From growth to crisis

Abstract

Banking history has had little attention in Denmark if compared to many other countries. The purpose of this article is to present some current topics of interest in Danish banking history from about 1850 to the interwar years. Special emphasis will be laid upon the relations between banks and industry as well as the boom and bust phases of the banking system during the period.     

The Inter-War Land Reforms in Estonia,Finland and Bulgaria: A Comparative Study

Abstract

^*This study compares the development and performance of the interwar land reforms in Estonia, Finland and Bulgaria: three countries within the so-called Agrarian Reform Zone, which constituted previous parts of the Russian and Ottoman Empires heavily influenced by the Russian revolutions. In spite of their different scope and outlook these land reforms aimed at solving similar problems of an agrarian and socio-economic developmental character. Finland and Estonia underwent wars of liberation when seceding from revolutionary Russia: Finland also had to go through civil war before the land redistributions took place. In Bulgaria, however, land redistribution had been an ongoing theme since the late 1870s when autonomy from the Ottoman Empire was achieved. The interwar land expropriation and redistribution was most profound and radical in Estonia. The gradual Finnish reforms were also radical from the perspective of the precarious political situation they aimed at solving. Bulgaria's less thorough reform was nevertheless radical from the perspective of its agrarian ideological aspirations. These land reforms must therefore be seen as a part of the interwar state-building process and struggle for independence: peasant movements were influential in all three cases and geographical proximity to revolutionary Russia had impacts on their outcomes. The study emphasises that by exploring and comparing the profound interwar land redistributions, we can gain a better understanding of current problems, such as those resulting from the post-socialist de-collectivisation: e.g. the return to small-scale family farming by means of restitution, in countries that were subjugated to a command economy after World War II. For this reason interwar Finland's different road and sustained national independence makes an interesting comparison, since Finland shared several features with the land reform zone countries before the Russian revolution of 1917 and not least during the 1920s and 1930s. In the case of Estonia and Bulgaria, however, the development path was interrupted by Soviet expansion.     

Finland and the question of West European economic integration, 1947–1961

Abstract

The study deals, on one hand, with the international politics connections, and, on the other, the endogenous economic policy implications of Finland's relationship with West European economic arrangements from the Marshal! Plan up to the FINN-EFTA Agreement. In the 1950s, the Finnish economy was, in fact, a closed economy, albeit highly dependent on foreign trade. Finland's international position in the Soviet sphere of influence imposed restraints with regard to participation in international economic integration. Finland, for example, remained outside the Marshal! Plan and the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC), and even Nordic cooperation was a delicate matter from the point of view of relations with the Soviets. However, the protectionist foreign trade policies, consisting of both tariffs and quantitative restrictions, explain at least as much of the relative isolation of the Finnish economy. In these circumstances, Finland's participation in EFTA cooperation, within the framework of the FINN-EFTA agreement, from 1961 onwards was the decisive turning point towards an opening economy.     

The national security argument for protection of domestic industries

ABSTRACT

Tracing the origin of the national security argument for protection of domestic industries to Adam Smith, Alexander Hamilton, and Friedrich List, we study its post-GATT applications with reference to Article XXI of the WTO and highlight some recent abuses. We compare the use of tariff, production/input subsidy, and government procurement as alternative instruments of protection from the perspective of economic efficiency and study the disapproval of inward FDI to gain insights into the underlying national security concerns. The case studies of a) the US tariffs on aluminum and steel, b) German disapproval of the acquisition of a technology firm Leifeld Metal Spinning by a Chinese firm, and c) US’ all out global effort to cripple China’s telecom equipment giant Huawei are presented for illustration.     

The ‘Special’ World: Stalin's Power Apparatus and the Soviet System's Secret Structures Of Communication

ABSTRACT

Two of the most defining trends of the nineteenth century were the growth of international trade and the increased role of government activities in the economy. In the conjuncture between these developments lie taxes on foreign trade. Sweden was one of the examples where customs revenue became the single most important source of revenue before WWI. This article sets out to test how this source of revenue could increase as much as it did. The analysis focuses mainly on trade policy and how tariffs were set and how that affected revenue. The results show that Swedish liberalisation of trade forced a switch in the fiscal structure of tariffs, moving revenue to fewer commodities. Increased importance was given to consumption goods with lower elasticity of demand. Trade continued to increase under fiscal taxation, which led to increases in revenue. During the early period increased revenue was achieved with higher tariffs on a few key commodities. Towards the end of the century tariffs on agricultural and capital goods became more fiscally relevant, which could have clashed with protectionist intentions. The article highlights that more work is needed on this fiscal component of trade policy.     

