicitly deal with inter-temporal price and location linkages. We address this issue here and present a two-period linear integer programming model for conservation reserve design that incorporates amenity driven price feedback effects inherent in the reserve development problem. In addition, the model includes spatial and ecological criteria. We then use this model to answer the question “How suboptimal is ignoring amenity driven price effects in reserve design models?” We apply the model to artificially generated data sets and compare the results with the results of an iterated static model that considers only one period at a time. We find that the dynamic model with price feedback effects selects sites at a lower per-site cost. The policy implication of this finding is that conservation programs should avoid purchasing land in the same neighborhood over multiple time periods.     

Deriving and Testing Efficient Estimates of WTP Distributions in Destination Choice Models

Estimation of welfare measures is often a dominant driver in the empirical literature on nonmarket valuation. To this end, qualitative choice models based on random utility theory have been widely employed in outdoor recreation studies. A frequent goal of applied studies has been the estimation of welfare changes associated with site attribute changes at recreation sites in order to inform regulatory policy and resource management. We review the evolution of the methodology of random utility theory in this field with a focus on taste heterogeneity models and then focus on the recent proposal of specifying utility in the WTP-space (Train K, Weeks M (2005) Discrete choice models in preference space and willing-to-pay space. In: Scarpa R, Alberini A (eds) Applications of simulation methods in environmental and resource economics, chapter 1. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 1–16). Our empirical application is on outdoor alpine recreation data. We emphasize the efficiency and direct testing that using the maximum simulated likelihood estimator affords to practitioners using the WTP-space approach, and illustrate these with examples.     

Modeling the human-induced spread of an aquatic invasive: The case of the zebra mussel

Ecological evidence indicates that transient recreational boating is the principal overland vector of dispersal for several freshwater invasive species. Understanding boating behavior, and how behavior responds to policy changes, is central to understanding the effectiveness of efforts to halt or slow the spread of aquatic invasives. We develop a framework that combines a recreation demand model of boating behavior with a discrete duration model describing the spatial and temporal spread of an aquatic invasive. The integrated approach allows us to link invasion risk probabilities directly to boating behavior, policy levers, and behavior changes arising from policy shocks. With an application to zebra mussels in Wisconsin we show that explicitly accounting for behavioral responses can dramatically change predictions for the effectiveness of particular policies, in some instances leading to increases in invasions risks at some sites.     

DID THE GREAT RECESSION REDUCE VISITOR SPENDING AND WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR NATURE‐BASED RECREATION? EVIDENCE FROM 2006 AND 2009

Outdoor recreation is a large industry that can diversify public land‐based economies that have traditionally relied upon resource extraction. However, what happens to nature‐based recreation visitor spending and benefits during times of national economic recession? To address this question, we replicate a 2006 high mountain recreation study in the same region 3 years later during the 2009 recession. Results indicate that nature‐based public land recreation in this area did not experience reductions in most categories of visitor spending or total number of visits during the recession. These results imply that nature‐based recreation may represent an economically stable industry in public land mountain economies. Total benefits to the visitors are also quite stable, only dropping from $129 per person per trip in 2006 to $120 in 2009. This 7% drop in willingness to pay is not statistically significant at conventional levels. (JEL Q26)     

Amenity values of spatial configurations of forest landscapes over space and time in the Southern Appalachian Highlands

This research analyzes amenity values of spatial configurations of forest landscapes over space and time in the Southern Appalachian Highlands using geographically weighted regression (GWR) in a hedonic housing-price framework with a census-block group (CBG) dataset. Results show that housing-price response to mean forest-patch size and forest-patch density increased substantially between 1990 and 2000 in a few specific areas with economically significant amenity values. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the resulting amenity-value estimates are evaluated for potential use as site-selection indicators for implementation of forest conservation programs.     

Calibrating spatial models of trade

Empirical spatial models of trade that are based on a mathematical programming specification often exhibit a large discrepancy between the equilibrium solution and the observed demand, supply and levels of trade flows among countries. This discrepancy may be due to several causes. Assuming, however, that a trade model is not misspecified – in the sense that behavior of the economic agents involved in the specific commodity markets has been included in the study and that the relevant policy instruments have been properly taken into account – the cause of discrepancy may be traced either to imprecision of unit transaction costs or to imprecision in the measurement of the demand and supply functions' parameters, or both. Policy assessments based on this type of imprecise models are distorted. This paper presents a methodology for calibrating mathematical programming spatial trade models of increasing complexity, from the one-commodity case to a multi-commodity model with asymmetric slope matrices of demand and supply functions. The proposed calibration procedure identifies corrections of imperfectly measured parameters. The calibrated models generate solutions that exactly reproduce quantities produced and consumed in all countries, as well as trade flows among all pairs of countries, observed in a given base year. Such models may then serve as a springboard for assessing the impact of various policy changes on economic agents in the countries under study.     

Utility theoretic semi-logarithmic incomplete demand systems in a natural experiment: Forest fire impacts on recreational values and use

This study develops a utility theoretic demand model for an arbitrary number of goods that handles correlation between goods and over time. The bivariate compound Poisson estimator is applied to a semi-logarithmic incomplete demand system to estimate the demand for wilderness recreation and the associated welfare measures both prior to and post a 40,000 acre wilderness fire in Washington. Forest fires can simultaneously affect the environmental qualities of many recreational sites; this highlights the need for a utility theoretic demand system approach for modeling consumer behavior that handles the dynamic behavioral and statistical interdependencies over goods and time. Results suggest an increase in consumer welfare per trip post fire, after an initial period of low values, relative to before the fire.     

