经济一体化、政治风险和第三国效应对中国OFDI的影响

利用空间计量模型实证分析经济一体化、政治风险、第三国效应等因素对中国OFDI的影响。实证结果发现:中国OFDI型态倾向于复合性的FDI,且不受第三国效应影响;经济一体化程度越高越不利于中国OFDI,东道国的政治风险越高越不利于中国OFDI;此外,人均收入越高及文化邻近程度越高的国家,越显著有利于中国OFDI,东道国市场机会对中国OFDI有显著负向影响;中国的OFDI,国有企业居主导地位,且倾向于投资技术含量相对较低的产业。     

国家风险对中国在RCEP成员国OFDI的影响机理研究

东道国国家风险是影响外来投资的主要影响因素。本文通过中国在其他RCEP成员国投资现状进行梳理,从政治、经济、金融和社会风险等角度探讨其他RCEP成员国及国家风险对中国对外投资的影响机理。政治风险主要通过抑制效应、成本效应和规制效应对OFDI产生影响;经济风险主要通过东道国经济的稳定性和市场规模以及经济水平对OFDI产生影响;金融风险主要通过东道国债务危机及融资环境对OFDI产生影响;社会文化风险主要是通过东道国的社会文化冲突与社会安全对OFDI产生影响。本文对RCEP成员国直接投资政策的制定具有一定的参考意义。     

财政政策不确定性与对外直接投资

基于Huang和Luk构建的财政政策不确定性指数,本文采用2003～2018年中国与88个国家的面板数据检验了财政政策不确定性与对外直接投资(OFDI)的相关关系.结果显示:(1)中国财政政策不确定性对OFDI有显著正向影响;(2)金融危机前,中国财政政策不确定性对OFDI呈现出显著抑制作用,危机后呈现出显著促进作用;(3)相比发展中国家,中国财政政策不确定性对在发达国家的OFDI促进作用更大,且OFDI在发达国家更关注经济增长速度,在发展中国家更关注能源禀赋和制度稳定因素.这一研究结果为探索中国OFDI飞速发展提供了新的研究视角,也启示中国政府应尽可能保证财政政策的稳定性与持续性,防止因规避国内财政政策不确定性风险造成盲目对外投资,同时还需对不同地区的OFDI进行差异化引导,提升中国OFDI的质量.     

社会政治风险与我国企业对外直接投资的区位选择

本文分别探讨社会风险和政治风险对我国企业对外直接投资(OFDI)区位选择的影响。结果表明:并非在对外直接投资过程中忽视了东道国的社会与政治风险,而是企业对此类风险的关注程度取决于中国与东道国的双边关系;在友好国家投资时,企业并不关注东道国政治风险,而在非友好国家投资时,企业表现出较明显的风险规避倾向;此外,我国企业还具有重政治风险而轻社会风险的特点;随着海外投资经验的增多,东道国政治风险对区位选择的影响越来越显著,但社会风险的影响却越来越微弱。     

政治风险对中国对外直接投资的影响研究

本文利用2009年~2017年中国对101个国家的直接投资数据,使用固定效应方法,考察东道国政治风险对中国企业OFDI的影响。研究发现:(1)政治风险是中国OFDI的重要影响因素。(2)政治风险和中国OFDI呈负相关关系,中国企业对外直接投资大量流向政治风险较高的发展中国家,其内在原因是寻求自然资源,中国对外投资呈现自然资源导向特征。     

民营企业OFDI现状及影响因素分析

本文首先从投资规模、投资行业、投资区域、投资方式四个方面,阐述了民营企业的OFDI现状,然后分析了影响民营企业OFDI的因素,即母国制度、东道国政治风险、东道国经济风险、地理距离与文化距离,最后提出了促进民营企业OFDI的政策建议。     

市场寻求抑或资源寻求?——来自中国OFDI的动因研究

本文改变以往研究对外直接投资动因采用行为导向的分析思路,试图从对外直接投资的目的导向入手,通过建立混合面板模型,分析市场驱动和自然资源驱动两种内在力量对中国OFDI的作用。研究结果发现,中国OFDI具有明显的市场寻求和资源寻求特征,中国OFDI受东道国绝对和相对市场规模的影响显著,且相对于发达东道国家而言,发展中东道国的自然资源对中国OFDI具有显著的吸引力。此外,双边贸易联系的增强、东道国市场开放程度的加深、温和的通货膨胀以及政治风险的降低也是促进中国OF-DI流入的积极因素。     

