货币政策工具与中介目标选择：基于公开市场操作的研究

利率和货币量哪个更适合作为货币政策中介目标是一个很有争议的问题。目前许多文献对这个问题的研究并不涉及货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间的关系。这样的研究隐含了一个前提,即货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间存在明确的、稳定的关系,从而保证利率目标或者货币量是可控的。以公开市场操作为对象,本文研究表明,公开市场操作和货币量之间确实存在确定的关系,而和利率之间的关系是不确定的;导致利率和公开市场操作关系不确定的主要原因是IS曲线的斜率是不确定的。同时,对现阶段中国IS曲线斜率稳定性的实证研究表明,其斜率是不稳定的,因此,利率不适合作为货币政策中介目标。     

Financial profiles and the disclosure of expenditures for socially responsible purposes

Recently the relationship between “socially responsible” activities and the financial performance of corporations has received attention in the business literature. Most studies have focused on the market reaction of shareholders to the disclosure of both monetary and nonmonetary corporate contributions relating to pollution control, employee welfare, affirmative action, and other activities deemed to be in the public interest. Results of this research have been mixed, with some authors finding favorable market response to socially responsible actions, and others finding no difference between the market performance of more and less responsible firms. The purpose of this paper is to examine financial performance and socially responsible activities from a different perspective. Specifically, it examines the relationship between the disclosure of monetary expenditures for various social initiatives and composite financial accounting profiles of disclosing and nondisclosing firms. Using two-group discriminant analysis, the authors conclude that management tends to disclose monetary expenditures for these generally nonproductive purposes at times when the financial statements of the firm otherwise look favorable to shareholders. Such disclosure in a sample of Fortune 500 firms in 1976 and 1977 was clearly not unrelated to financial performance, and neither did it appear to occur in order to explain relatively poor financial statements.     

A short-run analysis of the effects of portfolio realignments due to money market innovations

This paper develops a model of the financial sector that includes two highly liquid assets. These assets can be utilized as transaction balances, one of which pays a market determined rate of interest. The paper relates several recent money market innovations to this analytic framework. The model is then used to examine the effects on interest rates and monetary aggregates of a shift into the interest paying transaction asset. These effects are found to be highly dependent on the strategy of monetary control pursued by the central bank.     

资源稀缺、技术冲击与风险投资退出时机

通过建立风险投资退出时机选择模型,运用2004~2011年中国风险投资退出的季度数据考察了技术冲击和市场利率等因素变化对风险投资退出时机的影响。研究发现：（1）资源稀缺的程度与风险投资退出时机的选择有着非常紧密的联系;（2）市场利率的变化对风险投资的退出行为的影响具有不对称性：市场利率下降可能会导致风险投资加速退出质量较差的风险企业,同时却更长时间地持有质量较好的风险企业;（3）技术进步会增加风险企业的数量,提高风险投资市场上风险企业的平均质量,加速风险投资退出。     

The Interrelationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices-The Case of China

ABSTRACT

Prior studies of industrialized countries have found that a definite relationship exists between the stock market returns and macroeconomic variables such as inflation and real output. This paper investigates the effects of changes in the consumer price index on industrial production and stock market returns for China. Six different types of Chinese shares are examined for the period 1994–1998. The results show a very significant positive relationship between inflation and real output. A positive and significant association is found between stock returns and real output in current periods. Inflation seems to have no impact on Chinese real stock returns. These relationships all hold for “B” shares, “H” shares and red chips. China's “A” share returns seem not to be impacted by either changes in domestic inflation or real industrial production.     

Non‐Tradable Share Reform,Liquidity, and Stock Returns in China

This article studies the influence of the non‐tradable share reform in the cross‐section of stock returns in China. Prior research has generally neglected this important development in the Chinese stock market. We find that the firm‐specific illiquidity measures that reflect direct transaction costs, price impact and difficulties in trading immediacy, exhibit a positive and significant relationship with stock returns. These effects are particularly pronounced after the non‐tradable share reform. Furthermore, in the post‐reform era, portfolios with high illiquidity (i.e. high relative bid–ask spread, high Amihud illiquidity, low Amivest liquidity ratio) significantly outperform portfolios with low illiquidity, controlling for size, and book‐to‐market effects.     

