大城市居民低温奶产品消费及其影响因素分析以北京市为例

目的 低温奶产品是我国唯一可以与国际奶产品相抗衡的产品品类,未来低温奶产品必然在我国形成新的消费趋势,并成为复兴民族乳业的关键。基于此,探究大城市居民的低温奶产品消费认知水平、消费现状及其消费的影响因素既可开拓国内低温奶产品消费市场,也可弥补该产品消费研究的不足,对提高我国奶业国际竞争力具有重要现实意义。方法 文章通过使用2019年北京市8个辖区内的418位城镇居民乳制品消费调研数据,以不同群体特征作为切入点,深度分析大城市居民低温奶产品消费认知水平及消费现状,并借助Heckman两阶段模型考察个人及家庭特征和产品认知信息是否是影响城镇居民低温奶产品消费行为决策和消费水平的主要因素。结果 学生人口数、工作人口数、收入水平以及年龄、职业因素分别影响居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费行为决策。年龄、教育水平以及性别、人口总数、职业因素分别影响居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费水平。营养价值、口感风味和制作工艺因素对居民巴氏杀菌奶消费行为决策和消费水平均有显著影响,而保质期和价格因素仅对消费行为决策有显著影响。口感风味、制作工艺和价格因素对居民低温酸奶消费行为决策影响显著,但只有口感风味因素对消费水平有显著影响。结论 城镇居民低温奶产品认知概念薄弱,对营养价值、口感风味和保质期信息的认知程度较高。低温奶产品消费具有区域性差异,消费主力集中在女性人群、40~50岁人群、高学历和高收入人群中。个人和家庭特征以及产品认知信息对城镇居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费行为决策和消费水平均具有显著影响。未来我国大城市居民的乳制品消费将逐渐趋于新鲜化和休闲化发展,低温奶产品消费将发展为新兴消费趋势,液态奶产品消费结构逐步改善。     

Demand for milk quantity and safety in urban China: evidence from Beijing and Harbin

Urban households account for most of the milk consumption in China, but their consumption is hampered by safety concerns. Using survey data collected in Beijing and Harbin in 2010, this paper simultaneously analyses urban households' milk consumption using a multiple linear model and their willingness‐to‐pay for milk safety using an ordered choice model. The results of this study show that as income increases, urban households consume more milk and are willing to pay a higher premium for milk safety. Modern food marketing channels play a positive role in stimulating milk consumption and building consumers' confidence in milk safety. The growth in the elderly population influences milk consumption positively, but their demand for milk safety is negatively affected by higher price. The combined analysis of households' demand for milk quantity and safety may be useful to the Chinese government in promoting the development of the domestic milk industry and to dairy firms in exploring the milk market in China.     

Fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao,China*

This study relates the social‐demographic characteristics of urban Chinese consumers to their consumption of fluid milk. A Tobit model is estimated drawing on individual consumer survey data collected in urban Qingdao in China in 2005. The major results of this study indicate that fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao is much higher compared to China's national level. The effect of increased income on milk consumption is positive, as expected. The expansion of modern food retailers also appears to play a positive role by facilitating consumers’ fluid milk consumption and influencing their food shopping patterns. The young and old consume significantly more fluid milk than the middle‐aged. Health consciousness of the elderly and the openness of youth to new foods appear to be fuelling these consumption patterns. If the findings of this study apply to other urban regions in China, then as urbanisation continues so also will the trend of increasing fluid milk consumption in China.     

Consumption of dairy products in urban China: results from Beijing, Shangai and Guangzhou

Using urban survey data collected by the authors in 2001–02, this paper analyses demographics, cultural factors and purchasing behaviours influencing the consumption of fresh milk, yogurt, ice cream and powered milk in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, China. Results from estimation of a double-hurdle model of consumption show that income and marketing channels are the key determinants of milk consumption levels; however, education, advertising and convenience play a more important role in consumption of other dairy products. There is some evidence that milk powder, as a consumer good, may be becoming an inferior product in urban China. Finally, the survey data suggest that the growing sophistication of China's retail sector is influencing consumption of dairy products.     

