经济学中的期望效用原理应用研究

期望效用原理是经济学中定量化研究的重要工具之一,对经济学的研究起了很大的推动作用,期望效用原理是建立在一系列公理体系之上的,在实际应用中有较大局限性,本文对期望效用原理给予简介并加以评述。     

从前景理论看经济学的发展方向

生活中的经济活动并不完全能用期望效用理论来解释。本文通过提出前景理论和幸福学在解释不确定情况下决策的有效性分析,介绍了经济学发展的新的动态。     

保险需求行为的经济学分析

保险是不确定性条件下的一种经济活动,其本质是不同状态下的财产索取权交易.本文将运用期望效用理论对不同市场条件下的保险需求决策的形成、变化及其对决策者福利的影响进行分析,为人们进行保险需求行为及其特征的经验研究提供一种逻辑视角.     

风险决策的范式转变:从规范到描述

风险决策是现实中人们面临的一个普遍问题。传统上对风险决策的研究是基于数学的规范范式;现在另一种基于心理学的描述范式正在兴起。本文通过实例详细阐释期望值理论、期望效用理论和前景理论的理论演进过程,揭示了对风险决策研究的这种范式转变。     

基于前景理论的大学生网购决策行为分析 ——以安徽省大学生群体为例

大学生是网购大军中的特殊群体,其网购行为往往呈现出有限理性特征.这种有限理性行为无法通过期望效用理论完全刻画.为此,本文以前景理论为理论基础,建立一种能有效描述大学生网购决策行为的分析方法.首先,运用前景理论建立大学生网购决策行为模型;然后,通过调查问卷对所建立的模型进行实证检验;最后,基于期望效用理论,通过实证案例实...     

一种管理创新期望效用曲线模型的创建及分析

管理创新对经济发展有着重要的意义,它揭示了组织不断为适应环境而优化生产要素的变革规律。它的核心是科学准确的决策,这对组织发展至关重要。本文利用期望效用理论,建立了一个动态的管理创新期望效用曲线模型,从而有利于科学决策。     

浅析效用理论与保费计算原理

本文比较了各种保费计算原理的性质,研究期望效用理论、对偶效用理论在保费计算原理中的作用,对传统上保费计算原理的可加性提出了疑问.     

期望效用理论与前景理论之比较

本文分析了传统的期望效用理论和前景理论的区别和各自的运用,并进一步展望了前景理论的发展。     

将幸福变量引入决策——对效用最大化法则下个体经济行为的补充

众多研究发现增加财富并不一定能增加幸福,国外幸福经济学提出改变传统经济学效用最大化法则,以幸福最大化作为人类行为决策的最终目的.文章分析了幸福经济学与其他经济理论不同的效用最大化曲线.应用幸福经济学前沿理论对微观层面的个体行为决策提出措施和建议,从而推动个体提升幸福水平.     

基于效用理论的企业招聘偏好分析

经济学领域通常利用效用理论分析消费者如何进行理性消费决策,了解消费者的消费行为。企业在招聘人才时,其行为也是一种消费选择行为。因此效用理论可以应用到企业招聘行为偏好分析中,分析企业作为消费主体时,如何对人才所具备的各种素质要求进行选择。得出研究结论,并对企业与求职者活动进行指导。     

PERCEIVED RISK AND CONSUMER DECISION MAKING

The home economist has long been interested in effective family and consumer decision making and has tended to take a holistic or macro approach to decision theory. Recently, some applications of normative decision theory to consumer decision making—including the creation of rules for dealing with risk and uncertainty—have been advanced in home management textbooks. Since the early 1960s, consumer behaviour researchers in other disciplines have been developing a behavioural, micro-decision perspective centring upon the presence of perceived risk in the purchase decision of any customer. The empirical literature in home economics does not appear to have dealt with either of these perspectives. This paper identifies perceived risk as a useful analytical variable in the study of consumer product and store decisions and presents empirical data depicting the dual components of perceived risk and its four dimensions. The relationship of the normative and behavioural approaches to decision risk is discussed and implications for future research and application in home economics are identified.     

Multi-agent interaction processes: From oligopoly theory to decentralized artificial intelligence

This article examines the group processes studied in oligopoly theory and in decentralized artificial intelligence. We develop a unifying perspective for the research on the behavior of autonomous interacting agents. Among the many questions of interest in these disciplines are the ways of creating and reaching cooperation by a group of self-interested independent decentralized agents. In this respect, the models and results of oligopoly theory can also be used both in decentralized artificial intelligence and in many other areas of research, such as group decision making, negotiation support, and organizational theory. In particular, the important idea of reshaping goals with strategic information sharing and transmission—incentive communication—has received little attention outside the field of economics. On the other hand, oligopoly theory and experimental economics can especially benefit from the computational methods and tools of artificial intelligence and modern decision support technology. To demonstrate this we have built a prototype of an experimental market analysis environment. Its potential in the analysis of group processes is illustrated with examples.     

