Coherent forecasting for count time series using Box–Jenkins's AR(p) model

During the last three decades, integer‐valued autoregressive process of order p [or INAR(p)] based on different operators have been proposed as a natural, intuitive and maybe efficient model for integer‐valued time‐series data. However, this literature is surprisingly mute on the usefulness of the standard AR(p) process, which is otherwise meant for continuous‐valued time‐series data. In this paper, we attempt to explore the usefulness of the standard AR(p) model for obtaining coherent forecasting from integer‐valued time series. First, some advantages of this standard Box–Jenkins's type AR(p) process are discussed. We then carry out our some simulation experiments, which show the adequacy of the proposed method over the available alternatives. Our simulation results indicate that even when samples are generated from INAR(p) process, Box–Jenkins's model performs as good as the INAR(p) processes especially with respect to mean forecast. Two real data sets have been employed to study the expediency of the standard AR(p) model for integer‐valued time‐series data.     

Improving the process of process modelling by the use of domain process patterns

The use of business process models has become prevalent in a wide area of enterprise applications. But while their popularity is expanding, concerns are growing with respect to their proper creation and maintenance. An obvious way to boost the efficiency of creating high-quality business process models would be to reuse relevant parts of existing models. At this point, however, limited support exists to guide process modellers towards the usage of appropriate model content. In this paper, a set of content-oriented patterns is presented, which is extracted from a large set of process models from the order management and manufacturing production domains. The patterns are derived using a newly proposed set of algorithms, which are being discussed in this paper. The authors demonstrate how such Domain Process Patterns, in combination with information on their historic usage, can support process modellers in generating new models. To support the wider dissemination and development of Domain Process Patterns within and beyond the studied domains, an accompanying website has been set up.     

Foundational Value of Statistics Education for Management Curriculum

The purpose of this paper is to propose a unique and distinct value of statistics education for management. The 1986 inaugural conference on Making Statistics More Effective in Schools of Business (MSMESB) proposed valuable guidelines for reforming statistics education in schools of business. However, a survey conducted by McAlevey & Everett (2001) identified that their impact has been minimal, and argued that structural problems many business schools have are the potential cause. We argue these structural problems exist because the value of the body of statistical tools for management is ambiguous and has not been made explicit. The unique and distinct value of statistics for management can be identified as the body of tools necessary to meet the inherent needs of a manager charged with making predictive judgments facing data. The need arises because human information‐processing capacity is quite limited, as the findings of researchers in cognitive psychology testify. These findings also affirm that the basic statistical concepts needed for processing data cannot be learned from management experiences. The model of a manager faced with data, while considering the evidence of inherent limitations of human information‐processing capacity, establishes the foundational value of statistics training in the management curriculum. Statistics education in business schools will be made more effective when management educators recognize such value of the discipline, lend their support and reward the ownership commitment for continuous improvement and innovations of the business statistics curriculum.     

Handbook on development policy and management

ABSTRACT

Although the public service logic (PSL) has been an important equipoise to the predominant goods-manufacturing logic, there is potential to broaden its scope. An explicit integration of social context may contribute to an enhanced conceptual understanding of the PSL, at the same time addressing a major challenge in healthcare: disparities among population groups. A ‘representative co-production’ approach is suggested. In such an approach, group representatives’ knowledge and skills are used in evaluating, designing, and delivering services with the purpose of supporting other group members’ value co-creation. A case is provided, demonstrating representative co-production in access to preventive health services.     

A systematic review of barriers to public sector innovation process

ABSTRACT

This article provides a systematic review of the empirical literature on barriers within public sector innovation processes, based on data from 63 articles. We investigate the nature of barriers using four dimensions: (i) classification; (ii) interrelations; (iii) innovation process and (iv) types of innovations. A new classification is developed to show that interaction-specific barriers emerge during collaborative innovation. Significantly, we identify that the nature of barriers are more complex than has previously been recognized, where there has been an emphasis on organizational barriers. We identify that the nature of barriers differ in process and innovation types. Moreover, they show interrelations across the process.     

A service governance mechanism based on process mining for cloud-based applications

ABSTRACT

With the widely use of cloud computing in enterprise information systems, service governance becomes critical for an enterprise to adapt to a changing business environment. In order to provide a dynamic strategy for continuous service governance, in this paper a comprehensive service analysis solution is proposed to address both design time and run-time requirements for cloud applications. First, a process-centric Semantic Scene Model is composed to combines static business requirements with dynamic execution information. Then service analysis is conducted referring both to the business process mining results from event logs and the Semantic Scene Model given by business model designers. Service governance strategies are generated from the service analysis results and are performed to qualitatively classify the Quality of Service (QoS) of the services. Finally the approach is verified with a transportation logistics service application in a cloud platform. The result shows that our method can get continuous service governance through combining business processes with run-time service analysis.     

