外资、产业集聚与失业:新经济地理观

本文整合Harris-Todaro(1970)的城市失业现象与Krugman(1991)的新经济地理理论,建立新经济地理失业模型,探讨外资对于就业、城市失业量(率)与产业结构的影响;焦点置于要素替代差异、Todaro矛盾以及引进外资国家的福利分析。在两国架构中,当引进外资时,若要素替代弹性较低,资本引进国随着制造业扩张,其劳动雇佣量固然上升,但城市失业量亦随之上扬,出现Todaro矛盾现象。反之,在高要素替代情况下,引进外资的国家可能出现制造业就业和城市失业量同时下降的现象。     

The Balassa-Samuelson model with job separations

We incorporate sectoral job separation rates in a small open economy model to examine the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect. Unequal separation rates give rise to compensating wage differentials. We simulate the model for Japan and replicate a feature of its economy that the nontradeables sector has higher wages and a higher separation rate compared to the tradeables sector. With productivity growth in the tradeables sector, labour moves from the tradeables sector to the nontradeables sector if tradeables and nontradeables are complements in consumption. The B-S effect is dampened. With a higher separation rate in the nontradeables sector, higher wages in the nontradeables sector amplifies this labour movement. Nevertheless, unemployment always falls due to a positive income effect. In contrast, the effect of productivity growth in the nontradeables sector is to lower the real exchange rate and raise unemployment.     

Sectoral Wage Rigidities and Labour and Product Market Institutions in the Euro Area

We estimate wage Phillips curve relationships between sectoral wage growth, unemployment and productivity in a country-industry panel of euro area countries. We find that institutional rigidities – such as labour and product market institutions and regulations – limit the adjustment of euro area wages to unemployment, in both upturns and downturns, particularly in manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, in the construction and service sectors. In addition, there are further limitations in the response of wages to changes in unemployment during economic downturns which suggests that euro area wages are also characterised by significant downward wage rigidities, especially in the manufacturing sector. These results are robust to specifications that account for factors that may affect structural unemployment (such as duration-dependent unemployment effects), as well as changes in the skill composition of employment that may affect the evolution of aggregate wages. The results also hold for panels including or excluding the public sector (where wages may be determined differently to the private sector also due to the effects of fiscal consolidation on public sector wages during the crisis). From a policy perspective, reforms in product and labour markets which reduce wage rigidities can facilitate employment growth and enhance the rebalancing process in the euro area.     

Empirical analysis of urban youth unemployment in Ethiopia

Lack of adequate jobs and long unemployment duration becomes a challenge for urban youth in Ethiopia. This study empirically examines youth unemployment and its determinants in urban Ethiopia. It aims to examine the incidences and durations of youth unemployment and their determinant factors. In addition to logistic regression model, a nonparametric Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards model are used. The results indicate that both the incidence and duration of youth unemployment is higher in urban Ethiopia. The hazards model shows that the hazard rate of leaving unemployment are significantly related to individual characteristics such as age and educational level of the youth, and labor market factors such as experience and job market information. Gender and regional disparities are observed. Young women exit unemployment much slower than men and the exit rate increases with age. Big and relatively more urbanized regions have a higher incidence and longer duration of unemployment spells than the small regions. Finally, based on the results, the study suggests that there is a need to adopt target policies that will promote skills and employment opportunities for the youth. Providing entrepreneurship training and startup capital to encourage youth to create rather than seek jobs is critical in this regard.     

Human Resource Underutilization in an Era of Poverty Reduction: An Analysis of Unemployment and Underemployment in Ghana

Abstract: Unemployment is more prevalent in urban than rural Ghana, while underemployment is pervasive in rural Ghana. The paper analyses trends in these two forms of human resource underutilization and examines their major determinants. It is found that a positive association exists between the underemployment rate and the incidence of poverty in specific industries. The data supports the importance of demographics, education and firm sizes as major determinants of unemployment. Furthermore, these factors together with type of employment are the factors influencing underemployment. To reduce the level of unemployment and underemployment, the government should provide support for: (1) growth of private sector firms and informal sector activities; and (2) rural alternatives to agricultural activities. These implications are also relevant to other African countries trying to combat the twin problems of unemployment and underemployment.     

