养老金入市须谨慎

近期，从官方呼吁“积极鼓励养老金等长期资金入市”，到社会各界对“养老金能不能入市、救市”的质问，再到对“养老金何时才能入市”的思索，以及完善市场制度的建议，“养老金入市”问题一时间再度升温。     

“堵”不如“疏”

中国资本市场的几次大的牛市，都与银行资金违规进入股市有关，而对违规资金的查处一旦开始，股市即应声大跌。“堵”不如“疏”，在建立安全的“防火墙”后，允许银行资金入市，是较好的选择。通过商业银行设立基金管理公司开展基金业务这种方式，有利于分流储蓄资金，并将其引导到证券市场，沟通货币市场与资本市场的联系，为资本市场发展提供长期、稳定的资金支持。     

声音

职业投资者、独立财经撰稿人皮海洲：就目前的A股市场来说，管理层的眼睛应该盯着的不是入市资金问题，而是“圈钱市”给A股市场带来的诸多损害投资者利益的实质性问题。如果解决了这些问题．住房公积金入市，甚至养老金入市，就都不成其为问题。     

我国社会保险基金的入市与政府监管

社会保险基金入市是社会保险基金运营投放模式的一种，其投放的基金不是全部，而仅是其中暂时闲置的资金。入市的目的是为了社保基金的保值增值，以期积累、结余资金以多元投资组合的形式，由专业基金管理公司投放到证券市场进行投资。     

养老金入市，呼唤中国版401K

“十二五”期间,有关方面将积极吸引长期资金入市,鼓励养老金和保险资金积极入市。有关人士指出,当前中国版401K计划推出条件已经成熟。     

养老金入市需要厘清几个问题

近期，有关养老金入市的话题再次受到各方关注。此话题发轫于2011年8月中国证监会研究中心提出要打造“中国版的401K”计划，引导中国养老基金等长期资金入市；2011年12月在中国社科院社会保障国际论坛上，有关基本养老保险基金（第一支柱）市场化投资的话题再次成为焦点；而与之相呼应，     

证券信用交易：资本市场一项基础性制度建设

2月6日，国务院办公厅发出《关于做好贯彻实施修订后的公司法和证券法有关工作的通知》，明确要求有关部门“适时推出证券信用交易制度的有关方案，为资金合规入市创造条件”。     

金融服务功能缺失与县域经济发展的相关性分析——对广安市国有商业银行县级支行的典型调查

国有商业银行县级支行各项功能特别是资源配置功能持续萎缩，一方面导致作为生产要素“粘合剂”的货币信贷资金所具有的“第一推动力”和“持续推动力”的功能弱化，国有商业银行县级支行日益“边缘化”；另一方面，民间借贷与资金体外循环使“金融脱媒”现象进一步凸显。最近，我们对广市安11家国有商业银行县级支行进行了调查，探讨如何进一步优化国有商业银行县级支行资源配置功能，使储蓄资金更有效地配置到实体经济中去。     

完善我国证券信用交易保证金体系的政策建议

国务院办公厅发布的《关于做好贯彻实施修订后的公司法和证券法有关工作的通知》提出“适时推出证券信用交易制度的有关方案，为资金合规入市创造条件”，引起了市场的广泛关注。     

养老金入市要避免成为泡沫制造者

据《中国证券报》2012年2月2日报道，中国证监会将“鼓励社保基金、企业年金、保险公司等机构投资者增加对资本市场的投资比重，积极推动全国养老保险基金、住房公积金等长期资金入市。”点评：养老金入市，不仅对股市具有重要影响，而且还关系到养老金的安全，因此，这一话题已成为目前股市最敏感、最热门的焦点之一。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…