The Wage Elasticity of Informal Care Supply: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

This article focuses on the wage elasticity of informal care supply to elderly parents employing an instrumental variable approach to account for the fact that the wage rate is likely to be correlated with omitted variables. Using the 1998 wave of the 1998 ), the wage elasticity of informal care supply is estimated to be negative and larger in magnitude than found previously. The lower bound of this elasticity is estimated to be ?1.8 for males and ?3.6 for females. Additional findings suggest that this wage elasticity differs by the type of care provided to elderly parents and that it is larger in magnitude among individuals with siblings and those with independently living parents. Overall the reductions in the informal care constitute about 18% of the labor supply response for men and about 56% of the labor supply response for women, which are not compensated by monetary transfers.     

Economic returns to schooling in urban China: OLS and the instrumental variables approach

This paper examines economic returns to schooling in urban China using ordinary least square (OLS) and instrumental variable (IV) methodologies. First, we find that OLS estimates of the returns to education are lower in China than in other transition economies, whereas IV estimates are higher in China. Second, we find that OLS, a method for estimating the returns to education without control for endogeneity bias, may underestimate the true rates of return for men. In addition, if we do not control for endogeneity bias and the sample selection bias, we may further underestimate the true rates of return for women. Finally, we find that OLS estimates of the returns to education for men are slightly higher than for women. The IV estimates for women are higher than those for men, and this difference increases after correcting for selectivity biases.     

The Intergenerational Consequences of Tobacco Policy: A Review of Policy's Influence on Maternal Smoking and Child Health

The response of pregnant women to tobacco policy is of particular interest due to these women being in a unique position to pass health capital to the next generation. By comparing estimates in the literature, we highlight that while pregnant women are responsive to taxes and taxes improve child health, their responsiveness has declined over time. We show that these trends reflect a compositional change; specifically, the least addicted smokers quit in the 1990s, leaving the pool of smoking mothers to be dominated by less price elastic smokers. Reviewing the literature on other tobacco policies, we show that a state‐level U.S. smoking ban has roughly three times the effect on pregnant women of a 10% increase in prices using elasticity estimates from more recent periods. Throughout this review, we identify areas for improvement in the literature and offer a number of ideas for future research projects.     

Evolution of Education Premiums in Cambodia: 1997–2007

This paper evaluates education premiums in Cambodia over the past decade using data from the 1997, 2003–2004 and 2007 Socio‐economic Surveys of Households. The Cambodian labor market has undergone a transformation over the past decade. In 1997, the earnings of workers employed for wages exhibited limited association with education and skills. The picture was dramatically different by 2003 and more so by 2007. The profitability of education had increased sharply, especially for women. There is evidence that the human capital model is now applicable to both men and women, resulting in a wider distribution of earnings. Instrumental variables estimates of the return to an additional year of schooling for male wage earners are found to be higher than the corresponding OLS estimates, but only in the private sector.     

Decomposing Gender Wage Differentials in Urban Ethiopia: Evidence from Linked Employer–Employee (LEE) Manufacturing Survey Data

Abstract

This study estimates the magnitude of gender wage differentials for a sample of workers from the Ethiopian manufacturing sector using the traditional Oaxaca–Blinder and an augmented Cotton–Neumark methodologies. In doing so, it separates part of the estimated log of gender wage differential explained by differences in human capital characteristics between men and women from that which is not explained by such differences. The latter is known in the literature as “treatment” component or “discrimination” due to differing pay structures for the two gender groups. Accordingly, it is found that in Ethiopia's manufacturing sector men on average get up to 30% more than women depending on the measure used. However, once we control for a number of individual and establishment level characteristics, the level of wage premium for men over women is close to 5% or around 12 Ethiopian cents per hour. Out of this, both decomposition procedures estimate that close to 60% of the premium is a result of discrimination (different treatment of men and women in the labour market). Using an augmented decomposition technique, it is found that out of the 60% “discrimination component” close to 13% is due to men's treatment advantage in the labour market and the remaining 47% is due to women's treatment disadvantage. Also it is found that firm level characteristics are important contributors to the total discrimination component. Without controlling for establishment level characteristics, the discrimination component would have been around 27% indicating that ignoring establishment characteristics in decomposition exercises would result into a biased estimation, and in this case it would have underestimated the level of discrimination by close to 50%.     