供应链柔性决策机制的建立

在对供应链的决策机制的研究过程中,大部分都是源于传统的决策理论方法。在传统的决策理论研究领域一般分为两个阵营,一个是基于理性决策研究,另一个是基于行为规则的决策理论研究。对于前者大部研究者在假设决策者是理性的前提下给予了研究,在这个领域里往往会运用博弈论的知识对决策行为给予剖析。但是由于市场环境的复杂多变,使得理性决策有时在一定的条件下存在着极大的局限性。尤其是特定的供应链网络系统内,在面对多个决策主体在空间与时间上的非同步性时,如何对决策者之间的关系进行协调以及时地应对外界环境的变化,从而使供应链整体效益最优,是研究的主要目的。基于规则决策的观点,用群决策支持系统原理(GDSS)为供应链网络设立一种更为柔性化的决策机制。     

Rational Moralists and Moral Rationalists Value-Based Management: Model,Criterion and Validation

This paper considers ethical decision making by blending three streams of related research: cognitive moral development of the decision maker, rational choice theory and a subjective expected utility model. Ethical dilemmas can be defined as situations where moral certainty is compromised by rational cognition. In this paper, the authors assume that some people use a morality-first perspective and others a rationality-first perspective. Ethical scenarios were written and used to test hypotheses derived from this perspective. The instrument developed was shown to be in need of further refinement. Results are discussed in terms of relationships between participant-characteristics variables overall and subscale responses to the ethical scenarios.     

SHACKLE AND MODERN DECISION THEORY

The paper discusses the role of George L.S. Shackle in fostering an unconventional approach to individual decision making. Up until the early 1970s Shackle was the single critic of the probabilistic approach to decision making who proposed an alternative formal corpus for dealing with uncertainty. The main aim of the paper is to analyse Shackle's non‐probabilistic conceptualization of individual decisions under uncertainty from a specific viewpoint, namely that of a possible connection between his theory and one of the most interesting recent approaches to decision under uncertainty, the so‐called non‐additive probability approach of Gilboa and Schmeidler. The paper shows that these developments in modern decision theory take Shackle's issue seriously and confirm that the reliance of strict Bayesian theory on probabilistic judgements based on point‐probability estimates, a reliance that Shackle intended to oppose, is untenable. Non‐additive decision theory also provides a usage of non‐additive probability distributions in choice that is an alternative to Shackle's approach of using a qualitative notion of probability, such as potential surprise.     

BACK TO THE ORDINALIST REVOLUTION: BEHAVIORAL ECONOMIC CONCERNS IN EARLY MODERN CONSUMER CHOICE THEORY

The paper argues that theoretical work on consumer choice theory during the early 20th century addressed some of the same issues discussed in recent behavioral economics. This is not generally recognized because the discussion was tied up with the integrability question, the theoretical framework did not involve risky choice or expected utility theory, and the relevant evidence was introspective rather than experimental. The paper makes the case for the similarity and discusses why it is important.     

发展循环经济是东北老工业基地持续健康发展的路径

东北地区资源丰富,物产富饶。建国以来,形成了以煤炭、钢铁、森工、石油为主体的老工业基地。近年来,东北老工业基地面临着资源濒临枯竭,下岗失业严重,替代产业发展缓慢,生态环境恶化等严峻形势。应以系统论为指导,规划经济社会发展;遵循经济规律,用循环经济原则指导经济发展;开展循环经济研究和实践,构建循环经济社会系统。     

从经济系统的复杂性看现代经济学理论的发展

传统的经济学理论虽然给人类经济发展作出过重大贡献,但随着社会经济的发展日显其局限}生。本文通过对经济学发展吏的回顾,总结了传统西方经济学理论假设的荒谬性和经济学基本理论的局限性;分析了由于具有主动性的人参与到经济系统中而产生的个体的主动性、相互作用的非线性、整体发展的不确定性、信息和信息系统的重要作用等复杂性特．最;介绍了复杂系统科学的发展,分析了复杂系统科学的马克思主义哲学原理;最后探讨了现代经济学理论的发展方向。     

EVIDENCE THEORY: A MATHEMATICAL FRAMEWORK FOR UNPREDICTABLE HYPOTHESES

Shafer's evidence theory is a branch of the mathematics of uncertain reasoning that allows for novel possibilities to be conceived by a decision‐maker. Many of its findings exhibit striking similarities with an alternative decision theory put forward by Shackle in the 1950s, before expected utility maximization monopolized the scene. Evidence theory does not attempt to formalize the emergence of novelties, but it is a suitable framework for reconstructing the formation of beliefs when novelties appear. An application to decision‐making in the biotech and pharmaceutical industries illustrates the potentialities of evidence theory, as well as its shortcomings.