The implications of the new capital adequacy rules for portfolio management of credit assets

Over the past several years, there has been an extensive discussion among practitioners and academics about whether and how a portfolio management approach could help banks to better manage risk capital and create shareholder value. In this article, the authors argue that there are four key drivers which require banks to move from a transactional to a more portfolio management like approach when managing credit assets. These are: structural changes in the credit markets, inefficiencies of risk transfer in lending markets, ballooning debt levels in the US, and the proposed changes for capital adequacy. The authors see the latter not as a one-time change in capital adequacy rules, but more as a first step towards full convergence between risk capital and regulatory capital for credit risk. These changes require banks to accelerate their efforts to build first class portfolio management skills and capabilities. Achieving best practice credit portfolio management is rewarded with attractive opportunities for shareholder value creation and enables bank to successfully compete going forward.     

Does Regulatory Capital Arbitrage, Reputation, or Asymmetric Information Drive Securitization?

Banks can choose to keep loans on balance sheet as private debt or transform them into public debt via asset securitization. Securitization transfers credit and interest rate risk, increases liquidity, augments fee income, and improves capital ratios. Yet many lenders still retain a portion of their loans in portfolio. Do lenders exploit asymmetric information to sell riskier loans into the public markets or retain riskier loans in portfolio? If riskier loans are indeed retained in portfolio, is this motivated by regulatory capital incentives (regulatory capital arbitrage), or a concern for reputation? We examine these questions empirically and find that securitized mortgage loans have experienced lower ex-post defaults than those retained in portfolio, providing evidence consistent with either the capital arbitrage or reputation explanation for securitization.     

Portfolio Optimization under Solvency Constraints: A Dynamical Approach

We develop portfolio optimization problems for a nonlife insurance company seeking to find the minimum capital required that simultaneously satisfies solvency and portfolio performance constraints. Motivated by standard insurance regulations, we consider solvency capital requirements based on three criteria: ruin probability, conditional Value-at-Risk, and expected policyholder deficit ratio. We propose a novel semiparametric formulation for each problem and explore the advantages of implementing this methodology over other potential approaches. When liabilities follow a Lognormal distribution, we provide sufficient conditions for convexity for each problem. Using different expected return on capital target levels, we construct efficient frontiers when portfolio assets are modeled with a special class of multivariate GARCH models. We find that the correlation between asset returns plays an important role in the behavior of the optimal capital required and the portfolio structure. The stability and out-of-sample performance of our optimal solutions are empirically tested with respect to both the solvency requirement and portfolio performance, through a double rolling window estimation exercise.     

Economic capital for nonperforming loans

A portfolio of nonperforming loans requires economic capital. We present two models for forecasting the portfolio loss and its probability distribution. In the first model, the loss for each nonperforming loan entails a change in provision over the risk horizon. The risk determinants are the single-name concentration, measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschmann index, as well as a systematic factor and the idiosyncratic risk. Our second model allows for interportfolio diversification with a portfolio of performing loans because banks typically own both performing and nonperforming loans. In this model, the nonperforming loan is identified with its systematic risk. Both models allow for closed-form expressions of economic capital and for the capital charge of the single loan. We calibrate the macroeconomic model parameters statistically with a loss panel; the microeconomic parameters depend on the portfolio. The portfolio risk for nonperforming loans mainly depends on the volatility of the systematic economic factor. The dependence becomes more pronounced when interportfolio diversification is taken into account. The magnitude of interportfolio diversification is also marked. Finally, we calculate regulatory capital charges according to Basel II for past-due loans. The regulatory charges are on average smaller than our economic charges and, additionally, take the volatility of economic activity into account only implicitly.     

加快推进我国证券投资和资本市场开放的路径选择

改革开放以来,我国证券投资和资本市场开放取得明显成效,但也存在一些不足。如何采取积极有效的措施,选择合适的路径推进我国证券投资和资本市场开放,这对于促进境内资本市场发展、满足境内机构和个人跨境投资需求、构建证券投资项下跨境资金双向流动机制、促进经济持续健康发展都具有积极的意义。文章主要就推进证券投资和资本市场开放的目标和路径进行了详细的阐述,对可能出现的风险进行了分析,并对风险防范措施提出了政策建议。     

Who are the active investors? : Evidence from venture capital

This paper examines the determinants and consequences of investor activism in venture capital. Using a hand-collected sample of European venture capital deals, it shows the importance of human capital. Venture capital firms with partners that have prior business experience are more active recruiting managers and directors, helping with fundraising, and interacting more frequently with their portfolio companies. Independent venture capital firms are also more active than ‘captive’ (bank-, corporate-, or government-owned) firms. After controlling for endogeneity, investor activism is shown to be positively related to the success of portfolio companies.     

European capital market integration: An empirical study based on a European asset pricing model

This paper investigates the integration between the capital markets of 15 European countries, all of which are members of the European Union. Integration is tested under the joint hypothesis of a European multifactor asset pricing model. A European portfolio is constructed from which common factors are extracted using maximum likelihood factor analysis. Empirical tests are undertaken to determine whether these European factors are not only priced, but also equally priced across the European capital markets. The results show that a number of common factors are extracted from the European portfolio and a degree of capital market integration is shown to exist across the European capital markets.     