制度距离“、示范效应”与中国OFDI的区位分布

利用2000-2009年中国在73个国家和地区的OFDI数据,基于空间面板数据模型,从东道国制度质量、东道国与中国之间的制度距离等方面考察了东道国制度因素对中国OFDI区位分布的影响。研究结果表明:经济和法治制度对发展中国家吸收OFDI有显著的正影响,而对发达国家的影响则不显著;"制度距离"对东道国吸收OFDI有显著的负面影响;中国在发达国家成功投资的经验会通过文化制度、经济制度和法治制度溢出到与其制度"相邻"的发达国家,而在发展中国家,溢出路径为经济制度和法治制度。研究结果还表明,双边汇率以及东道国资源禀赋都是影响中国OFDI区位分布的重要因素。     

投资经验是否影响了中国异质性企业的OFDI模式选择

本文研究了中国异质性企业在特定目的国①市场的前期投资经验与其后续OFDI模式选择的动态关系,并提出相关假说,然后使用2003—2011年中国企业OFDI数据进行了实证检验与分析。研究发现:对特定目的国市场前期投资经验越丰富,或者中国其他企业对目的国对行业投资经验越丰富,中国OFDI企业越倾向于跨境并购;从企业异质性影响看,当中国企业生产率越高时,该企业在目的国投资经验对其OFDI模式选择的影响也越大;企业前期投资经验与目的国制度、风险环境之间呈显著的逆向调节效应,差异性地作用于该企业后期OFDI模式选择;当然,中国OFDI企业在同一国前期的投资经验对其后期OFDI模式选择的影响强于相似国家,而非相似国家的投资经验则不具有显著影响。     

中国企业OFDI的区位选择——国有企业和民营企业的比较分析

本文利用2005-2013年中国上市公司对外直接投资的数据,采用logit模型,实证分析了国有企业和民营企业在对外直接投资区位选择上的不同。研究结果表明:国有企业OFDI倾向于进入自然资源丰富的国家,尤其是发展中国家。而民营企业OFDI区位选择则主要受东道国市场规模和战略资产影响,其中,对发展中国家的投资主要是为了获取市场,而对发达国家的投资主要是为了获取战略资产。此外,二者在区位选择上比较明显的差别是,国有企业OFDI对东道国政治风险并不敏感,甚至倾向于进入政治风险较高的国家,而民营企业OFDI则有很强的风险规避意识,倾向于进入政治稳定的国家。     

Heterogeneity of political connections and outward foreign direct investment

By examining the heterogeneity of political connections (PCs), this study reconceptualises the relationship between PCs and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Drawing upon resource dependence theory, we hypothesise that firms with ascribed PCs benefit from top political privileges in their home market and have a low OFDI commitment. Firms without any PCs have a medium OFDI commitment because they have to avoid the discriminative competition associated with their inferior political status. Firms with acquired PCs possess relatively strong political and market resources and face exchange pressure; thus, they exhibit a high OFDI commitment. The aforementioned hypotheses are supported by empirical results from probit and Tobit models based on panel data of 482 listed Chinese firms with OFDI from 2003 to 2014.     

Formal and informal influences of the state on OFDI of hybrid state-owned enterprises in China

This study investigates how the state influences the outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) of hybrid state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China. Previous studies have provided conflicting arguments and empirical findings on the internationalization of SOEs, with some studies proposing a positive relationship between state ownership and OFDI, while others propose a negative relationship. In this paper, we argue that the mixed effects are due to different influences of different levels of state ownership and different types of political connections. We investigate our proposed hypotheses based on a sample of publicly listed hybrid Chinese SOEs between 2009 and 2016. We find an S-shaped relationship between state ownership and OFDI such that at low levels of state ownership, OFDI increases as state ownership increases; at medium levels of state ownership, OFDI decreases as state ownership increases; at high levels of state ownership, OFDI increases again as state ownership increases. We further find that executive-branch political connections between boards and top management teams of firms and the government have a negative effect on OFDI, while legislative-branch political connections have no significant effect on OFDI.     

Factors Influencing China’s Exports with a Spatial Econometric Model

This article employs a spatial econometric model to examine whether China’s exports are affected by political risk, economic integration, and spatial effects. The results show that as China’s economy has grown, a home market effect is evident for its exports. A higher level of economic integration is beneficial to China’s exports. A substitutive relationship is discovered between China’s OFDI and exports. In addition, the higher income per capita of partner countries and the high degree of economic openness are both beneficial to China’s exports. The partner countries of China, with their higher values of export trade, have been mostly countries with lower political risk.     