Protecting infant industries: Canadian manufacturing and the national policy, 1870–1913

Infant industry protection has been the cornerstone of a debate on tariff policy that extends at least from the eighteenth century to the current day. In contrast to traditional neo-classical models of international trade that imply net negative effects, industrial organization and learning-by-doing trade models describe how protective tariffs can encourage output expansion, productivity improvement, and price reductions. Taking Canada's 1879 National Policy as a natural experiment, we explore the effect of a policy that substantially increased tariff protection to some, but not all, Canadian manufacturing industries. Using treatment intensity and difference-in-differences approaches, we find strong support for the predictions of the new trade models. After 1879, industries that received greater protection experienced faster growth in output and productivity, as well as larger price reductions. The industries targeted by the National Policy also exhibited greater returns to scale and faster learning rates. These results have important implications for the infant-industry debate in addition to addressing a central theme in Canadian economic history,     

How Will the Implementation of Zero Tariffs Affect Employment in China?

This paper studies the employment effect of China's possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China's most‐favored‐nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China's signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the tariff concessions in a typical high‐standard FTA. It finds that there is a large gap between China's current tariff status and a high‐standard FTA, and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries. However, the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous. Analysis at the industrial level shows that, although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs, more jobs would be created in most industries. The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive, creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China. Therefore, China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.     

Non-tariff and overall protection: evidence across countries and over time

This paper analyzes the evolution of the incidence and intensity of non-tariff measures (NTMs). It extends earlier work by measuring protection from NTMs over time from a newly available database and provides evidence on the evolution of NTMs. In particular, building on Kee et al. (Econ J 119(534):172–199, 2009), this paper estimates the ad valorem equivalents of NTMs for 97 countries at the product level over the period 1997–2015. We show that the incidence and the intensity of NTMs were both increasing over this period, with NTMs becoming an even more dominant source of trade protection. We are also able to investigate the evolution of overall protection derived jointly from tariffs and NTMs. The results show that the overall protection level, for most countries and products, has not decreased despite the fall in tariffs associated with multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements in recent decades. We also document an increase in overall trade protection during the recent 2008 financial crisis. Overall, this study sheds light on an under-researched aspect of trade liberalization: the proliferation and increase of NTMs.     

The scale of Norwegian interwar unemployment in international perspective

Abstract

The author offers revised estimates of Norwegian interwar unemployment, and argues that total unemployment as a percentage of the labour force was considerably lower than the unemployment rate for trade unionists. The new figures, suggesting annual unemployment to hover between 5 and 10 percent for most of the interwar period, seem somewhat lower than the scale of Norwegian interwar unemployment according to the conventional view. However, they correspond well with similar calculations carried out for other countries. suggesting that unemployment as a percentage of the total labour force was about 1.5-3 times lower than that among insured workers.     

Land ownership in the nordic countries

Abstract

The article examines the relationship between the Norwegian State and international cartels and trusts in the interwar years. In this period, Norway was at the forefront with regard to implementing legislation regulating cartels, yet the legislation was not an antitrust legislation in the modern sense. It was aimed not only at protecting consumer interests, but more importantly at defending domestic businesses against foreign monopolies and cartels. In the article we examine how the Norwegian authorities interacted with international cartels and trusts in seven different cases in the interwar period. The study shows that although there was a deep seated scepticism towards concentration of market power in Norway, cartels received support from the Norwegian government when they were deemed to be beneficial to Norwegian economic interests. The legislation was used to foster the development of domestic cartels, while at the same time it was employed as a tool to limit the operations of foreign cartels and trusts.     

The First 100 Years of Tariffs in Australia: the Colonies

This paper reviews the history of tariffs imposed by the six Australian colonies during the nineteenth century. In each of the colonies, we identify the starting dates for the first tariffs, first preferences, and other features, and the turning points in the levels of tariffs. We then construct a time series of the average tariff levels in the individual colonies and an average for all six colonies combined. The conclusion notes general features of the pattern of tariffs and how the main features of colonial tariffs, such as the favourable treatment of intermediate inputs, the complex differentiation of tariff rates within industries, and the protection implicit in the excise tax system all carried over to the Commonwealth Customs Tariff in the twentieth century.     

Time and path dependencies in foreign acquisition behaviours: The history of Danish take-overs abroad

Abstract

Is the present investment behaviour of firms acquiring other firms abroad an outcome of historic tradition and the time period in which the take-over started? For example, avoiding tariffs was a popular strategy in the period before World War I. Today, the build up of competence is a central strategy. Throughout the research period covered in this paper, market access is an important acquisition motive. This paper illustrates acquisition motives as a product of time and path dependencies, seen in the case of Danish industrial firms acquiring foreign firms between 1888 and the early 1990s. When deciding on their first international acquisition, most firms are influenced by the strategic trend of the period. They subsequently follow this motive for decades. However, some firms are able to break this time-related path dependency and follow the prevailing motive of the next period.     

Select bibliography of contributions to economic and social history appearing in Scandinavian books,periodicals and year-books, 1977

Abstract

The structure of markets, of production and of bargaining institutions provide us with important clues as to why British and Swedish bargaining developed in very different ways during the interwar period. To understand fully the choices which employers made and the responses of their workers to these policies we should, it is argued here, extend our analysis beyond the market environment and the institutional structures which emerged in the two countries. This essay provides evidence that the different cultural and political values of the participants was an important formative influence in the making of the bargaining system. We seek to demonstrate this point by a brief survey of the wider social and political context in which the bargaining practices of the metal working trades were developed in this period, and suggest that we need to see the local as well as central organisations of workers and employers as contributors to this process.     

