全球贸易衰退、价值链重构及中国出口价值链升级研究

2008年国际金融危机爆发后,全球贸易和价值链分工位次发生了明显的变化。发达经济体国内价值链出现收缩,发展中经济体国内价值链出现延伸,全球贸易一改之前的长期增长态势,转而出现了衰退。与此同时,新兴经济力量的崛起、贸易增加值分布格局的改变、微笑曲线的变化及全球价值链的本地化区域化收缩,都推动着全球价值链的重构。虽然全球贸易衰退会严重影响中国出口贸易转型升级,但全球价值链重构有助于中国企业打破低端锁定局面。在此背景下,应积极引导中国企业从低端锁定转向锁定高端,加快构建自贸区网络以推动中国贸易向边境内深化,并借助"一带一路"平台加快构建中国主导的全球价值链网络,从而实现中国出口价值链升级。     

中国外贸增速变化的行业差异性——基于全球价值链参与度视角

当前,中国出口贸易增速虽然在整体层面上出现大幅下滑,但从行业层面看却表现出巨大的差异性。通过特征事实的考察和初步的相关性分析可以发现,行业层面出口增速变化表现出的差异性与全球价值链分工参与程度的差异性有关。因此在全球经济进入深度调整期,尤其是全球价值链分工边际深化难度逐步加大的背景下,以及中国经济发展进入"新常态",尤其是步入传统比较优势逐步丧失的新阶段后,中国需要依托技术进步等构筑新型比较优势,夯实进一步融入乃至扎根全球价值链的基础;另一方面,应抓住和充分利用"一带一路"倡议提供的机遇,尽快构建起中国自身的全球价值链。这不仅是实现中国出口贸易"稳增长"的战略举措,也是实现出口贸易转型升级和发展更高水平开放型经济的关键所在。     

价值链分工演进如何影响贸易增长:现象、理论及模拟

当前,包括中国在内的全球贸易增速下降现象,引起了理论和实践部门的极大关注。文章从全球价值链分工动态演进的视角,基于分工演进和贸易增长等经验描述,构建理论模型刻画了当前贸易增速下降的成因,并在理论先导下进行了数值模拟。结论表明,全球价值链分工演进的阶段性变化对贸易增速具有深刻影响,当价值链分工深化到一定阶段后,在贸易规模扩大的"基数效应"和分工深化的"边际效应"作用下,贸易增速表现为不断下降的趋势。这正是当前全球贸易增速下降的根本原因之一。从单个国家角度看,价值链攀升的动态演进是一个不断"挤出"贸易"重复统计"部分的过程,从而也在一定程度上降低了统计意义的贸易增速。当前全球价值链分工边际深化难度加大、中国在全球价值链中的地位不断提升正是我国外贸增速下降面临的客观环境,同时也说明了中国外贸亟待从以往"以量取胜"向"以质取胜"方向转变的必要性和紧迫性。     

中国增加值出口规模测算与行业结构解析

增加值贸易核算以全球价值链为研究视角,考察一国或地区生产的增加值通过各种路径进入其他国家和地区最终消费品的状况。文章利用世界投入产出表测算的中国增加值出口规模呈上升趋势,1995~2011年的增加值出口比例变化显示中国参与全球价值链分工的强度不断增大,出口行业结构变化是该比例变化的主要原因。中国应加强与新兴经济体的生产价值链合作,重视发展服务业和服务贸易出口,提高出口产品的技术含量,以提升中国在全球价值链中的地位。     

金融危机对中国农产品出口贸易的影响分析

由美国"次贷危机"蔓延形成的全球性的金融危机,已经对中国农产品出口造成了一定程度的影响。农产品出口增速减缓、进出口贸易逆差持续扩大、出口竞争力下降、出口市场竞争加剧等。为了应对此轮金融危机对中国农产品出口的不利影响,本文提出了加强对汇率的调节、优化农产品出口结构,培育新的出口竞争优势、实施多元化出口战略等政策建议。     

全球价值链（GVC）视角下合肥制造业产业升级路径研究

经济全球化背景下,国际分工形式由传统产业间分工向价值链分工转移,世界各国在全球价值链分工中存在各自的比较优势产业,形成了互利互惠的国际分工形式。本文以"微笑曲线"作为理论支撑,深入剖析中国某些产业在全球价值链分工中暴露出的重重问题。在此基础上,文章对全中国的价值链升级问题进行了深入探讨,提出了合肥实现制造业产业价值链升级对策建议。     

