Targetsalden: Viel mehr als nur ein Haftungsrisiko

The Target2 balances of the ESCB have become a focus of scholarly discussion. Triggered by a loss of international competitiveness and subsequent current account deficits in the EMU’s periphery states, they now constitute a default risk for the core states. But there is more to it: balance of payment disequilibria in a currency union are supposed to trigger money supply flows from surplus countries to deficit countries. Since they form the basis for readjustments in relative prices and competitiveness, they must not be neutralised by monetary policy. The ECB’s Target2 balances create precisely this neutralisation and thus undermine the self-adjusting mechanism of the EMU.     

REPRODUCTION AND TEMPORARY DISEQUILIBRIUM: A CLASSICAL APPROACH

We build a bisector reproduction model with Classical features in which the capitalists aim at maximizing accumulation. At variance with gravitation models, it is assumed that they invest their profits in their own industry. Their plans are based on actual productions and expected prices. Effective prices and effective allocations of resources are determined by a market‐clearing mechanism. A law on the formation of expectations allows us to define the dynamics of disequilibria, which let appear endogenous self‐sustained fluctuations around a long‐run path. The long‐run rate of growth and the amplitude of the fluctuations depend on the initial conditions.     

The monetary approach to the balance of payments: A nontechnical guide

The monetary approach uses monetary rather than multiplier and market stability tools. It differs from the `elasticities,' `Keynesian multiplier,' `absorption,' and `economic policy' approaches in introducing stocks as well as current expenditure flows into the adjustment process so that payments disequilibria are transitory and conditional on domestic monetary policy. The development of the approach is sketched, and some policy implications briefly discussed.     

Foreign monetary shocks,differentiated products and international transmission: a two-country model with intra-industry trade

In this paper we study how the impact of a foreign monetary shock is transmitted between two monopolistically competitive economies engaging in intra-industry trade with differentiated products. Intra-industry trade is the only international link that works through the flexible exchange rate affecting national price levels and a product's internal and external relative prices. While national price levels are subject to purchasing power parity, the two relative prices are determined by the interaction between macro and micro variables. In this context, the exchange rate can insulate a national economy perfectly from a foreign monetary shock provided that monopolists adjust prices. Even if monopolists keep prices rigid, this shock only affects domestic real balances and aggregate demand, leaving domestic aggregate output unchanged because the real balances effect is just offset by the resulting unfavorable relative prices effects under the assumption of Spence-Dixit-Stiglitz preferences.     

试析基于金融资产价格的货币政策调控

随着以金融为核心的符号经济的不断发展 ,货币政策的传导机制变得日趋复杂 ,由此产生的一个问题是 ,货币政策是否需要把包括金融资产价格在内的广义价格指数作为调控目标。通过分析可知对于一个证券市场波动可能对宏观经济稳定产生重大影响的经济体而言 ,货币政策应该对资产价格变动保持密切关注 ,但不宜作为货币政策的调控目标     

我国调控房地产价格的货币政策分析

美国由于对资产价格做出的货币政策滞后给经济带来了很大负面影响,我国也应该认识到积极的财政政策和货币政策会带来资产价格泡沫隐患,尤其是房地产泡沫问题应该受到关注。现阶段货币政策调控房地产市场面临着放松调控将导致房地产泡沫卷土重来,过度调控会阻碍经济的持续发展,微观主体预期对货币政策有效性构成挑战,基层中央银行落实政策难到住等问题。完善我国货币政策调控体系就要增强货币政策的连续性、一致性和透明度,防止心理预期的变化引起房地产价格的震荡,还要加强一般性货币政策与选择性货币政策之间的配合以及货币政策与其他调控政策的配合。     

On dynamics in a Keynesian model of monetary and fiscal stabilization policy mix with twin debt accumulation

In this paper, a six‐dimensional model of flexible prices with the monetary and fiscal policy mix, describing the development of the firms’ private debt, the output, the expected rate of inflation, the rate of interest, government expenditure, and government bonds are analyzed. The stress put on the “twin debt accumulation” means that in our model both private debt accumulation and the public debt (government bond) accumulation are explicitly introduced. Questions concerning the existence of limit cycles around its normal equilibrium point are investigated. The bifurcation equation is found. The formulae for the calculation of its coefficients are gained. Numerical example illustrating the results attained is presented by means of numerical simulations.     

International monetary policy surprise spillovers

This is the first paper to examine international monetary surprise spillovers and to estimate the response of security prices to monetary and nonmonetary surprises. Monetary surprises have a slope effect on the domestic yield curve—short maturity yields adjust much more than longer maturity yields. These results are similar to other studies. The following results are new. US monetary surprises spill over and affect Australian yields and equity returns. Australian monetary surprises do not spill over to the US. Nonmonetary surprises are much more important than monetary policy surprises in explaining longer maturity yield changes and equity returns.     

Managing an Economy Under EMU: The Case of Ireland

Ireland's experience of limited monetary independence within the EMS indicated that such independence was bought at the price of significant risk premia on interest rates. This experience informed its decision to join EMU, and membership has resulted in the expected credibility gain. Since the start of EMU inflation in consumer prices in Ireland has risen well above the EU average. However, this need not be a matter of concern within a monetary union. Instead, what should concern the Irish administration is a high rate of inflation in wage rates and domestic asset prices chiefly housing. While monetary policy is no longer available as an instrument of domestic policy, fiscal policy can still be used to effectively target these problems. The lessons of the first three years of membership is that the focus of fiscal policy within Ireland needs to change, and that the EU institutions also need to focus more clearly on the needs of the Euro area rather than on those of individual regional economies.     