安徽省规上制造业企业R&D投入产出效率分析

规模以上制造业企业是工业企业的主要组成部分,而规模以上工业企业又是整个社会创新的主体,因此需要了解规模以上制造业企业的R&D投入产出效率,并在此基础上找出提高其效率的有效办法。采用DEA模型对安徽省规模以上制造业企业的31个行业和16个地区的R&D投入产出效率进行定量评价。经研究分析发现,安徽省规模以上制造业企业的大部分行业的R&D投入产出效率较高,但仍然有部分行业存在R&D投入浪费和R&D产出不足的现象。另外,安徽省不同区域间也存在着R&D资源配置不均的情况。因此,必须要强化政府政策引导,建立发展产业集群,发挥区域优势,才能优化R&D资源配置,缩小行业间和区域间的差距。     

中美贸易摩擦实际关税加征的测算及其影响——基于细分产品数据的研究

基于中美贸易HS6位码细分产品贸易数据以及美国对华出口产品关税加征清单,本文测算了中美贸易摩擦对中国对美HS6位码细分出口产品实际关税加征幅度及其产业影响.文章结果显示,2018年、2019年中国输美产品承担的加税总金额为540.63亿美元,税率平均增加了5.22％,其中,计算机、电子元器件、家具、汽车零部件及配件等产...     

碳排放规制下中国对外贸易的发展

基于环境保护和贸易保护的目的,部分国家提出了征收＂碳关税＂的诉求。这将对中国的出口贸易产生什么样的影响？文章根据各行业的碳排放强度和出口贸易细分数据,分析了征收碳关税可能对各行业产生的影响并提出了应对之策。     

Catching up with the Technology Frontier: Finnish Manufacturing Productivity, 1975–2003

Abstract

Labour productivity in Finnish manufacturing industry grew at the rapid average annual rate of 5 per cent from 1975 to 2003. The labour productivity growth was broad-based, or yeast-like, in the 1970s and 1980s, with contributions from multi-factor productivity gains in the paper and metal industries dominating. In the 1990s productivity growth was much more mushroom-like, that is, concentrated in the electronics industry. The level of labour productivity in Finnish manufacturing matched that of the USA by the end of the second millennium. Labour costs and unit labour costs remained at only three-quarters of the US level, although real hourly compensation increased steadily. After 1995 manufacturing industry constituted a quarter of the Finnish economy but contributed a third of overall economic growth.     

DID GOOD INSTITUTIONS PRODUCE GOOD TARIFFS? EVIDENCE FROM TARIFF PROTECTION IN COLONIAL VICTORIA

Were tariff rates in the Australian colony of Victoria directed towards growth‐enhancing industries or rent seekers? Recent research suggests tariffs may be welfare enhancing if they are directed at industries with positive externalities; something more likely when institutions are strong. Using disaggregated tariff data for the years 1872, 1880, and 1890, we analyse the relationship between industry characteristics and tariffs, finding little evidence that Victorian industries with positive externalities received tariff protection. Our results throw doubt on good institutions necessarily producing good tariff outcomes and suggest the relationship between tariffs and growth is more complex than current studies assume.     

Endogenous and exogenous variables in trade agreement policy:

Abstract

Trade agreement negotiations are the forum in which a state tries to synchronise its trade policies with other countries. This article examines the effects of endogenous and exogenous variables in trade agreement decision-making. The study concentrates on Finland's most important trade agreement negotiations with the Soviet Union, Germany, Great Britain, and EFT A from the 1930s to the 1960s. Finland was a small, open economy that was dependent on foreign trade. In the 1930s Finland had to adapt to international protectionism, which came to dominate international trade until the late 1950s. During the Second World War Finland had to regulate her foreign trade as a part of rationing systems. After the war protectionist ideas continued to dominate international trade policy decision-making. Accordingly, many regulative policies survived into the post-war period too. Finally, deregulation in Finnish foreign trade policy started in the late 1950s, the FINN-EFTA-negotiations being the final turning point to a more liberal era in foreign trade. The essential question in the article is, what kind of influence did the endogenous interests have on Finnish trade policy decision-making considering the various situations in international politics, for example, protectionist and deregulative tendencies.     

Norway's liberalisation of trade and payments in the 1950s

Abstract

While historical scholarship has focused on the domestic macroeconomic adjustment to trade liberalisation of the 1950s in terms of fiscal, monetary and incomes policies, this study deals with the liberalisation itself. From the perspective of the domestic political economy it provides an account of Norway's policies towards the European trade and payments schemes. It argues that although national ambitions were constrained by multilateral European liberalisation, a successful policy mix of exploiting EPU credits, delaying import quota liberalisation and selectively raising tariffs was pursued. It also argues that the government's sympathy towards the stillborn Nordic customs union in 1954 originated in this policy mix.