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1.
Until the End of the World can be seen as a ‘global' film in terms of its production process, theme, narrative structure and universal appeal. The article challenges this universality by demonstrating that the film mobilises distinctive and definitive European perspectives in its attempt to speculate about our global future. The article initially examines the film's imagining of technological development in the near future. The film is particularly preoccupied with the future of ‘technologies of vision', the techno-scientific and artistic ways through which we represent ourselves and the world around us. In Until the End of the World, these ‘technologies of vision' are contrasted to more traditional processes of story-telling. The position that narrative occupies in the film is analysed with particular emphasis on the position and the function ascribed to the narrator. The article locates both the discursive origins of ‘technologies of vision' and the film's critique of them, not in opposing universes, but within the same historical process, sharing a common ‘destiny' and coming from the same (European) view of the world.  相似文献   

2.
SP Udayakumar   《Futures》1997,29(10):919-935
Ever since the two-pronged ‘divide and rule’ approach of the British and the ‘two nation’ theory of the communal forces led to the partition of the subcontinent, the elites of South Asian countries have always bifurcated the region's modern history with the independence divider. The contemporary period thus comprises of ‘before 1947’ when the British themselves ruled, and ‘after 1947’ when British ideas rule. Demystifying the all too familiar ‘before and after’ analysis of the elites and their pompous claims of post-independence ‘achievements’, this paper attempts to elude that scheme, exposing the emptiness of such claims. The author exhorts the poor of South Asia to put independence behind them as another major political event in the long history of the region and to press ahead with collective preparations for their common futures.  相似文献   

3.
M. Clark   《Futures》2001,33(10):817-836
Domestic ‘futures’ have been a long time coming. This paper questions the extent to which futuristic ‘vision’ linked to the rhetoric and sentiment of ‘sustainable development’ and the ‘livable city’ inform town and regional planning in England and Canada. Despite official commitment to ‘environmental’ objectives and media interest in ‘ecotech’ residential development, markets institutions and behaviour lag behind what is technically possible. Planning guidance encourages homes with less environmental impact. But this message has not reached most residential consumers. Is lack of mass markets in low impact housing a flaw in Government regulation, evidence of the cynical nature of official rhetoric, or proof of gradual product development as society redefines what is expected of living spaces? Or is it unwise to expect too much change in attitudes to property, or for innovation to come soon?  相似文献   

4.
Lorne Tepperman  Hilja Laasen 《Futures》1990,22(10):1059-1070
Following definitions of ‘happiness’ and ‘social development’, crossnational and temporal happiness trends are analysed to reveal whether reported happiness reflects changes in broader social conditions. The authors question whether an effective measurement of happiness can serve as an indicator of social development. In addition, the role of information in contributing to or maximizing happiness is analysed.  相似文献   

5.
Imtiaz Ahmed 《Futures》1997,29(10):937-944
The ideas of ‘nation’, ‘national security’ and ‘development’ have played havoc with South Asian cultures. The notion of ‘nation state’ has tended to reproduce aspirations of the majority people who are often reconstructed by alien categories and leads to the alienation of minority communities. Virtually all ethnic conflicts in South Asia have their roots in this idea. A more viable and desirable future for South Asia lies in rethinking the model of development and reinventing the notions of state and security.  相似文献   

6.
Frank G. Fisher 《Futures》1993,25(10):1051-1062
The current approach to environmental dislocation and innovation is characterized as ‘dualistic’. Dualism is described, implications worked through and the existence of another, ‘dialectical’ approach is proposed. A dialectical worldview, it is suggested, complements the strengths of dualism and extends our intellectual reach. Such a view encourages recognition of social and epistemological contexts of dualistic constructs and of the dislocations that arise when they are operationalized. It enables an extension of our involvement with the world from accountability to responsibility. Mundane examples are offered in which dialectical implications and social constructions are revealed, and shown to be an effective basis for resolving, or avoiding, dislocation.  相似文献   

7.
SP Udayakumar 《Futures》1996,28(10):971-985
Discussing how a political futurist may envision present-tainted ‘realist’ futures, ideology-oriented ‘ambitious’ futures, ethics-inspired ‘ideal’ futures, or other types of futures, this essay describes who an idealist-futurist is. Proving that Mahatma Gandhi is such an idealist-futurist who builds his futurism on the rock of humanistic values by relishing the good and rejecting the bad, emphasizes the futures for the weak, and insists on working for future through futureful means such as truth and non-violence, it is pointed out how Gandhi's futurism has come to be pilfered and betrayed by the brahmanical Hindu right-wing future-thieves in present-day India.  相似文献   

