Multiple Forces Driving China＇s Economic Development： A New Analytic Framework

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised.     

Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China＇s Growth？

One of the missing pieces preventing us from understanding recent Chinese economic development is the role played by openness and capital accumulation in this process. The question is whether the sharp economic＇ growth that the Chinese economy has experienced is another case of export-led growth due to the open-door policy or whether, on the contrary, this growth has been caused by high domestic savings and investment rates （and the consequent capital accumulation）. To answer this question, we employed an empirical framework of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that both investment （in physieal capital and R＆D） and exports, as well as the exchange rate policy, are relevant factors in explaining China＇s long-run economic growth over the past 4 decades.     

Growth models and analysis of development

This paper deals with remnants of neoclassical elements in Keynesian and post- Keynesian throught, and attempts to demonstrate that the elimination of these elements from our modes of thinking would not impoverish economic analysis as a means of solving real problems.In the Keynesian analysis the causation from investment to savings is exhibited in terms of income determination. When put in terms of a capital theory model, the vector of savings is represented in two ways: firstly, real savings, and secondly, counterpart real savings. The former coincides with the investment vector and the latter with the vector of consumption goods foregone for diverting resources towards equipment making. Thus the Keynesian causation in capital theory terms makes the concept of national savings as an independent variable redundant.The Robinsonian causation in a golden age with full employment and its reversal of direction in a steady state with non-employment are then considered. But in each of these, variables like rate of savings and output-capital ratio are found to be dormat variables. They are termed as null variables which, being of no account in both full-employment and unemployment situations, could, without loss, be deleted from the repertory of analytical tools. The Harrod formula of warranted rate of growth, when put in causal form, thus becomes a redundant portion of economics of growth. The real determinants of the growth rate and real wage rate on which the analysis of growth or of development should be based, are also depicted.     

Age structure effects on economic growth — Swedish evidence

Abstract

This paper argues that age structure is an important factor behind variations in the rate of economic growth. Theoretically, the argument is based on Romer's model of endogenous technical change, human capital theory and the life-cycle theory of savings. Taken together, these theories imply that growth rates are dependent on age structure. Empirically, the existence of age structure effects is demonstrated through an analysis of Swedish growth data for the 1950 to 1989 period. The age pattern of these effects is consistent with an explanation based on differences in savings behaviour and human capital accumulation over the life cycle.     

后人口红利时代的经济增长

人口红利是指人口转变中的某一阶段出现充足供给劳动力和高储蓄率给经济带来的正面影响。人口红利之后将面临高老年人口比所导致的人口负债。本文在理论层面讨论人口转变与经济增长的关系,认为人口红利期劳动力增长和高储蓄率是经济增长的动力,人口红利期之后必须通过资本积累、技术进步和人力资源开发,才能保持可持续增长。研究了中国充分挖掘人口转变潜在贡献的现实困境,给出后人口红利时代的理性建议。     

Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis*

There is a general consensus that human capital is a major factor behind long‐run economic growth. Yet, on a macro level, the empirical results do not always seem to concur with this view. To explain this gap between theory and empirics, more focus has been laid on measurement error and data quality. Using an alternative estimate of the stock of human capital, based on Judson (2002), we find evidence that the two major views on the role of human capital in economic development by Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) coexist and are by no means mutually exclusive. Using a Johansen cointegration test, we find that in India and Indonesia the level of human capital is cointegrated with the level of aggregate income during the whole 20th century, which confirms the theory of Lucas (1988). In Japan, however, the Lucasian approach can be verified only for the first half of the century, while after 1950 there is cointegration between the growth rate of aggregate income and the level of human capital, which is in line with Romer's view.     

县域金融中介发展与县域经济增长的共振分析——基于河北省县域经济与金融现状的分析

金融发展与经济增长既相互促进又相互制约,经济水平落后,扼制金融资本的形成;金融积累的低水平又限制了经济的增长。金融发展水平的落后、低效是经济增长的最大障碍,打破这个链条的突破口应选择在金融的发展上。河北省各县域经济发展极度不平衡,这与各地金融发展的差异有关,因此如何通过金融规模、结构和效率的提高,实现资本在县域的最优化配置和经济的增长是本课题阶段性研究的重点内容。     

人力资本与滨海新区经济发展

人力资本是影响区域经济发展最为关键的因素之一。本文依据人力资本理论和新经济增长理论,分析了人力资本对天津滨海新区经济发展的决定作用,进而提出了滨海新区人力资本开发的思路和对策。     

Foreign capital flows and economic growth in East Asian countries

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the effect of various types of capital flow on the growth process of the East Asian countries, including China. The empirical analysis was based on dynamic panel data and we found; first, that domestic savings contribute positively to long-term economic growth. Second, we confirmed that FDI is growth enhancing and that its impact is felt both in the short and long run. Additionally, FDI influence on growth is much higher than domestic savings. Third, short-term capital inflow has adverse effect on the long-term as well as short-term growth prospects and it appears to be sensitive to long-term capital inflows. Fourth, long-term debt has positive effect on growth but its effect does somewhat disappear in the long-term. By and large, the observed positive contribution of FDI in the growth process of East Asian economies is a robust finding. From policy perspective, the evidence convincingly suggests that countries that are successful in attracting FDI can finance more investments and grow faster than those that deter FDI.     

