旅游发展会影响居民消费吗?——来自中国的经验证据

文章构建了两个衡量旅游发展的代理指标,运用动态面板数据系统广义矩估计方法对旅游发展、经济增长与居民消费之间的关系进行了实证研究.研究结果显示,在中国整体层面上,旅游发展对居民消费具有显著正向影响关系,然而这种正向关系的影响效应较小；旅游发展滞后项并不显著,意味着旅游发展对居民消费促进作用的动态持续效应并不明显,导致在一定时间段内旅游发展对居民消费呈倒U型的影响关系.在区域层面上,东部地区旅游发展对居民消费具有显著正向影响关系；中部地区同样存在上述正向影响关系,但估计结果显示这种关系并不十分稳健；西部地区旅游发展对居民消费影响关系则不显著.针对上述问题,最后提出了相应的政策建议.     

旅游发展与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据

旅游发展与经济增长之间的关系研究一直是旅游经济学研究的核心内容.研究目的旨在经验考察TLGH在中国的成立性以及旅游发展对经济增长的影响效应.首先对国外相关研究文献与国内旅游发展特征事实进行了简单引述,并在此基础上,基于1999-2009年中国省际面板平衡数据,采用多种精细前沿性计量经济方法实证检验中国旅游发展对经济增长的影响过程.实证研究结果表明,中国旅游发展对经济增长具有显著正向影响效应,这一研究结论在经过4种敏感性分析之后依然稳健;未考虑内生性之前,中国旅游发展对经济增长的影响效应存在被低估现象,且最低影响效应大致处在0.0186～0.0354之间,当克服内生性之后,影响效应纠正为0.1519.     

旅游业会影响城镇化经济增长效应吗?——基于中国的实证检验

城镇化作为中国经济增长的重要推力,主要在释放需求和创造供给方面对中国经济产生显著的积极影响.然而,传统城镇化模式由于面临诸多约束,已经逐渐开始不符合现代经济增长方式转变的要求.与此同时,随着旅游业发展规模和方式的提升与转型,旅游业引导的城镇化建设模式,不仅可以有效挖掘城镇化建设潜力,并且也成为驱动中国经济增长的新型机制.因此,文章首次将旅游业纳入城镇化影响经济增长的研究框架,在理论分析的基础上,旨在实证检验旅游业发展是否对城镇化的经济增长效应具有调节作用.文章采用中国1999—2014年的省际面板平衡数据,通过引入旅游业与城镇化变量的乘积项,运用多种面板数据计量方法实证检验了旅游业发展对城镇化作用中国经济增长的调节效应.实证结果表明,不仅城镇化对经济增长具有显著正向影响,而且旅游业对城镇化的经济增长效应还存在显著的正向调节作用.     

数字技术驱动下旅游发展对经济增长的影响

在系统梳理数字技术、旅游发展与经济增长关系的基础上,以2013—2020年中国省级面板数据为样本,综合使用双向固定效应模型、面板分位数模型和调节效应模型进行实证检验。结果表明：旅游发展对经济增长的影响显著为正,验证了“旅游导向型经济增长假说”,并随着经济增长,旅游发展的正向经济增长效应逐渐显著;数字技术同样显著促进经济增长,并随着经济增长,数字技术的经济增长效应呈现先抑后扬的U形关系;从技术赋能视角来看,数字技术显著正向调节旅游发展的经济增长效应。此外,在不同旅游发展类型、不同地区,数字技术调节旅游发展对经济增长的影响存在显著异质性。     

旅游业与经济增长的非线性门槛效应——基于面板平滑转换回归模型的实证分析

旅游业会通过溢出效应对经济增长产生非线性影响,但尚缺乏相关经验证据.文章基于1999-2013年省级面板数据,以旅游业发展水平作为转换变量,采用面板平滑转换回归模型(PSTR),对旅游业与经济增长之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验.结果表明:旅游业对经济增长具有正向促进效应,旅游导向型经济增长假说在中国真实有效;旅游业与经济增长之间的关系存在非线性的旅游业门槛效应,旅游业发展水平与旅游业经济影响效应显著负相关.随着旅游业发展水平的提高,旅游业经济影响效应处于高机制,当旅游业发展跨越门槛值之后,旅游业经济影响效应处于低机制,旅游业发展会弱化其对经济增长正向影响的边际效应.因此,可通过优化旅游产业结构和强化经济增长其他决定因素对旅游业的外部性效应,来保持旅游业对经济增长的稳定持续贡献.     

