Unique and multiple equilibria in a macroeconomic model with environmental quality: An analysis of local stability

This paper develops and analyzes an economic growth model which incorporates environmental quality into the production and utility functions. We solve our model for the balanced growth path and find that a unique low growth equilibrium is attained when environmental quality is given less weight in the utility function. Multiple equilibria exist if environment quality is given greater weight in the utility function. We also perform local stability analysis of our model. We conclude that an economy in which the environmental quality is given relatively less importance by the agents will be caught in low growth, high consumption poverty traps as is the case for many developing countries while other economies can potentially reach a relatively low consumption, high growth steady state if they place greater weight on environmental quality. Finally we look at how the gap between low and high growth equilibria shrinks when individuals place greater weight on environmental quality and how governmental policies can promote growth when societies give less weight to the environment.     

Labor force growth and the environment in Costa Rica

The introduction to this report of a study that examines the potential environmental impacts of labor force growth (LFG) in Costa Rica under LFG scenarios notes that LFG is an economically critical aspect of population growth that can affect the environment by expanding the economy's production possibilities frontier and/or by increasing consumption. The introduction also explains why Costa Rica is ideal for this study and identifies the study as unique because it constructs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using 10 environmental indicators and because it models uncertainty regarding the values of the economic parameters. The report continues by reviewing the literature linking population and environmental issues; detailing the CGE model; discussing the 10 environmental indicators (deforestation, erosion, pesticide use, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and water/sewer usage) used in the model; and explaining the method used to simulate the impacts of LFG. The major conclusions that emerged from the results of this study are that 1) the economy-wide impacts of LFG (and, thus, population growth) on the environment are important and vary significantly according to the amounts of physical and human capital present in the labor force and 2) the impacts of LFG vary substantially among environmental indicators.     

生态环境、环境税与可持续经济增长

如何实现经济和生态环境的和谐发展,已经成为全球关注的焦点。文章把生态环境纳入生产函数和效用函数,构建一个考虑环境税的内生增长模型,运用最优控制方法求解模型的最优均衡解。并在此基础上,进一步探讨了生态环境与可持续经济增长的关系以及环境税对最优增长路径的影响。发现环境税的开征降低了最优增长路径上的经济增长率,却提高了人们的最优消费水平。而人们环境意识的提高可以帮助减小因环境税给经济增长率带来的冲击。     

Forecasting the economic,energy, and environmental impacts of national energy plans, 1990–2000

The objective of this article is to project the energy, economic, and environmental trade-offs to the year 2000 of President Carter's energy policies. It compares the trade-offs resulting from the National Energy Act of 1978 (NEA) with those from the synfuels strategy of July 1979. A hybrid model is used that consistently links the interindustry forecasting model of the University of Maryland (INFORUM) and the strategic environmental assessment system model (SEAS) with the FOSSIL 79 and ECONOMY 1 models. The study concludes that both these scenarios will a) reduce the growth rate of the economy, b) increase investment at the expense of consumption, and c) develop energy resources but d) deteriorate the quality of the environment in the Mountain States. In particular, in the synfuels scenario, compared with the base case, the study concludes that in the year 2000 energy consumption will increase from 94 to 95 quads, the GNP will decrease from $1.95 to $1.94 trillion, and in the Mountain States the particulates will increase by 67%, sulfur dioxides will increase by 10%, and nitrogen oxides will increase by 40%.     

The role of consumption patterns,demand and technological factors on the recent evolution of CO2 emissions in a group of advanced economies

Changes in production structures and modifications of patterns of consumption are key factors in the fight against environmental harm. Initiatives such as Agenda 21, promoted by the UN, highlight the need to evaluate the relationships among factors of production and consumption, innovation and demographics, and the environment, in the attainment of sustainable development. In this context, our work studies in depth those factors underlying the economic activity of households, in a representative group of European Union countries and the US. Within the framework of an input–output model, a Structural Decomposition Analysis is considered in order to identify the weight that growth in demand, changes in patterns of consumption, changes in the distribution of income, the substitution of inputs, and changes in energy intensity have all had on the evolution of CO₂ emissions. The work specifically seeks to identify common patterns and differential behaviors among productive sectors in the European social environment. The results show that growth in demand, and therefore in production, largely absorbs the limited effect of technological and efficiency improvements and the incipient changes observed in consumption patterns.     

Simultaneous Supplies of Dirty Energy and Capacity Constrained Clean Energy: Is There a Green Paradox?

We propose a representation of individual preferences with a subsistence requirement in consumption, and examine its implications for substitutability and sustainability. Specifically, we generalize the standard constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) utility specification for manufactured goods and environmental services, by adding a subsistence requirement for environmental services. We find that the Hicksian elasticity of substitution strictly monotonically increases with the consumption of environmental services above the subsistence requirement, and approaches the standard CES value as consumption becomes very large. Whether the two goods are market substitutes depends on the level of income. We further show that the subsistence requirement may jeopardize the existence of an intertemporally optimal and sustainable consumption path. Our results have important implications for growth, development and environmental policy.     

