The cycle of violence in the Second Intifada: Causality in nonlinear vector autoregressive models

We contest Jaeger and Paserman's claim (Jaeger and Paserman , 2008. The cycle of violence? An empirical analysis of fatalities in the Palestinian–Israeli conflict. American Economic Review 98 (4): 1591–1604) that Palestinians did not react to Israeli aggression during Intifada 2. We address the differences between the two sides in terms of the timing and intensity of violence, estimate nonlinear vector autoregression models that are suitable when the linear vector autoregression innovations are not normally distributed, identify causal effects rather than Granger causality using the principle of weak exogeneity, and introduce the “kill‐ratio” as a concept for testing hypotheses about the cycle of violence. The Israelis killed 1.28 Palestinians for every killed Israeli, whereas the Palestinians killed only 0.09 Israelis for every killed Palestinian.     

PLURALITY IN URBAN POLITICS: Conflict and Commonality in Mouffe and Thévenot

In this article we introduce a pragmatist interpretation of agonistic pluralism and develop this into an analytical framework that is applied to the analysis of urban conflicts. In the article, we take stock of contemporary critical and radical urban scholarship, our aim being twofold. First, we substantiate Chantal Mouffe's notion of agonistic pluralism with tools from French pragmatic sociology. We suggest that, in a democracy, plurality emerges both as a plurality of conflict manifested in the variety of possible ways to identify injustices, and formulate and justify claims in public struggles, and a plurality of commonality, manifested in different logics by which a ‘we’ can be formed and action coordinated so as to solve issues without resorting to physical violence. Secondly, by applying the developed conceptualization of plurality to an ongoing urban conflict concerning an airport, we showcase the value of the approach for identifying and analyzing different forms and phases of actually existing political conflicts, and for recognizing their meaning for democracy.     

Finding Tools to Limit Sectarian Violence in Indonesia: The Relevance of Restorative Justice

This article explores the relevance of the restorative justice paradigm to issues of conflict avoidance and resolution in Indonesia. Sectarian violence engulfed Indonesia in the late 1990s after the fall of the New Order, largely as a result of resource competition and other economic factors. In addition, the revival of customary forms of authority through the national indigenous peoples movement exacerbated the potential for conflict between long‐settled indigenes and more recent migrants. A case study shows how the spread of communal conflict to the Lindu plain in Central Sulawesi was averted despite the sectarian violence in a nearby city. Local customary procedures of adjudication were insufficient to cope with such issues in a multiethnic context, as the ethnic groups in the area did not all subscribe to the same body of custom (adat). Instead, a diverse assembly of stakeholders invoked nationalist idioms of harmony and consensus to forge an agreement to avoid violence. Previous legal theorists have pointed to adat as a preexisting respository of restorative justice practices. However, this article argues that interethnic contexts require restorative practice to forge novel syntheses to deal with communal violence. Such syntheses may incorporate adat mechanisms, but they must also integrate other tools that gain the allegiance of multiple groups to work toward reconciliation and avoidance of further violence.     

Bancarization and violent attacks from guerrilla and other illegal groups in Colombia

Income shocks affect violence through the opportunity cost and rapacity effects. Existing studies focus on the impact of transitory shocks, especially commodity price innovations. This paper builds on this literature and studies the causal effect of permanent income shocks on armed conflict in Colombia. Using a rich dataset reporting all guerrilla and other armed groups' attacks by municipality between 2009 and 2014 and information on the provision of banking services, it shows that increasing bancarization leads to reductions in violence. These results have important implications for public policy in countries with a long history of violence. They suggest that promoting financial inclusion is useful for reducing conflict.     

SURVEY OF ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF MARITIME AND TERRITORIAL DISPUTES

Drawing on studies on the economics of conflict, this paper reviews the literature on maritime and territorial disputes; and it examines an array of economic implications associated with territorial and maritime disputes. These include adverse effects on certain economic and development outcomes arising from possible armed confrontation, with some of these possibly lingering in the aftermath of conflict. There are also various economic disruptions and costs associated with these disputes, emphasizing how they also affect the livelihoods of resource users in the disputed areas. A clearer understanding of these economic links could help inform and motivate policymakers on mitigating the risks of conflict. Based on the review of evidence herein, the economic implications of conflict in terms of foregone average trade among the country pairs considered in the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea (in 1985 dollars) – which differ in important ways but hint at some common channels of impact – could range from US$ 909.3 million to US$ 98.8 billion. More broadly, the impacts on a disrupted global production chain can easily amplify these results even further, affecting global growth prospects for many decades, according to experience.     