垂直专业化分工与中国制成品出口复杂度——基于国内增加值的视角

本文基于国内增加值计算2000～2013年中国制成品出口复杂度,并对融入全球价值链程度是否提升制造业出口技术水平进行实证检验。结果表明:融入全球价值链是影响出口技术水平提升最重要的因素,中国制成品出口技术结构得到一定优化,但总体呈倒"U"型增长,存在价值链低端"锁定"的固化效应。     

双重价值链、空间溢出与制造业增长

基于中国区域间投入产出表和增加值核算框架，本文测算了中国省际地区参与双重价值链的程度，并构建国内价值链、全球价值链、市场化改革、交通网络等对制造业增长的空间影响的实证分析框架，考察产业间关联的空间溢出效应、溢出效应的异质性及动态演进过程。研究发现：参与国内价值链和全球价值链分工均促进了制造业增长，前者的空间溢出效应为正且存在地区的异质性，后者相反；参与双重价值链对低技术行业产出的促进作用高于其对高技术行业的作用，出口升级可促进本地制造业增长且空间溢出效应为正。进口投入占比直接降低本地制造业增长，且对低技术行业产出的负效应大于高技术行业；市场化改革、交通网络和资本劳动比例促进制造业增长。     

后发经济体突破价值链"低端锁定"的升级机制研究——基于OFDI的研究视角

随着全球经济一体化进程迅速深化,中国在全球价值链分工中的活动日益密切,但是“中国制造”仍然面临“低端锁定”困局。鉴于此,本文基于对“低端困局”原因的剖析,从对外直接投资视角出发,通过深入分析OFDI逆向技术溢出效应和产业转移效应对产业结构升级的影响及影响机制,提出后发经济体在参与全球价值链分工中同步实现产业结构升级的可行路径。对后发经济体突破在全球价值链分工中的“低端锁定”困境,实现产业结构升级具有重要的战略性参考价值。     

区域贸易协定的水平深度对参与全球价值链的影响

本文利用世界银行的贸易协定内容数据库所提供的有关区域贸易协定中的52项条款规定,以及每项条款规定法律可执行性的信息,构建区域贸易协定的水平深度指数,实证检验其对出口经济体参与全球价值链的影响。实证结果表明:区域贸易协定的"总深度"条款对出口经济体在全球价值链中的前向垂直专业化参与率有明显的促进作用;其中"WTO+"条款与"WTO-X深度"条款对出口经济体参与全球价值链的影响具有较大的差异;"核心深度"条款对出口经济体在全球价值链中的前向垂直专业化参与率也有明显的促进作用,但将"核心深度"条款区分为"边界深度"条款与"边界后深度"条款后,只有"边界后深度"条款对出口经济体在全球价值链中的前向垂直专业化参与率有明显的促进作用;在"核心深度"条款中,"边界深度"条款需要与"边界后深度"条款相互配合才能发挥作用,进而对经济体参与全球价值链产生影响。     

A Global MBA for Tomorrow's Global Business Leaders

Abstract

Traditional IB programs have received mixed reviews from the corporate world. With this in mind, the Suffolk GMBA was benchmarked against the leading international business programs. The Suffolk GMBA was designed to be different and to ascertain the global environment in which business operates. A unique feature of the GMBA curriculum detailed in this article is the combination of Boston's international business locational advantage with functional integration of the many disciplines that make international business unique. Borrowing components from the fields of economics, government and politics, finance, marketing, ethics, and law, a curriculum matrix was developed identifying and sequencing the key topics to be taught. The authors also explain potential pitfalls and outline a model which can be successfully implemented in other graduate international business programs. This program is shaping the thoughts and actions of tomorrow's global business leaders through its integrative decision-making framework of global perspectives and competencies.     

我国建筑业大步走出国门探讨——服务贸易增长又一重大领域分析

我国建筑业走过了资源驱动、投资驱动的产业发展阶段,具有了相当的经济与技术基础,但目前产品供大于求,竞争激烈,大部分没有进入创新驱动产业阶段,需求增长趋缓、宏观调控下发展速度下降.同时,我国对外投资严重落后于利用外资,服务贸易创汇严重落后于货物创汇,以对外工程承包为主体的建筑业所创外汇与经济大国、货物贸易大国、建筑业大国极不相称.大力支持以对外工程承包为主体的建筑业走出国门,推动建筑业的继续高速增长及带动产品和劳务的出口创汇是经济与出口贸易增长的现实和长期选择.     