8.
Economics, equity and sustainable development   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
David Pearce 《Futures》1988,20(6):598-605
As a fashionable catchword, ‘sustainable development’ has provoked a large but nebulous literature. In the interests of communication and relevance it is necessary to narrow down the various definitions that have been given and show how a revised conception of sustainable development can be integrated into practical decisionmaking. This article suggests one approach. Sustainable development is categorized by economic change subject to ‘constancy of the natural capital stock’—the stock of environmental assets is held constant while the economy is allowed whatever social goals are deemed appropriate. Such a rule, which has its own difficulties, accommodates the main concerns of the advocates of sustainability—equity between generations, equity within a generation, economic resilience to external shocks, and uncertainty about the functions and values of natural environments in social systems. It may also accommodate some of the concerns of the ‘deep ecology’ movement by respecting rights in nature.  相似文献   

9.
JosM. Tortosa 《Futures》1990,22(10):1002-1012
This article reviews the major socioeconomic paradigms, capitalism and communism, and their tentative ‘compromise’, social democracy, and considers the emerging green perspective and Japanese ‘managed society’ model in the context of the information age. The different kinds of crisis that each is suffering, and the dangers and opportunities arising from the crisis are analysed and discussed.  相似文献   

10.
Transdisciplinarity: Context, contradictions and capacity   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
  相似文献   

11.
Jan Mair 《Futures》1998,30(10):981-991
According to its advertisement copy, ‘Independence Day' delivers the ultimate encounter when powerful aliens launch an invasion against the human race. Does this ‘ultimate encounter' simply retrace the old fashioned Hollywood theme of good versus evil? Or is there a more sinister meaning woven into the text of the film? This paper deconstructs the narrative of the film to reveal the underlying monolithic, Americanised modernity and argues that ‘Independence Day' provides an allegorical legitimation for Pax Americana.  相似文献   

12.
Vinay Lal 《Futures》1997,29(10):985-1000
Though the preceding 100 years have been marked by unprecedented bloodshed, it is indisputably clear, as the century draws to a close, that domination will increasingly be exercised through the categories enshrined by modern knowledge systems. Notwithstanding the advent of subaltern studies, feminism, and cultural studies, the Indian academy shows every sign of remaining colonized. The contestation and defiance of formal academic disciplines, which are the principal vehicles through which the hegemony of the Western intellectual apparatus is exercised, is imperative if India is to have a future where its own spirit, culture, and intellectual traditions are not to be compromised. As a prolegomenon to what future histories and epistemologies of India might look like, it is suggested that Indian intellectuals think ‘more of the rest’, and ‘less of the west’, just as they must find a less oppressive West with which they can cohabit.  相似文献   

13.
Kirk W. Junker   《Futures》2004,36(10):1111-1117
The legal, political, and social meaning of the work of Charles Darwin has been claimed as resident to conservative and liberal homes alike. Peter Singer's unique admixture of personal liberal politics and what may look to be an extremely conservative philosophy of nature expose some over-simplicity in traditional ‘right’ and ‘left’ categories. In “Recovering the Left from Darwin in the 21st Century”, Steve Fuller provides us with insightful historical and sociological contexts for Singer's challenges. In this article, Kirk Junker takes one aspect of the trajectory ‘the notion of natural rights’ and examines their social construction, linguistic maintenance, and legal ramifications.  相似文献   

14.
Eddie Blass   《Futures》2003,35(10):1041-1054
This paper examines the methodological issues behind futures studies, questioning whether it is possible to claim a futures study as methodologically ‘sound’, and critiquing how futures methodology fits within the methodological paradigms currently recognised in the research field. The extent to which futures methodology can be considered a paradigm in its own right is also examined as are the assumptive foundations of futures studies. While all the evidence raises many questions as to the form of futures methodology, the lack of clarity does not make a futures study invalid or unreliable, and hence sensemaking from the chaos of futures ‘data’ does ensure that futures studies can be based on method rather than madness.

How does one research the future? The very notion of researching the future is a paradox. The word research lies within the time boundaries of the past and the present so to research the future appears a logical impossibility. Attempts to ground the methodology in any single paradigm or set of constructs proves a fruitless task. Indeed, it becomes apparent that when undertaking research into an area that is something new, in the future, which could constitute a new field of research, fundamentally a new methodology needs to be created. This paper discusses how the development of a futures methodology is an on-going process which cannot be bounded by the limitations of strict rigour, but is nevertheless a rigorously sound approach to carrying out research.