旅游发展、空间溢出与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据

针对传统经验研究文献忽视空间相关性而导致的研究结论偏颇问题,文章采用经济学较为前沿的空间面板计量方法,利用中国30个省份1999~2009年面板数据,实证检验了旅游发展与经济增长之间的影响关系。研究结果表明:旅游发展呈现出明显的空间自相关性,具有显著空间集聚特征,大部分省份处于高-高和低-低类型区;旅游发展对经济增长具有显著正向促进作用,传统面板回归模型没有考虑空间相关性,高估了这一作用;旅游发展对经济增长存在显著空间溢出效应,并具有较强的稳健性。     

旅游发展能否减小城乡收入差距？——来自中国的经验证据

已有的研究文献并没有系统说明旅游发展与城乡收入差距之间是否存在显著关系。文章利用中国1999—2008年分省动态面板数据的系统广义矩估计（SYS—GMM）方法对此进行了实证检验。实证结果显示，中国旅游发展能够显著减小城乡收入差距。旅游发展减小城乡收入差距的影响机制主要表现为旅游发展对农村人均实际收入具有显著正向关系，而与城镇人均实际收入之间关系则不显著，研究还发现，旅游发展对全国人均收入水平存在显著正向关系。除此之外，财政分权在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中起负调节作用；城市化在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中起正调节作用；人均收入水平在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中的负调节作用基本可以忽略。     

中国旅游全要素生产率差异与收敛实证研究

本文利用非参数DEA—Malmquist指数方法测算了2001～2009年中国省际旅游全要素生产率,并进行生产率指数分解,对中国旅游全要素生产率时序变化和区域差异进行了分析,之后又利用经济增长收敛理论对中国旅游全要素生产率进行了盯和口收敛性检验。实证研究结果表明,中国旅游全要素生产率年均增长12．7％,其中,技术进步创新率为6．7％,技术效率增长5．6％,技术进步是中国旅游全要素生产率增长的主要源泉;中国旅游全要素生产率存在显著的时空差异性;中国旅游全要素生产率并不存在显著矿收敛和条件18收敛,但存在显著绝对卢收敛,说明中国各地区旅游全要素生产率差距正在逐步缩小,最终收敛于相同的稳态均衡水平,然而由于中国旅游业发展尚未达到成熟阶段,所以现阶段中国旅游全要素生产率增长尚未找到自身合适的条件收敛路径。     

要素结构变动、制度环境与旅游经济高质量发展

文章在对旅游经济发展质量的内涵构成、影响因素进行文献梳理的基础上,从行动资源与保障机制两个视角构建了旅游经济高质量发展的行动逻辑框架,并对要素结构变动、制度环境及二者交互作用促进旅游经济高质量发展的机理进行了分析。基于效率、结构和环境3个维度构建并测算了旅游经济发展质量指标,运用2003-2016年省际面板数据对理论分析进行了实证检验。结果表明:(1)要素结构变动、制度环境分别是旅游经济发展质量提升的行动资源、保障机制;(2)代表要素结构变动的资本劳动投入比对中、东部地区旅游经济发展质量的正向作用显著,对西部地区的作用不显著,而景区禀赋对中、西部地区的作用显著,对东部地区作用不显著;(3)制度环境对旅游经济发展质量总体上具有正向促进作用,对中、东部地区作用显著,对西部地区的作用尚不显著;(4)制度环境能够调节要素结构变动的作用方向及程度,二者交互形成集成动力对各地区旅游经济发展质量均产生正向作用。针对上述结论,文章从基于供给侧结构性改革推动要素结构升级、制度创新等视角提出了促进旅游经济高质量发展的相关建议。     

中国区域旅游经济空间关联结构及其效应研究 ——基于社会网络分析

文章基于2000-2015年中国省域旅游经济发展数据,结合修正的万有引力模型和社会网络分析方法(SNA),实证分析了中国省际间旅游经济发展的空间关联网络结构特征及其效应.结果表明:在样本考察期内,中国旅游经济发展空间网络结构特征明显,省际间关联关系数总体在波动中呈上升趋势;中国省域旅游经济关联网络等级度较高,整体网络优化空间大;北京、天津、上海、浙江、广东、江苏等经济发达地区在网络中的中心度更强,作用更大;经济发展水平高的地区旅游经济发展水平越高,接受来自其他地区的旅游经济溢出越多,马太效应明显;从整体网络指标回归看,网络密度的提高、网络等级度的降低、网络效率的降低能显著缩小省际间旅游经济发展的相对差异,有效提升整体旅游产业专业化水平;从个体关联网络指标回归结果看,个体点度中心度、中介中心度和接近中心度的提高能有效提升各省(市)旅游产业专业化水平.据此,文章提出了未来省域旅游产业发展的相关建议.     

Crime and punishment and sports development

This paper contributes to understandings of the use of sport as a medium in crime reduction programmes directed at young people. It does this through a case study of Easttown Summit1 The names of the location, programme and participants have all been changed to maintain client confidentiality , to show how and why this programme has had an impact on participants. The case study examines the relevance of a theoretical framework for understanding the mechanism of crime reduction though value directed personal development. However, this framework was developed from studies of programmes working with relatively high‐risk participants. Brantingham and Faust (1976) categorise this type of programme as ‘tertiary’. In contrast the Summit programme was secondary, working with lower risk participants. While clients of the Summit gained some benefits consistent with those likely to reduce offending, the research found that these benefits were largely an incidental by‐product of the achievement of broader sports development objectives. This may well be the case for similar secondary programmes, which have largely been developed in leisure departments, and has profound implications for programme evaluation.     