利率、股票价格与货币政策传导

利率与股票价格的互动关系是货币政策通过股票市场途径传导的重要环节。通过基于VAR的格兰杰因果检验和方差分解等技术,实证分析我国利率变动与股票价格的相互关系,结果表明,利率与股票价格在长期中存在均衡关系,利率变动是股票价格变动的格兰杰原因,其影响逐步增大,并在第四期以后稳定在28·6%;而股票价格对利率的影响较小,统计上不表现为利率变动的格兰杰原因。这说明我国金融市场具有分割性,货币政策通过股票市场途径的传导在上游是通畅的。     

融资约束、过度投资与现金流的价格敏感性

已有研究证实了盈余管理、会计稳健性以及边际投资收益递减规律均可能影响应计成分的持续性,揭示了资本市场对盈余的应计成分不存在“功能锁定”现象,但鲜有研究关注盈余的现金流成分与股价关系的影响因素。文章发现,过度投资会显著地降低现金流的价格敏感性,且对于现金持有水平高及融资约束程度高的公司,过度投资对现金流价格敏感性的影响更为显著。文章的研究结论一方面从经营活动现金流的价格敏感性视角揭示了过度投资的负面经济后果,另一方面也证实了市场对经营活动现金流同样不存在“功能锁定”现象。     

我国股票资产价格与通货膨胀关系的研究

货币政策是否应该干预股票资产价格的波动,这是一个广受关注且富有争议的问题.这一问题的关键因素在于正确判断通货膨胀与股票资产价格的关联性.目前,股票收益率与通货膨胀之间存在四种相关关系,即正相关、负相关、不确定以及不相关.我国的资本市场成立较晚,研究股票收益率与通胀率之间关系的成果非常少.所以从我国沪深两市股指与通货膨胀走势、沪深两市股指波动区间、波动频率与通货膨胀间的关系,以及我国沪深两市股票市盈率与通货膨胀关系描述等三方面来揭示股票资产定价与通货膨胀间的关系,为全面认识我国证券市场与通胀间的关系提供实事依据.     

两岸三地利率联系及其对货币统一的含义

文章运用多变量协整检验方法对两岸三地的利率联系进行了检验。文章对政策性利率和货币市场利率做了区分,用前者分析两岸三地货币政策的趋同程度,用后者分析两岸三地金融市场之间的联系。同时,本文也考虑了美国与日本的货币政策和金融市场对两岸三地可能存在的影响。实证分析结果是:总体上,两岸三地的政策性利率和货币市场利率均存在长期均衡关系;政策性利率相对于区外保持一定的独立性,从长期趋势看,香港与大陆的利率联系比与美国的联系更为紧密,但是台湾地区还没有表现出这样的趋势;货币市场利率对区外经济体仍有较大的依赖性,区内联系相对较弱,尤其大陆与台湾地区之间。     

Credibility of corporate announcements and market reaction: evidence from Canadian share repurchase programs

Do market participants evaluate the credibility of a firm's share repurchase announcement based on the firm's share repurchase history? Using a sample of 1,507 share repurchase programs for firms listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange from 1994 to 2005, we find that 69% of firms fail to acquire the target number of shares specified at announcement and many firms fail to repurchase any shares. We develop credibility indices and find a positive relationship between current announcement abnormal returns and completion credibility of previous announcements. We conclude that the market prices completion credibility of past share repurchase announcements in reacting to current repurchase announcements. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical Evidence on the Relationship Between Marketing Effort and Deposit Share in the Retail Banking Industry

This research examines the relationship between de- posit share and the various marketin effort components utilized in retail banking. This exploratory wor f focuses on one market in an effort to provide insight and direction for future research. The find- ings suggest that funds expended on distribution have the greatest impact on deposit share followed by expenditures on promotion and service, respectively. Additionally, ev~dence was found to support the argument of increasing returns to scale.     

借鉴美国经验规范和发展我国货币市场基金

美国货币市场发达的主要原因在于可供交易的货币市场工具丰富,结构层次化、利率市场化,参与广泛等。我国货币市场规模小、品种单一,市场基础设施不完善,缺少相应的组织结构和制度保障,与美国货币市场化相去甚远。应借鉴美国的经验发展我国货币市场基金,加强货币市场基础设施建设,创新金融产品,加强货币市场基金风险管理,真正发挥货币市场基金作为现金管理工具的功能。     

FX Market Returns and Their Relationship to Investor Fear

This note examines the relationship between changes in levels of investor fear (measured by the implied volatility index) and foreign exchange market returns. Our empirical results indicate a negative relationship between daily returns on high‐interest rate (investing) currencies and changes in the implied volatility index, while the association is positive for low‐interest rate (funding) currencies. That is, investing (funding) currencies tends to depreciate (appreciate) when investor fear increases. A sequential breakpoint test identifies a significant change in this relationship in the period following the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, and another in 2012 following the resolution of the European sovereign debt crisis, which suggests that the relationship is linked to financial system liquidity. During the crisis period, currency returns are much more sensitive to changes in investor fear, and this is particularly so for funding currencies that are perceived to present a safe‐haven. The results have important implications for international finance, and those looking to speculate via the carry trade.     

Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework

China's monetary policy framework has evolved considerably in the past two decades, increasingly moving from using quantity-based instruments and targets to using price-based instruments and targets. This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in China by examining the influence of monetary policy on market interest rates using an event-study approach. We find that the effectiveness of price-based instruments in impacting market interest rates increases over time, and that price-based instruments are as effective as quantity instruments during the period since the completion of interest rates liberalization. Furthermore, central bank communications, an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy, affect medium- and long-term market interest rates. Our findings are robust to the use of an alternative measure of monetary policy surprise and an alternative estimation method.     