Belt and road initiative and Chinese firms' outward foreign direct investment

This paper studies the impact of China's “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) on Chinese firms' outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Overall, the BRI positively impacts on Chinese OFDI activities. However, both the direction and the magnitude of this impact depend on the host countries' willingness to participate in the BRI. The BRI promotes more OFDI to developing countries that welcome China's economic engagement and alters the effect of Chinese domestic push factors on its OFDI patterns. In addition, Chinese firms in construction and infrastructure, manufacturing, and trade-related sectors are more responsive to the BRI than firms in other sectors.     

OFDI逆向技术溢出、异质性金融发展与经济增长质量

文章首先采用熵权法和因子分析法测算了经济增长质量综合指数与金融发展综合指数,选取2003~2017年中国30个省份的面板数据,在检验了经济增长质量的空间相关性与金融发展的门槛效应后,构建了动态空间面板模型,实证研究了不同金融发展水平下OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量的影响。研究结果表明,当金融发展处在较低水平时,OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量的促进作用不明显;当金融发展处在较高水平后,OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量的促进作用明显。进一步在地区异质性分析中发现,OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量的影响存在明显的地区差异性,东部地区OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量影响的门槛效应更明显。     

Leader narcissism and outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Chinese firms

Researchers use the upper echelons theory to establish how leaders’ attributes affect firms’ outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), a proxy for foreign operations. This extant literature has largely ignored the impact of leaders’ psychological attributes, particularly, narcissism. We use a narcissism index of leaders of Chinese listed companies to examine the relationship between leader narcissism and firm-level OFDI for the period 2007-2017. We show that leader narcissism has a positive and significant impact on firm-level OFDI. In addition, we find that firms with state ownership and political connections show a greater positive effect of leader narcissism on the firm’s OFDI. Our results suggest that leader narcissism appears to be a stimulus to corporate OFDI, and thus in recruiting top corporate executives who are responsible for managing the international investments of the corporation, this psychological trait should be given special consideration in addition to other qualifications.     

The Growth Impact of Chinese Direct Investment on Host Developing Countries

This paper examines the growth impact of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on host developing countries and investigates whether it is different from that of OFDI from Western countries. The analysis covers the distinctive characteristics of Chinese OFDI, in particular, weak ownership advantages and strong state supportiveness, and how they influence the growth impact of OFDI through different transmission channels. Using a cross-country panel dataset for 52 countries over the 2004-2012 period and OFDI originating from China and the US as examples, the results attest to our argument that it is not absolute but relative ownership advantage and the gap-filling compatibilities between FDI and host economies that determine the growth impact of FDI on the host countries. It finds that both Chinese OFDI and US OFDI have a significant positive impact on capital accumulation in developing countries; however, Chinese OFDI has a stronger effect on employment and productivity growth than US OFDI. Moreover, the growth impact of Chinese OFDI is stronger in low-income countries, while US OFDI demonstrates significant effects mainly in middle-income countries.     

A stranger in a strange land: Micro political risk and the multinational firm

When a firm chooses to enter or continue business in a foreign market, it becomes exposed to associated political risks which should be assessed and managed. Help is available for becoming aware of the level of macro political risk; that is, the political risk across industries or all businesses in entire countries or geographic regions. Yet, surprisingly little guidance exists by which to identify and assess firm-specific political risks, termed micro political risk. Herein, we offer some new perspectives on the nature of micro political risk within a host country, illustrating how it stems from economic, societal, and governmental forces. We have compiled a number of firm-specific variables which can affect the firm’s micro political risk profile, and advance an innovative methodology by which executives can address these variables and develop an assessment of their firm’s micro political risk. Examples of micro political risk situations are provided, along with discussion of implementing the proposed methodology.     

“一带一路”沿线国家投资便利化对中国对外直接投资的影响:理论与经验证据

文章通过构建投资便利化评价指标体系,运用熵值法定量测度"一带一路"沿线国家的投资便利化水平,并基于拓展引力模型实证检验其对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响。研究发现:"一带一路"沿线国家投资便利化建设能够显著促进中国OFDI增长,其中制度质量改善对中国OFDI的促进作用最大。异质性分析表明,亚非地区、中等收入水平、资源禀赋欠丰富、市场潜力大以及与中国投资合作信任度高的沿线国家通过推进投资便利化建设,对中国OFDI的促进作用更明显。机制检验表明,沿线各国推进投资便利化建设,可以通过削减投资成本、提高投资效率以及降低投资风险等渠道对中国OFDI产生显著正向影响。最后聚焦行业差异的分析表明,沿线国家投资便利化建设能显著促进中国制造业和服务业OFDI扩展边际的提高,且对后者的促进作用更大。