Foreign travel and tourism prices and demand

Sunday, Alexander A., “Foreign Travel and Tourism Prices and Demand,” Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. V, No. 2, April/June 1978, pp. 268–273. Using regression analysis and panel data this study estimates the parameter effect of prices on American demand for foreign travel and tourism. Findings suggest that higher air fares generate fewer tourists but greater expenditure per tourist visit.     

Hospitality and tourism student and alumni perspectives: promotion expectations,academic and experience adjustments,and career growth

Preparing qualified graduates for the tourism and hospitality industry who will stay and achieve promotional success is paramount. The objectives of this research project were to determine promotional advancement expectations and strategies to improve promotional opportunities. Two separate questionnaires, with both open and close-ended questions, were sent to upper classmen/women in hospitality and tourism programs and alumni of the same programs. In total, 717 (409 students and 308 alumni) completed the questionnaires. Chi-square tests were run to determine differences between student and alumni responses. To assist in analysis of open-ended responses, Atlas.ti was used. There was a statistically significant difference between students and alumni responses in regards to promotional expectations; students expected it to take a significantly longer time to receive a promotion to supervisor or manager than alumni. Overall, students and alumni indicated strategies such as more real-world-focused courses with hands-on experiences.     

Mega-events and their legacy: Image and tourism in Genoa,Turin and Milan

Hosting, or organising, a mega-event is a form of destination branding; it is a way to generate the leveraging process of the event itself and promote the image of a location. Besides, these events allow a destination to attract the attention of the public and the media, enhancing its awareness nationally and internationally. Mega-events promote greater flows of tourists and visitors, especially in the short term. Nevertheless they produce long-lasting effects, such as the attraction and stimulation of investments, urban regeneration, advanced facilities and equipment, in addition to the improvement of accommodation, services and infrastructures. Thanks to those investments and to the growth in tourist arrivals, the mega-events could have a positive impact on the local economy, also over years, but some of their most important outcomes deal with the so-called intangible legacy, or rather social, cultural and political effects, more difficult to identify and measure. They can modify local identity and image, supporting the repositioning of the hosting place at an international level. The above considerations are discussed in this study; most attention is paid to three Italian cities, involved in top events: Genoa, appointed as European Capital of Culture in 2004; Turin, that hosted the XX Olympic Winter Games in 2006; Milan, that is now organising the Universal Expo 2015.     

Supplier selection and partnerships: Effects upon restaurant operational and strategic benefits and performance

This study focused on identifying strategic criteria involved in selecting suppliers of restaurant products/services specific to casual dining, full service independent restaurants to obtain operational and strategic benefits for those managers operating in this highly competitive marketplace. A total of 765 responses were obtained from managers at independently owned restaurants throughout the U.S. Results revealed that ‘product’ and ‘financial/technical’ criteria had significant and positive effects upon operational benefits, while ‘product’ and ‘service’ had positive effects upon strategic benefits. When the sample was segmented into low and high supplier partnership groups, the positive effects of ‘financial/technical’ and ‘cost/price’ were significantly greater for the ‘high’ partnership group pertaining to operational benefits. ‘Product’ and ‘service’ and their effects upon strategic benefits were greatest for the high partnership group. Based on our findings, implications, limitations, and recommendations for future studies have been provided.     

河湖岸线分类体系及保护与利用对策研究

本文总结了分别考虑自然和社会功能的河湖岸线分类方法,分析了全国重点河湖岸线的开发利用现状及未来需求.基于河湖岸线的自然特征和社会功能双重属性,从可行性、可操作性和便于管理的角度提出适合于我国基本国情的河湖岸线分类标准,开出河湖岸线保护与利用的有效"药方".研究可为生态优先、绿色发展理念下的河湖岸线保护和高效利用及水域岸...     

Tourism and decolonisation: Locating research and self

This paper critically explores decolonial theory and its relevance for tourism studies. We suggest that while postcolonial and related critical theoretical perspectives furthered understandings of the consequences of colonisation, such critical theorising has not provided an epistemological perspective of tourism which legitimises the cosmologies of, and actively empowers, traditionally marginalised groupings. We review published tourism research which adopts critical and postcolonial perspectives, and argue that while these have been valuable in terms of exposing the existence and effects of dominant discourses and practices in tourism, their emancipatory objectives are limited because tourism knowledge is still predominantly colonial. Epistemological decolonisation is thus presented as a more radical project which can provide an ‘other’ way of thinking, being and knowing about tourism.