Exports to Smuggle and Smuggling Technologies*

Our analysis is motivated by cases of cigarette smuggling in Canada and in the UK. In the 1990s, domestic cigarettes were legally exported to be subsequently illegally imported. At first, smuggling was done by individual consumers who bought cigarettes abroad and brought them back through policed points of entry. This Mom and Pop smuggling was a mechanism to implement a second‐degree price discrimination scheme by cigarette manufacturers. Regrets from committing tax evasion and labels on exported cigarettes packs permit vertical differentiation of illegal and legal cigarettes. Paradoxically, labeling measures can make illegal sales more resilient to tax reductions, and stricter border enforcement encourages a switch to a less benign smuggling technology exclusive to criminal organizations. High export taxes terminated export‐to‐smuggle schemes, but brought about a surge of counterfeit cigarettes. Because of a second‐degree price discrimination scheme, the elimination of taxes need not suffice to eradicate smuggling.     

Horizontal and vertical indirect tax competition: Theory and some evidence from the USA

This paper provides a simple but general theoretical framework for analyzing simultaneous vertical and horizontal competition in excise taxes, which includes several previous contributions as special cases. It allows for both elastic individual demand for the taxed good, and cross-border shopping (and smuggling). It then estimates equations informed by the theory on a panel of US state and federal excise taxes on cigarettes and gasoline. The results are generally consistent with the theory, when the characteristics of the markets for the goods are taken into account. Taxes in neighboring states have a significant and large effect in the case of cigarettes. The possibility of smuggling cigarettes from low tax states also plays a role. In the case of gasoline, taxes in neighboring states do not play a significant role; however, there is evidence in this case of vertical competition.     

Political Commodities and Sovereignty Management: Cigarette Smuggling across Brazil’s Southern Borders

Cigarette smuggling across Brazil’s borders with Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina involves large amounts of merchandise and money. The public in Brazil associates this activity with images of war, contamination and other threats to state sovereignty. This article assesses the political meaning and uses of smuggling in order to challenge the assumption that smuggling threatens the sovereignty of the Brazilian state. With the help of a literature review, fieldwork at the border, interviews with practitioners, a cartographic analysis of news coverage of seizures, the tobacco production and consumption, the market and its regulation, actors, routes and networks were mapped and analysed. In the Southern Cone of South America, an integrated transborder territory emerges where tobacco is cultivated, prepared and distributed, and cigarettes are manufactured, transported, sold and smoked. These flows cross distinct legal framings and lead to an increase in danger and profit. Thus, the market is segmented between national legal products and imported cigarettes that are cheaper and illegal but easily obtainable. The concepts of political commodities understood as the acts of powerful agents who barter advantages related to their authority and sovereignty management, understood as the use of legal (state-managed) structures according to private interests at different scale levels, provide useful theoretical tools to examine the territorialisation of the cigarette smuggling and its control by the state and private agents. We conclude that tobacco production and trade, as well as cigarette smuggling, are connected via agents who use the border to build the legal market and, consequently, to increase the trade value of national tobacco. Cigarette smuggling across the state borders of the Southern Cone combines networks and places in such a way that is integrated into the legal economy and the national territories, and it does not defy state’s sovereignty.     

Migrant smuggling

We analyze a model of the migrant smuggling market where smugglers differ in the capacity to exploit their clients' labor at the destination. We suggest that destination countries with limited resources may prefer to improve the apprehension of smugglers and their clients at the border rather than inland, although either one of these anti-smuggling measures would reduce migrant exploitation. The reason is twofold. First, even if the resulting improvement in border apprehension alone cannot eliminate smuggling, it can do so when combined with a severe penalty for smuggling. Second, even if it is impracticable to set the penalty for smuggling sufficiently high, improved border apprehension reduces smuggling by discouraging existing exploitative smugglers from smuggling, whereas improved inland apprehension either maintains or even increases it by inducing them and those who are not currently smuggling to take up nonexploitative smuggling.     

Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model

This study investigates the causes and consequences of import and export smuggling and estimates its relative size in Iran from 1970 to 2002. Multiple Indicators–Multiple Causes (MIMIC) modeling and trade misinvoicing are used to compute the latent variable of smuggling. The results indicate that the penalty rate for smuggling and the quality of economic and political institutions reduce smuggling, while tariffs and black market premia increase the incentives for illegal trade. More trade openness is associated with greater illegal trade in the case of Iran. On average, smuggling in Iran has been approximately 13% of total trade.     

Smuggling around the world: evidence from a structural equation model

This article uses a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model to analyse the determinants of smuggling. The analysis reveals that higher corruption and a lower rule of law encourage smuggling. Tariffs and trade restrictions are important push factors, while a higher Black Market Premium (BMP) discourages smugglers. Based on the MIMIC estimates, we calculate an index of smuggling which provides a ranking for 54 countries. We find that smuggling is rampant in Cameroon, Pakistan and Kenya while it is least prevalent in Switzerland, Finland and Sweden.     