Consumer Market Research on Milk in the Rural Greek Population

The purpose of the present paper is to analyse the consumption of different kinds of milk by the rural population of Greece, using the methods of multivariate analysis. First, using principal components analysis and the qualitative characteristics of milk, consumption patterns (profiles) for milk are formed. Secondly, the influence of socio-economic factors on these consumption pattems are estimated using variance analysis. Results revealed that the attitude of rural residents towards milk consumption is dominated by three critical issues: rationality, the practicality and rise of purchase, and new trend. An important finding is the existence of a high correlation between the degree of confidence in the product and the length of time that the product has been on the market. Moreover, while condensed milk exhibits a strong and positive profile in the milk market, its market share is expected to continue to drop in favour of pasteurised milk. Finally, some further implications of the study are drawn, concerning the milk companies' marketing strategies in the Greek rural population.     

Household Consumption Patterns of Dairy Products in Bamenda Urban Town; Northwest Province,Cameroon

An analysis of data collected from 207 households from Bamenda urban town revealed a high preference for fresh milk though actual consumption was low. Only 36% of households reported consuming fresh milk. Apart from butter, all households reported consuming local and imported dairy products on a daily basis. Only 4%, 3% and 16% of low-, medium- and high-income households consumed fresh milk daily, while 7%, 12% and 6% of low-, medium- and high-income households consumed fresh milk weekly. Mean household consumption of fresh milk was 3 kg for the high-income households, 3 kg for the low-, and 2 kg for the medium-income households. Although high-income households spent more money on fresh milk compared to the medium- and low-income households, the proportion of income spent on fresh milk was lowest for the high, followed by medium and low income households. The study suggests the need to organize home-based education programmes on nutrition as a strategy for boosting the consumption of dairy products among low-income households.     

Milk sales and dietary diversity among the Maasai

In Maasai culture, responsibilities are traditionally divided between genders. Men are in charge of grazing and managing the livestock herds. Women take care of the family, administer food supplies, and are responsible for milking. For them, balancing home consumption of milk (for the family and for the calves), milk sale, and food purchase is a major task. In this article, we first investigate how different milk sales groups vary regarding the use of different food items and the respective quantities consumed by the enkaji, i.e., a Maasai subhousehold. Then, we address the commercialization decision and assess the effect of milk sales on the enkaji's food item use and food consumption. Using the data of Maasai enkajijik in the milk catchment area of a milk collection center in Ngerengere, Tanzania, we estimate the effects by employing propensity score matching procedures. Our findings suggest that milk sellers, especially those selling to the milk collection center, have a more diverse diet. In terms of per person consumption, the groups are markedly similar. Therefore, we conclude that income generated by milk sales is invested in diet diversification rather than in increasing the quantity of food consumed, hence the enkajijik appear not to make use of caloric terms of trade.     

Unpacked and packed fluid milk consumption patterns and preferences in Turkey

The objective of this study is to investigate unpacked and packed fluid milk consumption patterns and preferences among Turkish households by using cross‐sectional survey data from 18,278 households. Based on the data, 47.8% of the households consume unpacked milk, 29.3% consume sterilized milk, and 7.9% consume pasteurized fluid milk at least once a month. Results of the multinomial logit model for fluid milk consumption behavior suggest that unpacked fluid milk preference is related positively to household size, income and age of the household head, and negatively to education level of the household head and status of the household wife. Similarly, pasteurized and sterilized fluid milk preferences are related positively to income and the education level of the household head, and negatively to household size and age of the household head. Results from these analyses are used to suggest techniques for marketing fluid milk products to specific segments of the consumer population.     

