从“单独二孩”走向“全面二孩”:中国养老金支付危机能破解吗

随着人口老龄化程度不断加深,中国养老保险基金支付压力不断上升.政府通过调整生育政策以缓解老龄化程度,进而减轻养老保险基金支付压力.本文以2016年1月1日中国生育政策正式从“单独二孩”走向“全面二孩”为背景,通过建立精算模型分析调整生育政策对养老保险基金财务运行状况的影响,研究发现:(1)如果继续实行“一胎”政策,养老保险基金不可避免出现累计赤字(支付危机);(2)如果所有符合“单独二孩”规定的夫妇生育二孩,养老保险基金出现累计赤字的时点推迟约9年;(3)在不同“全面二孩”生育意愿下,养老保险基金出现累计赤字的时点均有所推迟,如果生育意愿达到54％及以上,养老保险基金在2090年及以前不出现累计赤字.上述结论均通过敏感性测试.可见,“全面二孩”政策可以缓解养老保险基金支付压力,如果要达到破解支付危机的目的,还有赖于生育意愿的提高.     

养老保险制度的探讨

我国已步入老龄化社会,但现有养老保险制度仍不完善,区域性及阶级性差距很大,不利于社会的稳定发展和人民生活水平提高。实行养老金保险基金中央调剂统筹,加强立法监管,开源节流,建立多渠道筹集机制,加大养老保险宣传力度,建立政府和社会相结合的养老保险制度,符合我国当下国情,但仍有很长一段路要走。     

企业退休职工养老金制度的改革

现在我国养老金改革处于过渡期,养老金替代率严重影响着养老基金的收支平衡,替代率较低,退休职工的生活水准低,养老保险基金收支平衡容易维持;替代率较高,退休职工的生活水准就高,养老保险基金收支平衡较难维持,可能出现缺口。针对此问题,本文根据山东省2011—2050年的工资预测表,以及2009年山东省某企业各年龄段工资分布表,研究职工从30、40岁开始缴养老保险直到退休(55、60、65岁)情况下的各种养老金替代率,建立基本养老金模型,在此基础上得到替代率的模型,并运用数学软件Matlab计算养老保险基金的缺口情况,同时计算职工缴存的养老保险基金与其领取的养老金之间达到收支平衡时该职工领取养老金的年数。本文将从养老金替代率、养老基金收支平衡等方面,对养老金制度改革提出分析和建议。     

经济欠发达地区如何走出养老保险基金缺口困境

根据劳动部门有关资料显示,我国有相当部分经济欠发达地区养老保险基金收不抵支、出现赤字.突出表现在两个方面:一是不能确保养老金及时足额发放,财政对养老金的补助逐年增大.二是养老保险基金的征缴越来越困难,基金缺口在逐年加大.     

养老保险基金管理分析

目前,我国在养老保险基金的征收、发放和管理过程中,主要存在着提前退休、冒领保险金、养老保险覆盖面窄、少缴漏缴、欠缴以及养老保险基金的安全和险基金的升值等问题.可通过加大养老保险基金的安全管理力度;尽快出台<养老保险法>;在全国范围内建立养老金发放体系;加大养老保险基金的征缴、扩面工作;加大养老保险信息化建设;逐步完善退休审批和退休金调整制度;确保养老保险基金的安全、保值和升值.     

确保养老保险基金更保险

目前,我国在养老保险基金的征收、发放和管理过程中,主要存在着提前退休、冒领保险金、养老保险覆盖面窄、少缴漏缴、欠缴以及养老保险基金的安全和保险基金的升值等问题.可通过加大养老保险基金的安全管理力度;尽快出台<养老保险法>;在全国范围内建立养老金发放体系;加大养老保险基金的征缴、扩面工作;加大养老保险信息化建设;逐步完善退休审批和退休金调整制度;确保养老保险基金的安全,保值和升值.     

养老保险基金管理分析

目前,我国在养老保险基金的征收、发放和管理过程中,主要存在着提前退休、冒领保险金、养老保险覆盖面窄、少缴漏缴、欠缴以及养老保险基金的安全和险基金的升值等问题.可通过加大养老保险基金的安全管理力度;尽快出台<养老保险法>;在全国范围内建立养老金发放体系;加大养老保险基金的征缴、扩面工作;加大养老保险信息化建设:逐步完善退休审批和退休金调整制度;确保养老保险基金的安全、保值和升值.     