The diffusion of medical technology: a "prisoner's dilemma" trap?

Medical technology diffusion and its effect on the modern hospital and on the rising costs of medical care is an issue which receives considerable attention from economists and policy analysts. In this paper a different approach is used to understand this phenomenon. We present the decision of a single hospital, whether or not to adopt an advanced technology system, using the concept of a noncooperative, nonzero sum game. Such presentation provides us with more insight on the conflict in which hospitals find themselves; the "catch" which pushes them to purchase more and more sophisticated and expensive technology in the hope that they will be able to successfully compete with other hospitals. The situation is further complicated by the existence of another "hidden" player--society, whose goals may differ from those of any individual hospital and even from the collective interests of the hospital sector. Possible conflicts that may exist and suggested solutions for each participant are presented and their policy implication are discussed.     

Balancing Conflicts of Interest when Employing Spouses

Employees can be put in situations where they are required to make decisions on behalf of the organization as part of their job duties. In these situations, organizations desire that employees make these decisions in the organization’s best interest. In an attempt to ensure that decisions are made in the best interest of the organization, some organizations implement anti-nepotism policies and no spouse rules. While the intent is to minimize conflicts of interest among employees, these policies exact costs to organizations. The present paper examines the costs and benefits of these types of policies, as well as the effects of family-friendly benefits, on organizations. The examination is further laid out in terms of four examples of how these policies and rules can be reframed into conflict of interest policies, allowing organizations to fully experience the benefits of increasing the size of the labor pool by being able to consider spouses and family members as potential applicants, while minimizing conflicts of interest. Finally, recommendations concerning the use of focused conflict of interest policies are made.

A social procedural approach to the Pareto optimization problematique: Part II. Institutionalized procedures and their limitations

In the previous article (Part I) we briefly introduced the Pareto problematique, selective criticism of it, and Generalized Game Theory’s (GGT) approach to the Pareto optimization problematique. GGT stresses the embeddedness and multilevel character of social games; its application to optimization problems leads to a conceptualization of two-phase societal procedures to achieve agreements for change—or, conversely, maintaining—states of the world. In this part two general types of games are distinguished analytically in the 2-phase process: on the one hand, elementary strategic games take place among agents in the first phase in diverse social settings, and, on the other hand, regulative conflict resolution or collective improvement games are organized as procedures in the second phase. Many elementary strategic games end in stalemates, difficult-to-resolve conflicts, and non-optimal outcomes such as occur in collective action or prisoner dilemma type games. This type of situation is the point of departure for the activation of a meta-game regulatory procedure for resolving stalemates, conflicts, and non-optimal states in order to accomplish societal improvements and efficiencies. In a word, the paper identifies and models institutionalized regulatory mechanisms that resolve conflicts, inefficient or non-optimal states, and disequilibria; and lead thereby to solution or resolution of Pareto optimization problems in the face of general non-unanimity or conflict about the outcomes. In addition, the article present more detailed models of the adjudication, negotiation, and democratic procedures introduced in the previous article and discusses their legitimacy bases, the limits of such societal procedures, and the accomplishment of societal efficiencies through the procedures.     

供应链管理中的冲突分析及其协调

供应链管理中冲突不断,文中研究了冲突的产生受到合作伙伴利益依赖、立场差异和环境不确定三大因素的影响。冲突难以消除,提出了供应链冲突协调的观点,将冲突控制在适度范围内,并利用冲突激励供应链关系的健康发展。     

Conflict of Interest in Policing and the Public Sector

Abstract

Conflicts of interest are a key factor in the contemporary decline of trust in government and public institutions, eroding public trust in government and democratic systems. Drawing on two unique empirical studies involving policing and the broader public sector, this paper explores the meaning and dimensions of conflict of interest by examining public complaints about conflict of interest and providing distinctive insights into the nature of conflict of interest as a problem for public sector ethics. The paper analyses and explores appropriate regulatory and management approaches for conflict of interest, focusing on three elements: (1) dealing with private interests that are identifiably problematic in the way they clash with the duties of public officials; (2) managing conflicts as they arise in the course of public sector work (manifested in preferential and adverse treatment, and other problematic areas); and (3) developing ethical and accountable organisational cultures. It is concluded that effective and meaningful public sector ethics in the pursuit of the public interest must be based on an ethos of social accountability and a commitment to prioritise the public interest in both fact and appearance.     