北方牧区居民家庭食物消费结构与特征研究

[目的]文章以内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔市内鄂温克族自治旗、陈巴尔虎旗、新巴尔虎右旗为典型区域,定量研究我国北方牧区居民家庭食物消费结构及特征,以期丰富我国牧区的食物消费数据库、促进牧区居民食物消费转型升级。[方法]采用分层抽样,通过实地入户3d跟踪称重调研,获取典型区域内204户居民家庭食物消费的一手数据,结合中国居民膳食宝塔推荐值和传统农村(山东省)居民食物消费数据,对牧区家庭食物消费结构进行分析。[结果](1)牧区居民家庭人均食物消费量为495.99g/(人·餐),其中植物性食物消费量是动物性食物的2.4倍;蔬菜消费占比最高(24.43%),其次是面粉(18.39%)、奶类(12.62%)和肉类(11.39%);粮食消费中50%以上为面粉消费,肉类消费中60%以上为牛羊肉消费。(2)不同区域和群体间消费差异明显。收入水平较高的家庭对非主食类食物(肉类、食用油、零食和酒水)的消费量更高,而对薯类的消费量更低;与少数民族相比,饮食主要决定人为汉族的家庭人均食物消费量更低,且对奶类、酒水的消费量明显更低。(3)与中国居民平衡膳食宝塔推荐值相比,呼伦贝尔牧区居民食物消费表现出高油多盐的特征,同时对牛羊肉为主的肉类和谷薯类的消费偏高,而对水产类、水果和奶类的消费明显不足;与传统农村居民家庭食物消费相比,牧区居民的蔬菜、大豆及坚果的消费量更低。[结论]牧区居民食物消费有了主、副食兼用的趋势,且仍能体现地域特色,但饮食结构仍呈现单一化,对牛羊肉等肉类消费过量情况尤为突出。     

不同城镇化增长方案下畜产品消费趋势比较分析

[目的]畜产品消费占食物消费比重逐渐上升,中国快速城镇化进程与食物消费结构升级已经形成了历史性的交汇,但测度两者联系的研究不够充裕。文章探究两者之间是否存在内在联系,有助于弥补城镇化和食物消费关联性的文献缺口,也可以在城镇化发展过程中给相关部门提供一定参考。[方法]在统计描述中国畜产品消费历史特征的基础上,通过中国农业产业模型(CASM)对比分析不同城镇化背景下畜产品消费趋势,详细分析城镇化给畜产品消费带来的增长效应和结构效应。[结果]城镇化率越高,畜产品消费量就越多。从消费结构上看,未来脂肪和能量含量较高的猪肉消费比重下降较为明显,而富含蛋白质的牛羊肉、蛋类消费比重稍有增长,蛋白质和微量元素兼重的奶类消费比重上升较为明显。脂肪含量相对较少且环保压力较小的禽类消费增长速度是肉类中最快的,且其增速在未来或将逐渐超过奶类。从城乡角度看,农村居民畜产品增长速度快于城镇,但城镇总体畜产品消费量多于农村。[结论]最后建议优化畜牧业产业布局、标准化流通体系,加快推进农业结构调整,实现粮经饲统筹、农牧渔结合发展;健全畜产品消费可追溯体系,在做好畜产品检验检疫的基础上,准确把握畜产品消费趋势,引导居民合理消费。     

中世纪英国母牛饲养及其经济价值考察

母牛是中世纪英国农业生产和生活中不可或缺的牲畜,它生产中世纪最重要的挽畜,牛奶比羊奶更受欢迎,奶酪、黄油都是农民生活中重要的食物。每头母牛的净收入几乎与成本持平,但除去草料成本,其收入为4先令,14世纪1头母牛的平均租金达到5先令,高收益促进了母牛饲养的繁荣。15世纪20-30年代后,由于瘟疫、需求下降和织布业的兴起,母牛饲养进入衰退阶段。     

Food consumption dynamics: a nonparametric approach using maximum entropy estimation

We model dynamic consumer choice in a stochastic optimal control framework and show conditions under which observable market share data possess the Markov property. Using 30 years of annual aggregate milk consumption data differentiated by fat content, maximum entropy is used to estimate nonstationary transition probabilities showing how consumer tastes and preferences have changed over time. The maximum entropy approach allows for the estimation of a 4 × 4 transition probability matrix for each year of the sample. Results suggest that skim milk was an absorbing state over most of the sample but that the trend toward skim milk has decelerated and possibly reversed itself since 1998. Our approach provides a useful complement to existing parametric approaches to demand analysis when data are limited or the problem is ill‐posed.     

