Does lending behaviour of banks in emerging economies vary by ownership? Evidence from the Indian banking sector

While much has been discussed about the relationship between ownership and financial performance of banks in emerging markets, literature about cross-ownership differences in credit market behaviour of banks in emerging economies is sparse. Using a portfolio choice model and bank-level data from India for 9 years (1995–96 to 2003–04), we examine banks’ behaviour in the context of credit markets of an emerging market economy. Our results indicate that, in India, the data for the domestic banks fit well the aforementioned portfolio-choice model, especially for private banks, but the model cannot explain the behaviour of foreign banks. In general, allocation of assets between risk-free government securities and risky credit is affected by past allocation patterns, stock exchange listing (for private banks), risk averseness of banks, regulations regarding treatment of NPA, and ability of banks to recover doubtful credit. It is also evident that banks deal with changing levels of systematic risk by altering the ratio of securitized to non-securitized credit.     

Measuring Credit Risk of a Bank's Corporate Loan Portfolio Using Advanced Internal Ratings Base Approach

Abstract

The use of technical and advanced approaches in the measurement of credit risk of banks' portfolios has nowadays become a very hot issue. The most recent technical report issued by the Basel Committee in May 2003 has concentrated heavily on the measurement of credit risk using either foundation or advanced Internal Ratings Base (IRB) approaches. This empirical research study attempts to measure credit risk of a bank's corporate loan portfolio, including firms from 10 different Turkish sectors. The monthly observations of the total amount of corporate loans and the total amount of corporate loans at default across various sectors are downloaded from the web page of Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) in a period of 1999-2002. This period covers 47 monthly observations since CBT has captured sectoral corporate loans beginning of 1999. Therefore, the observed sectoral default rates are needed to be simulated to obtain a nicely shaped distribution. Monte Carlo simulation is applied for 1,000 times. Based on the simulated default rates, the expected sectoral default rates are computed. Next, a credit quality rating scale is fitted into sectoral default rates distributions. Finally, the sectoral weights in the whole loan portfolio are multiplied by the expected sectoral default rates matrix, considering cross-sectoral correlations to get the total amount of the bank's credit risk and capital requirement. It is assumed that sectoral monthly default rates are a good representative of the default risk of a sample bank's corporate loan portfolio since no publicly available data on any particular bank's corporate loan portfolio composition exists. Nevertheless, this research may be a good application for measuring the credit risk of banks' corporate loan portfolios using advanced IRB approach.     

Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings

Although the corporate credit risk literature includes many studies modelling the change in the credit risk of corporate bonds over time, there has been far less analysis of the credit risk for portfolios of consumer loans. However, behavioural scores, which are calculated on a monthly basis by most consumer lenders, are the analogues of ratings in corporate credit risk. Motivated by studies of corporate credit risk, we develop a Markov chain model based on behavioural scores for establishing the credit risk of portfolios of consumer loans. Although such models have been used by lenders to develop models for the Basel Accord, nothing has been published in the literature on them. The model which we suggest differs in many respects from the corporate credit ones based on Markov chains — such as the need for a second order Markov chain, the inclusion of economic variables and the age of the loan. The model is applied using data on a credit card portfolio from a major UK bank.     

Favoring the small and the plenty: Islamic banking for MSMEs

While MSMEs form the backbone of many countries, most of them suffer from limited access to finance. We extend the literature by examining whether Islamic banks, compared to their conventional peers, favor more the MSMEs credit market segment in Turkey. We do this by considering various aspects of the lending behavior towards MSMEs (total lending, foreign currency lending, loan commitments, loan quality, and revenues) across different MSMEs size categories (micro, small and medium-sized firms). Our results show that once we control for bank-specific characteristics, we find that Islamic banks are more engaged with MSME financing and generate more revenues from servicing MSMEs. Concerning the quality of the MSME lending portfolio, no distinguishable patterns were observed between Islamic and conventional banks.     