商业银行不良贷款的经济资本配置：方法与差异

我国商业银行经济资本计量方法都是基于巴塞尔监管资本要求,却忽略或无法准确衡量不良贷款的经济资本问题。事实上,商业银行不良贷款的经济资本配置和正常贷款是不同的。文章利用解析法和蒙特卡罗模拟法对三类具有不同粒度构成的不良贷款组合进行计算、分析和比较。结果表明,贷款组合分散化程度越高,损失分布与正态分布越接近,此时适合采用解析法计算经济资本。当贷款组合分散化程度较低但不含支配型贷款时,采用解析法和模拟法所得结果相差并不大。但是当组合含支配型贷款时,损失分布与正态分布出现较大偏离,模拟法更加适用。另外,贷款组合所需的经济资本量与贷款组合的分散程度大小一般呈负相关。     

A Value-At-Risk Calculation of Required Reserves for Credit Risk in Corporate Lending Portfolios

This paper demonstrates that the building blocks of the insurance process, under similar assumptions, produce identical results to the option-pricing approach in the case of pricing individual loans. We examine the performance of a collective of such building blocks, using portfolio historical performance to endogenously parameterize the default cost function unique to a particular portfolio. Having estimated the appropriate default cost function, we can then specify the reserve requirement for a bank operating such a portfolio. In this respect, the additivity of the Poisson parameter is a powerful feature, allowing one to decompose portfolio performance over time and homogeneous portfolio subsections. Portfolios with greater and lesser risk and profitability respectively are hypothesized, and a capital adequacy framework which equates risk across such portfolios is examined. Finally, we simulate the operation of the proposed capital adequacy model. Observed insolvencies are fewer than those observable under present regulation, and specific problems may be identified earlier than at present.     

Risk-taking behavior of banks under regulation

This paper analyzes the value maximization of regulated banks within a moral-hazard framework. In the model, regulators monitor both the capital ratio and the asset portfolio, and banks simultaneously select the optimum capital ratio and asset portfolio. A key assumption is that a bank cannot expect a positive put option value once it is classified as risky by regulators. The optimum values of the two variables depend on investment opportunities and charter values, as well as regulatory parameters. The model that explicitly incorporates regulation can explain various phenomena that are seemingly inconsistent with the predictions of moral hazard models — for example, a positive relationship between the capital ratio and the riskiness of the asset portfolio. A particularly interesting result is that a larger charter value results in a higher-risk interior solution.     

Cross-border venture capital performance: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the determinants of cross-border venture capital (VC) performance in the Chinese VC market. We focus on the impact of foreign VC firms' (VCs') human capital and domestic entrepreneurs' experience on the performance of both VC investments and portfolio companies using logit and Cox hazard models. After controlling for portfolio company quality, domestic VC industry development, domestic exit conditions and a number of other factors, little correlation was evident between VC performance and foreign VCs' human capital, such as experience, networks and reputation. In contrast, the domestic entrepreneurs' experience is crucial to VC performance. In particular, if an entrepreneur has more general experience in terms of the number of companies previously worked for or more special experience in terms of the number of companies previously served as a CEO or top manager, a portfolio company is more likely to pull off a successful exit through IPO or M&A, and the VCs are also likely to shorten their investment duration in the portfolio company.     

A generalized coherent risk measure: The firm's perspective

This note extends the concept of a coherent risk measure to make it more consistent with a firm's capital budgeting perspective. A coherent risk measure defines the risk of a portfolio to be that amount of cash that must be added to the portfolio such that it becomes acceptable to a regulator. As such, a coherent risk measure implicitly assumes that the firm has already made its capital budgeting decision. Except for a cash infusion, the portfolio composition remains unchanged. We propose a generalized version of a coherent risk measure that also allows the portfolio composition to change as well. Once the investment decisions are fixed, our measure collapses to a coherent risk measure.     

Risk adjusted discount rates and the present value of risky costs

In capital budgeting the correct risk adjusted discount rate for future cash flows is independent of whether the flow is a cost or a revenue. Contrary to a widely disseminated view in some popular textbooks and elsewhere, costs are not especially safe (nor risky), and accordingly costs should not be discounted at especially low risk adjusted discount rates. This paper analyzes capital budgeting within a portfolio model in which revenues and costs appear as “long’ and “short’ portfolio positions, respectively, and proves that costs are neither more nor less intrinsically risky than revenues.     

Cash demand,liquidation costs and capital market equilibrium under uncertainty

In this paper, the portfolio and the liquidity planning problems are unified and analyzed in one model. Stochastic cash demands have a significant impact on both the composition of an individual's optimal portfolio and the pricing of capital assets in market equilibrium. The derived capital asset pricing model with cash demands and liquidation costs shows that both the market price of risk and the systematic risk of an asset are affected by the aggregate cash demands and liquidity risk. The modified model does not require that all investors hold an identical risky portfolio as implied by the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin model. Furthermore, it provides a possible explanation for the noted discrepancies between the empirical evidence and the prediction of the traditional capital asset pricing model.     

