Unsmoothing Real Estate Returns: A Regime‐Switching Approach

We propose newly developed unsmoothing techniques for appraisal‐based real estate returns based on a regime‐switching threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. We show that when true returns follow a TAR process, conventional linear autoregressive techniques are misspecified and underestimate true variance. Two exogenous variables, equity returns and gross domestic product growth, outperform other variables as regime indicators and appear to capture risks of downturns in real estate. We extend the model to the smoothing equation, allowing for switching behavior by appraisers, using two new techniques: the TAR‐AR and TAR‐TAR approaches. The “co‐switching” specification opens up a new frontier of empirical research. We estimate the TAR‐TAR using FT returns as the regime indicator, and we find results that outperform conventional smoothing models and have plausible economic explanations.     

Commercial Real Estate Rental Index: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Estimation

Using the actual quarterly rental income generated in the years between 2001 and 2010 by over 9,000 NCREIF commercial properties, we construct a commercial real estate rental index and estimate the time series properties (e.g., mean‐reversion speed and volatility) of market‐wide rental growth using a dynamic panel data model. The dynamic panel data model has several advantages over a standard hedonic regression. In addition, we incorporate age effects into our panel data model, and by doing so we correct the age bias in the repeated sales method and in the simple average method. Our estimates show that rental growth is cyclical but it generally lags behind broader economic growth. Surprisingly, the long‐term average rental growth is significantly lower than what is usually perceived, and the volatility of rental growth can be significantly under estimated when the conventional methods are adopted. We also find significant cross‐property type and cross‐region variations in the rental adjustment process. In contrast to the existing literature, we find a strong negative relation between rental growth and cap rate, and that this relation is significantly stronger than that between NOI growth and cap rate. Finally, we establish an empirical relation between price return and rental growth in the commercial real estate market.     

Security Deposits, Adverse Selection and Office Leases

Our focus in this article is on the extent to which security deposits allow landlords to contract on the intensity with which tenants utilize office space. Much existing discussion recognizes that landlords expect some tenants to be more opportunistic than others, but that landlords often cannot predict a tenant's future behavior. As a consequence, landlords will charge all tenants, both low-utilization and high-utilization ones, a rental externality premium. This rental externality premium gives low-utilization tenants (or tenants with better credit quality than the market perceives) a strong incentive to sort themselves out. Our findings suggest that office rental contracts with large up-front security deposits are one way in which different tenant types can sort themselves out. Such contracts reduce landlord uncertainty and imply rental discounts in excess of the foregone interest on the deposit monies.     

Limitations to interorganizational knowledge acquisition: the paradox of corporate venture capital

By highlighting conditions under which viable interorganizational relationships do not materialize, we explore the limitations of interorganizational knowledge acquisition. In the empirical context of corporate venture capital (CVC), we analyze a sample of 1,646 start‐up‐stage ventures that received funding during the 1990s. Under a regime of weak intellectual property protection (IPP), an entrepreneur‐CVC investment relationship is less likely to form when the entrepreneurial invention targets the same industry as corporate products. In contrast, under a strong IPP regime, industry overlap is associated with an increase in the likelihood of an investment relationship. Our findings suggest that many relationships do not form because the corporation will not invest unless the entrepreneur discloses his or her invention, and the entrepreneur may be wary of doing so, fearing imitation. To the extent that a CVC has greater capability and inclination to target same‐industry ventures, such industry overlap would exacerbate imitation concerns under a weak IPP regime, yet facilitate an investment relationship under a strong IPP regime. Beyond CVC, this insight may explain patterns of other interorganizational relationships, including research and development alliances and technology licensing between start‐ups and incumbents. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Dynamics of Homeownership: Eliminating the Gap Between African American and White Households

This article uses a sample of young renters from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a continuous‐time econometric model to explore not only the initial tenure transition to first‐time homeownership, but also subsequent possible tenure transitions to a second owned home, back to rental tenure and, indirectly, to a second owned home from rental tenure. Once estimated, the predicted probabilities of these transitions are used to calculate the probability of homeownership at various times for households in the sample. These estimates are done separately for African Americans and whites for two different 11‐year time intervals, 1987–1997 and 1993–2003. A primary result is that if African American education, income, net wealth and savings behavior could be brought in line with that of white households the majority of the racial gap in homeownership could be eliminated in either time period.     

Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents

This research confirms the existence of a strong vacancy rental adjustment mechanism in the market for office space, such as has been found in housing markets. Using national time-series data, we find that real office rents drop approximately 2% annually, for every percentage point of "excess vacancy" in the market. We also find that the definition of "excess vacancy" has been trending upward over time. Using a recent vacancy forecast suggests that office income streams seem likely to decline in both real and nominal dollars over the next few years.     

