New business formation in a rapidly growing economy: the Irish experience

The extraordinary growth of the Irish economy since the mid-1990s—the ‘Celtic Tiger’—has attracted a great deal of interest, commentary and research. Indeed, many countries look to Ireland as an economic development role model, and it has been suggested that Ireland might provide key lessons for other EU members as they seek to achieve the objectives set out in the Lisbon Agenda. Much of the discussion of Ireland’s growth has focused on its possible triggers: the long-term consequences of the late 1980s fiscal stabilisation, EU structural funds, education, wage moderation and devaluation of the Irish punt. The industrial policy perspective has highlighted the importance of inflows of foreign direct investment, but a notable absence from the discourse on the ‘Celtic Tiger’ has been any mention of the role of new business venture creation and entrepreneurship. In this paper we use unpublished Irish VAT data for the years 1988–2004 to provide the first detailed look at national trends in business birth and death rates in Ireland over the ‘take-off’ period. We also use sub-national VAT data to shed light on spatial trends in new venture creation. Our overall conclusions are that new business formation made no detectable contribution to the acceleration of Ireland’s growth in the late 1990s, although we do find evidence of spatial convergence in per capita business stocks.     

Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging East Asian and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the ‘decoupling’ of emerging East Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging East Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post‐crisis period, suggesting ‘recoupling’, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging East Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging East Asia (and China) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and industrial countries have become ‘bi‐directional’, defying the traditional notion of the ‘North–South relationship’ as one of ‘uni‐directional’ dependence.     

Nascent Entrepreneurship and the Level of Economic Development

Based upon two strands of literature, this paper hypothesizes a U-shaped relationship between a country’s rate of entrepreneurial dynamics and its level of economic development. This would imply a different scope for entrepreneurship policy across subsequent stages of development. Regressing global entrepreneurship (GEM) 2002 data for nascent entrepreneurship in 36 countries on the level of economic development as measured either by per capita income or by an index for innovative capacity, we find support for a U-shaped relationship. The results suggest that a ‘natural rate’ of nascent entrepreneurship is to some extent governed by ‘laws’ related to the level of economic development. For the most advanced nations, improving incentive structures for business start-ups and promoting the commercial exploitation of scientific findings offer the most promising approach for public policy. Developing nations, however, may be better off pursuing the exploitation of scale economies, fostering foreign direct investment and promoting management education. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Industrial Policy in the New Member Countries of the European Union: A Survey of Patterns and Initiatives Since 1990

The transitional recession in the new Central and East European members of the EU called for completely novel approaches to industrial policy in the nineties. A strong rejection of industrial policy could be observed only in some countries and during the first years of the transition process. Subsequently however, deteriorating competitiveness, soaring unemployment and the dramatic condition of key export sectors made the re-appearance of supply-side economic policy thinking inevitable in most Central East European Countries (CEECs), except for such small and open economies as Slovenia and Estonia. A wide variety of industrial policies implemented in the CEECs are compared in the study, with special emphasis on tools used in order to promote incoming foreign direct investment, technological development and the small and medium-sized enterprise sector. These elements of the industrial policy toolkit will keep their key role in most CEECs, albeit their industrial policies will gradually align themselves to the European mainstream.     

疫情背景下的全球变局和亚洲经贸合作

国际金融危机以来,世界经济格局东升西降趋势显著。亚洲经济在全球经济中的地位不断上升,特别是新冠肺炎疫情之下,东亚经济率先复苏,已成为世界经济重心。亚洲始终是中国经略周边外交的重点地区,如何经略好这一地区,积极营造繁荣稳定的周边环境和发展机遇期,对中国塑造发展全球伙伴关系和深化同周边国家的关系具有重要现实意义,有助于发挥中国作为大国领导力和提升国际影响力。特别是在中美贸易摩擦加剧、新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行背景下,探讨分析亚洲经济发展的战略和政策动向,探索亚洲经贸合作的新思路新路径,对赢得中美战略博弈主动、推动高质量发展具有特殊意义,也有利于推动区域各国加强互信互利合作和维护亚洲稳定繁荣。自贸区战略已成为大国竞争的战略制高点之一,提高自由贸易区标准和质量是大势所趋。分析各区域经贸协定、亚洲产业链转移趋势及对中国的机遇和挑战,有助于未雨绸缪,早有预案,争取主动。在分析这些重大问题的基础上提出亚洲经贸合作发展中亟需解决的重大问题与合作的新思路,给出中国方案和建议。     

Nigeria in the Global Economy

This paper provides a perspective on Nigeria’s global economic position and integration into the world economy. While other emerging market economies have benefited from globalization, there is concern that African countries continue to be marginalized. Among African countries, Nigeria is one of two major countries with strong potential to harness the opportunities and meet the challenges that the global economy could provide. Nigeria has the largest population in the continent and has been growing rapidly, due in part to gains from economic reforms and rising prices of oil. However, Nigeria’s integration into the global economy has been below potential. While it has improved its global rankings on indicators of competitiveness, business climate, and productivity in the past five years, it still ranks below most of its peer group on these indicators. It is among the poorest countries in the world in terms of social indicators despite oil wealth. Further integration into the global economy would require sustained policy reforms, improved governance, and public-private investments in social, human, and physical infrastructure. This paper is part of research on “The SANE as Africa’s Growth Poles: How Africa’s Big Four Could Power the Continent.” The SANE comprises South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, and Egypt.     