GOLBALIZATION, CORPORATE FINANCE, AND THE COST OF CAPITAL

International financial markets are progressively becoming one huge, integrated, global capital market—a development that is contributing to higher stock prices in developed as well as developing economies. For companies that are large and visible enough to attract global investors, having a global shareholder base means having a lower cost of capital and hence a greater equity value for two main reasons: First, because the risks of equity are shared among more investors with different portfolio exposures and hence a different “appetite” for bearing certain risks, equity market risk premiums should fall for all companies in countries with access to global markets. Although the largest reductions in cost of capital resulting from globalization will be experienced by companies in liberalizing economies that are gaining access to the global markets for the first time, risk premiums can also be expected to fall for firms in long-integrated markets as well. Second, when firms in countries with less-developed capital markets raise capital in the public markets of countries (like the U.S.) with highly developed markets, they get more than lower-cost capital; they also import at least aspects of the corporate governance systems that prevail in those markets. For companies accustomed to less-developed markets, raising capital overseas is likely to mean that more sophisticated investors, armed with more advanced technologies, will participate in monitoring their performance and management. And, in a virtuous cycle, more effective monitoring increases investor confidence in the future performance of those companies and so improves the terms on which they raise capital. Besides reducing market risk premiums and improving corporate governance, globalization also affects the systematic risk, or “beta,” of individual companies. In global markets, the beta of a firm's equity depends on how the stock contributes to the volatility not of the home market portfolio, but of the world market portfolio. For companies with access to global capital markets whose profitability is tied more closely to the local than to the global economy, use of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) will overstate the cost of capital because risks that are not diversifiable within a national economy can be diversified by holding a global portfolio. Thus, to reflect the new reality of a globally determined cost of capital, all companies with access to global markets should consider using a global CAPM that views a company as part of the global portfolio of stocks. In making this argument, the article reviews the growing body of academic studies that provide evidence of the predictive power of the global CAPM as well as the reduction in world risk premiums.     

What drives portfolio investments of German banks in emerging capital markets?

After decades of steady liberalization and financial market development, emerging capital markets experienced unparalleled capital inflows in the aftermath of the emerging markets crisis of the 1990s. This paper studies portfolio investment decisions of German banks in emerging capital markets from 2002 to 2007. The use of a dynamic time-series cross-section framework and the micro database External Position Report provided by Deutsche Bundesbank permit insights into the various determinants of portfolio investments in ECMs. For example, there is evidence that German banks take into account the various dimensions of financial market development in their portfolio investment decisions and anticipate the special risks inherent in emerging markets. Proxies for the overall development and efficiency of capital markets have the highest economic significance of all variables. The introduction of depositary receipts programs has a positive impact on stock market investment. Moreover, there is evidence that global risk aversion exerts a significant influence in times of financial turmoil.     

Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?

We examine the determinants of net private capital inflows to emerging market economies (EMEs) since 2002. Our main findings are: First, growth and interest rate differentials between EMEs and advanced economies and global risk appetite are statistically and economically important determinants of net private capital inflows. Second, there have been significant changes in the behavior of net inflows from the period before the recent global financial crisis to the post-crisis period, especially for portfolio inflows, partly explained by the greater sensitivity of such flows to interest rate differentials since the crisis. Third, capital controls introduced in recent years do appear to have discouraged both total and portfolio net inflows. Finally, we find positive effects of unconventional U.S. monetary policy on EME inflows, especially portfolio inflows. Even so, U.S. unconventional policy is one among several important factors influencing flows.     

Mutual funds' capital gains lock-in and earnings management

Capital gains taxation creates a lock-in effect, increasing investors' incentives to monitor and decreasing portfolio firms' incentives to cater to short-term investors. We show a negative relation between lock-in and portfolio firms' earnings management, and this relation is stronger for capital gains held by tax-sensitive investors. Further, the relation between lock-in and earnings management is stronger when the capital gains tax rate is higher. We show that locked-in funds vote against management and against audit committee members' reappointment following earnings management. Locked-in funds are less likely to exit a position following disappointing earnings announcements, reducing firms' incentive to manage earnings.     

资本缓冲与银行风险变动：周期性及多元化的视角

利用上市银行2002-2013年的季度数据,考察资本缓冲调整、宏观经济波动与资产价值变动之间的内在联系.研究发现:上市银行资本缓冲的顺周期性并不显著,但是其风险变动却对宏观经济的波动极为敏感;同时,资本缓冲的调整与上市银行的风险变动具有相关性,在宏观经济变动时,银行会因自身表内资产组合风险的变化而连续调整其资本缓冲.此外,上市银行表内资产的多元化程度较低,收入变动与风险波动的相关性较显著,所以,收入多元化依然是银行减少风险,提高市场竞争力的驱动因素之一.     

Selecting a portfolio with skewness: Recent evidence from US,European, and Latin American equity markets

Polynomial goal programming, in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated, is utilized to determine the optimal portfolio from Latin American, US and European capital markets. The empirical findings suggest that the incorporation of skewness into an investor’s portfolio decision causes a major change in the resultant optimal portfolio. The empirical evidence indicates that investors do trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness.