Options for African agriculture in an era of high food and energy prices

In a world of high food and energy prices, Africa has an imperative to do a better job feeding itself and ensuring that its people are food secure. At the same time, there is a new business opportunity to work with the private sector in developing the continent's potential to produce significantly more food, raw materials, and biofuels for regional and world markets. A challenge for African policy makers is to find the right balance between a food security and a business agenda, and to ensure that the business agenda engages with large numbers of small farms. Agricultural development requires many things, but the fundamentals for Africa are developing markets, increasing agricultural productivity, and managing volatility. This cannot happen at sufficient scale and speed without strong public sector leadership, enabling policies and investments, and well‐focused implementation strategies.     

The fourth industrial revolution,agricultural and rural innovation,and implications for public policy and investments: a case of India

The Indian Government and public–private partnerships are developing and disseminating a dizzying number of innovative, networked solutions, broadly known as the Digital India initiative, to increase the efficiency of safety nets and worker productivity and to improve life. Yet, challenges to turn the power of information and other technologies into a farmer‐friendly technological revolution for India's 156 million rural households are considerable, including: (1) reliable, up‐to‐date, location‐specific message content for a diverse agriculture to help stratified households shift to productive, knowledge‐intensive agriculture as a business—government, private sector, and civil society have big roles to play; (2) digital literacy, i.e., teaching farmers how to choose and use apps, even where the digital divide is absent; apps are, or soon to be, in regional languages; and (3) monitoring actual use and impacts on users’ lives by understanding the adoption and adaptation processes. These challenges call for bottom‐up, complementary investments in physical, human, and institutional capital, and farmer‐friendly e‐platforms, while forging ahead with many top‐down policy and institutional reforms currently underway, in which progress is real and constraints holding back greater success are better understood.     

Analyzing technology adoption using microstudies: limitations, challenges, and opportunities for improvement

Policy makers and interest groups have many questions about the use of improved technologies in developing country agriculture. These include the roles of policies, institutions, and infrastructure in the adoption of improved technologies and their impact on productivity and welfare. Most micro‐level adoption studies, however, cannot address these important policy issues. Drawing on an extensive review of the literature on the adoption of agricultural technologies, this article suggests alternative approaches for designing technology adoption studies to make them useful for policy makers. It explores the generic limitations of cross‐sectional adoption studies carried out in small numbers of communities and discusses some problems faced in conducting such studies. Recommendations include the use of sampling approaches that allow data from microstudies to be generalized to higher levels of aggregation, adherence to clearly defined terms that are standardized across studies, and careful examination of the assumptions that often underlie such studies.     

Is public investment complementary to private investment in Indian agriculture? Evidence from NARDL approach

The issue of complementarity between public farm investment and private farm investment in Indian agriculture is an unsettled empirical question in the literature, which has not been studied adequately. Few studies analyzing the trends of both types of investments have produced contradictory results. Thus, this study attempts to bridge that gap, by examining the hypothesis of crowding‐in/crowding‐out effect of public sector investment on private investment. Time series data for a period of 45 years from 1971 to 2015 has been used. Adopting a ‘nonlinear auto‐regressive distributive lag’ (NARDL) model the study confirms a strong crowding‐in effect of public investment on private investment in short run, but relatively a weak complementarity between the two over long‐run. Moreover, the public canal intensity as a major component of public investment has been observed to have much stronger effect on private investment than the public investment itself. It is also found that private investment is constrained by its own lagged values, institutional credit and terms of trade during both short‐run and long‐run. The policy suggestion of this study calls for an immediate arrest of declining trend of public investment.     

The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets

Short‐run responses of export and domestic shares of total agricultural output to changes in stocks of domestic savings (SAV), development assistance (ODA), private foreign commercial capital (PFX) and other variables is investigated. A profit function approach is used. Time series data for 19 sub‐Saharan African countries are pooled into three panels using similarities in changes in economic policy regime. Statistical evidence suggests that for the panel of countries that were undertaking liberalized economic reforms, the slope coefficients of some of the variables in the models have changed significantly between 1970–1980 and 1981–1993. For the 1981–1993 period, the impacts of ODA, PFX and SAV on export and domestic shares were different for this panel. The effect of increases in agricultural labor was different across the three panels. There is also evidence that productivity growth in the export agriculture sub‐sector is negative in all the groups. It is recommended that to halt the decline in export share of agricultural output in the group of countries that have undertaken substantial improvements in economic policy environment, efforts must be made to reduce the negative impact of domestic savings and agricultural labor, while at the same time working to reduce the bias of development assistance against food security.     

Seed Market Privatisation and Farmers’ Access to Crop Technologies: The Case of Hybrid Pearl Millet Adoption in India

In India, pearl millet is a typical subsistence crop. Nonetheless, use of hybrid seeds is widespread. The first pearl millet hybrids were introduced in 1965 by the public sector. Yet, starting in the late 1980s, market liberalisation led to an increasing role of private companies in seed development and distribution. Although several studies showed that proprietary pearl millet hybrids are more productive than public hybrids and open‐pollinated varieties, the impacts of privatisation on farmers’ technology access and overall innovation rates are not yet well understood. This paper analyses the dynamics of adoption using duration models and farm survey data collected in the state of Maharashtra. The results show that education, short distances to main information sources and good market infrastructure speeded up the adoption of pearl millet hybrids. Likewise, the increasing role of private seed companies had a positive and accelerating effect on technology diffusion in the small farm sector.     

Conditioning trends shaping the agricultural and rural landscape in Africa

African countries continue to face deepening food crises that have been accentuated by the global food, energy, and financial crises. This situation is part of a long‐term structural problem: decades of under‐investments in agricultural sector and poor policies of support for smallholder farmers who form the bulk of the farming population. The inability of these farmers to achieve a supply response when commodity prices were high and market access was less of a problem suggests that there are multiple sets of binding constraints that continue to limit the potential of agricultural growth to reduce food security and poverty on the continent. This article reviews some of the historical trends that have hampered the performance of the agriculture sector. In addition, it reviews the impacts of more positive trends that could stimulate agricultural growth in Africa that could change the African agricultural landscape. The article however warns that there are more recent global developments and some continental challenges that could prevent or slow agricultural growth. These include the global financial crisis, public sector investments, inequities in global agricultural development policies, rush for agricultural lands by foreign investors, domestic commercial financing markets, climate change, and emerging carbon markets. The article argues that while opportunities for accelerated growth exists for African agriculture, new sets of policy instruments will be needed to support smallholder farmers to access new agricultural technologies, finance, reduce impacts of climate change, and adopt sustainable land use practices that can allow them to benefit from emerging global carbon markets.     

Explaining agricultural productivity growth: an international perspective

This article presents multi-output, multi-input total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates in agriculture for 88 countries over the 1970–2001 period, estimated with both stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and the more commonly employed data envelopment analysis (DEA). We find results with SFA to be more plausible than with DEA, and use them to analyze trends across countries and the determinants of TFP growth in developing countries. The central finding is that policy and institutional variables, including public agricultural expenditure and proagricultural price policy reforms, are significant correlates of TFP growth. The most significant geographic correlate of TFP growth is distance to the nearest OECD country.     

The roles of public sector versus private sector in R&D and technology generation: the case of maize in Asia

This paper reports the findings of a study whose objectives were to compare and contrast the public and private sectors in Asia in terms of their (1) estimated level of investment in maize breeding research; (2) germplasm outputs; and (3) nature and extent of roles played in the maize seed industry. Since the 1960s, yield gains, rather than area expansion, have fuelled increases in maize production in Asia. Yield gains, in turn, have been due to the shift in maize cultivation from mostly open‐pollinated varieties (OPVs) to mostly hybrids. This transition also shifted the locus of modern maize breeding research from government research organisations to private national and multinational seed companies. In countries where both the public and private sectors participated in maize research, private sector research investment far exceeded that of the public sector. With more aggressive marketing programmes, the private sector captured 89% of the Asian maize seed market in the late 1990s. National public seed research agencies (including universities and cooperatives) developed and produced more maize OPVs than hybrids, mass‐produced and distributed seed cheaply, addressed location‐specific production problems, and provided agricultural extension services. The private seed companies developed, produced, sold and promoted their own proprietary hybrids. The reluctance of the private sector, however, to address the needs of marginal maize farmers should encourage the public sector to continue playing an active role in maize research and development (R&D), seed production and modern maize technology dissemination, especially with adequate support from appropriate government policies.     