Creating Global Brand Names: The Use of Sound Symbolism

ABSTRACT

Creating meaningful brand names for international markets can be particularly challenging because translation may distort intended meaning. To mitigate this issue, marketers can imbue meaning into a brand name with sound symbolism, which refers to the direct linkage between sound and meaning. The aim of this article is to examine whether sound symbolism effects are maintained after translating a brand name from English to Hindi. Results of an empirical study with Hindi-speaking subjects indicate that the sound–meaning relationship can persist after translation. A primary contribution is that sound symbolism can help create global brand names with consistent meaning across languages.     

Global and Cultural Characteristics of Humor in Advertising:

Extending theoretical frameworks tested in other national markets, this study provides an in-depth look at the structural and content characteristics of television advertising that uses humor in Japan. Similar types of humor structures are found but important content differences are observed as well. In addition, structural characteristics previously shown to be associated with higher levels of perceived humor in U.S. television advertising, are not found to affect perceptions of humor in Japanese television advertising. The study's implications for academics and international marketing managers interested in improving performance in the Japanese market are discussed.     

国际贸易政策呈周期性变化的原因探讨

历史和现实都证明，贸易政策具有周期性变化的明显特征。这种特征出现的根本动因在于：对国家利益的考虑；生产与市场的矛盾运动；发展不平衡规律的作用。另外，世界范围内产业结构的大转移、大调整以及经济增长模式的修正等也是影响贸易政策呈现出周期性变化特征的重要原因。     

国际货币体系视角下世界经济失衡的根源探析——对世界经济失衡的另一种解释

次贷危机之后,世界经济失衡根源与再平衡的研究重要性凸显。本文通过建立一个基于公共选择理论和国际金融理论的研究框架,指出美国政治制度的系统性缺陷——"选票至上"的公共物品供给逻辑决定了当前国际货币体系的形成,而该体系又通过经常账户与资本账户传导机制造成了世界经济失衡的局面。世界经济失衡的根源在于美国现行的政治制度。因此,世界经济的再平衡与美国政治决策机制的改革只是同一逻辑的不同表述。当前再平衡进程受阻的必然结果是,贸易摩擦和汇率争端将成为今后相当长时期内国际经济政策协调的主题。     

From Local to Global: Developing a Business Model for Indian MNCs to Achieve Global Competitive Advantage

In view of turbulent market responses, building resilient business models for global competitiveness is a crucial challenge for firms in emerging economies. This article examines how Indian firms can build resilient business models that can facilitate global competitiveness. The article presents a research model that defines requirements of domestic advantage. Key issues related to building a more responsive, resilient, and agile businesses in Indian context are discussed. To promote future research issues, the authors develop propositions that explain the relationships between relevant constructs. Using a single firm, extensive case study methodology, the authors illustrate the growth processes for domestic advantage and global competitiveness.     

Global Consistency Versus Local Responsiveness: Deutsche Telekom's Human Resource Management Strategies in Central and Eastern Europe

This article analyses the competing demands faced by Deutsche Telekom for global consistency and local responsiveness as it attempted to coordinate its human resource management strategies across its Eastern European subsidiaries. It considers the degree to which the former economic and political histories of Eastern Europe continue to influence and/or constrain multinational corporation strategies and practices in the post-2000 era. Institutional path dependency, strategic international human resource management, and international industrial relations theories are used to assist in analyzing the data. The study concludes that managerial constraints associated with the historical and economic legacies of these former socialist countries are rapidly declining, thereby allowing multinational firms to implement “Western-style” human resource management strategies. It further suggests that industrial relations institutions at the European Union level, rather than individual country level, have the greatest potential to impact on international human resource management strategies in the region. Multinational corporations should therefore engage in more-integrated strategic international human resource management and international industrial relations approaches.     

A Conceptual Framework for Instilling a Global Mindset in Business Students

ABSTRACT

This article proposes a conceptual framework for instilling and fostering a global mindset among students of business in general and international business in particular. Students learning to become global managers must first have an open mindset and be aware of changes in themselves. When managers encounter problems at a global firm, they need to consider the unique situations that cause problems and create appropriate solutions. Different settings or environments require different approaches, reflecting the complexity of heterogeneity and indeterminacy in decision-making. We suggest pedagogical methods for teaching international business by instilling a global mindset in business students.