Technology and employment in the production of cotton cloth

This paper makes use of two well-known UN studies of the integrated spinning and weaving of cotton cloth in order to examine the relationship between technology and employment in developing countries. In particular the paper: (a) considers the choice of technology in the production of a given volume of cotton cloth in Western Europe, Latin America and Africa; (b) estimates and discusses the elasticity of capital-labour substitution in such production: and (c) examines some aspects of job creation, factor prices and economic efficiency. The variation in ‘optimal’ technology choice across wage areas is found to be rather narrow and to lie in the upper part of the capital-labour spectrum. The variation in profitability across technologies, however, is found to be much less than that of employment in all three areas. The limited range of ‘optimal’ technologies is partly explained by the elasticity of substitution which lies between 0.2 and 0.25 for Europe; 0.25 and 0.33 for Latin America; and 0.33 and 0.50 for Africa. A certain prodigality in the use of both men and machines in the developing regions is also part of the explanation of the relative similarity in optimal technology choice in the three wage areas considered. In the light of this prodigality and the low elasticity, consideration is given to the question of increasing developing country employment in a state enterprise and a private firm respectively. Not surprisingly, it is found that it would pay to exploit the scope for substitution in the state factory if more employment were sought, although the difference in total costs by ignoring such scope could be relatively small. It is further found that the magnitude of factor price changes required to induce a profit-maximizing businessman to provide the required volume of employment could be dauntingly large. It is noted that increased efficiency in the developing textile industry could result in increased unemployment.     

Do Skill Mismatches Create a Wage Penalty? Alternative Estimates for Korea*

In this paper, we estimate the wage penalty of skill mismatches among young Korean workers using propensity score matching (PSM) and ordinary least squares (OLS) methods. OLS estimates suggest that a moderate wage penalty results from skill mismatches: 3.8 percent for men and 5.6 percent for women. In contrast, PSM estimates suggest a weakly significant wage penalty for men and women only when kernel matching (KM) is used, but not when nearest neighbor matching(NNM) or radius matching (RM) techniques are used. These results contradict the findings of previous studies and suggest that there may not be a substantial wage penalty associated with skill mismatches.     

Public–private sector segmentation in the Pakistani labour market

This study investigates public–private sector wage differentials for male and female waged employees in Pakistan. This is done using latest nationally representative data from the Pakistan Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLM) 2005. We adopt three methodologies to obtain robust estimates of the wage differential and the results reveal that public sector workers enjoy large wage premia. The gross pro-public wage differential is much larger for women than for men. Our findings also show that while private and public sector workers’ differing characteristics ‘explain’ a larger proportion of the private–public wage gap for men, this is not the case for women.     

An aggregate import demand function for greece

This study estimates the aggregate import demand function for Greece using annual data for the period 1951–92. There are two methodological novelties in this paper. The authors find that the variables used in the aggregate import demand function are not stationary but are cointegrated. Thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables during the period under study. The price elasticity is found to be close to unity in the long run. The cross-price elasticity is also found to be close to unity. Import demand is found to be highly income elastic in the long run. This implies that with economic growth, ceteris paribus, the trade deficit for Greece is likely to get worse.     

Changing Elasticities of Labor Demand in U.S. Manufacturing

This paper provides a link between long-standing labor demand elasticity estimates in U.S. manufacturing and recent studies of wage patterns and labor demand shifts in response to technical change and international trade. We document asymmetric changes in labor demand elasticities including an absolute and relative increase in own-wage elasticity of demand for production workers. Separate estimates of substitution and scale responses imply that skill-biased technical change dominates increased product market competition as a source of the observed changes in labor demand elasticity.     

The Elasticity of Taxable Income: The Case of South Africa

A key tax policy parameter that has received much attention in the international literature, but about which there is substantial uncertainty, is the overall elasticity of taxable income. The size of this parameter is central to the formulation of tax and transfer policy, as well as for the study of the welfare implications of tax decisions. This paper uses a panel of individual tax returns for the period 2009–2013 and the phenomenon of “bracket creep” to construct instrumental variable estimates of the sensitivity of income to changes in tax rates. Estimates suggest that the overall elasticity of taxable income is approximately 0.3, while that of broad income is significantly lower. The overall response is primarily driven by the elastic response of taxable income for high‐income earners, who have an elasticity of closer to 0.4. Using the elasticity estimates within an optimal tax framework, it is determined that the optimal marginal tax rate for the top 10% of income earners is broadly in line with the current income tax schedule. However, results also suggest that there is little scope for raising marginal rates on high‐income earners further without inducing a negative revenue response.     

The Effect of Child Care Costs on the Employment and Welfare Recipiency of Single Mothers

This paper considers the effect of child care costs on two labor market outcomes for single mothers—whether to work for pay and whether to receive welfare. Hourly child care expenditures are estimated using data drawn from the 1992 and 1993 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). These expenditures are then used to predict the probability of welfare recipiency and employment. While the direction and significance of key variables are robust to changes in specification, the quantitative results are found to be sensitive to identification restrictions. All results show a substantial positive effect of child care costs on welfare recipiency, with the child care price elasticity of welfare recipiency varying from 1.0 to 1.9. Similarly, we find a significant negative effect of child care price on employment with elasticity estimates from -.3 to -1.1, showing that controlling for the welfare choice does not reduce the price elasticity of employment found in other studies.     

Regional patterns of employment changes of less-educated men in Japan: 1990–2007

We investigate regional patterns in employment of less-educated men in Japan from 1990 to 2007. The employment–population ratio of junior high school graduate men (9 years of compulsory schooling) decreased from 1990 to 2007. Wage growth across regions had a unique pattern during this period: it was high in the low-wage regions in the 1990s but high in the high-wage regions in the 2000s. We use these regional variations in wage growth to identify the labor supply elasticity of less-educated men. The estimated elasticity of the employment-to-population ratio of junior high school graduate men is around 0.15.     