金融摩擦下利率市场化改革对经济增长的影响研究

当前我国正面临经济增长放缓、流动性趋紧、利率居高不下的复杂局面,如何推进利率市场化改革以维护金融稳定、促进经济增长是重要的课题。文章构建包含金融摩擦因素的经济增长模型,并选用1980—2013年的数据进行实证检验。研究认为,利率变化对储蓄的影响是正向的,对投资的影响在2000年前后由正转负,与经济增长长期负相关,随着利率市场化改革的深入,利率的经济增长弹性呈增大趋势。未来利率市场化改革的重点,在短期应稳健审慎推进存款利率上限放开,在长期应优化金融市场结构畅通利率微观传导机制。     

Groeizaam financieel beleid

Summary Economic growth, and the level of savings required to finance it, have increased in the Netherlands since the second world war to a considerably larger extent than could reasonably have been expected. The Netherlands are among the countries which, after the period of recovery and economic revival, have become under the spell of the idea of economic growth. The country was able to realize this growth by using an amount in the order of magnitude of 20 per cent. of its national income (calculated at market prices) for the formation of capital.This percentage was attained thanks to the fact that savings of private individuals were largely supplemented by government savings, by business savings (effectuated through keeping appreciable portions of net profits in the business for the purpose of strengthening reserves), and by forming (or enlarging the amount of) funds, set aside for carrying out arrangements made for the payment of old age pensions, widows' pensions and the like. More than half of the above-mentioned total of 20 per cent. was due to savings of these three kinds. As such savings are often not felt by private individuals as sacrifices, they may be called disguised or veiled savings.The author pays special attention to government savings. They have been a permanent feature in the Netherlands since the end of the war; and they have contributed to no small extent towards financing economic growth. They emanated from surplusses of current central government income above current central government expenditure, and enabled the central government to finance important investments, also for the account of local authorities.For the year 1960 a savings quota of 23 per cent. of the national income was registered. Since then the percentage has gone back to 17 1/4 per cent. in 1963. In the meantime impulses towards economic growth have gained strength. With a view to this development the government recommends serious endeavours directed to re-establishing a savings quota of 23 per cent. of the national income. Given the strong tendency towards increased consumptive spending which has made itself felt during the last few years, the author realizes that this is a desideratum, by no means easy to be fulfilled. He does not, however, consider its fulfilment as a task which cannot be accomplished.Rede, uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar in de leer der openbare financiën aan de Rijksuniversiteit te Leiden op 2 december 1966.     

经济增长、模型再造与中国经济增长方式的转变

经济增长理论是社会经济发展的一种理论反映,源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学派,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的经济理论,大体经历了三个发展阶段.现代经济增长理论及模型的建立强调科学技术进步、人力资本积累对经济增长的促进作用.但是,发达国家经济学家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能科学完整的建立经济增长理论及模型,因此必须遵循马克思的方法论从理论为实际的反映入手建立科学模型,并以此指导中国社会经济技术实践,特别是经济增长方式的转变实践.     

Quantifying shifts in primary factor demand in the South African economy

This article uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explain the persistence in the high levels of unemployment in the South African economy in spite of modest to relatively strong output growth. We make use of a historical simulation for the period 2006–13 and find that the capital–labour ratio increased despite a relative increase in the rental price of capital. Classical economic theory suggests that changes in industry preferences toward capital and labour lead to adjusted capital–labour ratios. We quantify the changes in industry factor preferences during this period and highlight their impact in explaining observed labour market outcomes. Other changes in the economy over this period are also quantified.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE URBAN–RURAL DISPARITY IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA

With China's economic development and capital accumulation in the industrial sectors, the human capital level of the labours moving from the rural areas could no longer meet the demand of the industrial sectors. Therefore, “structural shortage of technical labour” emerged in the labour market as a result of excess of demand for high‐skilled workers. Previous literature mostly focused on the relationship between rural human‐capital level and labour movement, income change and economic growth, but in this article, the authors focus on the study of the relative disparity of urban and rural human capital and labour movement, as well as the effect of the change of urban–rural human capital gap on industrial output, profit and social welfare. This article shows that bridging the urban–rural gap in respect of human capital level could not only improve the situation of the “structural shortage of technical labour,” but also have a positive effect on the general social welfare.     

