A BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE MODEL OF EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS WITHIN A STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT FRAMEWORK

The paper combines behavioural finance to a stock‐flow consistent model of a two‐country economy in the portfolio tradition, with imperfect asset substitutability. ‘Conventionalists’ and ‘chartists’ set their expectations of changes in exchange rates based on some assessed fundamental value and past trends, respectively. We find that exchange rate expectations have a significant effect on exchange rate movements and trade account balances during the traverse and in steady states. A flexible exchange rate regime will continue to provide stabilizing properties, as long as the proportion of chartist actors relative to other agents is not overly large.     

WORLD IMBALANCES AND MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS: A THREE‐COUNTRY STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT MODEL WITH FIXED OR FLEXIBLE PRICES

World macroeconomic adjustments are analysed with a three‐country Stock‐Flow Consistent (SFC) models. Three SFC models are considered, the first one with a fixed dollar–yuan parity including a version with Chinese foreign reserves' diversification, the second with a flexible dollar–yuan parity which can be freely floating or following a more managed float, the third one being a generalization of the two others with flexible prices instead of constant prices. The fixity of the dollar–yuan parity limits the adjustments facing shocks and world imbalances while a more flexible dollar–yuan exchange rate appears as a powerful adjustment mechanism to reduce these imbalances.     

Does US quantitative easing affect exchange rate pass‐through in China?

In this paper, we show theoretically and empirically that the US quantitative easing (QE ) policy results in lower exchange rate pass‐through into the destination prices of Chinese exporters. In addition, the more the exchange rate in the export destination appreciates than the Chinese yuan, the stronger this effect becomes. Our model combines various marginal effects of QE policy on the destinations of Chinese exporters and variable markups of export firms due to strategic complementarities. The model predicts that the impact of US QE policy on the pass‐through of Chinese exporters depends on its spillover on the exchange rate between China and the export destination of different firms. We provide strong support for the model predictions using Chinese firm‐product‐level data with information on export destinations. The baseline result and the heterogeneity we find in the response of exchange rate pass‐through of Chinese exporters to US QE policy remain robust to alternative measures of samples and controls.     

Corporate Diversification and Firm Value: Evidence from Post‐1997 Data*

In 1997, SFAS 131 established a new segment‐reporting standard for US public companies. Using measures of diversification based on the diversity in segment‐industry characteristics and controlling for endogeneity of the diversification decision, we document a diversification premium in our post‐1997 period. We find significant positive effects of cash flow diversity, leverage diversity and profitability diversity on excess value, consistent with the efficient internal capital market hypothesis. We also find that the size of the diversification premium in the post‐1997 data is negatively correlated with the degree of diversification and positively correlated with firm size. In contrast, we find that the pre‐1998 data typically generates a diversification discount, but the effect is statistically less significant when endogeneity is controlled for. Thus, the diversification discount documented in earlier studies can be an artifact of the pre‐1998 data or a failure to control for endogeneity.     

The Economics of Exchange‐Rate Regimes: A Review Essay

The exchange‐rate regime issue has taken centre‐stage in discussions of international economic policy. Much of the profession appears to have been converted to ‘the hypothesis of the vanishing middle regime’; for countries well‐integrated into world capital markets, there is little, if any, middle ground between floating exchange rates and monetary unification. This paper considers the exchange‐rate‐regime issue in the context of recent books on the subject by W. Max Corden and Morris Goldstein. Both authors prescribe managed floating exchange rates, supplemented with inflation targeting, for emerging‐market economies. Under managed floating, and with a credible monetary policy, the public finances in order, and strengthened debt management and prudential regulation, the exchange rate is free to act as a market gauge for assessing policies and as a mode of conflict resolution. Both authors also argue, however, that no exchange‐rate regime is a Holy Grail. Ultimately, a credible exchange‐rate regime depends upon the trust evoked by governments. There is no exchange‐rate regime, whether of the managed‐floating or hard‐fix variety, that can eradicate a history of failed stabilisation attempts.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra‐Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

This paper examines the impact of intra‐Asia exchange rate volatility on intra‐Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the subregion of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller subgroup excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.     

EXCHANGE RATE BANDS OF INACTION AND PLAY‐HYSTERESIS IN GERMAN EXPORTS—SECTORAL EVIDENCE FOR SOME OECD DESTINATIONS

A non‐linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call ‘play’ area—analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path‐dependent play‐hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. Looking at some of the main export partners of Germany outside the euro area and some of the most important tradeable sectors we find significant hysteretic effects for a part of the German exports.     

Aid for trade and export diversification in recipient‐countries

The Aid‐for‐Trade (AfT) Initiative was launched by the Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) with a view to helping developing countries and the least‐developed countries (LDCs) expand their trade. The current paper contributes to the literature on AfT effectiveness by examining how AfT affects recipient‐countries' export product diversification. The analysis has been carried out on a sample of 104 AfT recipient‐countries over the period 2002–2015 and uses the two‐step system generalised methods of moments (GMM) approach. Results show that AfT flows are conducive to export product diversification in recipient‐countries. In addition, the analysis has shown a positive impact of the cumulative AfT flows on the export product diversification path of these countries. These results apply as well to the subsamples of LDCs and other developing countries. One policy implication of these results is that a scale‐up of AfT would help recipient‐countries to diversify their export products baskets and hence facilitate their greater integration into the global trading system.     