Stock Market Response to the Financial Regulations in the Mortgage‐Lending Market in Korea

This study investigates the economic impact of the financial regulations that aimed to control the housing market in Korea during the reign of late President Ro's Administration, which had diligently fought against the then speculative bubble in the Korean real‐estate market. We test for the validity of the general prediction that the financial regulations in the form of the loan‐to‐value (LTV) and debt‐to‐income (DTI) restrictions would have adverse impacts on the value of the firms operating in the mortgage‐lending industry. In this event study, we select two critical days as event dates and check whether the stock prices of the financial firms react negatively to the announcements of the regulations. Overall, the initial imposition of the DTI restrictions (i.e., the first event) adversely affects those banks that possess a relatively large number of mortgage loans in their asset portfolio. By contrast, banks that hold a small number of mortgage loans appear to benefit from the risk‐reducing effect of the DTI regulation. Subsequently, the reinforcement of the LTV and DTI rules (i.e., the second event) has negative impacts on the banks with large mortgage loans. The degree of this adverse effect is greater in the second event than in the first event (i.e., the DTI restrictions). The reinforced regulations also unfavorably affect the savings banks with large mortgage loans but to a lesser degree compared with their counterparts in the banks. Meanwhile, the reinforcement of the financial regulations has negligible impacts on the banks and the savings banks with smaller mortgage loans.     

Bank lending: The bank ownership focus in the pre- and post-global financial crisis periods

The objective of this research is to examine the impact of bank ownership on the composition of working capital, investment, and consumption loan types before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). The data has been grouped into pre-GFC and post-GFC sub-periods. The pre-GFC period encompasses the post-Asian crisis time period until 2006, just before the start of the GFC. The post-GFC period comprises the time period 2009 until 2016. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Banking Directory of the Indonesian Central Bank, commercial bank annual reports provided by Infobank magazine, and the Indonesian Banking Development Institute. The findings reveal the differences and changes in the composition of loan types for the different forms of bank ownership. Government-owned banks tend to focus on consumption loans, whereas foreign-owned banks outpace domestic-owned banks in the financing of working capital loans. After the GFC, government-owned banks increased their consumption loans significantly. This research augments the knowledge about loan portfolio compositions and trends pertaining to different bank types. It can serve as a benchmark and can be applied to enhance decision-making in the banking industry. Furthermore, Indonesian regulating authorities can utilize the information from a strategic and policy perspective to monitor, manage and control financial intermediation from a macroprudential perspective.     

The impact of prudential toolkits on loan growth in Central and Eastern European banking systems

This paper examines the effects of prudential policy on loan growth in 11 Central and Eastern European banking systems, spanning the period from 2000 to 2015. Based on the measures taken by the authorities of our sample countries, we build several prudential indices. Additionally, we control for the effects of several country-specific factors and bank-specific characteristics. Finally, we test the homogeneity of these effects, accounting for cycle, ownership, and bank effects. Generally, the empirical findings reveal a negative correlation between prudential toolkits and credit growth, with a conspicuous impact for tools targeting lending activity. We see that the effects of a change in the lending framework on loan growth are heterogeneous when we account for crisis and cycle patterns. Furthermore, the interaction between ownership and crisis reveals that, in normal times, foreign banks recorded higher loan growth compared to domestic banks. The opposite is true in turbulent times. The analysis of interactions between credit-based measures and bank-specific variables show that the effects of prudential actions depend on the bank size and leverage.     

A through-the-cycle model for retail lending economic capital

Problems in the US mortgage industry have shown weaknesses in the standard regulatory and economic capital approaches. Although a significant amount of discussion is occurring around how to segment portfolios or predict key variables in order to better fit the existing formulas, we believe that a re-examination of existing capital formulas with respect to credit risk is required.In this paper we develop a formula which is specifically tuned to the dynamics of retail loan portfolios and which could be employed for either regulatory capital or economic capital. The key advantages of this approach are that it is based upon a much more accurate model of retail loan defaults, does not require any new data feeds, is based upon readily available modeling frameworks, and can adapt to portfolio changes such as those observed in the US mortgage crisis.     

Role of credit and monetary policy in determining asset prices: Evidence from emerging market economies

We examine the relative dominance of credit and monetary policy shocks in influencing asset prices in emerging markets. Estimates from panel VAR models for 22 EMEs provide evidence of a significant impact of bank credit on house prices in contrast to trivial impact on stock prices, possibly due to prudential regulations on banks’ exposure to stock markets. Contractionary monetary policy triggers sizeable and persistent decline in stock than housing prices as higher interest rates may render the funding of leverage costlier. Global shocks play an important role in explaining fluctuations in domestic stock prices rather than house prices since the latter class of asset is largely non-tradable across countries.     

