金砖国家服务贸易国际竞争力研究——基于贸易增加值和全球价值链的视角北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章以金砖国家为研究对象,基于贸易增加值和全球价值链的视角,利用贸易增加值数据库,采用净出口显示性比较优势指数、全球价值链地位指数和参与度指数,测算金砖国家服务贸易相对竞争力和在全球生产价值链中的位置,对比分析金砖国家服务贸易的国际竞争力。研究结果表明:金砖国家服务业总体处于较为明显的竞争劣势,但在服务业细分行业中具有一定比较优势;金砖国家服务贸易处于全球价值链的下游,呈低附加值出口的特点;金砖国家服务业的开放程度在加大。因此,金砖国家应发挥互补优势,大力发展服务业高附加值环节,提高在全球价值链中的地位。     

金砖国家服务贸易国际竞争力研究——基于贸易增加值和全球价值链的视角

文章以金砖国家为研究对象,基于贸易增加值和全球价值链的视角,利用贸易增加值数据库,采用净出口显示性比较优势指数、全球价值链地位指数和参与度指数,测算金砖国家服务贸易相对竞争力和在全球生产价值链中的位置,对比分析金砖国家服务贸易的国际竞争力。研究结果表明:金砖国家服务业总体处于较为明显的竞争劣势,但在服务业细分行业中具有一定比较优势;金砖国家服务贸易处于全球价值链的下游,呈低附加值出口的特点;金砖国家服务业的开放程度在加大。因此,金砖国家应发挥互补优势,大力发展服务业高附加值环节,提高在全球价值链中的地位。     

增加值贸易下金砖国家服务贸易竞争力比较分析

运用增加值贸易数据,重新测度金砖国家服务贸易的国际竞争力,结果表明:增加值核算法下,金砖国家整体服务贸易出口下降,但市场占有率更高,贸易逆差也更小,服务贸易发展潜力比传统核算法下大;虽然整体服务贸易比较劣势变大(除印度比较优势更高外),但和发达国家相比,金砖国家某些细分行业仍有相当优势,因此其服务贸易发展亟需结构性调整;在传统服务业上金砖国家的竞争性较大,而现代服务业方面互补性较强。     

金砖国家服务贸易国际竞争力的比较研究

本文通过显性比较优势指数、显性竞争优势指数、贸易竞争优势指数以及国际市场占有率,对金砖国家服务贸易国际竞争力进行比较,并依据这4个指标,采用偏差平方最小法计算出金砖国家服务贸易国际竞争力的综合评价值。结果表明,五国中服务贸易国际竞争力最强的是印度,而我国服务贸易总体上不具有比较优势并且国际竞争力逐渐减弱。最后,根据波特的国家竞争优势理论提出了提升我国服务贸易国际竞争力的对策建议。     

中美两国在印巴俄市场的贸易竞争关系

中美两国是印巴俄这3个金砖国家的主要贸易伙伴,从贸易额来看,中美两国在这3个市场具有此消彼涨的贸易关系,这种贸易关系具有竞争性吗?为此,本文运用贸易相似度指数,基于产品贸易结构和产品贸易市场占有率分析,考察了中美两国在印巴俄市场的贸易竞争关系。研究表明:(1)使用HS 4分位数据显示,中美在印巴俄市场上不存在显著的贸易竞争关系。(2)在3国市场上,中美两国贸易关系表现不同。在印度市场上,中美两国的贸易竞争程度波动较大,且出口竞争程度最高;在巴西市场上,中美两国的贸易竞争程度变化小;在俄罗斯市场上,中美两国的贸易竞争程度呈增长趋势,且进口竞争程度最高。据此本文认为,中国在发展与印巴俄贸易时需要注重发挥自身比较优势,优化产业结构,并积极通过互惠协议等措施来深化金砖国家间贸易合作。同时,可积极推进贸易的本币结算,以促进中国与印巴俄金砖国家之间的贸易,藉此分散中美之间的贸易摩擦风险。     

金砖五国服务贸易竞争力比较分析

在全球经济疲软的背景下，发展服务贸易将成为金砖五国产业转型升级、助推经济增长的重要途径。以金砖五国的服务贸易为研究对象，通过分析世贸组织数据库中2014—2020年各国的服务贸易规模以及对服务贸易国际市场占有率、服务贸易优势指数、服务贸易显示性比较优势指数进行测算和对比的基础上，找出金砖五国服务贸易的比较优势和未来发展方向，从而为金砖五国在服务贸易领域的合作提出对策和建议。     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易竞争性研究:基于产品域和市场域的双重视角