Energy consumption of urban households in China

We estimate China urban household energy demand as part of a complete system of consumption demand so that it can be used in economy-wide models. This allows us to derive cross-price elasticities unlike studies which focus on one type of energy. We implement a two-stage approach and explicitly account for electricity, domestic fuels and transportation demand in the first stage and gasoline, coal, LPG and gas demand in the second stage. We find income inelastic demand for electricity and home energy, but the elasticity is higher than estimates in the rich countries. Demand for total transportation is income elastic. The price elasticity for electricity is estimated to be −0.5 and in the range of other estimates for China, and similar to long-run elasticities estimated for the U.S.     

The Effect of Nativity, Ethnicity and Race on the Earnings of Cape Verdean Americans

This paper estimates the net effects of nativity, ethnicity and race on the earnings of Cape Verdean Americans, a small, Afro-European group who speak a Portuguese-based Creole. While in their homeland, most Cape Verdeans identify as mestiço, but in America they are usually perceived as black. The data come from the 2000 US Census and the American Community Survey (2000–2007); Native Born Non-Hispanic Whites and African Americans serve as benchmarks. The results show that, controlling for pre-migration education, foreign birth is not a handicap; indeed, for women it is an advantage. Ethnicity too is never a handicap and occasionally an advantage. Race, on the other hand, penalizes males. Native born Cape Verdean men who identify as “Other”, “Black Other” or “Black” earn significantly less than NBNH Whites. On the other hand, regardless of racial identity, Native born Cape Verdean women earn at least as much as NBNH Whites. Finally, one subgroup of native born Cape Verdean men and women, those who identify racially as “Black”, earn slightly more than African Americans.     

Children as income-producing assets: the case of teen illegitimacy and government transfers

This paper develops a classical model of the teen fertility decision in the presence of public income transfers. The theoretical model predicts that welfare payments will encourage fertility, holding constant other economic opportunities, and that better economic opportunities will discourage fertility. Considering the possible simultaneity of illegitimacy rates and benefit levels, due to the collective choice process, the authors confirm the theoretical model's predictions with state-level data from 1980 through 1990. The authors find that including fixed effects in the regression to control for unobserved differences between states does not sufficiently control for endogeneity. After controlling for endogeneity, real welfare benefits are strongly and robustly related to teen illegitimacy. The point estimates of the elasticity with respect to changes in the illegitimacy rate are around +1.3 for White teens and +2.1 for Black teens. Real wages for women with a high school education or less are negatively related to teen illegitimacy for White teens, with an elasticity of around -0.4. Finally, male wages appear to have little effect on the illegitimacy rate for White teens but appear negatively correlated with the illegitimacy rate for Black teens in some model specifications.     

Novel indicators of the trade and welfare effects of agricultural distortions in OECD countries

Agricultural markets in OECD countries have long been highly distorted by government policies. Traditional weighted average aggregates of the price distortions involved, such as producer and consumer support estimates (PSEs and CSEs), can be poor indicators of the trade restrictiveness and economic welfare losses associated with them, especially if a country’s support estimates vary a lot across the product range. Certainly estimates of trade and welfare effects of price supports can be obtained from sectoral or economywide models using price elasticity estimates, but the results can be contentious if there is no consensus on what model specification and elasticity parameters to use. This paper shows that, if there is a willingness to accept simple assumptions about elasticities, it is possible to generate indicators of the welfare and trade restrictiveness of agricultural policies using no more than the price and quantity data needed to generate PSEs and CSEs. These new indexes thus provide an attractive supplement to the current policy monitoring regime developed by the OECD Secretariat.     

The Impact of Health on Labour Force Participation in South Africa

This paper estimates the effect of self‐assessed health (SAH) on labour force participation (LFP) in South Africa. This is motivated by a high disease burden and declining LFP in South Africa during the study period. Data is sourced from the four waves of the National Income Dynamics Study. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of self‐reporting excellent, very good or good health on LFP (relative to fair or poor health). The effect is more pronounced for men relative to women. The result indicates that health policy can be a tool for significantly improving LFP in South Africa.     

Forecasting Employment Growth in Indonesia

This note discusses the dangers of using the employment-output elasticity to forecast employment creation in Indonesia. It demonstrates the unreliability of employment-output elasticity estimates for Indonesia obtained using various methods, and argues, that, in addition to the estimation problems, the elasticity method has inherent weaknesses that should preclude its use to forecast employment growth in a dynamic world.     

Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health: Evidence from the Vietnam War Draft

This article contributes to the literature examining how stress during the early stages of life impacts later-life health using a novel proxy for stress: risk of military induction during the Vietnam War. The article estimates that an increase in induction risk in young adulthood is associated with higher rates of obesity, endocrine disease, and hypertension later in life. These findings do not appear to be cohort effects; these associations exist only for men who did not serve in the war, not for same-aged women. These results suggest stress experienced during early adulthood can have adverse health consequences later in life.