Health investment,physical capital accumulation,and economic growth

This paper analyzes the effect of health investment, and hence of health capital, on physical capital accumulation and long-run economic growth in an extended Ramsey model with an Arrow–Romer production function and a Grossman (1972) utility function. The paper concludes that economic growth is related to both the health growth rate and the health level. While growth in health capital always facilitates economic growth, the gross effect of health level on the rate of economic growth depends on how it affects physical capital accumulation. If the negative effect of health on economic growth through its influence on physical capital accumulation is not taken into consideration, then health level has a positive effect on the rate of economic growth by improving the efficiency of labor production. However, since health investment may crowd out physical capital investment and thus influence physical capital accumulation, excessive investment in health may have a negative effect on economic growth. Empirical tests of these theoretical hypotheses using panel data from individual provinces of China produce results that are consistent with our theoretical conclusions.     

Market reforms and consumption puzzles in China

China exhibits above average savings and below average consumption as shares of total economic activity when compared with other countries. At the same time, to create more balanced growth at home and rebalance key bilateral trade and capital flow relationships, China's leadership is trying to increase domestic demand. To complement studies that investigate the high rate of savings in China, this study focuses on the variation in consumption as a share of GDP across provinces between 1979 and 2004. Drawing on well-established consumption theories and work done on savings behavior in China, this paper develops an empirical investigation of the variables hypothesized to influence the pattern of consumption across regions.We find that the normal, economic variables have a small explanatory power if significant at all, while the key variables influencing the macro consumption share are structural, and mostly related to government behavior. For example, local government expenditure on health and education is significant and has a relatively large effect on consumption. Consistent with this we also find a positive relationship between consumption shares and the size of the state sector and the share of tax revenue in GDP. We also find some evidence that financial development has a positive effect on consumption shares. Our results suggest that in order for domestic consumption to be increased in the future, new public and private options to replace the declining security and responsibility of the prior state-dominated system will be needed.     

Stages of growth revisited

Neoclassical growth theory and the institutional approach to economic development grew apart during the 1970s and 1980s. More integration of these two schools of thought can lead to better analysis and policy. This paper identifies shortcomings of the neoclassical model, especially an overemphasis on savings and investment, and explores stages of growth theory in the context of institutional economics. Its strengths and weaknesses and its application to South Africa are considered.     

人口年龄结构转变对经常项目差额的影响机制与实证分析

本文对人口年龄结构转变作用于经常项目差额的影响机制进行了分析,在此基础上运用协整、基于VECM的Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析了劳动力抚养负担、经济增长和经常项目差额之间的动态关系。研究发现,应从长期性结构视角认识劳动力抚养负担对经常项目差额的反向作用;短期来看,二者之间不存在显著关系。与此不同,经济增长对经常项目的影响无论是长期还是短期都非常显著。快速减轻的劳动力抚养负担通过储蓄、消费、投资、出口以及政府财政收支等传导变量促使经常项目差额增加,这是人口年龄结构、经济增长以及经常项目差额之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。     

Mercantilism and urban inequalities in eighteenth-century Sweden

Abstract

It is sometimes argued that inequality promotes growth. If savings are the key to economic growth and the marginal propensity to save rises with income, a more unequal society will save more and grow faster. Thus, by sacrificing equality and concentrating income and wealth in the hands on the entrepreneurial class, society might enjoy higher economic growth. The economic policies taken by the Swedish state during the eighteenth century had the explicit goal of concentrating trade and opportunities for income formation and capital accumulation in the hands of the merchant class. Both an older tradition as well as recent research have emphasised the positive sides of these policies, as the privileged merchants are depicted as dynamic engines of growth and an important factor in the process of capital accumulation. However, in this paper it is argued that this assertion is not warranted. The mercantilist policies resulted in neither measurable per capita growth nor dynamic transformation but in institutional rigidities and the enrichment of the rich and impoverishment of the poor, leading to increasing urban inequalities.     

Capital Theory and the Process of Inter-Temporal Coordination: The Austrian Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth

Appreciation of the necessity of the inter-temporal coordination of heterogeneous capital goods is the chief contribution of Austrian economics to the theory of economic growth. Austrian theory illustrates why an institutional environment of freely formed prices predicated on private property is essential for economic growth. This leads Austrians to have a unique take on Solow growth theory, the financing gap model, national economic planning, and aggregative development measures.