Pollution and life expectancy: How environmental policy can promote growth

This article investigates the influence of environmental policy (EP) on growth in an AK-type growth model, when finite lifetime is introduced and the link between pollution and life expectancy (through the detrimental impact of pollution on health) is taken into account.Using an overlapping generations model à la Blanchard [Blanchard, O. (1985). Debt, deficits and finite horizon. Journal of Political Economy, 93:223-247], we demonstrate that finite lifetime introduces a “generational turnover effect” which modifies the influence of the EP on growth. Thus, when lifetime is finite and independent from pollution, we show that the “generational turnover effect” limits the detrimental impact of the EP on growth, if agents smooth their consumption over time. When pollution negatively influences life expectancy through health, we demonstrate that the “generational turnover effect” is magnified and that the EP and growth have an inverted U-shaped relationship in the steady-state. In this case, we show that the environmental policy is more likely to promote growth (i.e. it stimulates growth for a wider range of environmental taxes) when the impact of pollution on health is important and/or public expenditures in health are low. Finally, using numerical simulations, we find that for the value of parameters that we have chosen, the EP will be more likely to promote growth when agents smooth consumption over time.     

新疆经济增长中的能源消费与环境污染

本文的研究目的在于分析新疆经济增长与能源消费、环境污染之间的数量联系机制。文章首先对新疆经济增长过程中的能源消费与环境污染现状做了详细的描述性统计;然后基于1985年～2007年的时序数据,建立经济增长与能源消费、环境污染的协整方程。研究发现,新疆存在从能源到经济的单向格兰杰原因,为能源依赖型经济体系;新疆经济增长、能源消费、对外贸易构成环境污染的单向格兰杰原因;在影响新疆环境污染程度的各因素中,对外贸易对环境污染的影响是很大的。     

When Environmental Policy is Superfluous: Growth and Polluting Resources

In a research–driven endogenous growth model, a non–renewable resource gives rise to pollution. Consumption may either grow or decline along the optimal balanced growth path, but the (flow) pollution level necessarily diminishes continuously. Any positive balanced growth path is sustainable. Utility may improve, even though consumption declines. Although positive growth is optimal, the market economy may nevertheless result in permanently declining consumption possibilities. At the same time, a growth–enhancing government policy may improve long–run environmental conditions. The pollution externality does not distort the decisions of the market economy, so that a specific environmental policy is superfluous.
JEL classification : O 41; Q 20; Q 28; Q 32     

Conservation: From Voluntary Restraint to a Voluntary Price Premium

This paper investigates how concern for the environment translates into predictable patterns of consumer behavior. Two types of behavior are considered. First, individuals who care about environmental quality may voluntarily restrain their consumption of goods and services that generate a negative externality. Second, individuals may choose to pay a price premium for goods and services that are more environmentally benign. A theoretical model identifies a symmetry between such voluntary restraint and a voluntary price premium that mirrors the symmetry between environmental policies based on either quantities (quotas) or prices (taxes). We test predictions of the model in an empirical study of household electricity consumption with introduction of a price-premium, green-electricity program. We find evidence of voluntary restraint and its relation to a voluntary price premium. The empirical results are consistent with the theoretical model of voluntary conservation.      

绿色需求视角的企业绿色发展动力机制研究

当代的生态环境问题是人类无法回避的挑战,持续损害的自然基础威胁到人类大部分的生存空间,实现削弱环境、资源冲击和促进经济增长的有效路径是企业实施绿色发展战略。首先,文章基于国家统计局公布的数据,采用DRCCGE模型,估算了2010-2020年的潜在经济增长指标,论证了绿色经济不是简单的数量级别的调整,而是以创新为核心的内涵式经济增长;其次,文章指出了绿色创新基石是绿色需求,包括消费者导向、企业导向和社会责任导向三大绿色需求;最后,文章阐明了三大绿色需求的共同作用形成推动企业主动因应环保压力的五大动力机制,即制度压力、效率提升需求、最终绿色消费需求诱导、竞争力培育推动和绿色形象树立等,得到了绿色发展是企业主动因应生态环境问题合意性策略行为的结论。     

Corruption in a neoclassical growth model with a non-convex production function

In this article, we analyze the bureaucrats’ corruption problem in a simple neoclassical growth model with a non-convex production function. In this model, we consider direct relations between product (income) taxation and corruption, and between corruption and public goods provision. As the main result, we show that the optimal consumption growth path in this economy is higher in a non-corrupt environment than in a corrupt environment and the higher the proportion of corrupt bureaucrats, the higher the cost of corruption to society.     

Ecological Intuition versus Economic “Reason”

This paper discusses the discount rate to be used in projects aimed at preserving the environment. The model has two different goods: one is the usual consumption good whose production may increase exponentially, and the other is an environmental good whose quality remains limited. The stylized world we describe is fully determined by four parameters, reflecting basic preferences, “ecological” and intergenerational concerns, and feasibility constraints. We define an ecological discount rate and examine its connections with the usual interest rate and the optimized growth rate. We discuss, in this simple world, different forms of the precautionary principle.     