Demand for wild edible mushrooms. The case of Lactarius deliciosus in Barcelona (Spain)

Wild edible mushroom demand has increased substantially in OECD countries in the last few years. Nevertheless, few studies have been published in recent years on these markets. The main objective of this paper is to characterise the saffron milk cap (Lactarius deliciosus Fr.) demand in Spain. Data sources in this study come from main Central Markets in Spain. Using econometric methods, we have found that the consequence of an increase in the price of the saffron milk cap has a negative effect on demand. However, changes in the percentage of persons born in Catalonia every year exercise a positive effect, and price increases in the Madrid market could also induce an increase in the Lactarius deliciosus demand in the Barcelona Central Market. The consequences of chanterelle imports on the Catalan demand for the saffron milk cap appear to be negative. Finally, results indicate that the saffron milk cap and oyster mushroom behave as complementary goods and, therefore, consumption of one of these mushrooms reinforces the other's consumption.     

大学生奶茶知识、态度和行为(KAP)调查

目的:了解大学生奶茶知识、态度和行为(KAP)现状及存在问题,并探索其影响因素,为有针对性地指导大学生奶茶合理消费提供科学依据。方法:采用调查问卷的方式,调查在校大学生奶茶KAP现况,并对结果进行统计分析。结果:大学生奶茶KAP得分普遍偏低。知识得分中,女大学生高于男大学生、上海地区高于非上海地区大学生、医学类高于非医学类大学生(P<0.05);态度得分中,未找到有统计学意义的相关因素;行为得分中,男大学生高于女大学生、非上海地区高于上海地区大学生、非医学类高于医学类大学生(P<0.05)。结论:奶茶饮用在大学生中是一个普遍现象,且大学生对奶茶营养知识不够了解、态度不够积极、饮用行为也不够健康。大学生奶茶饮用行为的改善需要家庭、学校和社会等各方面的努力。     

基于钻石模型的奶粉国际竞争力分析

随着经济社会发展,近年来我国乳品加工业取得较快发展,其中奶粉生产、消费均呈现出更快增长态势。但是,在奶粉贸易市场上,我国进口奶粉却逐渐扩大,出口奶粉处于低位。针对奶粉净进口量呈扩大趋势的热点问题,运用奶粉国际市场占率、贸易竞争指数及竞争优势指数进行测算,结果发现中国奶粉与新西兰、欧盟等世界主要奶业强国在国际竞争上存在较大的差距,且近年来竞争力有继续下降的趋势。新西兰在奶粉竞争力处于一家独大的优势,无论是国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数及显示性竞争优势指数,均处于领先地位。法国、德国、澳大利亚等国在国际上还保有一定的竞争地位,但由于市场份额被新西兰等国挤占,近年来有逐步下滑态势。面对这一严峻形势,运用波特的钻石竞争理论,从资源因素、需求条件、辅助产业、企业战略及政策带来的机遇、挑战等方面进行比较,对中国奶粉不具有国际竞争力进行原因分析。总的来看,中国奶粉需求增长潜力大,但限于资源紧缺,奶源生产增长压力大,国外奶粉生产国生产成本明显低于国内,奶粉面临国际市场的竞争力较大。最后,提出挖掘奶源生产潜力,根据区域不同资源禀赋,找出适合的养殖模式,充分利用资源,提高生产效率;要重新建立消费信心,通过奶业品牌的建立与质量安全监管,增强消费信心;还要充分利用好"两个市场与两种资源",鼓励奶粉加工企业走出去引进来,从交流合作中提升自身竞争力;同时,要尊重市场规律,把握贸易政策调控等力度;最终实现提高我国奶粉的国际竞争力目的,让中国人的奶瓶子掌握在中国人自己手里。     

Demand,challenges, and marketing strategies in the retail promotion of local brand milk

This article addresses the demand and challenges for local brand milk and focuses on the marketing strategies for retail promotion. While federal and state government make efforts to promote local food purchases and consumption at the farm level, local foods face significant distribution challenges in grocers, especially in larger retail stores. Limited shelf space and high pricing by retailers impedes consumers’ purchases and results in weak competitiveness for local brands. Therefore, it is essential for local producers and “buy local” programs to understand what types of promotion and marketing strategies might be more effective in stimulating demand in retail outlets. Using 2010-2011 Nielsen Retail Scanner data in the Northeast region, we estimate a random-coefficient discrete choice model of demand to determine the effects of nutritional characteristics, price, packaging, and distribution strategies on the consumers’ choice to purchase locally branded milk. Results show that local brand milk faces significant demand challenges in addition to high prices and limited outlets in competing with lower-priced products. Marketing strategies, such as price cut, one-gallon package offering, and expanded presence in retail stores, can significantly stimulate the demand for locally branded milk, with one-gallon package offering being the most effective strategy.     