The conflict mitigating effects of trade in the India-Pakistan case

We examine whether greater inter-state trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower belligerence between India and Pakistan, beginning with a theoretical model covering the opportunity costs of conflict in terms of trade losses and security spending, as well as the costs of making concessions to rivals. Conflict between the two nations is best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, integration with rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, democracy orientation and population are simultaneously considered. Our empirical investigation based on time series econometrics from 1950 to 2005 suggests that reduced bilateral trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing. Globalization, or a greater openness to international trade with the rest of the world, is the most significant driver of a liberal peace, rather than a common democratic orientation.     

我国城市规划冲突管理机制的缺陷——以上海市春申高压线事件为例

以上海春申高压线事件为例,剖析我国城市规划冲突管理机制的缺陷,指出该事件从最初的意见对立演化为一定规模的群体性冲突行为,与政府对规划冲突的忽视和冲突事件处理的行政化倾向密切相关。传统的规划冲突管理机制存在决策内部化和管理行政化的严重缺陷,造成纠错功能的缺失和风险管理功能的失灵。在社会利益多元化和法治意识增强的社会背景下,必须进行城市规划冲突管理机制的改革。     

平面交叉口机非冲突模糊神经网络模型的研究

基于机非冲突技术,根据冲突数量和严重程度采用模糊聚类法将甘家口交叉口冲突区分成了3类;选取冲突级别较为严重的冲突点—直行自行车与相邻车道的右转机动车的冲突为研究对象,从自行车和右转机动车的运行特性、违章行驶行为、交通环境等方面深入地分析交叉口引起冲突的安全因素;从安全工程学的角度,以交叉口交通冲突为事故树的起点建立平面交叉口机非冲突事故树,并对其进行定性定量分析;根据事故树分析结果,把事故树的最小割集作为输入样本建立平面交叉口机非冲突模糊神经网络模型,用Matlab编程实现了对冲突和引起冲突的各原因间关系的预测,最后进行实例验证表明该模型可以较好地分析、预测和评价引起平面交叉口机-非冲突的主要原因。     

Effect of armed conflicts on humanitarian operations: Total factor productivity and efficiency of rural hospitals

We study an important but widely neglected topic in humanitarian operations: armed conflicts. Specifically, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of armed conflicts on the operational performance of first-layer response organizations. Using as a case study the Colombian conflict we investigate the effect of conflict on public rural hospitals' (i) total factor productivity, (ii) efficiency and (iii) efficiency variability. The panel data set (2007–2011) used in this study includes information at the hospital level for 163 hospitals and qualitative data collected from interviews with medical staff from the Colombian Ministry of Health and hospitals in different conflict zones. Our results indicate that armed conflict has a positive effect on total factor productivity, while it has a negative impact on hospital efficiency, and interestingly that efficiency and total factor productivity both increase in post conflict. Finally, the results show that efficiency variability is higher in peace and post-conflict hospitals and lower in medium and severe-conflict hospitals. These results have operations management implications and opportunities for future research related to sourcing decisions, supply chain and workforce flexibility, behavioral impacts on the workforce, and humanitarian response to conflicts.     

The Mendacity of Reconciliation in an Age of Resentment

The political ideal of reconciliation has gained increased prominence in recent decades, in part due to political experiments such as the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission and other formal or informal truth or reconciliation processes. Here, I argue that there is a fundamental mendacity to reconciliation, given stubborn asymmetries of social power and disrespect. Reconciliation as an ideal carries an impetus towards resolution that covers over the necessary role that conflict plays in political struggles—including the role that conflict plays within struggles for reconciliation. Nevertheless, despite the mendacity of reconciliation, its meaning still holds political value. Reconciliation implies an orientation towards social repair, which even the strongest critics of reconciliation cannot bring themselves to reject. Some lies are worse than others, and some lies might be noble or necessary. Reconciliation is the latter—a fiction that is less pernicious than its absence. In this light, the task is to locate means of political reconciliation that do not obscure the conflicts and asymmetries of social life but enable social actors to face up to these conflicts and to discover novel ways to repair the damage that they can do.     

A strategic analysis of network reliability

Abstract. We consider a non-cooperative model of information networks where communication is costly and not fully reliable. We examine the nature of Nash networks and efficient networks. We find that if the society is large, and link formation costs are moderate, Nash networks as well as efficient networks will be ‘super-connected’ i.e. every link is redundant in the sense that the network remains connected even after the link is deleted. This contrasts with the properties of a deterministic model of information decay, where Nash networks typically involve unique paths between agents. We also find that if costs are very low or very high, or if links are highly reliable then there is virtually no conflict between efficiency and stability. However, for intermediate values of costs and link reliability, Nash networks may be underconnected relative to the social optimum.     