Non-market Value of Winter Outdoor Recreation in the Swiss Alps: The Case of Val Bedretto

A longstanding interest from environmental economists on winter outdoor recreation has overlooked activities practiced outside the boundaries of winter resorts—e.g. ski mountaineering. This paper implements the Travel Cost Method to estimate consumer surplus per season derived from ski mountaineering and snowshoeing in Val Bedretto—a valley located in the Swiss Alps. In addition, the Contingent Behavior Method is used to estimate the changes in welfare associated with the construction of an alpine center that would provide services aiming to reduce the risk of injury and death associated with winter outdoor recreation. The data is analyzed by means of latent class panel on-site count models. The latent class approach allows us to identify subpopulations that benefit from the alpine center. The results show that 33% of visitors would experience an increase in their consumer surplus per season equivalent to €31 per visitor.     

武汉市城市游憩地空间布局研究

城市游憩地空间布局研究具有明显的实践意义,它为城市规划及区域规划提供依据,满足居民物质文化的需求.在研究各类相关文献的基础上,通过研究武汉市游憩地空间布局的现状及变化特征,指出武汉市游憩地空间布局存在的问题,并提出合理的城市空间布局优化构想.     

Spatial organization, transport, and climate change: Comparing instruments of spatial planning and policy

Approaching the analysis of climate policies from a spatial organization perspective is necessary for realizing both efficient and effective mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In particular, it allows assessing the potential contribution of specific mechanisms of spatial organization and related spatial planning and policy to climate policy goals. So far, this spatial organization angle of climate policy has hardly received attention in the literature. The main sector significantly contributing to GHG emissions and sensitive to spatial organization and planning is urban transport. A qualitative evaluation of the available spatial organization policy options is provided, on the basis of four standard ‘E criteria’ and a decomposition of CO₂ emissions.     

Market structure and competition in transition: results from a spatial analysis

The present article provides first microlevel (indirect) empirical evidence on changes in entry barriers, the determinants of firm profitability as well as the nature of competition for a transition economy. We estimate size thresholds required to support different numbers of firms for several retail and professional service industries in a large number of geographic markets in Slovakia. The 3 time periods in the analysis (1995, 2001 and 2010) characterize different stages of the transition process. Specific emphasis is given to spatial spill-over effects between local markets. Estimation results obtained from a spatial ordered probit model suggest that entry barriers have declined considerably (except for restaurants) and that the intensity of competition has increased on average. We further find that demand spill-overs and/or the effects associated with a positive correlation in unobservable explanatory variables seem to outweigh negative spill-over effects caused by competitive forces between neighbouring cities and villages. The importance of these spatial spill-over effects differs across industries.     

Species protection from current reserves: Economic and biological considerations, spatial issues and policy evaluation

The expansion of nature reserves is an important public policy strategy for the protection of biological diversity. In this paper, the authors use integer programming model structures derived from Location Set Covering Problem and Maximal Covering Location Problem approaches of location science as tools for selectively augmenting nature reserve sites for special status species protection. The linear programming models presented incorporate the following: biological constraints in the form of species' area needs; economic constraints in the form of opportunity costs of converting smaller administrative districts into nature reserves; and spatial constraints in the form of required connectivity among districts in site selection. The construction of a taxonomic data set for Thailand enables the implementation of the models, the comparison of results and evaluation of the differences in outcomes. The models build upon the existing nature reserve network in Thailand and suggest various public policy options that would augment the reserves for enhancing species protection and for possibly improving national conservation efforts at lowest costs.     

Divestment of the English Forestry Estate: An economically sound choice?

This paper evaluates if the proposed divestment of the English Forestry Commission Estate in 2010 was economically rational. The analysis is composed of two parts. First, an amenity value threshold for continued public access to the Estate was estimated. Based on a stated value of the Estate (i.e. £700 million) and assuming a discount rate of 3.5% the Estate should never have been considered for sale. However, assuming a discount rate of 5% then the associated critical amenity value was estimated to be approximately £5 million. Second, travel cost methods were employed to value public access to the Forest of Dean as a proxy for the Estate. An on-site survey was conducted that yielded estimates of consumer surplus that exceed the critical amenity value of the Estate by two orders of magnitude even when we employ a discount rate above that typically used in public policy decision making. Therefore, we conclude that the policy to divest the Estate for £700 million was not ‘a good deal’ and as such the resulting policy reversal was an economically sensible decision.     

Real Estate Market Policy and Household Demand for Housing

This paper used an estimated mixed multinomial logit model of household housing demand to examine the impact of four housing market‐related policies on a stated preference survey sample. The estimated demand probability function suggested that household choice behaviour does show huge heterogeneity. The estimated results were then employed to examine the effects of the policies. We estimated the potential disequilibrium between demand and supply under the construction‐size‐limitation policy, demonstrated that the efficient movers' subsidy increases along with the household income, and simulated the changes in housing demand when tax policy is changed. We demonstrate the potential usefulness of our modelling framework in assisting policy‐making decisions. Our model also partially explains the failures and controversies of the latest real‐estate intervention policies in China.