Supply and demand for commodity components: implications of free trade versus the AUSFTA for the US dairy industry*

During the negotiations on the Australia–US free trade agreement (AUSFTA), the US dairy industry vigorously opposed opening the US market to imports of Australian dairy products on the grounds that the US industry would be devastated. Subsequently, the agreement signed in February 2004 made an exception for dairy, providing for only limited quota expansion and no free trade, even at the end of the long implementation period. This paper presents a simulation model of world dairy markets, represented by supply and demand equations for fat and non‐fat components of milk and manufactured dairy products. We use the model to analyse the effects on US milk markets of both a hypothetical agreement, allowing free bilateral trade in dairy products, and the actual AUSFTA. An important contribution to the literature is the derivation of explicit supply and demand relationships for milk components. The components model allows an analysis of long‐term production, consumption, and trade patterns that is not tied to specific, fungible products. Simulations indicate that increased imports from Australia resulting from bilateral trade liberalisation would have resulted in small reductions in US milk prices and production. The much smaller increases in Australian access to the US market under the actual AUSFTA will have even smaller, almost negligible, impacts.     

Dairy Demand, Supply and Policy in Korea: Potential for International Trade

Korea, like other Asian countries, has relatively low per capita consumption of dairy products and rapid demand growth. Tight import controls limit imports and the internal prices of dairy products are two to three times border prices. We find that dairy product demand (so far primarily fluid milk consumption) is elastic and has been sensitive to income growth and the modernization of the Korean economy represented by increased urbanization. Policy simulations and projections indicate substantial potential for import growth in manufactured dairy products, even if the growing fluid milk market is reserved for domestic producers and domestic milk prices rise somewhat.
Comme les autres pays asiatiques, la Corée consomme relativement peu de produits laitiers par personne et fait face à une croissance rapide de la demande. Les importations sont sévèrement restreintes et les prix intérieurs de ces produits sont deux à trois fois les prix à l'importation. Nous constatons que la demande pour les produits laitiers, encore essentiellement limitée au lait de consommation, est élastique et qu'elle a réagi à la hausse des revenus et à la modernisation de l'économic coréenne, marquée par l'intensification de l'urbanisation. Des études en simulation et les projections des planificateurs font état de possibilités importantes de croissance des importations de produits laitiers transformés, bien que le marché croissant du lait de consommation demeure réservé aux producteurs du pays et que les prix intérieurs manifestent actuellement une certaine hausse.     

Territorial dynamics and social differentiation among peasants in the northern highlands of Ecuador

This article addresses the process of social differentiation among peasants who were beneficiaries of the 1960s agrarian reform in the northern highlands of Ecuador. Although peasants obtained access to land that was previously in the hands of the haciendas, the incipient process of social differentiation that arose at that time was not halted. Today, peasants are incorporated into a commercial dynamic through milk production for agribusiness that has deepened the process of social differentiation between communities and within them. The supremacy of economic capital in the social field leads to a crisis in the traditional practices of reciprocity and to the incorporation of productive strategies and new “habitus” of consumption that have generated profound transformations in the territory.     

Dietary Globalization in Chinese Breakfasts

Demand for nontraditional foods is on the rise in China. Data from household surveys and consumer food diaries in Beijing, Nanjing, and Chengdu are examined to measure the effects of demographics on consumption of nontraditional food products. We focus on bakery and dairy products, two categories of foods that are rarely consumed in traditional Chinese breakfasts. We find that income, time constraints, and education positively affect the inclusion of nontraditional foods in the breakfast meal. Our results suggest that younger consumers are leading the transition to new global consumption patterns that integrate nontraditional foods into urban Chinese breakfasts. The implications of these findings for wheat and milk production and processing industries are discussed.