A Globalized Conflict: European Anti-Jewish Violence during the Second Intifada

The globalization of the Arab–Israeli conflict during the period of the second intifada against Israel (from the autumn 2000 through at least the spring of 2005) has fostered anti-Jewish violence in Europe and throughout the world. With this globalized conflict as a context, this paper explores the effects of four explanatory factors on counts of anti-Jewish violence in 10 European countries. These factors are the relative sizes of a country’s Jewish and Muslim populations; how interpretations of the events in the Middle East mobilize the perpetrators; the unresponsiveness of bystanders; and the ambivalence of ordinary Europeans. Poisson multilevel models of the effects of these social structural and attitudinal variables suggest that all four factors contribute to violence. The violence counts include major attacks like shootings, knifings, bombings, and arson; and major violent incidents like vandalism and physical aggression without the use of a weapon. The views expressed in this paper are my own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of any organization to which I may be affiliated. I wish to thank Greg Maney and other reviewers of earlier versions of this paper for their helpful comments and Philip Gibbs of the SAS Institute for clarifying aspects of GLIMMIX.     

Expert product reviews and conflict of interest

Many firms that produce expert product reviews benefit from increased sales of the products they review, resulting in a conflict of interest. We evaluate expert product reviews from a video game magazine owned by a game retailer. We find evidence of review inflation for lower‐quality games and in periods shortly following the release of a game's corresponding hardware. These results are consistent with theoretical predictions for a firm that optimizes the trade‐off between sales revenue and the reputational costs associated with biasing reviews.     

ASSESSING THE OLYMPIC GAMES: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT AND BEYOND

This study reviews the literature on the evaluation of the Olympic Games, within the broader framework of their significance as cultural assets and opportunities for endogenous growth and sustainable development of the host city. The study reviews the main approaches to the economic assessment of the Games, from the point of view of the underlying economic concepts and methodologies, as well as of the empirical results obtained. It focuses on the effects that are measured and on those, which even though important, are generally neglected. The methodologies utilized for the quantitative assessments of the Games are reviewed with special emphasis on impact and cost–benefit analysis, both on ex ante and ex post basis. The studies surveyed are analysed from the point of view of different sets of effects on the host city, and for a limited number of cases, on the host country. While the major focus is on hosting the Summer Olympics, some attention is also paid to the bidding cities, the Winter Olympics and the Paralympics. The general findings appear to be controversial with some hints of positive overall effects, but also with a well‐documented tendency to exaggerate the benefits and underestimate the costs of holding the Games in the ex ante versus the ex post studies. The survey finally suggests that ex post cross‐country econometric studies tend to catch sizable differential and persistent benefits ignored by individual studies, especially on macroeconomic and trade variables.     

Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey

Previous research [Verbrugge, Randal, 2008a. The puzzling divergence of aggregate rents and user costs, 1980–2004. The Review of Income and Wealth 54(4), 671–699] demonstrated that housing rents and ex ante user costs diverge markedly for extended periods of time, a finding with profound implications for income and inflation measurement. But the primary data sources in that study were various indexes, based upon largely disjoint data sources, constructed using different aggregation techniques, and each subject to various criticisms. This raised doubts about the quality of the comparison. The relationship between user costs and rents might well be much tighter at the micro level; after all, house prices and rents (and their growth rates) can vary dramatically within cities, and rents are notoriously sticky. Furthermore, the use of indexes precludes both cross-sectional and dollar cost comparisons. In this study, we use Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey (CE) data to examine the relationship between user costs and rents at the individual unit-level, in dollars, using unit-level information on house value, rent, taxes, and the like. This allows us to accurately estimate unit-specific user costs and to control for unobservables like structure and neighborhood quality. We also make the point that in theory, after-tax user costs should equal net rent, i.e., expected rental income, rather than gross rent.Our findings are striking. In keeping with most previous research, we find tremendous divergence between conventional measures of user costs and net rents, thus ruling out index construction errors as a possible explanation. This divergence does not result from a faulty rent measure: we find that reported rents are sensible, in that they move similarly to official rent indexes, and are not simply out-of-pocket expenses. Instead, and most perplexing, we find a surprisingly close correspondence between net rents and a particular estimate of user costs, one implicitly assuming zero transactions costs and constructed using an appreciation measure that is both theoretically suspect and empirically a poor predictor of actual appreciation.