浅析欧洲主权债务危机

本文认为欧债危机成因复杂，但其根本原因归结干内、外两方面。内因如民众内部压力、国家产业结构缺陷；外因如福利社会制度、单一的欧元体系及欧元区财政政策不当等。文章认为此次危机如果处理得当，反而加速了欧洲一体化进程。     

中欧关系要以经贸关系为基石

我谈一下欧债危机的影响以及进一步发展中欧经贸关系的考量。 中欧经贸领域的合作有很多机遇 现在欧债危机的高峰已经过去了,但我想再说一点,欧洲部分国家的主权债务危机并不是欧元的危机,也不是欧元区的危机,更不会导致欧元区的解体或者是欧盟的解体。我们相信,欧盟在区域经济一体化的路上还会进一步发展。     

中欧关系要以经贸关系为基石

我谈一下欧债危机的影响以及进一步发展中欧经贸关系的考量。中欧经贸领域的合作有很多机遇现在欧债危机的高峰已经过去了,但我想再说一点,欧洲部分国家的主权债务危机并不是欧元的危机,也不是欧元区的危机,更不会导致欧元区的解体或者是欧盟的解体。我们相信,欧盟在区域经济一体化的路上还会进一步发展。同时,欧洲部分国家的主权债务危机也不同于华尔街的金融危机以及进而引发的经济危机。但欧洲部     

欧元债券：最后的“解药”

尽管欧盟和欧元区国家的领导人,挖空心思试图缓解主权债务危机,但这一金融病魔依然死死折磨着欧洲经济。时至今日,不仅希腊等欧元区外围国家险象环生,而且诸如意大利等欧元区核心成员国也是警报不断。无奈之下,欧洲人急中生智,试图推出欧元债券以对欧债危机作一个了断。然而,由于很难得到欧洲国家的一致睦认同,加之缺少必要的制度和技术支...     

“欧猪五国”主权债务危机及欧元发展前景

正当全球经济刚刚走出百年一遇的金融危机而进入复苏之际,从希腊开始的欧洲主权债务危机又给世界经济以巨大冲击。本文以"欧猪五国"为切入点,从危机国家自身经济结构、欧元体制和外部冲击三方面探讨"欧猪五国"债务危机发生的原因,并分析其对"欧猪五国"发展、欧元区生存、欧盟一体化进程和全球经济复苏所产生的影响。通过各方救助,目前"欧猪五国"的主权债务危机已有所缓解,断言危机国家将退出欧元区并因此而最终导致欧元崩溃缺乏根据,但这些国家要重新达到欧元区财政趋同标准必须经过痛苦的调整过程。     

欧债危机与福利制度的反思

当前弥漫于欧洲多个国家的债务危机是多种原因导致的结果。文章指出,福利制度是导致欧债危机的重要原因,过高的福利开支致使经济乏力的欧洲各国财政收支严重失衡,削减福利遭到民众的强烈反对。作为社会关系和社会矛盾调节手段的福利制度有其存在的必要性,但福利开支过高会影响经济发展。文章认为,福利开支应当遵循适度救助社会最贫困阶层、不影响经济增长的可持续性等原则,在经济增长与福利制度之间保持以经济增长为主题的动态平衡。     

欧央行货币供应与欧元区经济发展关系研究——基于VAR模型

欧央行自成立以来,先后历经欧元疲软、金融危机、欧债危机三大时期,为保持欧元区经济平稳高速发展,欧央行先后制定一揽子货币政策。文章基于2000~2016年相关数据,对欧央行货币政策的中介指标(货币供应量)与欧元区经济发展指标间的关系做实证研究,发现欧央行货币供应量与欧元区经济发展间存在长期、稳定的正相关关系;欧央行货币供应量与欧元区经济发展之间互为格兰杰原因。     

中国不会重蹈欧债危机覆辙

当前欧债危机成为国内外经济界关注的焦点，并且引起了许多人对中国也会出现债务危机的恐慌。本文剖析了欧债危机爆发的深层次原因，指出中国有着稳固的财力基础，不存在欧元区国家高福利重负、产业空心化等问题，认为中国不会重蹈欧洲主权债务危机的覆辙。     

2012年国际金融形势评论

2012年欧洲债务状况继续恶化,希腊、西班牙、意大利、塞浦路斯等国深陷债务危机泥潭,欧元区第四大经济体西班牙更是成为欧债危机焦点国家     

欧元区体制缺陷对成员国债务的影响及对欧债危机的治理分析

目前，欧债危机愈演愈烈，对世界经济复苏产生严重影响。该文从欧元区的体制缺陷入手分析其对欧债危机的影响，并提出欧债危机的治理措施，即先进行欧元区经济社会结构的改革，然后进行财政一体化改革。     

欧洲主权债务危机的内生性与外生性研究

南欧成员国社会福利过度造成的财政支出扩张与经济停滞导致的财政收入收缩是欧洲主权债务危机的内生性成因。美国因素是欧洲主权债务危机的重要外生性解释变量。美国试图通过债务危机打压欧元是为了巩固美元的全球霸权。即使欧洲主权债务危机在短期内对于欧元产生了一定的冲击,但在长期仍有可能造就一个更强大的欧元。     