文章基于UN Comtrade数据库分别从产品域和市场域视角对2000~2016年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易竞争关系进行了测度。产品域层面的测算结果表明,中国的竞争优势主要表现在劳动密集型产品方面,但其贸易竞争力呈现出不断下降的趋势;中国在资本和技术密集型产品上的贸易竞争力不断增强;中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间的贸易竞争性较低。市场域层面的测算结果表明,中国与"一带一路"主要沿线国家在全球市场的出口相似度高于美国市场,且出口相似度在美国和全球市场均不断提高。在此基础上,文章基于Porter的"钻石模型"对中国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易竞争性的影响因素进行了实证检验,研究结果显示:产品域视角下生产要素、需求条件、关联产业和企业战略对产品的竞争优势具有显著的异质性影响;市场域视角下"一带一路"沿线国家的要素禀赋和FDI与两国间的出口相似度负相关,而技术水平、市场规模和金融发展水平对其贸易竞争关系具有显著的正向作用。     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易竞争性研究:基于产品域和市场域的双重视角北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章基于UN Comtrade数据库分别从产品域和市场域视角对2000~2016年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易竞争关系进行了测度。产品域层面的测算结果表明,中国的竞争优势主要表现在劳动密集型产品方面,但其贸易竞争力呈现出不断下降的趋势;中国在资本和技术密集型产品上的贸易竞争力不断增强;中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间的贸易竞争性较低。市场域层面的测算结果表明,中国与"一带一路"主要沿线国家在全球市场的出口相似度高于美国市场,且出口相似度在美国和全球市场均不断提高。在此基础上,文章基于Porter的"钻石模型"对中国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易竞争性的影响因素进行了实证检验,研究结果显示:产品域视角下生产要素、需求条件、关联产业和企业战略对产品的竞争优势具有显著的异质性影响;市场域视角下"一带一路"沿线国家的要素禀赋和FDI与两国间的出口相似度负相关,而技术水平、市场规模和金融发展水平对其贸易竞争关系具有显著的正向作用。     

全球价值链背景下中国产业国际竞争力动态变迁及国际比较北大核心CSSCISSCI

随着全球价值链的深入发展,一国出口产品中蕴含了大量国外成分,科学测度产业国际竞争力需要基于全球生产工序的数据。文章构建了基于出口增加值的显示性比较优势指数(NRCA),利用世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)2016年最新发布的全球投入产出表数据,测算和比较分析了2000~2014年中国与其他主要经济体的产业国际竞争力的水平及动态变迁。研究发现:中国产业国际竞争优势在研究期间主要集中在制造业,尤其是劳动密集型制造业,但随着人口红利的消失有不断减弱趋势;与此相反,资本和知识密集型制造业实现了比较优势的提升,推动中国制造业国际竞争水平上升。自2000年以来,中国服务业出口整体国际竞争力呈现了一定程度的提升,但存在产业差异性,其中劳动和知识密集型服务业的国际竞争优势不断增强,而资本密集型服务业则由比较优势转变为比较劣势。至于初级产品和资源产品,其国际竞争力不断下降,从2007年起低于世界平均水平。     

所见非所得:增加值贸易统计下的中国对外贸易特征

在全球化生产背景下,国际贸易的主要构成不再是最终产品而是中间产品,传统的贸易统计方式无法反映各国在各个环节中的真实贡献与实际收益。本文基于OECD增加值贸易数据来分析中国对外贸易的特征,研究发现:首先,无论是进出口额还是双边贸易差额,按增加值衡量要远远小于按总贸易额衡量的情况,这表明传统贸易统计会产生贸易额远大于实际贸易利得的"统计假象"。其次,中国出口额中隐含了外国增加值,这些增加值构成了被"重复计算"的贸易额。从空间分布来看,这些外国增加值来源地主要集中于日本、韩国、美国和德国。再次,各行业出口额中的国内增加值比例呈现出持续上升趋势,国外增加值比例持续下降,这说明中国出口结构正在不断改善,即从国外增加值高的加工贸易转向国内增加值高的一般贸易。最后,制造业出口额中包含了很大比例的服务增加值,并且各制造业出口额中的服务增加值比例不断上升,这表明中国制造业的出口越来越依赖于服务业的投入和发展。     

