R&D depreciation,stocks, user costs and productivity growth for US R&D intensive industries

This paper estimates R&D depreciation rates for U.S. R&D intensive industries. R&D annually depreciates at; 18% for chemical products, 26% for nonelectrical machinery, 29% for electrical products, and 21% for transportation equipment. These depreciation rates lead to new estimates of the marginal (gross of depreciation) returns to R&D capital; 0.25 for chemical products, 0.31 for nonelectrical machinery, 0.34 for electrical products, and 0.27 for transportation equipment. R&D investment significantly contributed to productivity growth; virtually 100% in chemical products, 55% in nonelectrical machinery, 38 percent in electrical products, and 84% in transportation equipment.     

Measurement and Allocation of Capital Inputs With Taxes: A Sensitivity Analysis for OECD Countries

Taxes affect the measurement of capital inputs. The paper provides an assessment of these impacts in a cross‐country framework where heterogeneity of corporate taxation across industries and asset types is accounted for. The results show that taxes change the relative prices of capital types, which, in turn, has implications on the estimated capital quality and reallocation effects in the traditional growth accounting framework. Omitting tax parameters is a source of mismeasurement, particularly when the rental price of capital assets is constructed using an external rate of return, leading to biased capital costs and profits rates. It is shown that differential taxation results in a deadweight loss in terms of misallocated capital inputs, predominantly due to composition effects within industries.     

Standardised capital stock estimates in Latin America: a 1950-94 update

Capital stock estimates are used extensively in many areas ofeconomic research, in spite of both theoretical and practicaldifficulties with respect to their use, estimation and meaning.The lack of comparable capital stock estimates in Latin Americahas hindered analysis of economic development in the regionand comparisons with other developed and developing countries.Standardised gross and net fixed capital stock estimates forthe 1950-94 period are presented for seven Latin American countries:Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Venezuela.The methodology employed is the 'perpetual inventory method'which estimates capital stocks as a weighted sum of past investmentflows. Several methodological issues are discussed, especiallydepreciation and service life estimation. Capital stocks havebeen disaggregated in machinery and equipment, non-residentialand residential structures with services lives of 15, 40 and50 years respectively.     

基于主成分分析的皖江城市支柱产业选择探究--以芜湖市为例

通过对国内外支柱产业选择基准的梳理,结合芜湖市区域经济发展特色,确定芜湖市支柱产业的选择方法,对芜湖市20个工业行业进行主成分分析。结果显示,芜湖市可选择交通运输设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业以及通用设备制造业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力热力的生产和供应业、非金属矿物制品业等六类行业作为备选支柱产业。同时,在第三产业中,旅游业与五大现代服务业是支柱产业培育的新亮点。     

产业自主创新能力差异与创新转型的产业类型选择

构建评价产业自主创新能力的指标体系,运用2004—2011年的经验数据对我国36个产业的自主创新能力进行了测算和分类,并据此提出了我国创新转型的产业类型选择。研究表明,我国36个产业的自主创新能力存在着较大的差异。其中,由通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业、交通运输设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业所组成的第一类产业,其自主创新能力强,应当作为我国实施创新转型的首选产业,集中最大的力量实施自主创新。国家应当尽早制订创新转型的产业政策,着重推进优势产业的自主创新进程,通过优势产业的率先转型带动整体经济的转型。     

DEVELOPMENT OF ESTIMATES OF THE STOCK OF FIXED CAPITAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The historical background and present methodology used in compiling the U.K. official estimates of the stock of fixed capital are described. Mention is made of the possibility that with the development of commercial accounting direct estimates of capital stock may be derived from enterprise accounts at some future time. For the present, however, an indirect perpetual inventory approach is followed. Some of the deficiencies of the present estimates are discussed including the effects of possible biases in the life-length assumptions, price indices and the treatment of secondhand assets. Estimates of gross capital stock are given analysed by industry group of ownership and by type of asset. Some conceptual issues are discussed in relation to user requirements, including the distinction between the stock of capital and the flow of services from it. The authors conclude that little can be done to improve the perpetual inventory estimate of fixed capital in the U.K. without devoting more resources to the collection and analysis of new information, particularly on the service lives of fixed assets, the extent of leasing and the transfer of assets between industries.     