欧洲主权债务危机的影响机理分析

本文从欧元区大国与小国的实体经济发展不对称、加入欧元区后宏观经济指标变化以及财政政策制定不合理三方面,就欧元区经济内部不对称性导致债务危机的演变过程和影响机理做详尽阐述。     

Government Debt Denomination Policies Before and After the EMU Advent

Through a cost-minimizing approach, this paper derives joint indicators to assess the efficiency of the mix of sovereign debt currencies between the countries belonging to the European Monetary Union (EMU). This theoretical insight enables us to explain why and how the introduction of the euro and the adoption of a common monetary policy may have led to significant changes in debt structure among EMU members, notably in favor of further euro-denominated debt. The interplay of intrinsic and strategic variables yields stylized facts that are consistent with country-specific empirical evidence. Following the sovereign debt crisis, we further emphasize the value-added of a coordinated debt issuance policy among EMU countries.     

淮南为橘淮北为枳：高福利模式在南北欧国家的实施效果差异及对中国的启示

2008年爆发的全球金融危机以及随后的欧洲主权债务危机表明,同样是高福利国家,北欧国家保持着较高的经济增长率、较低的失业率以及相对健康的财政状况,而希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等南欧国家却陷入了空前的经济危机和社会危机之中。分析其中原因,有社会信任感差异很大。导致税收和社保制度的执行效果不同;社会保障支出结构失调,导致高福利制度依然未能缓解南欧国家的收入分配悬殊;超越财政支付能力的社保支出规模、教育与就业政策出现偏差以及规模庞大的地下经济和盛行的家庭养老模式等都严重制约社会保障制度发挥其应有的职能。这些教训为我国社保制度的完善提供了很好的借鉴。     

超越紧缩——探索欧洲主权债务危机的终结之道

2009年希腊债务危机拉开了欧洲主权债务危机的帷幕,并将全球金融市场置于危险的境地,至今仍无见底迹象且呈现扩散的趋势。欧洲主权债务危机爆发的根源在于欧元区成员国之间的竞争力失衡,欧元区政策框架存在制度性缺陷使得问题进一步加剧。欧元区领导人推出一整套危机永久解决机制,然而此方案并未触及欧元区深层次的问题,距离债务危机的永久解决还有很长的路要走。危机的最终解决已经超越了纯粹的经济学范畴,它将取决于各国的政治决心和魄力以及欧洲精神的复兴,反思欧洲现有的经济与社会发展模式,寻求经济增长的新路径。     

Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. A major portfolio shift would significantly affect exchange rates and the status of the dollar as the dominant international currency. We develop a dynamic mean-variance optimization framework with portfolio rebalancing costs to estimate optimal portfolio weights among the main international currencies. Making various assumptions on expected currency returns and the variance–covariance structure, we assess how the euro has changed this allocation. We then perform simulations for the optimal currency allocations of four large emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), adding constraints that reflect a central bank's desire to hold a sizable portion of its portfolio in the currencies of its peg, its foreign debt and its international trade. Our main results are: (i) The optimizer can match the large share of the US dollar in reserves, when the dollar is the reference (risk-free) currency. (ii) The optimum portfolios show a much lower weight for the euro than is observed. This suggests that the euro may already enjoy an enhanced role as an international reserve currency (“punching above its weight”). (iii) Growth in issuance of euro-denominated securities, a rise in euro zone trade with key emerging markets, and increased use of the euro as a currency peg, would all work towards raising the optimal euro shares, with the last factor being quantitatively the most important. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 508–547.     

Effect of exchange rate return on volatility spill-over across trading regions

This paper examines the effect of realized exchange rate returns on the volatility spill-over between the euro–US dollar and US dollar–yen currency pairs across the five trading regions: Asia, Asia–Europe overlap, Europe, Europe–America overlap and America. Modelling the interaction between returns and volatility in an autoregressive five-equation system, we find evidence that depreciation of the US dollar against the yen has a greater impact on the US dollar–yen volatility spill-over than appreciation in the subprime crisis period. Appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar against the euro does not appear to have an asymmetric effect on the euro–US dollar volatility spill-over. Our results support the notion that the yen may have been preferred to the euro as a ‘safe-haven’ currency relative to the US dollar during the subprime crisis period.     

希腊主权债务危机:根源、影响和启示

为应对全球金融危机影响,2009年包括希腊在内的全球绝大多数国家均实施了积极的财政政策,希腊财政赤字急剧攀升,引发金融市场对其未来偿债能力担忧,由此产生了希腊主权债务危机问题。预计在欧元区其他国家以及欧盟的帮助下,希腊尚不会真正发生违约事件,但主权债务危机的影响短期内难以消除,主要发达经济体主权债务问题甚至有可能引发下一轮全球性危机。对中国而言,地方政府隐性债务问题应引起高度重视。     

The Euro and the Dollar, 1998

There is no immediate prospect for the euro to become an anchor currency outside Central Europe and the Mediterranean. Still, a successful euro could deepen European financial markets and attract more international investment to the euro area. The prospect of substantial portfolio shifts into the euro, however, does not justify forecasts that the new currency will appreciate against the dollar over an extended time horizon. Liability managers outside the euro area should also find the enhanced liquidity and improved diversification possibilities of euro-denominated debt attractive.