我国养老保险金个人账户空账形成原因及改进设想

我国目前执行的基本养老保险金政策是社会统筹与个人账户相结合的基本养老保险制度。当社会统筹账户的资金不能足额支付养老金时,便出现了挤占挪用个人账户资金的空账现象。应从改革养老金收缴方法、加大财政投入与管理力度、扩大养老保险范围和改进养老金财务管理制度等方面进行解决。     

如何确保养老保险基金更保险

本文通过加大养老保险基金的安全管理力度;尽快出台《养老保险法》;在全国范围内建立养老金发放体系;加大养老保险基金的征缴、扩面工作;加大养老保险信息化建设;逐步完善退休审批和退休金调整制度;确保养老保险基金的安全、保值和升值。     

盘县城乡居民养老保险“长缴多得”激励机制的推行与完善

城乡居民基本养老保险缴费激励机制作为城乡居民养老保险可持续发展的前提条件之一,要在"多缴多得"激励机制的基础上进一步强化"长缴多得"激励机制。为了更好地推进贵州省盘县地区城乡居民基本养老保险"长缴多得"工作,对盘县地区五个乡镇进行实地调研。调查结果表明,受教育程度、对城乡居民养老保险制度的认识程度、以及宣传力度等因素对长缴多得工作的开展具有显著的影响。最后,针对现存的问题提出相关建议。     

城际消费流的边界效应研究——以长江中游城市群为例

消费对于经济增长的促进作用日趋增强,然而消费在空间上却存在明显的分割现象。基于长江中游城市群的银联刷卡消费数据,本文首次研究了城市消费及其跨界流动的态势,并通过建立影响消费的边界效应模型对消费的空间分割现象进行分析。研究发现,从省级尺度来看,省际边界对城市消费具有显著影响,即对城际消费流具有消极的屏障效应,而对城市本地消费则为保护效应;从市级尺度来看,城市边界兼具中介效应和屏障效应,具有地区异质性,约有一半城市的边界对城际消费流具有积极的中介效应。省级和市级尺度边界效应的背离,使得长江中游城市群的消费最终受到省际边界屏障效应的影响而出现空间分割。因此,为了减小区域边界的屏障效应,需要加强省级与市级政府的协商,在政策管理上达成一致;同时更要加强省际的沟通协作,促进区域消费的发展和互利共赢局面的实现。     

“两个比照”政策是否促进了中部崛起

本文结合理论推演和PSM-DID方法对"两个比照"政策的实施效果进行分析和估测。理论分析部分将政策干预纳入CES生产函数,推演得出以要素供给和提质增效为基本路径的分析框架,并结合中部崛起的发展规划提出研究假设。实证结果表明,"比照东北振兴"战略实施效应的发挥具有时滞性,但其仍使处理组城市的经济规模较对照组有显著的提升,且"三基地、一枢纽"的战略目标基本达成,然而该政策没有对处理组城市经济转型和提质增效产生明显作用。"比照西部大开发"政策效应的评估结果也支持了该政策各项战略着力点的基本落地,但其未能给县域经济规模或发展水平带来"净效应"。此外,"两个比照"政策导致农业区经济规模以及市域职工工资和县域农民收入的相对下滑,对地区软实力的提升也十分有限,还可能诱发县域的"粘绳纸效应"及政府投资对民间资本的"挤出效应",需要在打造"一中心、四区"战略新定位的过程中给予关注。     

高管从军经历与公司盈余管理:军民融合发展战略的新考察

军民融合发展战略是统一富国和强军两大目标的国家战略,具有从军经历的高管是军队人才资源与地方经济发展深度融合的事实样本。本文切入公司真实行为视角,详细考察和分析了高管从军经历对应计和真实两类盈余管理的影响效应和调节因素。首先,对影响效应的考察发现,相比无从军经历高管的公司,具有从军经历高管的公司应计盈余管理程度更高,销售操纵型的真实活动盈余管理程度更高,这表明具有从军经历的高管所在公司财务表现更加激进。其次,对调节因素的考察发现,高管从军经历对公司盈余管理程度的正向影响在国有企业以及高决策权力公司中更加显著。最后,对高管从军经历的细分特征考察发现,高管从军的年限越长、从军时取得的军衔越高,则公司盈余管理程度越高,这表明高管从军经历对盈余管理的影响效应受到从军深入度和军队认可度的影响。本文研究在理论上拓展了"文化与财务"的研究范式,补充了盈余管理文献的决定因素,在实践上为军民融合战略背景下军队文化对公司财务行为的经济后果及作用机理提供了微观个体层面的经验证据。     