Uncovering the Truth about Chinese Urban Unemployment Rates: 2005–2012

Using China Urban Household Survey data from 2005 to 2012, the present paper examines the changing pattern of China's urban unemployment rates. The paper shows that the annual urban unemployment rates during 2005–2012 averaged approximately 8.5 percent, as opposed to the official figure of approximately 4.1 percent, and despite the significant slowdown of GDP growth since 2008, the urban unemployment rates still exhibit a downward trend. This paper finds that continuous job creation in both the tertiary and the non‐state sectors helps explain the decreasing trend in unemployment rates. Meanwhile, the downward trend of the unemployment rates could also be explained by the fact that both the secondary industry and the state‐owned sector have destructed fewer jobs because of the execution of macroeconomic stimulus policies since 2008.     

Economic Freedom and Unemployment around the World

Using data from 87 countries and the years 1980-2003, this paper empirically analyzes whether and to what extent economic freedom affects unemployment. According to the regression results, economic freedom is likely to substantially reduce unemployment, especially among women and young people. A small government sector and a legal system characterized by an independent judiciary, impartial courts, and an effective protection of property rights most clearly seem to have beneficial effects. In addition, there are indications that freedom to trade across national boundaries and a light regulatory burden may also lower unemployment, though apparently in the long term only.     

Choosy Youth or Unwanted Youth? A Survey of Unemployment

This paper examines structure and change in unemployment in Indonesia from the 1970s through to 1996 The analysis focuses on high unemployment rates among urban youth, set in the context of similar problems experienced in other developing countries. It also deals with some of the conceptual and measurement issues. It is concluded that high youth unemployment is partly a queuing phenomenon among middle class families, related to processes of job search and wage structure. But rates of under-utilisation are also high among children of poorer households in the working age papulation Over time, the paper finds considerable stability in the structure of unemployment, with some tendency for overall rates to increase Some rises in unemplnyment were experienced by youth with either low educational status or tertiary qualifications, and by women Explanations include increased minimum wages and a slowdown in manufacturing activity, although changing definations have also played a part.     

Why is There a Spike in the Job Finding Rate at Benefit Exhaustion?

Putting a limit on the duration of unemployment benefits tends to introduce a “spike” in the job finding rate shortly before benefits are exhausted. Current theories explain this spike from workers’ behavior. We present a theoretical model in which also the nature of the job matters. End-of-benefit spikes in job finding rates are related to optimizing behavior of unemployed workers who rationally assume that employers will accept delays in the starting date of a new job, especially if these jobs are permanent. This gives some workers an incentive to not immediately start working after they have found a job. Instead they wait until their benefits expire. We use a dataset on Slovenian unemployment spells to test this prediction and find supporting evidence. We conclude that the spike in the job finding rate suggests that workers exploit unemployment insurance benefits for subsidized leisure.     

Labour Market Flexibility,Wages and Incomes in Sub‐Saharan Africa in the 1990s

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of how African labour markets have performed in the 1990s. It is argued that the failure of African labour markets to create good paying jobs has resulted in excess labour supply in the form of either open unemployment or a growing self‐employment sector. One explanation for this outcome is a lack of labour market ‘flexibility’ keeping formal sector wages above their equilibrium level and restricting job creation. We identify three attributes of labour market flexibility. First, whether real wages decline over time; secondly, the tendency for wages to adjust in the face of unemployment; and thirdly, the extent of wage differentials between sectors and/or firms of various size. Recent research shows that real wages in Africa during the 1990s may have been more downwardly flexible than previously thought and have been surprisingly responsive to unemployment rates, yet large wage differentials between formal and informal sector firms remain. This third sense of the term ‘inflexibility’ can explain a common factor across diverse African economies — the high income divide between those working in large firms and those not. Those working in the thriving self‐employment sector in Ghana have something in common with the unemployed in South Africa — both have very low income opportunities relative to those in large firms.     