Bank fee-based shocks and the U.S. business cycle

Efficient liquidity matching requires from banks to track external shocks (e.g., GDP growth shocks, stock market shocks and monetary policy shocks) in order to optimally allocate their assets between loans and other business lines. Profit maximizing banks have to rebalance their product-mix to take advantage of these changes. However, even though banking is cyclical, and contemporaneously reacts to shocks outside the banking sphere, there may also be some feedback effects at play, whereby bank changes, in turn, could affect economic and financial conditions. Generalizing the results of Marcucci and Quagliariello (2006, 2009), who indeed find an asymmetric impact of credit shocks on economic and financial time series in recession, we use a similar VAR framework to show that an even stronger feedback effect is prevalent for fee-based shocks. If the feedback effects of credit and fee-based shocks might have been both at play before the subprime crisis, the feedback effect of credit shocks seems to have faded away during the subprime crisis, whereas the feedback effect stemming from fee-based shocks has gained further strength.     

Insolvency,moral hazard and expense preference behavior: Evidence from US savings and loan associations

This article applies the expense preference methodology to a study of determinants of employee compensation and occupancy costs for large samples of mutual and stock savings and loan associations. Strong evidence that insolvency is associated with significant increases in these costs is obtained. Further, we find that the effect of insolvency on managerial expense preference behavior is more pronounced for mutual than stock associations.     

Loan Loss Provisions by Banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore

This paper studies loan loss disclosures by banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore for the period 1993 through 2000. We find that unexpected loan loss provisions are positively related to bank stock returns and future cash flows. This indicates that Asian bank managers increase loan loss provisions to signal favorable cash flow prospects, and bank investors bid bank stock prices up when unexpected provisions are positive. These results are consistent with those obtained by Wahlen (1994) for US banks. We also examine the impact of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 on the loan loss variables. The results indicate that the association between the unexpected loan loss provisions and bank stock returns and future cash flows was significantly lower in the crisis years, relative to the non‐crisis period. Evidently, discretionary loan loss provisions had no signaling value during the crisis. This suggests that macroeconomic uncertainty influenced the strategic behavior of Asian bank managers and investors.     

基于高阶矩风险防范的银行资产负债组合优化模型研究——以A银行为例

资产负债管理能力是现代商业银行的基本能力,其核心在于风险控制和价值创造。商业银行资产负债组合优化是现代商业银行信贷管理框架中的核心内容,它对于保持银行资产流动性、安全性和赢利性的＂三性＂的最佳组合、优化配置资源、提高银行的生存能力和竞争能力,具有重要的现实意义。本文通过以贷款组合的VaR约束控制贷款组合的二阶矩,即控制了资产组合的风险;以贷款组合收益率的偏度约束控制贷款组合的三阶矩,即控制了贷款组合收益率发生总体损失的可能性;以组合收益率的峰度约束控制贷款组合的四阶矩,即减少了组合收益率发生极端损失的可能性,建立了资产分配的收益率均值-方差-偏度-峰度模型。     

Time-frequency co-movements between bank credit supply and economic growth in an emerging market: Does the bank ownership structure matter?

This study aims to shed some light on the causal link between bank credit supply and economic growth in Turkey for the banks with the different ownership structures between 1993Q4 and 2017Q3. Wavelet coherence test is used to obtain this objective and to answer the following questions: (i) does bank credit supply lead to economic growth in Turkey and vice versa, and (ii) does the bank ownership matters in this linkage? The findings from wavelet coherence reveal that between 1993 and 2003 in the short and medium term, economic growth leads credit supply but in the long run there is feedback causality between credit supply and economic growth for only public and private banks. However, in the long-run between 1993 and 2003 economic growth leads credit supply in the foreign banks in Turkey. Between 2004 and 2017, there is feedback causality between credit supply and economic growth. Moreover, our findings suggest that bank ownership affects the strength of the linkage between credit supply and economic growth in Turkey especially in the short and medium terms. More specially, within the three types of bank ownership, the findings imply that the strongest correlation among the variables is for the private banks while the weakest one is for foreign banks.     