An asymmetric analysis of the J‐curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US

This paper follows a non‐linear ARDL error‐correction approach to examine the presence of the J‐curve in the commodity‐level trade between the United States and China. The analysis disaggregates the US–China trade flows by commodities and separately examines the trade balance responses of 97 commodities to the changes in the real yuan–US$ exchange rates. The analysis at the commodity level alleviates potential aggregation bias that is present in earlier studies offering little evidence for long‐run asymmetric effects of exchange rate on the China–US trade balance. We find strong support for short‐run asymmetric effects in the case of two‐third of the commodities, whereas significant long‐run asymmetric effects are present in the case of one‐third of the commodities including those commodities which command large shares in the China–US trade.     

Optimal Currency Composition for China's Foreign Reserves: A Copula Approach

This paper investigates the optimal currency composition for a country's foreign reserves. In the context of China, we examine the asymmetric, fat‐tail and complex dependence structure in distributions of currency returns. A skewed, fat‐tailed and pair‐copula construction is then built to capture features of higher moments. In a D‐vine copula approach, we show that under the disappointment aversion effect, the central bank in our model can achieve sizeable gains in expected economic value from switching from the mean‐variance to copula modelling. We find that this approach will lead to an optimal currency composition that allows China to have more space for international currency diversification while maintaining the leading position of the US dollar in the currency shares of China's reserves.     

MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT UNDER AN EXTERNAL AND FISCAL CONSTRAINT: A FIX‐PRICE/FLEX‐PRICE APPROACH

This paper presents a dual economy model of the fix‐price/flex‐price kind that explicitly allows for the existence of a government budget constraint in a fully open economy. Both the external and fiscal closures resemble very much the contemporary experience of several Latin American countries, where fiscal discipline and fix exchange rate systems have been the norm. Thus, within the public sector, it is assumed that public investment is the adjustment variable, while foreign reserves variation adjusts the external balance. Short‐run impacts of policy‐induced variables and changes in exogenous external financing are analysed. Relevant trade‐offs, especially between output and inflation, follow from an analysis in which the time perspective is rather short. However, in the medium term, some balancing forces in the economy can moderate the trade‐offs. We show among a wide range of events and policy options that this is the case of debt relief or a concerted lending strategy.     

Do firms with more alliance experience outperform others with less? A three‐level sigmoid model and the moderating effects of diversification

Whether firms with more alliance experience perform better than those with less and whether the alliance strategy interacts with diversification strategy to shape firm performance are two critical but underexplored questions. To address these queries, this study develops a three‐level sigmoid framework built upon a marginal analysis that contrasts alliance benefits and alliance costs, and considers the moderation of diversification that often closely works with the alliance in shaping firm performance. Empirical results obtained from firms in two alliance‐populated industries support first that the alliance experience‐performance relationship is S‐shaped in that the linkage is negative to alliance novices, positive to alliance experts, and negative again to alliance overusers; and second, that the shape of this sigmoid curve varies systematically between high‐ and low‐diversified firms. Copyright © 2015 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Redistribution in a Neo‐Kaleckian Two‐country Model

We investigate the interaction between demand‐driven growth and income distribution in open economies, by combining expenditure‐switching and demand spillover effects in a neo‐Kaleckian two country model. First, we specify elasticities of wage share and real exchange rate to the money wage relative to labor productivity, in order to precisely describe the distributive pass‐through from money wages to the labor share and the real exchange rate. Second, we analyze the demand effects of an increase in the money wage for given labor productivity (a redistribution towards labor) in both Home and Foreign country, as well as globally. We derive closed form results for two identical countries. These results indicate that redistribution towards labor at Home: (i) always increases growth globally if Home is wage‐led, but can lead to lower growth at Home relative to Foreign; and (ii) will always imply lower growth at Home relative to Foreign if Home is profit‐led, but can still be growth‐enhancing at Home. Thus, to the extent that countries are concerned with their relative economic performance, a fallacy of composition can emerge. Numerical simulations suggest that these fallacies could indeed occur. As a consequence, ‘returns to coordination’ over international labor policies might be substantial.     

AS‐AD REVISITED: OVERSHOOTING ADJUSTMENT DYNAMICS UNDER NAÏVE EXPECTATIONS

We analyse the adjustment dynamics from a short‐term to a medium‐term equilibrium in a standard AS‐AD model à la Blanchard (2006, Macroeconomics, 4th edn, Prentice‐Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ) for an open economy with fixed and flexible exchange rates. An explicit analysis suggests the local stability of the medium‐term equilibrium. However, an overshooting adjustment dynamics is possible for the exchange rate, a result that directly relates to the famous Dornbusch (1976, Journal of Political Economy, 84, pp. 1161–1176) analysis. In contrast to the latter, in the Blanchard framework it is obtained without assuming rational expectations and without relying upon saddle‐path stability.     