On the determinants of optimal border enforcement

We extend the current immigration-enforcement literature by incorporating both the practice of people smuggling and a role for non-wage income into a two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model. We use the model economy to examine three questions. First, how does technological progress in the smuggling industry affect the level of migration and capital accumulation for a given level of enforcement? Second, do changes in border enforcement affect the level of migration, capital accumulation, and smuggling activity? Third, is the optimal level of enforcement sensitive to technological progress in the smuggling industry? We show that the government chooses to devote resources to border enforcement only if the deterrent effect on smugglers is large enough. Otherwise, it is not worth taxing host-country natives as the taxes paid will more than offset any income gain resulting from fewer migrants.     

Tobacco consumption and policy in the United Kingdom

In recent years, several structural changes and sequences of shocks have occurred in the market for tobacco in the UK, including an explosive growth in smuggling. This study examines whether it is still possible to estimate a reliable, plausible tobacco demand equation from time series data for the UK whilst allowing for all of the various shocks and structural changes. A second objective of this study is to use the estimated demand function to evaluate tobacco policy in the UK, including the scope for using tax increases to achieve reduced consumption and increased revenues. It is found that smuggling has diminished the revenue yield of higher rates of duty, but total consumption of tobacco has been reduced. In addition to the introduction of further measures to control smuggling, policy may need to place more emphasis in the future on health campaigns and smoking restrictions.     

Smuggling and Bhagwati's Nonequivalence Between Tariffs and Quotas

The authors extend Professor Bhagwati's analysis about the nonequivalence between trade policy instruments when domestic production is monopolized and the terms of trade are endogenous, by allowing for smuggling. They show that the dominance of the ad valorem tariff over the quota is not robust. Tariffication can lower welfare even when the level of illegal imports is quite small. However, tariffication with a specific tariff is always beneficial because the specific tariff dominates the ad valorem tariff and the quota with or without smuggling. Smuggling (or the threat) also tends to lower the second–best tariff/quota, and increases welfare when imports are restricted by a quota, but lowers it under a tariff.     

Smuggling, non‐fundamental uncertainty, and parallel market exchange rate volatility

Abstract.  We explore a model where smuggling and a parallel currency market arise, owing to government restrictions that prevent agents from legally holding foreign exchange. Despite such restrictions, agents are able to diversify their savings, holding both domestic and parallel foreign cash, basing their portfolio allocation on current and prospective parallel exchange rates. We attribute movements in parallel rates to non‐fundamental uncertainty. The model generates equilibria with both positive and negative parallel premia and correlations between illegal trade and the premium. The model has the novel implication that currency speculation drives smuggling, affecting real activities in all sectors of the economy. JEL classification: F31     

Financial Support from the Family Network and Illegal Immigration

Barriers to immigration of low‐skilled workers from developing countries into the advanced countries prevent many potential migrants from leaving their countries of origin. With very low home‐country wages in relation to the cost of undocumented migration, the opportunity to migrate often hinges on the possibility of obtaining credit from a human smuggling organization or family and friends. This paper examines the conditions under which migration is optimal for an individual who lacks liquid assets, with a focus on alternative options for financing migration costs. One is by accumulating the required amount of savings out of source‐country income, with or without financial support from the family or social network. The other is debt‐bonded migration, which involves borrowing from a smuggling organization and paying off the loan while working in the host country. I find that greater financial support from the family network increases the attractiveness of debt‐bonded relative to self‐financed migration.     

On tariffs and smuggling

The purpose of this paper is to show that if a country wants to eliminate smuggling, it may have to increase rather than decrease the tariff. This paradoxical case could take place if the country in question is large and the foreign elasticity of demand for imports is inelastic.     

THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTES IN TAIWAN: DOMESTIC VERSUS IMPORTED CIGARETTES

This paper uses annual time series data from Taiwan to empirically estimate the demand for cigarettes, in consideration of the import liberation of foreign cigarettes and of antismoking campaigns. The results indicate that the price elasticities for domestic and imported cigarettes are -0.6 and-1.1, respectively. The cross-price elasticities are 0.08 for domestic and 2.78 for imported cigarettes. The spread of cigarette health information has had a significantly negative effect on cigarette consumption. In addition, this study offers mild support to the argument that opening the market to imported cigarettes has resulted in significant increases in overall cigarette consumption. (JEL D12, 118)     

从鄂君启金节看战国持节贸易

持节贸易是战国时期一种重要的贸易管理制度,是现代对外贸易许可证形式的雏形.它不仅是中国战国时期国家管理经济职能的外在形式和国家税收的重要来源,而且是稽查走私,保护特定产业的重要手段.为中国现代较为完善的对外贸易管理制度提供了源渊和基础.     