Profitability of Office Rental Market in Seoul: An Application of Simultaneous Structural Equations

This article is concerned with the estimation of excess rates of return on the office rental market in Seoul using a simultaneous structural equation model. The office rental market in Seoul is spatially divided into CBD and non-CBD, and the model has three behavior equations of Chonsei price, monthly rent and key deposit, with two identity equations of conversion rate and excess rate of return. This article reveals that it would be rational for the owners to ask tenants for a higher deposit with a lower monthly rent under increasing interest rates because the interest rate has a positive effect on the Chonsei deposit and the key deposit, but a negative effect on the monthly rent. Although high nominal interest rate and low economic growth reduce the excess rate of return on both submarkets, the non-CBD office rental market would be more profitable than the CBD market despite lower levels of the monthly rent and key deposit.     

Rent Controls in Ontario: Roofs or Ceilings?

This paper describes the rent control program in Ontario and discusses the consequences of these controls. It indicates that rent controls caused both a small nominal decline and a large real decline in the per unit value of rental apartments, substantially reduced new rental housing starts, generated a rental housing shortage, created a dual market with significant rent differences between the controlled and uncontrolled (new construction) sectors, and imposed large costs on government in the form of foregone tax revenues and increased rental housing subsidies. The paper also indicates some of the political responses to the developing economic effects, such as the imposition of additional land use controls and increased government spending programs to stimulate new rental construction.     

A Self‐Tuning Model for Smart Manufacturing SMEs: Effects on Digital Innovation

With the changing way people live, communicate, and work, enterprises are striving to shift their existing business model into a “self‐tuning” one. Enterprises are becoming more agile, adaptive, and ambidextrous in order to boost innovation in the current digital transformation era. Nowadays, “digital innovation” is closely associated with Industry 4.0 enablers and smart enterprises. Prior research has shown that while multinational enterprises—across many sectors—have already embraced the aforementioned advancements, their adoption by small and‐medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) has so far taken place mainly in the manufacturing sector. Thus, based on a sample of 280 self‐tuned smart manufacturing SMEs and having utilized the structural equation modeling (SEM), this study was aimed to investigate how digital innovation is influenced by the three pillars of self‐tuning models—agility, adaptation, and ambidexterity. Our paper has focussed on the digital systems in which SMEs, spurred by networking and open innovation solutions, operate and innovate in response to external triggers, displaying a balance between exploration and exploitation, and a strong agile capacity.     

Retail Leasing: The Determinants of Shopping Center Rents

The determinants of lease rentals are of fundamental importance to real estate researchers and practitioners. Retail leases are unique in that they typically have two rental components: a base rent and an "overage" rent equal to a percentage of the tenant's gross sales above some threshold level. In this paper, we develop and test a simple cash flow model of retail lease valuation that predicts that base rents are lower with higher percentage rent rates and are higher with greater threshold levels of sales. Using a sample of shopping center leases, regression analysis indicates that these tradeoffs are observed in the market.     

Affiliation bias in the online market for rental accommodation

We find evidence of taste‐based discrimination against rival affiliations in the online market for rental accommodation. Airbnb hosts in college towns increase their listing prices more than hotels on home football games against rival teams. By setting listing prices too high as a result of their affiliation bias against rival fans, hosts experience a 30% reduction in rental income. The overestimation of demand, the cost (inconvenience) of temporary relocation, and the likelihood of incurring damage cannot explain the inverse relation between listing price increases, and rental incomes that is limited to games against rival teams. Instead, greater financial constraints are associated with smaller listing price increases, and higher rental incomes on rival games, suggesting that taste‐based discrimination is a luxury.     

Owner Tenancy as Credible Commitment under Uncertainty

How do landlords provide credible signals to tenants that they will maintainthe building when the needed upkeep over the contract period is uncertain at the time that rental decisions are made? In this paper, we develop a model of credible commitment under uncertainty wherein owner tenancy serves as the commitment signal to the market. In comparing completely tenant-occupied (absentee landlord) to partially owner-occupied buildings, the model predicts that in the latter case, the equilibrium rent is higher. We test this prediction using rental data for a sample of office buildings, some of which are completely tenant-occupied while others are partially owner-occupied. The results indicate that, as predicted by the model, rents are significantly higher when landlords can signal a commitment to high-performance standards.     

Evidence and Implications of Regime Shifts: Time‐Varying Effects of the United States and Japanese Economies on House Prices in Hawaii

We show that local house prices may be driven almost entirely by the demands of one identifiable group for several years and then by demands of another group at other times. We present evidence that house prices in Hawaii were subject to such regime shifts. Prices responded to demands associated with U.S. incomes and wealth for most years from 1975 through 2008. For about a decade starting in the middle of the 1980s, after the Japanese yen appreciated dramatically and Japanese housing and stock market wealth soared, however, house prices in Hawaii responded to Japanese incomes and wealth. Estimated models with these regime shifts outperformed conventional, constant‐coefficient models. The regime‐shifting model helps explain why, when and by how much the volatility and the elasticities of house prices in Hawaii with respect to the incomes and wealth of the United States and Japan varied over time.     