Identifying employment-creating sectors in South Africa: the role of services industries

This paper explores scenarios for employment creation, with an emphasis on services. It considers whether the government's current policies for the formal services sector will achieve its 2014 target of halving unemployment. New employment has mainly been found in the formal and non-formal services, and future employment will probably come from such sectors as business services, trade, finance and tourism. As at 2004, about 480 000 new jobs were needed annually to halve unemployment from 26.2 per cent to 13 per cent by 2014. This would require at least twice the average annual job creation since 1994. Two scenarios are considered: the first under current conditions with similar rates of growth; the second with substantial improvements in policy, especially the promotion of trade in services. The first scenario leaves the economy with the same rate of unemployment in 2014. The second sees a reduction in unemployment of 20 per cent.     

Self-employment in urban China: Networking in a transition economy

This paper investigates the relationship between self-employment and social networks in urban China, an economy rife with informational and institutional imperfections, under-developed financial markets, but a growing and important non-state sector. Having a social network can help the self-employed access supply and credit networks, and assist in navigating an uncertain institutional environment where permissions and licenses often require inter-personal relationships to facilitate and reduce the informational costs of enforcement by dealing with known persons. Thus, holding other productive and observable traits constant including attitude toward risk where possible, social networks are expected to be a significant correlate to self-employment which is borne out by the evidence. Examining three tranches of the self-employed (those who are self-employed, those who are self-employed as a second job, and a sub-sample who have experienced unemployment and then became self-employed), the paper finds that social networks significantly predict self-employment except for those who are working for themselves as a second job. Gender differences are also notable.     

Rising black unemployment: Changes in job stability or in employability?

This article analyzes the effects of changes in flows into and out of unemployment on the growing gap between black and white unemployment rates in the 1970s and 1980s. Current Population Survey data show that black workers’ unemployment inflows increased, suggesting that job instability increased. Declining employment opportunities were also implicated, as black workers left unemployment for a job less often in 1987 than in 1971. White women’s situation improved considerably, with lower inflows and higher employment probabilities. Although the effects of declining federal equal employment opportunity (EEO) pressure cannot be detected, these findings are consistent with increasing racial discrimination.     

The West European employment problem

The West European Employment Problem. -The most characteristic feature of the unemployment experience in Western Europe is the inability of the unemployment rate to return to pre-shock levels. In addition to rather restrictive demand management at various occasions, the main reasons for this persistence of unemployment are probably the long-term paths of real and relative wages, wide marginal tax wedges, disincentives to hiring and job search and possibly also an erosion of social norms against living off benefits. It is argued that a package of complementary policy reforms is necessary to overcome the unemployment persistence in Western Europe.     

Racial differences in the unemployment response to structural changes in local labor markets

This analysis uses establishment-level data on job creation and destruction to examine the unemployment rate responses of black, Hispanic and white workers to shifts in demand across firms and industries during the period 1980–84. Black unemployment rates are significantly more responsive to differences in aggregate demand growth and wage flexibility than are white and Hispanic unemployment rates, and they are also more severely impacted by structural changes in labor demand than are white and Hispanic unemployment rates. Additional research using the measures and focus of the present analysis that cover other time periods can assist in developing a clearer picture of the contemporary dynamics of urban labor markets and can provide guidance for public policy.     