How Large Is the Risk of Stagflation in the Eurozone?

The rapid recovery of demand combined with supply constraints has led to rising prices during the past months. This is evident in oil and gas markets, but also in international trade, which has been thrown out of step by bottlenecks at Asian ports. This situation creates a trade-off for the European Central Bank, because a more expansionary monetary policy cannot mitigate the supply bottlenecks and supply-side restrictions, while a more restrictive monetary policy would slow down the economic recovery. For this reason, key interest rate hikes in the eurozone are not to be expected for 2022. If the supply-side factors become persistent and wage policy tries to pass the price effects on, monetary policy will be forced to become restrictive.

     

信用扩张的合理界限与房价波动研究

房地产业是资金密集型产业,它的供给与需求很大程度上由信用扩张程度来决定。而信用扩张的合理边界作为货币政策的目标,决定了房地产的繁荣程度与价格水平的高低。因此,货币政策对房价具有重要的影响。但是,由于所有的金融交易都存在着内在与外在的不稳定,这就需要一系列的金融制度安排来保证信用扩张边界的合理性。同样,由于金融制度不完全性、效应的滞后性及利益的渗透性,金融交易制度安排的缺陷可能成为房地产价格波动的制度性根源。由此,本文从货币政策的制度因素来讨论与研究信用扩张过度与房价的波动关系,并希望从中寻求对房价波动更为一般性的解释。     

A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination

This paper builds a baseline two-country model of real and monetary transmission in the presence of optimal international price discrimination by firms. Distributing traded goods to consumers requires nontradables, making the price elasticity of demand country-specific and a function of the exchange rate. Profit-maximizing monopolistic firms drive a wedge between prices across countries, optimally dampening the response of import and consumer prices to exchange-rate movements. We derive general equilibrium expressions for the pass-through into import and consumer prices, tracing the differential impact of real and monetary shocks on marginal cost and markup fluctuations through the exchange rate.     

Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: A PVAR approach

The overly accommodating monetary policy is often accused of creating surplus liquidity and bubbles on the asset markets. In particular, it could have contributed to strong capital inflows in emerging countries, which may have had a significant impact on financial stability in these countries, affecting domestic financing conditions and creating a risk of upward pressures on asset prices. We focus in this paper on the impact of global excess liquidity on goods and asset prices for a set of emerging market countries by estimating a panel VAR model. We define first global liquidity and highlight situations of excess liquidity. We then find that excess liquidity at global level has spillover effects on output and price levels in emerging countries. The impact on real estate, commodity and share prices in emerging countries is less clear.     

A comparison of ranking,rating and reservation price measurement in conjoint analysis

This paper empirically compares the traditional preference measures of ranking and rating in conjoint analysis with a direct monetary measure of product value — reservation prices. Experimental results are as expected. While reservation prices do very well in terms of fit, they are inferior in terms of predicting choice on a holdout sample. In addition, surprisingly little difference is found in the performance of ranks and ratings.     

Money,Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?

ABSTRACT

This study examines the non-linear relationship between money, inflation and output with respect to the Friedman and Schwartz hypotheses that monetary policy affects prices in the long-run but not in the short-run, and influences output in the short-run but not in the long-run. The study examines the case of Nigeria and South Africa for the period 1970–2016 using the ARDL approach. The study proved that Friedman and Schwartz were right that money growth influences output in the short-run and not in the long-run. This suggests monetary policy is neutral in the long-run; however, the findings of this study cast some doubts on their popular view that money growth affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. This study shows that money growth actually affects prices both in the short and long-run. Thus, it is only the long-run dimension of the second hypothesis that is valid; the short-run view of the hypothesis is invalid for both Nigeria and South Africa. In fact, the significant estimates of money growth on inflation in both countries prove that inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon (both in the short and long run).     

房地产泡沫的虚拟经济决定论及其实证检验

现代房地产具有虚拟资产特征。对房地产泡沫的虚拟经济决定论的实证检验包括:房地产价格与货币政策、利率政策、信贷波动及股价各自之间的相关检验。结果发现,货币供应量、利率等虚拟经济变量对房地产价格都存在显著的影响。整体而言,来自中国的实证分析初步支持了房地产泡沫的货币推动假说,房地产泡沫是一种货币现象的判断。     

房地产价格与货币供应量的波动溢出效应

基于VAR模型和GARCH模型对中国房地产价格与货币供应量的波动溢出效应进行实证研究,发现货币供应量与房地产价格之间不存在显著的动态相关性,也不存在明显的波动溢出效应,中央银行没有必要用货币政策去直接调控房地产价格。     

High food prices: The tip of an iceberg

High food prices generate symptoms which are more obvious than their underlying causes. For these the following article suggests some fundamental explanations, laying stress on monetary issues.     

Threats to monetary policy independence: reasons to be concerned

Several legislative efforts are under way that aim to impose greater congressional oversight of and influence on the monetary policy decision making of the Federal Reserve System. Some of these initiatives might do little harm or even make marginal improvements. But others pose more serious threats to the operational independence of monetary policy. Proposals to require the Federal Reserve to frame monetary policy decisions according to a mathematical formula imply a concrete simplicity of policy that is inaccurate and misleading. And the reporting requirements associated with these proposals threaten to negate the major advantage of monetary policy as a countercyclical weapon—speed. Proposals to subject the non-monetary policy functions of the Fed to the appropriations process provide Congress with additional leverage that could be used to apply pressure to monetary policy decisions. For its part, the Fed should continue to increase transparency through more timely and complete release of relevant information and analysis. To best promote the objectives of stable prices and maximum employment, the operational independence of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision making needs to be preserved and protected.