Performance,Representation and the Economics of Border Control in Uzbekistan

This article explores the contradictions and intersections between the performative and economic aspects of state boundary control. From 1999 onwards, Uzbekistan's formal trade with its neighbours declined dramatically, whilst cross-border smuggling mushroomed. This article examines these developments, using both an economic analysis, and a theoretical approach to the study of international boundaries derived from political geography, anthropology and ‘borders theory’. Methodologically, it employs trade-flow analysis, discourse study and ethnography to construct an account of how an apparently economically counterproductive policy has symbolic and performative value to the state. The changes in trade patterns were largely due to the unilateral introduction of a new and highly disruptive border and customs control policy, which dramatically increased transportation costs, precipitating a growth in smuggling in which some state officials themselves colluded. Economically, whilst this policy would thus appear harmful to the state, the article suggests that border control policies also had a theatrical function related to the performance of national identity and the perpetuation of the incumbent regime. It concludes with policy recommendations addressed to both Central Asian states and international donors.     

公安机关对缴获易制毒化学品的绿色处置

当前,随着国际毒情的变化,合成毒品的种类越来越多,易制毒化学品的非法走私情况也越来越严重。公安机关禁毒部门每年都缴获大量的易制毒化学品,对缴获的易制毒化学品实行无害化处理,是公安机关禁毒部门当前面临的最棘手的问题。文章对当前公安机关禁毒部门缴获及处置易制毒化学品的现状进行介绍,分析了公安机关禁毒部门对易制毒化学品处置不当存在的生态环境的隐患,提出公安机关对缴获易制毒化学品绿色处置的建议。     

Rationally addicted to drinking and smoking?

When modelling demand for addictive consumption goods, the most widely used framework is the rational addiction model proposed by Becker and Murphy. This paper extends the rational addiction model to include two addictive consumption goods, alcohol and cigarettes, and using aggregate annual time series on sales volumes for the period 1955–1999, estimates the aggregate demand for these goods in Sweden, where OLS estimates are compared to GMM estimates allowing for possible endogeneity of lagged and lead consumption. First, the demand for alcohol and cigarettes are estimated as separate equations and it is found that alcohol demand is quite well described by the rational addiction model while the same is not true for cigarettes. The own-price elasticities are negative, and alcohol demand is more elastic than cigarette demand. The cross-price elasticities are also negative, showing that alcohol and cigarettes are complements. Since consumption of alcohol and cigarettes are probably simultaneous decisions, the demand for these goods is estimated as a system of equations and it is found that alcohol demand is still positively affected by lagged and lead consumption while cigarette demand is not. It is also found that the elasticities obtained are now generally smaller compared to when estimating the equations separately.     

Migrant smuggling when exploitation is private information

This study contributes to the small theoretical literature on human smuggling by assuming for the first time asymmetric information in analysis. The assumption raises the possibility of an adverse selection equilibrium where only exploitative smugglers are employed at a low fee even though migrants are willing to pay non‐exploitative smugglers a high fee. More important, I find that improved inland apprehension of migrants may increase the incidence of migrant exploitation while failing to decrease smuggling attempts. Furthermore, improved border apprehension of migrants and smugglers may not affect the market at all.     

Profiling,Screening, and Criminal Recruitment

We model major criminal activity as a game in which a law enforcement officer chooses the rate at which to screen different population groups, and a criminal organization (e.g., drug cartel, terrorist cell) chooses the observable characteristics of its recruits. Our model best describes smuggling or terrorism activities at borders, airports, and other security checkpoints. The most effective law enforcement policy imposes only moderate restrictions on the officer's ability to profile. In contrast to models of decentralized crime, requiring equal treatment never improves the effectiveness of law enforcement.     

On the motivations for the dual-use of electronic and traditional cigarettes

We apply a classical economic categorization of preferences to identify the motivations of dual-users of electronic and traditional cigarettes. The responses of 2406 US adults (including 413 dual-users) in 2015 were collected using a novel online survey along with a follow-up in 2016 of 143 of these adults (68 dual-users). A sizeable minority of 37% of dual-users reported viewing electronic and conventional cigarettes primarily as complements. Of those who had never smoked or used electronic cigarettes, only 27% thought the complementarity motive would be primary. Dual-user motivations were associated with quit-attempt, cessation methods, gender and age. 1 year on, there was a positive relationship between the level of complementarity in the dual-user’s motives and their change in self-reported traditional cigarette consumption. It is concluded that the application of a canonical economic classification of preferences may reveal important heterogeneities among the dual-user population.