The conditional relationship between beta and returns: recent evidence from international stock markets

The risk–return relationship is one of the fundamental concepts in finance that is most important to investors and portfolio managers. Finance theory argues that the beta or systematic risk is the only relevant risk measure for investors. However, many studies have showed that betas and returns are not related empirically, no matter in domestic markets or in international stock markets. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and returns in international stock markets for the period from January 1991 to December 2000. After recognizing the fact that while expected returns are always positive, realized returns could be positive or negative, we find a significant positive relationship between beta and returns in up market periods (positive market excess returns) but a significant negative relationship in down market periods (negative market excess returns). The results are robust for both monthly and weekly returns and for two different proxies of the world market portfolio. Our findings indicate that beta is still a useful risk measure for portfolio managers in making optimal investment decisions.     

Bitcoin price growth and Indonesia's monetary system

Concerned by the volatility of Bitcoin price growth (BPG), Bank Indonesia—Indonesia's central bank—discourages trading cryptocurrencies. We examine the relationship between Bitcoin price growth (BPG) and Indonesia's monetary aggregates (inflation, real exchange rate, and money velocity). In doing so, we develop the conceptual link between Bitcoin and monetary aggregates. We find strong and robust evidence that BPG leads to inflation growth, currency appreciation, and a reduction in money velocity. Our results have policy implications for other central banks in terms of achieving stability of the monetary system if BPG is indeed a concern for those countries.     

Monetary policy and the yield curve in an emerging market: the Greek case

This paper explores the impact of monetary policy actions on the nominal term yield curve in the Greek money market. Essentially, the monetary transmission mechanism is under scrutiny in testing monetary policy effectiveness. We focus on the dynamic inter-relationship between the short-term monetary policy instrument (Overnight rate) and market rates across the term structure. The findings are in accordance with the fact that Expectations Hypothesis monetary policy actions have a significant impact on all market rates; however, the impact is decreasing monotonically with maturity of the interest rate.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and financial markets in Central Europe: Macroeconomic measures and international policy spillovers

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy announcements on financial markets in three Central European economies: Czechia, Hungary, and Poland (CE–3). We focus on the unprecedented stabilisation policies implemented from March to December 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, including unconventional monetary measures and large stimulus programs. Detailed categories of monetary and fiscal measures are introduced into vector autoregressions with exogenous regressors and dynamic conditional correlations, which we estimate using daily data. This allows us to control for policy spillovers from abroad, as well as global risk factors and pandemic-related variables. We find that, in general, macroeconomic policy measures implemented in the CE–3 countries played an important role in stabilising financial markets during the pandemic. We uncover several notable patterns in the reaction of markets to anti-crisis measures across the region. The impact of the monetary policy announcements on 10-year sovereign bond yields was more substantial than on stock market returns and exchange rate returns. The communication of the unconventional tools proved effective in lowering the bond yields. Interestingly, we document that the effects of non-standard measures for some variables, such as the exchange rate, can be qualitatively different from those resulting from a conventional monetary expansion. Even though the domestic monetary events became more important than the fiscal ones, the latter proved relevant for financial market returns, especially when large-scale immediate fiscal measures and tax deferrals were introduced. We also show that the CE–3 economies were subject to the cross-border transmission of policy announcement effects from the Euro Area and the US, although the magnitude of these effects was smaller than expected and varied across the CE–3 countries.     

Effects of monetary policy news on financial assets: Evidence from Brazil on a bivariate VAR-GARCH model (2006–17)

The impact of news releases related to the inflation targeting regime on the financial market is analyzed by estimating a bivariate VAR GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model. We use daily data, from January 2006 to May 2017, of stock prices index (IBOVESPA), exchange rate (BRL/USD) and interbank deposit rate (DI360). We developed a positive and negative news index to measure the impact of news releases based on Caporale et al. (2016) and Caporale et al. (2018). Although the literature on the subject is vast, this paper fills relevant gaps in three ways. First, we investigate the bidirectional relationship between monetary policy related news releases and the behavior of asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis in Brazil. Second, we consider the relationship between the second moments of the variables of interest, using the conditional volatility as a proxy for uncertainty. Third, we provide a time series approach to measure the effect of macroeconomic related news releases on financial asset returns. The results indicate there are mean spread effects from news for the exchange rate and the Brazilian stock index: (i) the GARCH-in-mean parameter is statistically significant for positive and the difference of news for the DI360; (ii) monetary policy and external shocks are statiscally significant as expected with exception of the external shocks for the Brazilian stock index; and (iii) there are volatility spillovers and changes of this volatility after the crisis for stock index and DI360.