From dollarisation to euroisation

In the past the dollar has been so dominant as an international currency that the term ‘dollarisation’ has become a synonym for currency substitution, i.e. the voluntary use of a foreign currency instead of the respective country's own legal tender. This article addresses the question as to whether the euro may be expected to partly replace the US currency in this function, focusing on the former's use as a substitution currency in countries on the periphery of the euro zone. Some policy conclusions are drawn for both the ‘euroised’ economies and Euroland.     

Fluidity of Regulation-CSR Nexus: The Multinational Corporate Corruption Example

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a relatively undeveloped concept despite its increasing importance to corporations. One difficulty is the possible inexactness of CSR. Another is the apparent reluctance by regulatory authorities and policy makers to intervene in the area. This is largely a result of inhibitions created by traditional approaches to company law with emphasis on shareholder protection and financial disclosure. The consequence is the stultification of independent development of CSR by tying social issues to financial performance. This attitude might not be unconnected to the theoretical and practical challenges in justifying CSR and defining its scope. The underlying impediment is a factual and theoretical failure to distinguish ‘instrumental’ and ‘pure’ (ethical) CSR. This article demonstrates that ethical CSR highlights the role of regulation, and a principal stance is that regulation is neither incompatible nor irreconcilable with ethical CSR. The article argues that cognizance of the intrinsic moral justification of ‘pure’ CSR is required for delineating the scope of CSR as well as for clarifying the desirability and extent of its regulation. It argues that the dynamic history and visage of multinational corporate corruption illuminates the fluidity of the regulation–CSR relationship. The current and widening backlash against transnational corporate corruption is, arguably, a demonstration of the position that regulation and CSR are not mutually exclusive and absolute concepts. This article submits that recognition and application of this ‘ethical’ and ‘instrumental’ CSR distinction is fundamental to the development of CSR and resolution of connected questions of regulation.     

An economic analysis of the East Asia crisis

Since the summer of 1997, the East Asian “tiger” nations have suffered an unprecedented bout of weakness, plunging what had been vigorously expanding economies into a deep crisis. A number of domestic economic problems joined forces with turbulence on the foreign exchanges to generate a crisis of confidence on a grand scale. The crisis was triggered off by fundamental imbalances, with a key role being played by the “moral hazard” effect: domestic enterprises had been backed by implicit state guarantees, and it was always assumed that the IMF would assist if necessary. Then a destabilizing wave of speculation ran through the financial markets, pushing even countries with sound economic structures into difficulties. This article highlights the sequence of developments in the East Asian crisis, providing an economic explanation of the phenomenon.     

The stability of the Renminbi in the wake of the Asian financial crisis

In the wake of the Asian crisis, a possible devaluation of the Chinese currency has come to the forefront of the academic debate. The currency collapse of the Asian amerging economies has indeed left the Renminbi overvalued relative to its main regional competitors. This article explores the credibility of the ‘no devaluation’ pledge made by the Chinese policymakers.     

Monetary Policy and Financial Inclusion in Sub-Sahara Africa: A Panel VAR Approach

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the dynamic and bi-causal link between monetary policy and financial inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa using a panel VAR framework. The researcher obtained data from World Development Indicators (WDI) spanning from 1990 to 2014 for 48 sub-Saharan African economies. The findings suggest that a bi-causal relationship exists between monetary policy and financial inclusion. Specifically, it is evident that monetary policy affects financial inclusion, and financial inclusion is also influenced by monetary policy. The policy implication of this study is that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on financial inclusion. Hence, the efforts of governments in sub-Saharan African countries should aim at policies that enhance financial inclusion for effective implementation of monetary policy. Also, promoting financial inclusion will require governments in sub-Saharan Africa to reduce their monetary policy rates.     

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia*

During 2001–2010, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian economies, consistent with an overall ‘flight to safety’ effect. Estimates from GARCH models suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in mature market equity volatility generated an exchange rate depreciation of up to 3/4 percent. This sensitivity rose during a more tranquil subsample for some countries, reflecting their greater integration with global financial markets. Long‐run forex volatility increased in Asian economies after 2008, reflecting the global reach of the financial crisis in mature markets. Unconditional standard deviations estimated from these models provide operational measures of ‘long‐term’ and ‘excess’ volatility in forex markets.     

Speculative attack against the Hungarian forint

In mid-January 2003 a severe speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint. The attack was very unusual in the history of foreign exchange speculations, since it was aimed at enforcing the appreciation — and not the depreciation — of the currency targeted. The specific nature of this kind of speculation is closely related to Hungary’s accession to the European Union in general and to EMU in particular. Since the other Central and Eastern European acceding countries face similar problems and challenges, the Hungarian experience may involve some instructive lessons on monetary and economic policy for them too.     

