The Asian crisis,private sector saving,and policy implications

The Asian financial crisis has several critical implications for the saving behavior in the crisis-hit economies as well as in other Asian economies, which are summarized as follows: increase in economic uncertainty; increase in poverty; decrease in public confidence in financial institutions; financial liberalization; and reduction in corporate leverage ratio. Putting these together, the postcrisis saving rates in the crisis economies are likely to decrease without government interventions. Although the uncertainity factor may contribute to an increase in short-term saving, an abated level in household income and corporate output and slow GDP growth will lead to a contraction in saving rates. Increased poverty, diminished public confidence in banking institutions, and the increased variability of business sales will further contribute to a reduction in saving rates of the household and corporate sectors. Keeping this in mind, the postcrisis saving policy should consider stronger macroeconomic stabilization policies to reduce the underlying economic uncertainty to encourage long-term savings/investments; improving the public confidence in financial institutions through financial restructuring and a proper deposit insurance scheme in place; channeling informal sector saving into the formal financial institutions; and promoting propoor saving policies.     

European Union integration lessons for ASEAN + 3: the importance of contextual specificity

This paper will argue that EU integration appears to offer ASEAN and three Northeast Asian Countries (China, Japan and South Korea) political and security lessons concerning maintenance of regional stability, as well as some economic lessons. There is not, however, any institutional blueprint for integration that these countries could emulate. This is in part because economies are characterized by “contextual specificity” of chosen institutions and their corresponding working rules. These institutions and rules evolve in particular cultural and historical settings and are shaped by the specific country’s philosophical basis, political structure, and attitudes of authorities towards alternative types of economic institutions and the types of corresponding rules they could choose to establish for those institutions.     

美国对外负债的可持续性与国际货币体系的未来

要回归到某种形式的固定汇率制度,需要对国际资本流动进行全面且国际性的管制,乃至各国放弃管理货币制度下行使的金融主权。从经济、政治和政策上考虑,这两种要求都无法实现。欧元、日元、人民币甚至把合成货币(SDR)都考虑在内,也难以想像在可以预测的未来(21世纪中叶为止)能够出现替代美元的货币。美国的对外资产和负债之间有正的投资回报差额,这一差额在长期内将一直存在。只要这种回报差额持续存在,并且对外资产和负债占GDP的比率能够按照一定的速度扩大,那么即便美国的贸易收支逆差占GDP的比率维持在4%左右,其对外纯负债占GDP的比重维持稳定状态的可能性也是很大的。因此,以美元为中心的、由多数主要货币构成的现行浮动汇率制度具有很强的可持续性,以至于完全有可能在今后继续存在。     

Recession, inflation and the international monetary system

The difficult circumstances being faced by the world economy and its uncertain prospects for the 1980s make it necessary to take a new look at the present financial mechanisms and international institutions for monetary cooperation, with a view to adapting them to current needs and to developments in the near future. The industrial countries will have more modest rates of growth than in earlier decades, and this will have significant consequences for the developing countries: (a) stagnation of official development aid flows; (b) possible intensification of protectionist trends; (c) slow growth of producers of raw materials whose export markets will be seriously limited; (d) gradual shift of world economic and political activity toward oil-producing developing countries and, to a lesser extent, toward the exporters of manufacturers; (e) industrial countries and raw materials producers will become increasingly interdependent; (f) oil-producing and other higher income developing countries will increase their participation in regional economic cooperation and official development aid efforts. Some of the more specific problems which require attention from the international community are inflation and recession; structural disequilibria, recycling and external debt; adjustment process; creation of liquidity and transfer of resources; and participation of the developing countries in the monetary system.     

Toward regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia1

The financial and economic crisis in 1997–98 came as a dramatic shock to East Asian economies, and has prompted to institutionalize a regional financial and monetary cooperation. This paper demonstrates the strong will of East Asian countries to develop the regional financial and monetary cooperation, outlines recent developments, and provides possible prospects for the future. It points out that the option to keep consistent with the IMF system actually weakens regional solidarity, and recommends an immediate establishment of a strong regional surveillance and peer pressure mechanism for the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) to evolve into a common pool of foreign exchange reserves, a sort of East Asian IMF. It also argues that East Asian countries should closely coordinate their exchange rate regime to maintain intra‐regional and extra‐regional exchange rate stability.     

The Stock Market,Monetary Policy,and Economic Development

In this article, we examine the impact of financial market development on the level of economic development. In particular, we explore this issue in a setting where individuals face idiosyncratic risk. Incomplete information also provides a transaction role for money so that monetary policy can be studied. While an active banking sector promotes risk sharing, we incorporate a market for equity by allowing individuals to trade capital across generations. In this manner, each asset and financial market in our model fulfills a distinct economic function. Consistent with recent empirical work, we find that the impact of access to a stock market may be indeterminate—the economy may respond with significant gains in capital accumulation and risk sharing, or there may be relatively little impact. We also show that the effects of monetary policy vary across the level of financial development. In economies with small stock markets, increasing the amount of liquidity will cause capital accumulation to decline. By comparison, in advanced economies, capital accumulation improves.     

