依法监管信用社建立金融安全区

人行南阳市中心支行以把辖区建成金融安全区为目标，从辖区工作实际出发，重点加强对城乡信用社的监管，促进了城乡信用社的改革和发展，发挥了城乡信用社支持地方经济建设的作用，取得了良好的社会效益和经济效益。切实履行职责建立信用社监管工作运行机制南阳市城乡信用...     

我国农村信用社改革成效评析

本轮农村信用社改革彰显了我国合作金融组织的商业化发展趋势，基本明晰了信用社的产权关系，实现了信用社的财务重组，促进其加大了支农力度，同时，建立了合作金融机构新的监督管理体制。但改革没有解决信用社所有的问题。农村金融长期积累的问题必须通过进一步的深化改革来解决。     

对改进城乡信用社结算工作的思考

当前，城乡信用社存在的结算渠道不畅、可供选用的支付方式过少，是制约其经营和业务发展的重要因素，而努力改进城乡信用社结算工作，是促进我国城乡经济发展和提高城乡中、小合作金融机构市场竞争能力的一个不容忽视的问题。     

关于陕西省城乡信用社贷款定价情况的调查报告

逐步放开城乡信用社贷款利率上限将是我国利率市场化进程中的关键一步.本文通过对陕西省城乡信用社贷款定价现状的调查和研究,提出放开城乡信用社贷款利率上限应具备的条件,对放开城乡信用社贷款定价上限进行了分析.     

加强城乡信用社金融监管 努力防范和化解经营风险

加强城乡信用社金融监管努力防范和化解经营风险□中国人民银行福建省副行长倪健鹤随着社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立和金融体制改革的不断深化，城乡信用社长期积累的经营风险逐步暴露。防范和化解城乡信用社经营风险已成为当前人民银行金融监管的重要工作。防范和化解...     

金融安全萄关键是城乡信用社

金融安全区的关键是城乡信用社。化解城乡信用社风险除信用社自身加强防化风险力度外，还须依赖政策的优惠、采取多种方式，对不良信贷资产予以处置。     

合作金融改革与规范

一、目前对合作金融认识上的不足和合作金融存在的问题 城乡信用社自八十年代以来特别是随着近几年金融体制改革以来得到了很大发展。但笔者认为,严格地讲起来,在我国城乡信用社并没有发展成为真正意义上的合作金融组织。城市信用社按国家银行模式来办,农村信用社实质上也是作为国家银行的基层机构而存在,合作金融未完全按合作制性质来运作,主要表现为：     

扩大贷款利率浮动区间对金融机构和企业影响的调查

2004年10月29日，金融机构贷款利率上限（城乡信用社除外）和存款利率下限放开，标志着我国利率市场化改革步入新阶段。为调查了解贷款利率浮动区间扩大对金融机构和企业的影响，近期人行成都分行组织开展了专题调查。调查主要采取召开金融机构座谈会和典型企业问卷调查方式。有关情况如下：     

城乡信用社会计信息失真问题必须引起重视

会计信息失真是引起城乡信用社会计风险的主要方面，本文将对城乡信用社会计信息失真及其防范作一探讨。     

信用社要重视提高资本充足率

信用社要重视提高资本充足率陈曜勋（一）农村和城市信用社属于我国非银行的金融机构，网点遍及城乡，对支持生产发展、城乡商品流通、繁荣经济发挥了积极的作用。随着金融体制改革的深化，城乡将逐步组建农村合作银行和城市合作银行，由于我国１９９５年将要“复关”，外...     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.