Empirical Analysis of the Structure of Sino-US Agricultural Trade

This paper empirically analyzes the structure of agricultural trade between China and the USA from 1996 to 2005, using different trade indexes such as the Grubel—Lloyd Index, the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, the Finger—Kreinin Similitude Index and the Export Diversification Index, with a focus on the issues impeding Sino‐US agricultural trade. We found that over the period of 1996 to 2005, inter‐industry trade outweighed intra‐industry trade in Sino‐US agricultural trade, and that bilateral trade was more complementary than competitive. At the same time, China's agricultural exports were more diversified than USA exports, but China's degree of diversification steadily declined during the sample period. The findings indicate that there exists great potential for further development of agricultural trade between China and the USA, and that positive and effective trade policies will result in maximization of potential agricultural trade development and will bring forth mutual benefits to both countries.     

Is there a link between BRIC foreign direct investment and SADC export performance?

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries have agreed to strengthen their economic ties, thus paving the way for enhanced trade and investment performance. South Africa's strategic value in BRICS is that it is a gateway to the opportunity-rich Southern African Development Community (SADC). By using South Africa as a production hub for exports to the surrounding region, foreign investors would have ready access to neighbouring markets. This article addresses the question of whether, and in what ways, foreign direct investment (FDI) from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries to the SADC influences the SADC's export performance. A series of empirical analyses revealed a positive causation between BRIC FDI and SADC exports, offering a clear incentive for the SADC to rejuvenate its trade and investment policies and structures, and strengthen its ties with BRIC countries in the interests of attracting more FDI and building a strong and sustainable export sector.     

Unveiling the true value of across-strait trade: The global value chain approach

Due to the pervasive nature of value chains, an increasing amount of imported intermediate components and raw materials from other countries are entangled in Taiwan's exports to Mainland China. This circumstance leads to odd across-trait bilateral trade amounts and surpluses favorable towards Taiwan. The purposes of this paper are applying Johnson and Noguera (2012) to extricate value-added exports earned by Taiwan from China and Wang, Wei, and Zhu (2013) to decompose Taiwan's gross exports to China into various meaningful components. The two issues are related to trade in value added and value added in trade. Specifically, the former explores the value added embedded in the source country's exports to the absorbing country as final demand, regardless of whether those goods are directly or indirectly arriving at the absorbing country. The latter only looks where the value added is originated regardless of where it is ultimately absorbed. We show both concepts aim to measure a country's value added from its trades, but from different angles. Each has its own distinct meaning. They are related, but not completely the same.The inter-country input–output (ICIO) table used in this paper comes from the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) (Timmer et al., 2015 and Dietzenbacher et al., 2013). Empirical results indicate that Taiwan's export values to Mainland China shrink by 64.3% when bilateral trades are measured in value-added terms. Furthermore, Taiwan's trade surplus toward China also decreases by 65.2% under this measure. From the viewpoint of value added in trade, the share of value added in Taiwan's gross exports to China continued to decrease and reached 50.9% in 2011, while the components of foreign value added and double counted terms kept growing in recent years.     

Trade in factor income and the US-China trade balance

US multindoational enterprises sell considerable amounts of products to China's domestic consumers that are “made” in either China or other countries. However, these sales are not counted as US exports to China. To account for this, we propose a beyond-borders approach to measuring trade flows that explicitly considers firm ownership, termed “trade in factor income (TiFI),” that defines the US-owned factor income induced by China's final demand as US exports to China. Applying this approach to OECD data, we find that on average from 2005 to 2016 in TiFI terms, US exports to China were 20.34% and 8.21% greater, China's exports to the US were 1.64% and 16.04% less, and the US trade deficits with China were 17.4% and 32.0% less than the trade figures reported in value added and gross terms, respectively. The concept of TiFI transforms trade measures from a territory-based “made in” label to a factor income-based “created by” label.     

What are China's real gains within global value chains? Measuring domestic value added in China's exports of manufactures

This paper aims to investigate China's gains of participating in global value chains (GVCs) in terms of GDP in exports (DVA - domestic value added) and the factors affecting China's gains. The paper decomposes the gross exports of China so as to get the components that make up total GDP in the exports of the country, namely the value-added exports and DVA that are returned from abroad. Then the two components are measured to obtain the scale of GDP in China's exports both on country and sector level. The results show that, firstly, both value-added exports and the GDP in China's exports are less than the traditional gross trade statistics, indicating that there is a gap of real trade gains under GVCs. Secondly, comparing whether the proportion of DVA in total exports, the proportion of DVA in exports of manufactures or the proportion of RDV in total DVA, the gaps between China and the developed countries such as the United States, Germany and Japan do exist. Especially, considering the RDV of China, the proportion is significantly lower than that of major developed countries such as the United States and Germany, indicating that China lags far behind developed countries in the capabilities of supplying high value-added intermediate goods. Lastly, the empirical results suggest that DVA in China's exports has progressively increased in response to the productivity enhancement; research and development (R&D) inputs and capital formation, and the synergies between R&D and vertical specialization affect China's DVA growth in exports positively.     