Do input subsidy programs “crowd in” or “crowd out” commercial market development? Modeling fertilizer demand in a two‐channel marketing system

Many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers' agricultural productivity and food security. Prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers' commercial purchases. Using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in Zambia, we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous "crowding in" and "crowding out" effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales. Where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher (areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs), results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector, in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use. On the other hand, in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive, subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers. Empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers' fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries.     

Agricultural dynamics in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines

The introduction of new high-yielding varieties of cereals in the 1960s, known as the green revolution, dramatically changed the food supply in Asia, as well as in other countries. In the present paper we examine, over an extended period, the growth consequences for agriculture in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. Despite geographical proximity, similar climate and other shared characteristics, gains in productivity and income differed significantly among the countries. We quantify these differences and examine their determinants. We find that the new technology changed the returns to fertilisers, irrigated land and capital, all of which proved scarce to varying degrees. Complementing technology-related changes in factor use were investments, public and private, driven in part by policy. We find that factor accumulation played an important role in output growth and that accumulations from policy driven investments in human capital and public infrastructure were important sources of productivity gains. We conclude that policies that ease constraints on factor markets and promote public investment in people and infrastructure provide the best opportunities for agricultural growth.     

Agriculture and development: revisiting the policy narratives

This essay questions the way the findings from research on agriculture in poor countries tend to be summarized in policy narratives, and more specifically the role agricultural economics tends to play in this process. I conclude that there is a tendency to overstate the role agriculture plays in development and, as a result, some of the wrong battles are being fought in the policy advocacy arena, and inappropriate advice is being offered to policy makers. A more open and self‐critical approach to the place of agriculture in development would be more helpful for policy design.     

Ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low-income countries

This article develops a framework to examine the ex ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight low-income countries, including the benefits to producers and consumers from farm income stabilization and the potential magnitude of private sector profits from intellectual property rights (IPRs). The framework employs country-specific agroecological–drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research. Benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits, representing 40% of total benefits across the eight countries. Further, estimated annual benefits of US$178 million to the private sector suggest that significant incentives exist for participation in transgenic drought tolerance research.     

The effect of intellectual property rights on agricultural productivity

This article explores how the strengthening of intellectual property (IP) protection affects agricultural productivity in a panel of countries for the period 1961–2011. Using an index of IP protection for plant varieties, we study the effect of stronger intellectual property rights (IPRs) on cereal yields and two different types of cereals: Open‐pollinated (wheat) and hybrid (maize). We found that the strengthening of IPRs has a positive effect on productivity of cereals for high‐ and low‐income countries. However, we found no significant effect for middle‐income countries. In addition, we found that becoming a member of the Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights negatively affects cereal yields. Finally, we found evidence of the existence of nonlinearities in the effect of IPRs on agricultural yields, which confirms a threshold effect of IPRs that also varies for countries of different income level. The findings support the hypothesis that country specificities are important in determining the effect of IPRs and imply that there is no unique system that fits all.     

The changing landscape of Indian agriculture

In tracking the revolutionary changes in the Indian agricultural sector, it is quite clear that technology, institutions, and markets have had a very important role to play. Of course, the public sector played a pivotal and catalytic role when India ushered in the Green Revolution in late 1960s and early 1970s. The public sector imported new seeds, organized their distribution and demonstration, and provided price and market support, all “not‐for‐profit.” The cooperative sector, supported and facilitated by the government, again with the spirit of “not‐for‐profit,” helped bring in the White Revolution in milk through Operation Flood in 1970s and 1980s. This spirit is now being gradually replaced by “for‐profit” objective driven by the private sector, as is demonstrated in the revolutionary changes brought about by the introduction of Bacillus thuringiensis technology in the cotton sector during 2002–2007. On top of this, the corporate sector is also changing the complexion of the Indian agrisystem through notable changes in organized food processing and retailing. This change in spirit from “not‐for‐profit” to “for‐profit” in the growth process of Indian agriculture has significant implications for the concept of CISS, i.e., competitiveness, inclusiveness, sustainability, and scalability, which needs to be studied carefully and in detail. Accordingly, this article traces some of these dynamic changes and their likely implications.     