Basel III liquidity rules: The implications for bank lending growth in Africa

This paper examines the possible loan growth effect of the Basel III NSFR and LCR requirements in Africa and seeks to determine whether the different regions of the continent are affected differently. The paper also offers what is possibly the first investigation of how the interaction between the performance of loan portfolios and the new Basel III liquidity requirements might shape bank loan growth rates. Using a dataset of 361 commercial banks across 38 African countries over the 2005–2015 period, our static and dynamic panel analyses show that both the NSFR and the LCR exert significant positive effects on bank loan growth rates. The results also reveal that the NSFR reduces the impact of the negative effect of poor performance of loan portfolios on bank loan growth rates. Compliance with the Basel III liquidity rules in Africa is therefore likely to have beneficial impacts on policies intended to increase bank lending in the continent.     

Financial innovation and bank behavior: Evidence from credit markets

This paper investigates whether, and through which channel, the active use of credit derivatives changes bank behavior in the credit market, and how this channel was affected by the crisis of 2007–2009. Our principal finding is that banks with larger gross positions in credit derivatives charge significantly lower corporate loan spreads, while banks׳ net positions are not consistently related to loan pricing. We argue that this is consistent with banks passing on risk management benefits to corporate borrowers but not with alternative channels through which credit derivative use may affect loan pricing. We also find that the magnitude of the risk management effect remained unchanged during the crisis period of 2007–2009. In addition, banks with larger gross positions in credit derivatives cut their lending by less than other banks during the crisis and have consistently lower loan charge-offs. In sum, our study is suggestive of significant risk management benefits from financial innovations that persist under adverse conditions – that is, when they matter most.     

An asset protection scheme for banks exposed to troubled loan portfolios

We examine a specific portfolio credit derivative, an Asset Protection Scheme (APS), and its applicability as a discretionary regulatory tool to reduce asymmetric information and help restore the capital base of troubled banks. The APS can be a fair-valued contract with an appropriate structure of incentives. We apply two alternative multivariate structural default risk models: the classical Gaussian Merton model and a model based on Normal Inverse Gaussian processes. Using a data set on annual farm level data from 1996 to 2009, we use the Danish agricultural sector as a case study and price an APS on an agricultural loan portfolio. We compute the economic capital for this loan portfolio with and without an APS. Moreover, we illustrate how model risk in the form of parameter uncertainty is reduced when an APS is attached to the loan portfolio.     

Agency costs in the banking industry: An examination of ownership behavior,leverage and dividend policies

This paper examines agency theory arguments in the banking industry by analyzing the effect of four variables that proxy for agency costs—earnings volatility, managers' portfolio diversification losses, bank size, and standard deviation of bank equity returns—on the three financial policy variables of managerial stock ownership, leverage, and dividend yield. It is one of the first studies that examines the determination of financial policy variables, in light of agency concerns, in the banking industry. The study examines the largest 104 U.S. banks during the period 1985–1989. Evidence suggests that bank size and a measure of the managers' portfolio diversification opportunity set affect the bank's level of managerial stock ownership, leverage and dividends.     

The Cartagena Declaration,the Baker Plan,and U.S. bank security returns: An empirical investigation

This paper examines the impact of the Cartagena Declaration by 11 Latin American countries and the Baker Plan for resolving the LDC debt problem on the security returns of major U.S. banks. An event parameter approach is employed to investigate two hypotheses, the new-information and the rational-pricing hypotheses, using daily stock market data. Sample banks are grouped into three portfolios depending on their LDC exposure. The results indicate that bank stock returns adjust quickly to new information. Also, there is rational investor reaction to observed events that were neither borrower- nor lender-induced. Those banks displaying greater exposure to LDC loans were affected in a direct and proportionately greater manner.     

Development of bank microcredit

We analyze the process by which banks enter the microcredit market while still engaging in traditional credit practices. For this we study a competitive credit market with adverse selection, where lenders are endowed with a screening technology capable of extracting an informative signal about a borrower’s quality if enough time is devoted to process the loan application. The time necessary for signal extraction depends on the borrower’s informational transparency. In the presence of opaque and transparent borrowers, depending on economy parameters, either a separating equilibrium with standard credit or microcredit prevails or a pooling equilibrium with either loan contract prevails.