Growth effects of environmental policy when pollution affects health

In this paper, we develop a R&D-based growth model with a pollution externality and a health production sector. We study how health-impairing pollution affects long term growth, and the effect of an emissions' reduction policy (tax). We show that a tighter environmental tax has positive effects on growth via two channels. On the one hand, it improves workers' health and, thereby, productivity; on the other hand, it induces a reallocation of resources towards R&D and, thereby, higher research intensity. The size of the growth effect of a tighter environmental tax, and the level of the optimal environmental tax, are both positively correlated with the weight individuals place on health relative to consumption. As for welfare, a tighter environmental tax brings about utility gains in the long run and, potentially, also in the short run.     

腐败、经济增长与环境污染的 库兹涅茨效应:以二氧化硫排放数据为例

目前，国内文献关于腐败、经济增长与环境污染相互关系的研究还不充分，将三者置于同一整体框架下的研究能为理解和验证腐败与环境之间的关系提供直接的证据。本文在传统的EKC模型中考虑腐败因素，利用1995-2011年的中国省级面板数据研究腐败、经济增长与环境污染三者之间的关系，验证了腐败对经济增长以及腐败和经济增长对环境的影响。结果表明：(1)腐败阻碍了经济增长；(2)经济增长与环境污染之间呈倒“U”型关系，我国仍处于经济增长越快，环境污染越严重阶段；(3) 腐败能够在一定程度上通过弱化经济增长从而对环境污染有负向作用，但这并不意味着腐败是解决环境污染的手段，政府不能通过阻碍经济增长来解决环境污染问题。     

The Optimal Timing of Adoption of a Green Technology

We study the optimal timing of adoption of a cleaner technology and its effects on the rate of growth of an economy in the context of an AK endogenous growth model. We show that the results depend upon the behavior of the marginal utility of environmental quality with respect to consumption. When it is increasing, we derive the capital level at the optimal timing of adoption. We show that this capital threshold is independent of the initial conditions on the stock of capital, implying that capital-poor countries tend to take longer to adopt. Also, country-specific characteristics, as the existence of high barriers to adoption, may lead to different capital thresholds for different countries. If the marginal utility of environmental quality decreases with consumption, a country should never delay adoption; the optimal policy is either to adopt immediately or, if adoption costs are “too high”, to never adopt. The policy implications of these results are discussed in the context of the international debate surrounding the environmental political agenda.      

Business cycles in a two-sector model of endogenous growth

Summary. This paper analyzes the impact of cyclical volatility on long-term economic growth: does growth increase or decrease with increased cyclical volatility? We construct a stochastic two-sector model of endogenous growth to analyze this question in detail. We will show that economic growth is higher in the presence of business cycles, since people devote more time to learning activities in an uncertain economic environment. Human capital is a hedge against future income uncertainty. Hence, the rate of economic growth will be higher in a stochastic environment. Based on a calibration of the model, we find that economic growth increases by 0.46%-point as a result of observed business cycle variability. When account is taken of the interaction between the model's general equilibrium and the cycle, welfare gains (measured in units of a permanent percentage increase in consumption) from eliminating business cycle volatility are approximately 1.87%. Received: January 25, 2000; revised version: November 3, 2000     

我国绿色税收政策效果分析及改革设想

我国在经济快速发展过程中出现了许多社会问题,其中环境污染是最严峻的问题之一。税收政策在促进环境改善方面具有十分明显的作用,通过制定税收政策引导企业经营方式的改变,从而实现环境改善已是各国的通行作法。与欧美国家相比我国税制的绿化程度很低,且不成体系。与生态环境有关的税收政策,散见于资源税、消费税、企业所得税等税种中,许多仍以费的形式存在,有较大的空间。应在借鉴国外绿色税收政策成功作法和经验的基础上,增加现行税种的环境保护功能,实行专门的环保税种,实行费改税等。     

An input–output model of water consumption: Analysing intersectoral water relationships in Andalusia

This paper presents an input–output model of sectoral water consumption, created by combining the extended Leontief input–output model with the model of energy use developed by Proops. The analysis is applied to Andalusia, a region situated in the South of Spain which is characterized by water shortage. We determine which economic sectors consume the greatest quantities of water, both directly and indirectly, and to what extent this natural resource may become a limiting factor in the growth of certain production sectors. The model allows us to distinguish between direct and indirect consumption, thus offering the possibility of designing an economic and environmental policy oriented towards water saving. Additionally, the model allows simulation of possible changes in water consumption caused by certain environmental measures, as well as their consequences on the regional economy.     

收入分配视角下经济增长与环境质量的关系

利用2003—2010年中国省级面板数据,将城乡收入差距的基尼系数作为衡量收入差距的指标,并将该指标作为主要的解释变量引入线性计量模型,使用主成分分析方法设计反映环境质量的综合指标,探讨了中国经济增长与环境质量之间的关系。研究结果显示:收入分配不公并不必然带来环境质量恶化,城乡收入差距与环境质量之间存在显著的负向关系;随着人均产出的上升,环境质量逐渐得到改善,"倒U型"的环境库兹涅茨曲线并不存在;地方政府对环境保护的重视程度会显著影响一个地区的环境质量。