金融危机中的中国外贸高风险行业研究

我国对外贸易风险主要集中在燃料矿产品行业、化工行业、机械运输设备行业、办公通讯电子行业、纺织服装行业.在这五个外贸高风险的行业中,纺织服装行业的外贸风险主要存在于出口贸易;燃料矿产品行业和化工行业的外贸风险主要存在于进口贸易;机械运输设备行业和办公通讯电子行业的外贸风险不仅存在于出口贸易,还存在于进口贸易.2003至2007年这五个行业的国际竞争力最高的是纺织服装行业,最低的是燃料矿产品行业.当前,我们要积极扩大内需,缓解外向型经济带来的风险压力.     

Estimation of the Investment Thresholds of Large Japanese Manufacturers

We approximate the investment threshold by the point at which a logistic curve has the largest curvature of convexity. Our threshold estimates are 1.82 and 1.51 in Tobin's marginal Q for machinery manufacturers and chemical/metal manufacturers, respectively. These numbers lie in between the two estimates calculated by Barnett and Sakellaris for US manufacturers. Our estimates exceed one in all industries, which also agrees with Dixit and Pindyck's analytic result. The threshold for the electrical machinery industry is higher than the others. An increase in uncertainty raises the investment threshold, while an appreciation in asset value lowers it.
JEL Classification Numbers: C23, E22.     

主导产业选择问题的分析与研究——基于南京市绿色GDP视角

正确确定地区主导产业是实现产业结构合理调整的关键,也是经济发展的可持续性得以实现的基础。本文首先单纯的从经济发展角度考察,确定以反映关联强度、需求、生产率上升、产业规模的一套指标体系,用九个具体指标粗选出南京市十大主导产业,接着从环境资源的保护与节约、可持续发展等概念和思维角度出发,以＂绿色GDP＂核算为标准,通过AHP法建立相关模型,计算相关指标并提出南京主导产业（群）的确定方案。研究结果为：未来一段时期南京市主导产业为四大主导产业通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业、通用专用设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业和石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业。而南京市的传统产业如化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力生产等重污染行业则放在次发展的位置。     

基于区位商理论的安徽特色产业研究

应用区位商和贸易比率理论,通过对安徽各产业进行计算和分析,确定以现代农业,以煤炭、电力为主的能源产业,以汽车等交通运输设备、机械设备为主的装备制造业,以冶金、化工、建材为主的原材料产业,以农副食品加工业、饮料制造业、纺织业、服装及其他纤维制品制造业为主的食品轻纺产业,以电子信息、生物技术等为主的高新技术产业以及现代服务业为安徽的特色产业。安徽要大力发展这些具有地方特色的特色产业,实施特色产业集群发展战略,加速推进经济发展。     

Estimates of China capital input index by industries (1981–2000)

The purpose of this paper is to report estimates of capital input index classified by industries in China from 1981 to 2000. We estimate capital stock based on the perpetual inventory method, and then estimate the flow of capital service and capital service price consistently with the capital compensation in input-output table. In our study, we discuss various assumptions and adjustments made on the data and estimation implementation.      

转轨时期我国行业层面资本积累的研究——资本存量和资本流量的测算

本文区分了资本财富存量估算和资本服务流量估算的差异,并使用OECD的资本测算框架估算了具有国际可比性的我国行业层面资本存量和资本流量数据。结果表明,同发达国家相比,不管是资本产出比还是资本收益率数据,都不能说明我国资本积累过度;但基础设施行业的资本积累速度明显偏快。从资本流量估算结果发现,制造业的资本生产率在提高,而第三产业特别是基础设施行业资本生产率在下降;第三产业的产出增长主要来自资本的贡献;而行业间资本再配置效应为负。     

INDUSTRIAL AND AGGREGATE MEASURES OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CHINA, 1982–2000

We estimate productivity growth for 33 industries covering the entire Chinese economy using a time series of input–output tables covering 1982–2000. Capital input is measured using detailed investment data by asset and labor input uses demographic information from household surveys. We find a wide range of productivity performance at the industry level. We then show how these industry growth accounts may be consistently aggregated to deliver a decomposition of aggregate GDP growth. For the 1982–2000 period aggregate TFP growth was 2.5 percent per year; decelerating from a rapid rate in the early 1980s to negative growth during 1994–2000. The main source of growth during the 1982–2000 period was capital accumulation, with a small negative contribution from the reallocation of factors across industries.     