金融服务部门开放对制造业企业技术创新的影响

金融服务部门开放提供了更多的优质金融服务,便利了企业融资,为企业技术创新提供支持。为系统研究金融服务部门开放与制造业企业技术创新之间的关系,本文在理论分析的基础上,基于世界银行微观企业调研数据库和服务贸易限制数据库,实证分析了金融服务部门开放对企业技术创新活动的影响。研究发现,金融服务部门开放促进了制造业企业技术创新;进一步引入行业特征的分析表明,高外部融资依赖企业的技术创新活动受金融服务部门开放的影响更大,金融服务部门的开放将更有效地促进这类企业技术创新活动的蓬勃发展。本文研究证实融资纾解效应是金融服务部门开放影响企业技术创新活动的主要渠道。     

Organization of work in the company and family rights of the employees

The duty to respect, protect and help the family rights is related very closely with the organization of work in the firm. This paper summarizes and illustrates, using mini-case studies, the relationship between the organization of work in companies and the family rights and duties of employees.Domènec Melé is the Director of Business Ethics Dept. at IESE (the Business School of the University of Navarra in Barcelona, Spain). He has a Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from Polytechnic University of Catalonia, Spain and a Ph.D. in Moral Theology from the University of Navarra, Spain.Before, he has been professor at the Polytechinc University in Valencia, Spain. His published works consist of several articles on engineering topics and more recently on Business Ethics and Social Teaching of the Church on economics and business.     

How Entrepreneurs Deal with Ethical Challenges – An Application of the Business Ethics Synergy Star Technique

Entrepreneurs typically live with the ever-present threat of business failure arising from limited financial resources and aggressive competition in the marketplace. Under these circumstances, conflicting priorities arise and the entrepreneur is thus faced with certain dilemmas. In seeking to resolve these, entrepreneurs must often rely on their own judgment to determine “what is right”. There is thus a need for a technique to assist them decide on a course of action when no precedent or obvious solution exists. This research paper examines how entrepreneurs experience and deal with these dilemmas. The research is based on interviews with seven entrepreneurs in established service-oriented ventures, which gave rise to 26 dilemmas. These dilemmas were analyzed by making use of the Synergy Star technique, which is introduced here as a tool that is useful in defining any dilemma, isolating the ethical component, and resolving the dilemma in a way that is congruent with the entrepreneur’s personal world-view. Dr. David Robinson lectures in Entrepreneurship and Business Ethics at Queensland University of Technology and Bond University in Australia and is Visiting Professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University in China. Himself an entrepreneur and director of companies with varied business interests, he holds a Master of Science from Brunel University, London, an MBA from Newport University, California and a Ph.D. from Rhodes University, South Africa. Dave is a past surfing and lifesaving champion and is known around the world as ‘Dr. Dave - the Surfing Professor’. Per Davidsson is Professor of Entrepreneurship and Director of Research at Queensland University of Technology, Australia and Professor of Entrepreneurship at the Jonkoping International Business School in Sweden. Hennie van der Mescht is Associate Professor and Head of the Education Department at Rhodes University, South Africa. Philip Court is Associate Professor and Head of the Management Department at Rhodes University, South Africa.     