Asia's contribution to global rebalancing

Developing Asia remains at the core of global payment imbalances. While the geographical concentration of current account imbalances is significant—with the People's Republic of China accounting for the lion's share of the region's current account surplus—how Asia contributes to global rebalancing also depends critically on the newly industrialising economies and larger Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. Given the region's huge diversity, the necessary national macroeconomic and structural policies will vary significantly across Asia's emerging economies. Whereas near‐term rebalancing efforts will be driven primarily by macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, structural reforms are essential for boosting domestic and regional demand as sources of economic growth over medium to long‐term. We argue that regional rebalancing will depend critically on the adoption of deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms and further trade liberalisation to unlock the potential of strong domestic and regional spending—thus reducing Asia's high dependence on extra‐regional demand. Priority policies should include infrastructure spending, competition, trade, financial development, investment, immigration, and other social policies to reduce national savings.     

国际金融危机-资本主义末日抑或重塑

自大萧条以来本场国际金融危机是我们这年代经历的最大经济危机。这场危机导致大型金融机构倒闭,这些机构倒闭导致了世界经济系统的瘫塌。为了应对危机,很多国家注入数亿计的资金来刺激经济,而且通过控制私有公司来改造它们,我们实现了所谓"国有化"。政府提出的干预主义目的是通过社会主义方针政策调控处理危机。自2008年来工业化及新兴国家同意建立G20作为应对金融危机的主要策略。     

Lessons from the euro zone for the East Asian economies

This paper endeavors to contribute to the solution of the following critical issues: (1) what the East Asian nations can do in cooperation among themselves and with China, Japan, and South Korea in their foreign trade arrangements to improve the stability and growth of their economies; (2) what they must do individually to get their financial and real economies better integrated; (3) what they can do in cooperation with China, Japan and South Korea—bilaterally and regionally—to modernize their monetary systems and to render them more resilient to financial crises; and (4) what new focus of the IMF is most likely to enable the East Asian nations to maintain relatively free and open economies without the impact of catastrophic financial crises. Lessons from the development of the European Union, the dynamics of the euro zone, the experience of the Bank for International Settlements, and recent research on monetary and international macroeconomic theory are drawn upon to provide answers to these questions. It is argued that an area-wide approach, with a new IMF regional role and the formation of an East Asian Monetary Authority, would contribute to a sense of “community” within East Asia, leading to an enhanced role for both East Asia and ASEAN + 3 in the new world economic order.     

THE GLOBAL BANK MERGER WAVE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper reconsiders causes and implications of the global bank merger wave, especially for developing economies. Previous studies of the global bank mergers—that is, mergers between banks from different nations—had assumed that these combinations are efficiency‐driven, and that the U.S. case defines the paradigm for all other nations' banking systems. This paper argues that the U.S. experience is unique, not paradigmatic, and that bank mergers are not efficiency‐driven; instead, this merger wave has arisen because of macrostructural circumstances and because of shifts over time in banks' strategic motives. This paper argues that large, offshore banks often engage in cross‐border mergers because they want to provide financial services to households and firms that have reached minimal threshold wealth levels. For developing economies, this suggests that cross‐border acquisitions of local banks by offshore banks will have mixed effects; and it cannot be assumed that the net social impact is positive.     

Uneven centuries: Turkey's experience with economic development since 1820

This article examines the economic development of Turkey from a comparative global perspective. With the help of GDP per capita and other series, it shows that Turkey's record in economic growth and human development since 1820 has been close to world averages and a little above developing country averages. The early focus of the article is on the proximate causes—average rates of investment, below‐average rates of schooling, low rates of total productivity growth, and low technology content of production—which provide important insights into why GDP per capita increases were not any higher. For the deeper causes, the article emphasizes the role of institutions and institutional change. Turkey's formal economic institutions had been influenced by international rules since the nineteenth century, and these rules did not always support economic development. Turkey's elites also made extensive changes in formal political and economic institutions. Formal institutions were only part of the story, however. The direction of institutional change also depended on the political order and the degree of understanding between different groups and their elites. When the political system could not manage the recurring tensions and cleavages between the different elites, economic outcomes suffered.     