Investigating first‐stage exchange rate pass‐through: Sectoral and macro evidence from euro area countries

In this paper, we evaluate the first‐stage pass‐through, namely the responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate changes, for a sample of euro area (EA) countries. Our study aimed to shed further light on the role of microeconomic factors versus macroeconomic factors in influencing the extent of the exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT). As a first step, we conduct a sectoral analysis using disaggregated import prices data. We find a much higher degree of pass‐through for more homogeneous goods and commodities, such as oil and raw materials, than for highly differentiated manufactured products, such as machinery and transport equipment. Our results confirm that cross‐country differences in pass‐through rates may be due to divergences in the product composition of imports. The higher share of imports from sectors with lower degrees of pass‐through, the lower ERPT for an economy will be. In a next step, we investigate for the impact of some macroeconomics factors or common events experienced by EA members on the extent of pass‐through. Using the system generalised method of moments within a dynamic panel‐data model, our estimates indicate that decline of import‐price sensitivity to the exchange rate is not significant since the introduction of the single currency. Our findings suggest instead that the weakness of the euro during the first 3 years of the monetary union significantly raised the extent of the ERPT. This outcome could explain why the sensitivity of import prices has not fallen since 1999. We also point out a significant role played by the inflation in the Eurozone, as the responsiveness of import prices to exchange rate fluctuations tends to decline in a low and more stable inflation environment. Overall, our findings support the view that the extent of pass‐through is comprised of both macro‐ and microeconomic aspects that policymakers should take into account.     

Price mechanism and endogenous productivity in an open economy stock‐flow consistent model

This paper combines a Stock‐Flow Consistent open economy two‐country model with the Verdoorn‐Kaldor law, which posits a positive relationship between the rate of growth of output and productivity growth. The model shows the role of endogenous productivity as a shock magnifier and underlines the limits of the mechanisms of adjustment that rely exclusively on the “buffer” provided by flexible exchange rates. It also provides arguments in support of fiscal policy both in the context of flexible exchange rates and fixed exchange rates. Finally, it challenges the sustainability of austerity measures aimed to achieve external balance.     

Exchange‐rate Misalignments in Duopoly: The Case of Airbus and Boeing

We examine the effect of exchange‐rate misalignments on competition in the market for large commercial aircraft. This market is a duopoly where players compete in dollar‐denominated prices while one of them, Airbus, incurs a large fraction of its costs in euro. We estimate price elasticities for big aircraft, and construct a simulation model to investigate how companies adjust their prices to deal with the effects of a temporary misalignment and how this affects profit margins and volumes. We conclude that, due to the duopolistic nature of the aircraft market, Airbus will pass only a small part of the exchange‐rate fluctuations on to customers. Moreover, due to features specific to the aircraft industry, such as customer switching costs and learning‐by‐doing, even a temporary departure of the exchange rate from its long‐run equilibrium level may have permanent effects on the industry.     

Commodity trading advisors' leverage and reported margin‐to‐equity ratios

We investigate the effect of leverage on Commodity Trading Advisors' (CTAs) performance measurement. We find that leverage has important effects on the cross section of CTA returns, volatility, and survival experience. On average, a 100‐basis points increase in leverage is associated with a 27‐basis points increase in returns. After performance is adjusted for leverage, volatility, and survival experience, CTAs' style variables have no significant effect on performance. The amount of leverage used by a CTA is found to reduce the likelihood of survival. However, the total effect of leverage on survival is much smaller than its partial effect. Contrary to common beliefs, we find that CTA diversification leads to higher levels of leverage and volatility. This apparent contradiction is related to how the diversification process affects the use of leverage. The findings in this study have implications for measuring and comparing managers' performance track records. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:1003–1017, 2003     

East Asia's Anti‐dumping Problem

East Asia accounts for a large and growing share of worldwide anti‐dumping (AD) activity. East Asian countries have long been the main targets of AD actions, accounting for about one‐third of all AD actions during the 1980s, more than 40 per cent of all AD actions during the 1990s, and almost 50 per cent of all AD actions in recent years. After controlling for factors that might influence filings such as the exchange rate and trade volume, it is found that East Asian countries are subject to about twice as many cases as either North American or Western European countries. Moreover, the trend in filings against East Asian countries is increasing, meaning that in recent years the propensity for countries to direct their AD filings against East Asian countries is growing. One concern is that the growing intensity of AD use against East Asia is driven by China‐PRC. Importantly, but a rising propensity is found even excluding China‐PRC.     

The Renminbi and Poor‐country Growth

Discussions on how best to exit from global imbalances to create a more balanced world economy have ignored the impact on poor countries of proposals to redress these imbalances. This paper aims at filling that gap. It gauges the degree of renminbi (RMB) undervaluation; presents evidence on RMB undervaluation and China’s GDP growth rate; surveys the role of the real effective exchange rate – both its level and its stability over time – for underpinning growth in developing countries, especially in large dual economies such as China and India; and finally, presents new evidence on growth linkages between China and poor countries for the last two decades and surveys literature on potential displacement effects of RMB appreciation. The analysis allows broad conclusions to be drawn about the potential developing‐country beneficiaries and losers from various renminbi adjustment scenarios in the forthcoming years.