An Analysis of Perceptions of Job Insecurity among White and Black Workers in the United States: 1977–2012

While objective measures indicate that the risk of job loss is higher for black workers than for white workers, there is little research on how what workers’ expectations of job loss differ by race. This study looks at how secure black and white workers are feeling about their jobs and how their perceptions of job insecurity have been affected by time trends and regional unemployment rates. I find that perceptions of job security of black male workers, older black workers, and black high school graduates have deteriorated relative to their white counterparts during the period 1977–2012. Among those who attended college, white workers’ perceived job insecurity has increased. Black blue-collar workers’ and construction workers’ perceptions of job insecurity also have increased relative to their white counterparts. Moreover, perceptions of job insecurity among several black groups, such as high school dropouts and old workers, are more sensitive to regional unemployment rates than their white counterparts.     

失业保险是否会造成长期失业?运用生存模型对青岛市失业者的经验研究

西方关于失业保险与失业持续时间关系的理论和经验研究表明，失业保险的存在会延长失业者的失业持续时间．造成长期失业。本文应用我国青岛市失业登记数据。对青岛市失业保险如何影响失业持续时间进行了经验研究。通过对失业持续时间的寿命表估计和Cox回归发现。青岛市享受失业保险者的失业持续时间要明显长于不享受失业保险者，并且在享受失业保险者当中。享受24个月失业保险者要比享受12个月失业保险者有着更长的失业持续时间；另外，失业者的再就业风险率在失业期内是动态变化的。这说明。我国的失业保险制度同样对失业者的再就业行为具有负激励效应．延长了失业持续时间。     

Labor Market Dynamics and Structural Change: Evidence from China

Structural change theories usually assume agents are homogeneous. However, because of demand‐side or supply‐side heterogeneities, the probability of switching among sectors differs across people. This paper reveals these differences through restoring a long‐period, individual‐level panel dataset from China's Urban Household Survey for 1986–2009. We find that both for people who started working for the first time and those who switched jobs, the sector choice depends on personal characteristics. In particular, women and people with higher educational attainment or a previous white‐collar job are more likely to join the tertiary sector and less likely to join the primary sector. These effects are substantial even if the macroeconomic variables used in conventional structural change theories are controlled. They are also robust in various periods and at more detailed industry levels. Our research suggests that it is important to pay greater attention to the labor composition when making policy related to economic structural change.     

Discrepancy between Registered and Actual Unemployment Rates in China： An Investigation inProvincial Capital Cities

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market and economic performance. Based on a unique survey, we estimate the unemployment rate at 13.44percent in 30 provincial capital cities in China in 2007, which is well above the officially announced registered unemployment rate. The discrepancy results from inaccuracy in the calculation of registered unemployment. The discrepancy is not stably evolving across regions or over the years, making it difficult to recover the true unemployment rate using a simple multiplier approach. We further investigate the sources of the discrepancy by examining the determinants of unemployment registration. It is evident that participation in certain public activities, which would facilitate the spread of knowledge related to job-searching and unemployment registration, encouraged unemployment registration. Social attention to government antiunemployment programs also encouraged unemployment registration. These findings confirm the behavioral hypothesis that incomplete knowledge and limited attention can cause deviation from optimal choice. The policy implications of the findings of the study are discussed.     

The South African labour market, 1995–2015

This study investigates the changes in the South African labour market in the post-apartheid period. While unemployment increased over the 1995–2015 period, employment also increased. Nonetheless, the extent of employment increase is not rapid enough to absorb all net entrants into the labour force, resulting in increasing unemployment, or an employment absorption rate of 65.3%. Unemployment is concentrated in specific demographically and geographically defined groups, most notably Africans, the lowly educated and those aged below 30 years, residing in rural areas in Gauteng. Finally, four worrying findings are observed: youth jobseekers aged below 30 years struggle to find their first job; chronic unemployment is more serious for the relatively older jobseekers (aged 45 years or above) with past work experience; employees working for small, medium and micro enterprises still stagnate at approximately 3.5 million; and jobseekers from the older age cohorts are less likely to actively seek work by enquiring at workplaces and answering job advertisements.