全球价值链分工下的双边贸易收益核算：以中美贸易为例

通过构建双边贸易收益核算模型,从总体规模、行业结构、实现方式等层面对中美双边贸易收益进行核算。本文发现中美双边出口中均包含着大量的对方国内增加值,与增加值贸易差额比较,传统统计口径的中美贸易差额出现明显高估。其中中国对美货物出口的贸易顺差被显著高估,而服务出口的贸易顺差被明显低估。在中美双边贸易中,中国对美出口包含的本国国内增加值比重不到七成,而美国对华出口包含的本国国内增加值比重超过八成。中国出口到美国的产品绝大部分表现为最终产品并且被美国当地消费,而美国出口到中国很大部分表现为中间品,并且通过对增值折返及对第三国出口的形式实现。     

Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports

As a large trading nation, China competes with importing countries’ domestic and third‐country markets but also creates growth opportunities for exporters. Most studies on China trade shocks or “China shocks” focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies. The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China – China as the largest importer, rather than as an exporter. We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018. Using detailed export and employment data, we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure. We find that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters. On average, our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018, which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries. Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally.     

New Insights on US Aggregate and State Level Trade with the China Region

Aggregate trade data with breakdown into related and non‐related party components show that US multinational enterprises use different trading strategies in the China region relative to other countries. US trade with the China region in 2002–2007 is characterized by arm's‐length transactions. State‐level trade data show great variability in state engagement with the region through trade: exports to the region range from 1 to 28 percent of state exports. In addition, compared to exports to other countries, exports to the region are highly concentrated. At the extreme, for some states, 96–98 percent of exports to the region are computer and electronic products. Finally, gravity regressions show that state exports to Hong Kong are positively associated with the relative size of the Hong Kong‐born population in the states. There is no evidence that stricter labor regimes lead to lower state exports.     

Tracing value added in gross exports of China: Comparison with the USA,Japan, Korea,and India based on generalized LMDI

This study first traces value added in gross exports of China during 2000–2014 to four components, namely domestic value added absorbed abroad (DVA), domestic value added return home (RDV), foreign value added (FVA), and pure double-counted terms (PDC), then compares these four components in China's exports with those in exports of the USA, Japan, Korea, and India. Second, this paper proposes a generalized logarithmic mean Divisia index (GLMDI) method and combines additive and multiplicative decomposition to decompose DVA gaps between China and the other four countries into value added coefficient effect, input-output structure effect, domestic scale effect and foreign scale effect. The aggregate value added coefficient effect is then attributed to sectoral level. Results show that DVA always occupied the largest share in the gross exports of China, which ranged from 74.60–82.84% during 2000–2014. Before 2011, DVA share of China's exports was generally the second smallest among five countries; since 2011, DVA share of China's exports increased, and China had the largest DVA share in 2014 (81.39%). Sectors having a large FVA share in China's exports usually had a large DVA share, such as “Mining” (MIN), “Computers, Electronic and Optical” (CEO), and “Basic Metals” (BAS). Additive and multiplicative decomposition analyses indicate that value added coefficients had a negative and increased effect on DVA gaps between China and the other four countries. Attribution analysis revealed that CEO sector had the largest negative value added coefficient effect in comparison between China and the USA, Japan, and Korea and its effect increased in comparison between China and the other four countries. Policy implications derived are finally discussed.     

Looking into global value chains: influence of foreign services on export performance

Using data from the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output database, we explore the impact of foreign services value added content of exports on export performance, specifically on duration of trade. Our data show that the share of foreign services content in manufacturing exports grows from 1995 to 2011, in a way similar to foreign goods content, and in contrast to the decreasing share of domestic services. Moreover, the share of foreign services value added content is larger for developing and emerging countries than for advanced countries. Our econometric findings confirm that foreign services value added embodied in manufacturing exports contribute positively to more resilient exports relationships, a positive effect which occurs for the three groups of manufacturing industries (high, medium and low technology industries) and, for each group, it is more pronounced for developing and emerging economies.