When researching the future, no one method is appropriate in isolation. While quantitative methods such as forecasting, extrapolation and time series may prove useful if there is raw numerical data to work with, a hypothesis cannot be tested and proven as is the case in many quantitative studies. Given the nature of ‘the future’ itself, raw quantitative analysis needs contextualising and interpreting in light of the assumptive future constructs, and the assumptions themselves need examining for ‘assumption drag’ so that underlying trends and wave patterns are accounted for [1].  相似文献   


15.
Jim Dator 《Futures》1990,22(10):1084-1102
This article considers recent ‘end of history’ and ‘end of nature’ hypotheses in the context of new scientific and socioeconomic paradigms, and seeks a broader understanding of the nature of information society. Through a review of recent work on future socioeconomic and scientific and technological developments, the conservationist view is rejected in favour of ‘wise design and governance of evolution’. Planning and forecasting have a central role in this process.  相似文献   

16.
This paper explores the main features of outward foreign direct investment by Russian transnational corporations – referred to as ‘eagle multinationals’ in the literature – and some of the implications of their recent rise to global prominence (since the 1990s) for the paradigms of international investment. Surprisingly, lower middle-income Russia is already a net capital exporter, and some of its firms, to mention Gazprom, Lukoil, Mechel, Norilsk Nickel and Severstal, for example, have already leapfrogged to a global status. The paper aims also at identifying issues for further analysis, such as the growing role of the state in controlling natural resource-based firms and its implications for the future of the Russian transnationals. This paper suggests that different investment paradigms fare divergently in trying to explain outward FDI from the Russian Federation. For example, the eclectic paradigm could be applied to Russian transnationals with some extension on home-country factors. Other theories, however, would require more radical re-thinking in future research.  相似文献   

17.
Matthias Gross   《Futures》2008,40(5):451-459
From an everyday perspective, a consequence of population decline and de-industrialization is the growth of natural areas: less industry and less people means more nature in the future. In the real word, the situation is more complicated. Using the development of a new lake district as a successor of brown coal industry and strip mining in the southern parts of the city of Leipzig (Germany) as a touchstone, this paper will explore some of the challenges and future opportunities for the design of ‘new nature’ in post-industrial landscapes. To discuss how fields such as ecology and engineering can fulfill their role as innovative players in times of population decline, two seemingly contrasting strategies for making decisions under conditions of depopulation in landscape development—called here scientific non-knowledge—are introduced: refactoring and public experiments.  相似文献   

18.
R. H. Atkin 《Futures》1978,10(6):492-499
The relevant data sets in a ‘soft’ science can be manipulated and analysed using topology, an exercise which also reveals the ‘backcloth’ which limits or modifies such interrelationships. The method is currently being used in many fields: eg industrial relations, medicine, and architecture. An example of a university's committee structure is used to show how the underlying, and often unnoticed, geometry can frustrate the aims of an organisation.  相似文献   

19.
‘Health and Social Care 2010’, a project of the Welsh Health Planning Forum, has been designed to link the overall strategy of the National Health Service in Wales with the planning of local health-care strategies. During the first phase of the project, forces that may impact on health and social services in the future have been identified, and consideration has been given to how the services could adapt to the expected changes. The result has been a vision of a new kind of health care based on clusters of services. Testable indicators of the vision's fulfilment have also been identified in the form of nine assumptions regarding specific future developments in the health and social services. Groups at several pilot sites have analysed these assumptions in terms of their achievability and desirability, thus illuminating potential roadblocks in reaching the desired future, as well as creative ways around these problems.  相似文献   

20.
Thea Weijers  Rob Meijer  Erno Spoelman 《Futures》1992,24(10):1048-1055
About 25% of all jobs in the Netherlands can be done in telework. We cannot give a quantitative overview of the costs and benefits of telework, partly due to the ‘made to measure’ quality of telework projects, but a qualitative overview shows that overall telework will be beneficial both on the micro and macro level, provided its introduction is voluntarily for all involved. The main barrier to the introduction is that organizations do not know enough about the implementation process. Considering the differences between organizations, a large-scale introduction of telework can be stimulated by creating a large variety of telework examples. Telework will have to remain ‘made to measure’.  相似文献   

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