政府补助、投融资约束与企业僵尸化

僵尸企业丧失活力但仍然存续,对国民经济效率具有严重的不利影响,清理僵尸企业是供给侧结构性改革的关键步骤。政府补助与僵尸企业形成的关系是当前供给侧结构性改革研究中的焦点问题之一。基于企业面临的主要约束类型,本文将企业划分为缺乏投资机会的投资机会约束企业和缺乏资金来源的融资约束企业,以2007—2016年A股上市公司为样本,研究不同约束类型下企业获得政府补助对企业僵尸化的影响。结果表明,政府补助更多拨付给投资机会约束企业而非融资约束企业;政府补助是企业僵尸化的推手之一,但仅在投资机会约束企业中显著;专用于扩大企业融资的融资补助对于投资机会约束企业僵尸化的作用较政府补助总额更为显著;政府补助总额与融资补助均未起到缓解融资约束企业僵尸化的作用。在控制反向因果的内生性问题、替换代理变量、滞后补助变量和对亏损企业样本僵尸化进行讨论的稳健性测试中,结果仍然显著。本文为政府补助与僵尸企业形成问题提供了企业面临主要约束这一异质性视角,并基于补助错配问题,提出优化政府补助政策与解决企业僵尸化问题的政策建议。     

The effect of the recent insider-trading scandal on stock prices of securities firms

This paper addresses the impact of the unethical business conduct of a few individuals that shook the financial market in 1986. Specifically, in the study undertaken for this paper, the wealth status of the shareholders of securities firms was examined in relation to the public disclosure of the insider-trading scandals involving Dennis Levine, Ivan Boesky, and their confederates. It was hypothesized that the expected market-adjusted stock returns for the securities firms would be negative as a result of the scandals. The findings of the study supported the hypothesis. Khalil M. Torabzadeh is Associate Professor of Finance at Radford University in Virginia. He earned his DBA in Finance from Mississippi State University in 1984. He began his teaching career at Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, in 1982, and joined the faculty of Radford University in 1985. He has had articles published in the Journal of Financial Research and the Journal of Applied Business Research. Dan Davidson is Professor of Business Law at Radford University in Virginia. He has five teaching awards, including the Razorback Outstanding Business Faculty Award from the University of Arkansas. He is the author of four textbooks published by PWS Kent Publishing Co., and his articles have been published in the Journal of Business Ethics, the Business Law Review, the Education Forum, and the Journal of Insurance Issues and Practices, among others.Hamid Assar is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Radford University in Virginia. His educational background includes a PhD in Financial Economics (expected in 1989) from Southern Illinois University, an MBA from Central State University in Oklahoma, and a Masters degree in Economics from the University of West Virginia. His research interests are in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, financial markets, and international finance.     

Business ethics: Defining the twilight zone

This paper examines the issue of ethics policy in organizations. While the actions of top management may be the single most important factor in fostering corporate behaviour of a high ethical standard, there should be policy where policy is needed. The perceptions of three managerial groups — top- marketing- and purchasing managers — are compared regarding firstly, whether they see a need for policy on a range of ethically contentious issues, and secondly whether they believe there is policy covering these issues in their own organizations. No significant differences between the three groups of managers were found, either with regard to their perceptions of needs for policy, or as far as the existence thereof is concerned. However, an overall comparison of need for policy and the existence of policy showed a significant difference on the scenarios presented to respondents. Furthermore, the study identifies grey areas of ethics in business where managers believe policy is needed, but is not perceived to exist. The use of an ethics policy matrix in organizations is suggested as a practcial tool for the examination of ethically contentious issues. Deon Nel is Senior Lecturer in Marketing in the School of Business of the University of Pretoria. His BCom (Hons) degree is from the University of Port Elizabeth, and his MCom (in Marketing) from the University of Pretoria. He is currently in the final stages of his doctoral study, and his papers have been published in the European Journal of Marketing, Industrial Marketing and Purchasing. Leyland Pitt is Senior Lecturer in Marketing in the School of Management at the Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. He holds an MBA and a DCom in marketing from the University of Pretoria. His articles have appeared in journals such as the European Journal of Marketing, Industrial Marketing Management, The International Journal of Advertising, and The Journal of Business Ethics. Richard Watson is Head of the Department of Information Systems in the School of Business at the Western Australian College of Advanced Education. He holds a BSc and DipComp from the University of Western Australia, MAdmin from Monash University, and PhD in Management Information Systems from the University of Minnesota. His work has been accepted for MIS Quarterly and Large Scale Systems.     

Assessing the influence of marketing research on the social science literature

Citation analysis indicates that theJournal of Marketing and theJournal of Marketing Research contribute primarily to marketing and other business areas as opposed to nonbusiness social sciences. The journals are also heavily cited by practitioner-oriented publications. A list of most cited articles is provided.The authors acknowledge the research funding from Washington State University and the National University of Singapore for this project.