Market Conditions and Housing Choices: A Comparison of Homeownership Across Three Decades

This article uses information on out‐of‐pocket housing cost and house price appreciation along with the geo‐coded version of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to consider the differences in the impact of these and other variables on the tenure choices of sample households across three time periods, the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. Specifically, an extended continuous time probability model is used to examine households' transitions from renting to owning and subsequent possible transitions either back to rental tenure or to another owned home during our three observation periods. Coefficient estimates show that financial variables such as house price appreciation and out‐of‐pocket housing cost play an important role in determining all the transitions. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the interesting result that the cumulative likelihoods of homeownership derived from the model are consistently lower than the probabilities of an initial transition to homeownership from rental tenure during the observation period. Finally, the magnitude and timing of the impact on homeownership of a policy experiment that eliminates the mortgage interest deduction are shown to differ substantially across the three decades.     

The Effect of Lead Paint Abatement Laws on Rental Property Values

Lead paint is a source of childhood lead poisoning, a vicious disease with high costs to both the victims and society. Treatment of the disease requires placing the victim in a lead-free environment. Laws have been enacted by many localities, which would require removal of lead from residential property. However, property owners have resisted the enforcement of these laws with threats of abandonment. Theory suggests that abandonment will occur only if the value of the rental property after removal of the paint is less than the cost of removal. This paper shows that these costs have already been discounted into property values. Data from Baltimore, Maryland indicates that the market has placed a value of approximately $15,250 per structure or $3,813 per rental unit on expected abatement costs. This value in most cases is less than the value of the rental property. Thus abandonment should occur infrequently.     

Sample selection bias and Heckman models in strategic management research

Research summary: The use of Heckman models by strategy scholars to resolve sample selection bias has increased by more than 700 percent over the last decade, yet significant inconsistencies exist in how they have applied and interpreted these models. In view of these differences, we explore the drivers of sample selection bias and review how Heckman models alleviate it. We demonstrate three important findings for scholars seeking to use Heckman models: First, the independent variable of interest must be a significant predictor in the first stage of a model for sample selection bias to exist. Second, the significance of lambda alone does not indicate sample selection bias. Finally, Heckman models account for sample‐induced endogeneity, but are not effective when other sources of endogeneity are present. Managerial summary: When nonrandom samples are used to test statistical relationships, sample selection bias can lead researchers to flawed conclusions that can, in turn, negatively impact managerial decision‐making. We examine the use of Heckman models, which were designed to resolve sample selection bias, in strategic management research and highlight conditions when sample selection bias is present as well as when it is not. We also distinguish sample selection bias, a form of omitted variable (OV) bias, from more traditional OV bias, emphasizing that it is possible for models to have sample selection bias, traditional OV bias, or both. Accurately identifying the type(s) of OV bias present is essential to effectively correcting it. We close with several recommendations to improve practice surrounding the use of Heckman models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Housing Price Forecastability: A Factor Analysis

We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS) and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future movements in housing prices. We find that (S)PLS models systematically dominate PCA models. (S)PLS models also generate significant out‐of‐sample predictive power over and above the predictive power contained by the price–rent ratio, autoregressive benchmarks and regression models based on small datasets.     

Shared ownership and pricing in a network switch

We observe that many wholesale switches in automated teller machine (ATM) networks are jointly owned by their members and that this tends to occur more frequently when the wholesale industry is highly concentrated. We also observe that network switches are ‘natural monopolies’, their costs being largely fixed and their demand exhibiting substantial network externalities. Motivated by these observations, we model the competition for members between wholesale switches and the role joint ownership can play in attracting members. The model analyzes both the adoption decision (which network a bank chooses to join) and the subsequent pricing of switch and ATM services. We compare competition between two solely owned switches with competition between one solely owned and one jointly owned switch. Our analysis shows that a more concentrated structure results under the latter and that retail prices are higher. This calls into question the leniency of antitrust policy toward jointly owned structures.     

"创造性毁灭"和网络经济条件下的自主科技创新

网络产业的自主技术创新对国民经济的整体发展具有重大影响.网络产业的技术创新呈现出与一般产业不同的特点.本文通过对网络经济条件下技术创新所面临的基本矛盾和基本问题的分析,指出网络经济下技术进步的主要特点以及技术创新过程中可能出现的主要市场失灵问题.本文特别分析了网络经济条件下技术选择中的超额动量和超额惯量问题,并结合从2G向3G移动通信的过渡问题,提出相应的政策选择.     

Process Technology Sourcing and the Innovation Context

We employ transaction cost economics (TCE) and inspiration from technology innovation management to advance a model of technology sourcing governance and performance in the international environment. We hypothesize that the innovation context moderates the relationship between process technology sourcing and performance. The innovation context is defined as external factors reflected in the appropriability regime and whether the industry is characterized by a dominant design. Moreover, we suggest that, contingent upon the innovation context, subsidiaries prefer internal development to secure a positional advantage. A multi‐industry sample of 105 subsidiaries is used to test the hypotheses. We find support for a contextual model linking process technology sourcing strategy to subsidiary performance. Motivated by TCE, we find tentative evidence for a preference order of technology sourcing beginning with internal development and ending with market sourcing, particularly when the appropriability regime is weak.