Factors shaping the international knowledge connectivity of industrial clusters: a comparative study of two Latin American cases

Abstract

Recent research has emphasized that success of industrial clusters is not only driven by intra-cluster knowledge sharing (‘local buzz’) but also by externally sourced knowledge (‘global knowledge pipelines’). This article examines the factors that determine the channels through which clusters connect with global knowledge pipelines depending on the structure of the global value chain within which they are inserted, their knowledge base and their stage of evolution. Building on a comparative case study of the salmon farming cluster in Chile and the software cluster in Costa Rica, we adopt an evolutionary perspective based on historical analysis to better understand how the configuration of clusters’ international knowledge linkages shifts over time. Our findings suggest that (i) the more hierarchical the global value chain structure, the less room for knowledge co-creation between local and foreign actors; (ii) clusters relying on analytical knowledge bases opt for more formal and coordinated links with high involvement of public actors, whereas in clusters relying on synthetic knowledge bases, international knowledge interaction is based on less formal links mainly between business actors; and (iii) as clusters evolve the channels through which they connect with foreign knowledge increase in number and new ‘hybrid’ varieties develop.     

Groundwater and the Land Value Tax

Abstract . Application of the land value tax has been described for many natural resources. However, the problems encountered with flowing underground resources have not been fully discussed. Groundwater is one such flowing resource that affects the value of surface land. The underground water is also subject to its own market forces. If a Georgist tax is to be applied to groundwater or to land affected by it, the administrator of the tax must consider the interplay that occurs between the two resource markets. A system of separable property rights to the two resources offers the prospect for efficient use. But the monitoring of ground water use must accompany such a separation.     

How do crowd logistics platforms create value? An exploratory case study from China

ABSTRACT

Crowd logistics platforms play an important role in value creation, but the extant literature has not clarified how platforms create value. Consequently, this multiple case study identifies three main types of value creation capabilities for crowd logistics platforms: resource matching, operations management, and risk control. Additionally, the study demonstrates that these crowd logistics platform capabilities create value by providing the most accurate matches between resources and requests while also enhancing driver agility and compliance. Based on these findings, we present four propositions that extend our understanding of crowd logistics platforms’ value creation capabilities and the process through which these capabilities lead to value creation. The study also provides valuable insights for crowd logistics companies to improve their value creation capabilities.     

Representation of Developments in Labour Market Research

A knowledge graph is a kind of semantic network representing some scientific theory. The paper describes the state of art in this field and addresses a number of problems that has not been solved yet. These are: implicit relations, strength of (causal) relations, and conditions. Concepts might be too broad or complex to be used properly, directions for solving this problem are explored. The solutions are applied to a knowledge graph in the field of labour markets.     

Business process architectures: overview,comparison and framework

With the uptake of business process modelling in practice, the demand grows for guidelines that lead to consistent and integrated collections of process models. The notion of a business process architecture has been explicitly proposed to address this. This paper provides an overview of the prevailing approaches to design a business process architecture. Furthermore, it includes evaluations of the usability and use of the identified approaches. Finally, it presents a framework for business process architecture design that can be used to develop a concrete architecture. The use and usability were evaluated in two ways. First, a survey was conducted among 39 practitioners, in which the opinion of the practitioners on the use and usefulness of the approaches was evaluated. Second, four case studies were conducted, in which process architectures from practice were analysed to determine the approaches or elements of approaches that were used in their design. Both evaluations showed that practitioners have a preference for using approaches that are based on reference models and approaches that are based on the identification of business functions or business objects. At the same time, the evaluations showed that practitioners use these approaches in combination, rather than selecting a single approach.     

Applying jump-diffusion processes to liquidate and convert venture capital

This study attempts to apply real options and expand the model designed by Lin and Huang [Lin, T.T., Huang, Y.T.: J. Technol. Manage. 8(3), 59–78 (2003)], which helps venture capital (VC) companies to optimize project exit decisions. The expected discounted factor and a jump-diffusion process combine to assess the value of a start-up company, and determine the threshold of the exit timing of liquidation or convertibility for establishing the optimal disinvestment evaluation model for VC companies. When the project value is below V_L^*V_L^\ast, the VC company carries out liquidation, but when the project value exceeds V_C^*V_C^\ast, the VC company performs convertibility. The project value is ranging between (V_L ^*,V_C^*)\left({V_L ^\ast,V_C^\ast}\right), and the best choice is holding the decision and waiting to carry out the rights of liquidation and convertibility next time. Besides, this work attempts to identify the expected discounted time in terms of the investment time for VC companies.     

