Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

Forecasting technology diffusion: a new generalisation of the logistic model

The present research proposes a new generalisation of the logistic model aiming at technology diffusion forecasting. Regarding criticisms and failures reported in the literature to apply logistic function for long-term forecasting, in our work we focused on short-term accuracy of forecast. To formulate the model, based on mathematical approximation, at first the differential equation governing the diffusion process is found and then by solving the derived differential equation, the forecast function is obtained. In all steps, mathematical tools from numerical analysis are used. We compared the New Generalized Logistic Model with eight of the most renowned models in the literature. The model led to more accurate fits and forecasts than those obtained from other models we applied for comparison.     

Openness to trade as a determinant of the macroeconomic elasticity of substitution

Several theoretical and empirical studies on economic growth consider the macroeconomic elasticity of substitution between capital and labor as a measure of economic flexibility that depends on technological as well as institutional aspects. One institutional aspect of economic flexibility is openness to trade. I examine in a Heckscher–Ohlin model with two large countries trading intermediate goods how openness affects the elasticity of substitution. If the technology has a constant elasticity of substitution in a closed economy, opening up to trade raises the elasticity of substitution only in the country that accumulates capital at a faster rate.     

The Black–Scholes model as a determinant of the implied volatility smile: A simulation study

The paper represents an initial effort to shed light on the determinants of the implied volatility smile in financial (derivative) markets. It fully details the implications of the institutionalization of the Black–Scholes model in an uncertain world populated by individuals who are bounded by the amount of calculation or accounting which is technically possible. Combining model simulations, empirical analysis, and mathematical derivations, the paper proposes that the determinants of the volatility smile might be related to the behavior of traders. In pricing options, they use the widely accepted Black–Scholes formula with a measure of stock volatility that they derive from their subjective beliefs. Moreover, heterogeneity of traders’ beliefs and the way traders update their expectations have nontrivial effects, both on equilibrium prices and on the emergence of the implied volatility smile.