Market intermediaries,storage and policy reforms

Intermediaries play a crucial role in the functioning of agricultural and food markets in developing countries through linking production, imports and storage with consumption. We analyse how competition in the intermediary sector and alternative forms of intermediaries determine the incentives for storage and market outcomes more generally. We apply this framework to the Egyptian wheat sector as an illustrative case study, a country where food security is a priority, where both forms of intermediaries co-exist and undertake storage but where issues of reforms to the role of intermediaries have been raised. Through stochastic simulation, we analyse two changes in government policy: first, the effects of changing the policy instruments with both types of intermediaries undertaking storage; second, relating to market reforms where the private sector replaces the storage function of the parastatal. These issues have wider significance for addressing the interaction between food security and a wide range of policy reforms including de-regulation of parastatals in developing countries.     

Agriculture's 'multifunctionality' and the WTO

Are the agricultural policy reforms embodied in the Uruguay Round consistent with meeting domestic policy objectives such as providing adequate food security, environmental protection and viability of rural areas? This article examines the claim that agriculture deserves more price support and import protection than other sectors because of the non‐marketed externalities and public goods it produces jointly with marketable food and fibre (agriculture’s so‐called ‘multifunctionality’). Do these unrewarded positive externalities exceed the negative externalities from farming by more than the net positive externalities produced by other sectors? To what extent are those farmer‐produced spillovers under‐supplied, and what are the most efficient ways to boost their production to the socially optimal levels? The article concludes that there is little trade‐off required to meet domestic policy objectives on the one hand and agricultural protection reform objectives as embodied in WTO rules on the other.     

The impact of OECD biofuels policies on developing countries

OECD countries’ biofuels policies, derived from energy and environmental legislation and activated by high oil prices, were the primary cause of not only the sudden spike in grain and oilseed prices in 2007–2008 but also of the ensuing price volatility. Even though developing countries have a comparative advantage in biofuels production, they were shut out of rich countries’ biofuel markets by trade discriminating biofuels policies. Developing countries would not have been able to take full advantage of the price spike in the short run anyway given the low supply elasticities and the long time required for biofuel production to come online, unlike for corn‐ethanol. The controversy over the right price of food is misplaced and policy makers should instead focus on improving biofuels policies, which like their counterpart agricultural policies in previous decades, have damaged the welfare of developing countries.     

The adoption of intensive monocrop horticulture in southern Cameroon

Results from a 1997 survey of 208 households in the humid forest zone of southern Cameroon indicate that African policy makers seeking to intensify agricultural production should focus attention on the horticultural sub‐sector. The survey, which gathered information on horticultural production practices, found that the average expenditure on agro‐chemical inputs by horticultural producers using monocrop production systems was 190US$/ha, which greatly exceeds the FAO reported national average expenditure of 6.50 US$/ha. A logit model of monocrop adoption indicated that the size of land holding per household had a negative effect on adoption, congruent with population‐driven technical change and that increases in unit transportation costs significantly decreased the probability of adoption. These findings suggest that policy makers should target horticultural intensification in areas of higher population density and promote investment in rural roads. The age of the household head had a significant negative and elastic effect on adoption, which in combination with an increase in the cohort of younger farmers in the rural population induced by macro‐economic events contributed to the spread of intensified horticulture. In the study area, roughly two‐thirds of rural households also produce cocoa and the quantity of cocoa produced was positively associated with adoption of intensive horticultural systems suggesting that export crop promotion indirectly facilitated diversification of agriculture. Women's participation in intensive monocrop production was limited and efforts to promote their greater involvement are recommended.     

AGRICULTURAL REFORMS IN CHILE AND NEW ZEALAND: A REVIEW*

Chile and New Zealand are both small countries for which agricultural exports are important: both undertook comprehensive economic reforms during the 1970s and 1980s respectively. Comparison of the experiences shows that macroeconomic policy, above all the resulting movements in the real exchange rate and in interest rates, has a critical impact on agriculture. In both cases, rolling back the state has encouraged private responses. In Chile the challenges ahead lie in continuing productivity improvements, and in raising the welfare of smallholders in marginal areas. Six years after the initiation of reforms, New Zealand agriculture shows a healthy recovery. Once committed to economy-wide reforms – stabilisation, adjustment, and trade liberalisation – and companion reforms of institutions, how do governments best proceed? With what reforms and in what mix, sequence, strength, and speed? For agriculture, specifically, this paper takes a close look at which reforms, or aspects of their implementation, can accelerate or slow down private investment and aggregate supply response.