A macroeconometric analysis of the effects of taxation on financing and real investment in equipment in Canada

This paper analyses the impact of taxation on corporate financing and corporate investment in machinery and equipment in Canada. A coherent macroeconometric model of the firm's real and financial decision process is theoretically developed and empirically tested on Canadian data. Estimates of the impact of taxation in general and of the 1987 Canadian government's White Paper in particular, are analysed. The estimates suggest that income taxation has a negative but relatively small impact on equipment investment in Canada, and that models that ignore the link between the real and financial decisions overestimate the impact of taxation on real investment. With respect to tax reform, the White Paper reduces the incentive to save and invest in equity capital, and is expected to decrease real capital investment in the long run.     

中国贸易结构及二氧化碳排放分析

通过投入产出SKYLINE分析法,探讨了中国进出口贸易在国际分工中的二氧化碳排放问题,研究结果显示2007年中国贸易结构在国际分工中具有污染逆差特征。分行业看,净出口二氧化碳排放比例排在前八位的产业部门分别是纺织业、纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品业、木材加工及家具制造业、通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业、金属制品业、工艺品及其他制造业、造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业、电气机械及器材制造业。     

Foreign direct investment in R&D and domestic entrepreneurship in China’s manufacturing industries

This paper argues that internationalization of innovation and the related spillovers can also affect the likelihood of firm entry and exit into an industry. By making use of firm-level panel data from China over the period 2005 to 2007, this paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in research and development (R&D) and the related linkages on entry and exit likelihoods of domestic firms in (i) transport equipment and (ii) electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries. In order to evaluate the region-of-origin effect, this paper also separately examines the impact of FDI in R&D originating from (i) all countries except Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan and (ii) Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Furthermore, the impact of FDI in R&D on entry and exit of Chinese firms in the two industries is examined by splitting the data into large and small firms within the two industries. The results of the pooled probit regression reveal that FDI in R&D and the related spillovers can have a significant impact on the likelihood of entry and exit of domestic firms in transport equipment and electric machinery and equipment industries. The empirical analysis also suggests that the impact of changes in FDI in R&D and the related spillovers varies across firm size.     

Technology transfer to the USSR: The marginal-productivity differential and the elasticity of intra-capital substitution in Soviet industry

This article critically examines the estimations of the effects of technology transfer on Soviet industry by D. W. Green, H. S. Levine, and M. L. Weitzman. A hybrid production function is estimated on the time-series data. Soviet-made capital and imported equipment are integrated into a composite capital in the CES form. This capital is then put together with labor to form a CD production function. Statistical tests show that the marginal productivities are indistinguishable between domestic and imported capital and that the elasticity of substitution between the two types of capital is close to unity. The hybrid form, however, yields estimates significantly different from those of the CD and additive forms. J. Comp. Econ., June 1979 3(2), pp. 181–194. Russian Research Center, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Department of Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.     

Human capital effects on technical inefficiency: a stochastic frontier analysis across industries of the Greek economy

In this paper we examine the impact of human capital on technical inefficiency. A stochastic production frontier is simultaneously estimated with a technical inefficiency model using data from one-digit industries of the Greek economy, for the period 2000–2005. The results indicate a significantly negative impact of human capital on technical inefficiency, which is comparatively lower in magnitude for the sector of public services. The most efficient industries of the Greek economy are those of Education, Financial intermediation and Real estate, renting & business activities. The highest contribution of human capital on technical efficiency is observed in the industries of Health, Education and Real estate, renting & business activities.