建设冀东经济区 应对国际金融危机

此次波及全球的金融危机破坏严重,资本市场大幅动荡,多家重量级金融机构陷入破产困境,且对实体经济产生了不利影响。世界各主要经济体纷纷进入经济下行周期。在全球经济一体化的今天,中国经济必然受到金融危机的影响。河北省作为中国的一个经济大省,如何应对金融危机是摆在决策者面前的一个重要课题。本文在科学认识国际金融危机的基础上,提出着力建设冀东经济区,来减轻金融危机对经济社会的冲击和负面作用,保证社会经济平稳运行,并打造河北经济新的增长极。     

The Macro Forecasting Record of the Indonesian Financial Authorities, 2004–15

A precondition for financial authorities’ macroeconomic effectiveness is a capacity to foresee economic conditions with reasonable accuracy. This article analyses the performance of Bank Indonesia (the central bank) and Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance in forecasting real GDP growth and consumer inflation over the last decade or so. It compares the quality of their forecasts with those of international institutions, aligning the timing of these forecasts to maximise comparability. Overall, the Indonesian authorities—especially the Ministry of Finance, in its revised central government budget (APBN-P)—perform respectably against their international comparators and there is no statistically significant bias in any of the forecasts. Still, there are mild indications of an optimistic bias in forecasts of inflation and growth, and all institutions tend to miss growth slowdowns. The results raise doubts about the value of fiscal policy for near-term macro stabilisation in Indonesia. Likewise, a wide range of uncertainty in forecasting inflation complicates the use of monetary policy for inflation targeting, at least one year ahead.     

Notes on neoinstitutional economics

Abstract

In mainstream economic theory — neoclassical economics — one had for a long time taken for granted that the institutional framework of social interaction had to be treated as something exogenously given and beyond the explanatory and analytical realms of theory. Institutions were for sociology and political science to handle, not for pure economics. More recently, however, the scope of economic theory has been widened through the incorporation of institutions. This has to a large extent grown from an increasing awareness of the farfetched consequences of the institutional presumptions on which much of the earlier theorizing was built. The analysis is therefore broadened by supplementing the hard core with institutional analysis. One has even attempted to explicate the economic rationale of the formation or sustenance of institutions by endogenizing them, e. g. by applying different kinds of evolutionary theories.     

Institutionalisation without internalisation. The cultural dimension of French-German conflicts on European Central Bank independence

When accepting the Maastricht treaty, the members of the Euro-zone agreed on the establishment of a very independent European Central Bank (ECB). Over the years, however, French political leaders systematically brought forward proposals undermining the ECB’s independence, much to the dismay of their German counterparts. This pattern of political disagreement on central bank independence has again surfaced during the current sovereign debt crisis, and has contributed to the discord amongst the Euro-zone members on the causes and proper solutions to the problems. This article conducts tests of various factors generally expected to influence the preference for central bank independence. It shows that economic explanations are unable to account for the persistent differences amongst European member-states on this issue. In contrast, national differences in political and economic culture and especially a nation’s score on the dimension Power Distance—its acceptance of centralisation of power in political leaders or institutions—does show a correlation with the different levels of internalisation of the norm of central bank independence. These findings show that institutionalisation of economic norms does not imply their internalisation by the political and the economic elite. In the broader context of current European politics, this may mean that even if European leaders will be able to come up with a common institutional answer to the current crisis, more profound convergence of their underlying economic and political cultures is needed for the successful and sustainable implementation of these solutions.     

A view from behavioral political economy on China's institutional change

A behavioral political economy framework is built on the basis of prospect theory to explain the induced and imposed institutional changes during China's market reform, giving special attention to the integrated effects of economic and political institutions. According to prospect theory, how rulers frame their decisions — in the prospects of gains or losses, influences how much risk they will take. China's market reform has been largely framed in the prospects of economic gains, for which the continuously growing private sector is the driving force. China's central government adopts a growth-oriented incremental reform that coincides with the prediction of prospect theory.     

REGIONAL INTEGRATION OF EQUITY MARKETS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Equity markets in developing and emerging economies have grown in number and importance as a result of financial market globalisation. However, their role in economic growth and development is enhanced if nascent markets are integrated with well‐established ones. Market integration, measured by the transmission of returns volatility, is identified across a sample of SSA countries, using a unique dataset. Evidence for potential integration between financial markets in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is found. Spillovers are found across markets, some unidirectional and others bi‐directional. However, continued illiquidity and incomplete institutions indicate that an integrated financial community remains premature, and considerable regulatory reform and harmonisation will be necessary for this to succeed.     

A survey of the determinants of financial development

The positive effects of financial development on economic growth have encouraged researchers to study the determinants of financial development. Based on the theoretical and empirical studies undertaken, institutions, openness of trade and financial markets, legal tradition, and political economy are identified as factors promoting the financial system. Of these, political economy factors, which can have both direct and indirect effects through other determinants, could be considered the most influential factors in financial development. Variations in the political economy of countries could well explain variations in their financial development. Although all studies show the significant effects of these determinants on financial development, further research is needed to assess the impact of each determinant and the policies that could best promote financial development.     

金砖国家多边经济合作的新趋势

"金砖国家"正在推动改革世界银行、国际货币基金组织等国际金融机构,倡导多边主义和国际关系民主化,维护发展中国家的权益。在建立国际经济新秩序过程中,"金砖国家"致力于创立多元化和更加稳定的国际货币体系,"金砖国家"对促进发展和世界经济复苏做出了贡献。"金砖国家"将在保持世界经济稳定方面发挥更重要的作用。