经济全球化条件下我国对外贸易形势及其预期

本文认为,加入世贸组织后,我国已经成为亚洲地区其他国家的主要出口目的地,在地区产业分工中扮演着核心的角色.同时也面临着众多的挑战,需要深入研究,调整对外贸易的发展思路和政策,尽快完成产业结构调整,采取强有力措施促使沿海出口的生产基地逐步形成产业聚集,提高技术水平和企业竞争力,实现国内企业在加工贸易范围内的升级换代;更加积极地参与区域性的金融、贸易和经济合作;继续成功地执行"入世"承诺;审慎对待汇率调整政策.     

Industrial policy in the era of global value chains: Towards a developmentalist framework drawing on the industrialisation experiences of South Korea and Taiwan

In this paper, I present a framework for GVC-oriented industrial policy that merges the so-called GVC perspective and the so-called developmentalist perspective—the latter of which is a perspective that industrial policy is most often analysed through, but has been somewhat neglected by the GVC perspective. I argue that the GVC perspective too quickly dismisses the relevance of industrial policy in the East Asian development experience, particularly those in South Korea and Taiwan between roughly 1960 and 1990. By drawing on the industrialisation experiences of these two countries, my framework for industrial policy suggests that the GVC perspective's ideas for industrial policy would be strengthened by more clearly acknowledging the continued importance of three observations by the developmentalist perspective: (a) the need for governments in developing countries to bargain with foreign investors for the purpose of domestic industrialisation; (b) policy design should not only focus on increasing exports, but also focus on replacing some imports with domestic production; and (c) linking up to the value chains of transnational corporations based in high-income countries can bring about some benefits, but ultimately, successful industrialisation necessitates a degree of competing with transnational corporations. State-owned enterprises have historically played an important role in this respect.     

Understanding Consumers’ Ethical Justifications: A Scale for Appraising Consumers’ Reasons for Not Behaving Ethically

This article reports the results of research aimed at developing and validating a multi-item scale to measure consumers’ agreement with three main justifications for not engaging in socially responsible consumption (SRC) behaviours, namely the ‘economic rationalist argument’ founded on the idea that the costs of SRC are greater than its benefits, the ‘economic development reality argument’ based on the idea that ethical and moral aspirations are less important than the economic development of countries, and the ‘government dependency argument’ grounded in the premise that government inaction demonstrates the legal character and the banality of unethical consumption behaviours. The scale items were generated on the basis of a multi-country qualitative study of consumers (Eckhardt et al., 2006, ‘Why Don’t Consumers Behave Ethically’. DVD Document, AGSM). The content validity of the scale was assessed in the first study. The second study was a survey of 157 Canadian adult consumers in which the three-dimensional scale and other scales measuring relevant concepts were administered. The survey results showed that the 28-item resulting scale is reliable and generally behaves as one would theoretically expect. Implications for consumption ethics researchers and policy makers are proposed.     

Deciding to export: An exploratory study of Singaporean entrepreneurs

This paper confirms a mapping between a taxonomy of entrepreneurs and what triggered Singaporeans to become exporters. The study involved interviews with 47 new exporters based in Singapore. Entrepreneurs were classified as either ‘opportunity seeking’ or ‘reactive’. Export triggers were either ‘pull’, negative ‘push’, or positive ‘push’. We find that those who were opportunity seeking at start-up were more likely to have responded to export ‘pull’ forces. It was rare indeed for a reactive founder to have been ‘pulled’ into exporting. Among this group of entrepreneurs, ‘push’ forces dominated the decision to export. The paper concludes with some implications for policy targeting and suggestions for further research.     

Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity?

By exploring the export performances and specialisation patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (a) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textiles and leather products; (b) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (c) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (d) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; (e) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (f) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill-intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.     

中国房价暴涨的后果分析及海外房地产政策借鉴

本文引用大量数据分析了中国房地产价格暴涨对国民经济、实体经济、金融体系、社会阶层、消费心理等多方面的影响及严重后果,借鉴了国外发达工业国家房地产市场管理的经验,从土地制度、规划制度、税收制度、保障房制度等多个角度对中国房地产市场的管理提出了有益的建议。     

Real Output Co‐movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?

The East Asian region has experienced astonishing economic growth and integration over the past few decades. It is generally believed that a high degree of integration in the region would greatly shape the economic structure of each individual economy and has direct implications for the effectiveness of domestic stabilisation policy and policy coordination. This paper empirically examines the feasibility of forming a monetary union in East Asia by assessing the real output co‐movements among these economies. As suggested by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory that losing monetary independence would be the major cost for adopting a common currency, it would be less costly for the economies to form a monetary union if the business cycles are synchronised across countries. The cointegration test and the Vahid and Engle (1993 ) test for common business cycles are conducted to examine their long‐run relationship and short‐run interactions in real outputs, respectively. Our study found that some pair countries in the region share both the long‐run and short‐run synchronous movements of the real outputs. In particular, the short‐run common business cycles are found in some pairs of ASEAN economies consisting of Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, and in the Northeast Asian region consisting of Hong Kong, Korea and Mainland China, as well as between Japan and Taiwan. These findings have important implications for the economies in terms of adjustment costs when considering the adoption of a monetary union.