浅析多时期证券投资组合价值与其收益的关系

文章从定量分析的角度,推导了多时期证券投资组合价值与收益过程之间的数学关系,同时还推导了折现价值过程中投资组合价值与收益过程的数学关系。     

On a study of the exponential and Poisson characteristics of the Poisson process

Based on the exponential and Poisson characteristics of the Poisson process, in this work we present some characterizations of the Poisson process as a renewal process. More precisely, let γ_t be the residual life at time t of the renewal process A={A(t),t≥0 }, under suitable condition, we prove that if Var(γ_t)=E ² (γ_t),∀t≥0, then A is a Poisson process. Secondly, we show that if Var (A(t)) is proportional to E (A(t)), then A is a Poisson process also, and Var (A(t))=E (A(t)). Received: August 1999     

A count-amount model with endogenous recording of observations

This paper discusses some of the problems which are encountered if an event ? is only recorded if its value satisfies a recording criterion A. It follows that we get an incorrect idea of the frequency of the events and of its true distribution. In order to solve these problems, an econometric model has been constructed by means of which consistent estimation of the true parameters is possible. The model is estimated on consumer purchases, where the number of purchases is assumed to be NEGBIN-distributed and the purchase amounts obey a lognormal distribution. Purchases are only recorded if their value exceeds Dfl. 10. It is shown that ignoring the recording condition will result in biased estimates and invalid predictions. Apart from this, the model is, among others, relevant for insurance problems, marketing surveys and criminological and epidemiological phenomena.     

The queuing system GI/M/I with finite waiting space

Summary Time dependent solution of the queuing system characterized by a general independent input, exponential service time distribution and a finite waiting space, has been first investigated by using the “phase method”. On finding the waiting room full, the customers then arriving may be turned away or the first customer may wait outside and the input process may be stopped till the customer then being served, completes its service. Steady state solutions of both these problems have been obtained and the difference in the operational behaviour of the two systems has been pointed out. For a 2-Erlang arrival distribution, the queuing parameters have been evaluated for different values ofρ _r andN.     

Interactive identity work of professionals in management: a hospital case study

ABSTRACT

Hybrid professional managers appear less effective in introducing management into public professional settings than policymakers hope. To date, research has offered little understanding of professionals’ identity transition challenge and the role of social interactions underpinning this process. We studied the identity work of hybrid doctors inside a large public health-care organization, finding that it takes place through processes of familiarizing with management, rationalizing being a hybrid, and legitimizing the new role-identity. We contribute to the literature by showing that identity work is distributed and enabled by social interactions beyond the professional group. Implications for policymakers and executives are discussed.     

Graphical Analysis of Capability of a Process Producing a Product Family

Statistical techniques are effective and powerful means of quantifying the variability of processes, analyzing this variability with reference to product requirements, and eliminating this variability in product manufacturing. Many process capability indices have been effectively and widely used to determine whether the quality of a process meets preset targets. However, conventional process capability indices cannot be applied to assess the entire process capability of a product family with nominal-the-best specifications. This work presents a novel process capability index (C_pp^T), which takes into account all family members. The index C_pp is a simple transformation from index C_pm, and C_pp^T provides additional, individual information concerning the accuracy and precision of a process. Vännman’s (δ, γ)-plot [Vännman and Deleryd, Quality and Reliability Engineering International 15(3): 213–217 (1999)] is revised to compare the process capabilities of family members under both 100% inspection and sampling plans. Examples are provided to demonstrate the method’s practical application.     

A methodology to rank enterprise application integration platforms from a performance perspective: an analytic hierarchy process-based approach

ABSTRACT

Companies’ software ecosystems comprise applications that support their business processes. Frequently, these applications have been developed with different technologies and with no concern about integration. Integration platforms are tools that facilitate the development and execution of integration solutions. In this article, we propose a methodology to support software engineers in the decision-making process for an integration platform when performance is a central requirement. The proposed methodology adds objective criteria for performance assessment purposes and has been used to rank the five most popular integration platforms in order to prove its feasibility.