Job security and work force adjustment: How different are U.S. and Japanese practices?

The paper compares employment and hours adjustment in Japanese and U.S. manufacturing. In contrast to some previous work, we find that adjustment of total labor input to demand changes is significantly greater in the United States than in Japan; adjustment of employment is significantly greater in the United States, while that of average hours is about the same in the two countries. Although workers in Japan enjoy greater employment stability than do U.S. workers, we find considerable variability in the adjustment patterns across groups within each country. In the United States, most of the adjustment is borne by production workers. In Japan, female workers, in particular, bear a disproportionate share of adjustment.     

Foreign and Domestic Shocks: Macroeconomic Responses of ASEAN-3 Countries

Abstract

The study provides new empirical evidence on the relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks on selected ASEAN-3 (Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) macroeconomic variables. Three structural vector auto regression models are estimated for each country. The focal point is given on the formulation of the sources of foreign factors. The first model uses trade-weighted foreign variables of both US and Japan to represent the foreign factors. The other two models use US and Japan by themselves, respectively, to represent the foreign factors. Two important results are emerged. First, foreign sectors play an important role in influencing macroeconomic variables of each of the ASEAN-3 country, especially in the medium and the long-run horizon. Second, most of the time, the Japanese factors are more dominant than the US factors in influencing domestic output and inflation for each of the ASEAN-3 countries.     

Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows among ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) as well as to their five main trading partners. External volatility is included in the models to study the ‘third country’ effect on the trade flows. We employ annual import and export data over the period of 1980–2012. The results from the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction model reveal that the real exchange rate volatility does play a significant role in 15 export and four import models in short-run and long-run. Moreover, in both import and export models, the effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows are negative rather than positive. Finally, the effects of volatility from the ASEAN-4’s currency/yuan rate dominate the third country effect on the ASEAN-4’s trade.     

需求结构调整对产业结构变动的影响——基于云南投入产出表的分析

以"调结构稳增长效果"为目标,基于投入产出表分析云南的需求结构与产业结构相互依赖关系,模拟了不同程度地调整需求结构会对产业结构及其贡献的影响。得出了提高消费在总需求中的比重最有助于产业结构的优化升级的结论,并提出了加快云南产业结构升级的政策建议。     

Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies

This study explores the linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 countries over the period 1970:01–2007:12. Inflation uncertainty is estimated as a conditional variance in an AR(p)-EGARCH(1,1) model. Granger causality tests show that rising inflation increases inflation uncertainty and that rising inflation uncertainty increases inflation in all five countries. The ASEAN-5 have had low inflation rates relative to other emerging markets. Thus, our study shows that even in low inflation emerging markets inflation can lead to inflation uncertainty and uncertainty can lead to inflation. Given current inflationary pressures in these countries, our results warn of possible costs of not keeping inflation in check.     

The Impact of Energy Pricing Policy on Taiwan's Small Open Economy*

How a fast-growth country like Taiwan can develop its economy under restrictive energy constraints is an interesting and important research subject. This paper describes the impact of energy pricing policy, such as changes in the prices set by the state for oil or gas, on Taiwan's economy. In order to understand the interrelationships between the energy price shocks and the economy of Taiwan, a computable energy general equilibrium model (EGEM 1.1) is set up to study the problem. In this CGE model, the economy is divided into 13 industrial sectors, 2 primary input sectors, and 4 final demand sectors. There are 16 commodities of interest, 7 of which are major energy commodities. The results in this paper may be useful for providing important recommendations to the government of Taiwan and to other developing countries in Asia.     

A tale of two SICs: Japanese and American industrialisation in historical perspective

Late‐developing countries often adopt best practice technologies pioneered abroad, facilitating convergence toward leading economies. Meiji Japan (1868–1912) is one successful example of industrial convergence, but much of the evidence relies on national aggregates or selected industries. Using historical industry data, this paper examines whether Japan adopted new technologies faster compared to the United States. Contrary to conventional wisdom, new sectors did not appear relatively sooner in Japan, however, they did grow to economic significance faster.     

PROBLEMS IN EXPANDING JAPAN'S IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURES FROM DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: A SURVEY*

The Japanese economy is now the second largest market economy, with a large trade surplus. And yet, Japan's imports of manufactures have long been very low relative to its GNP, when compared with other industrial countries; its ratio of manufactured imports to GNP was in the range of 2.1–2.7% in the 1980-87 period, as compared with 8.5–10.3% for the industrial countries as a whole or 4.7-7.2% for the United States. The share of developing economies in total imports of manufactures in Japan is about the same as, if not higher than, those for most other industrial countries. If Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP were to rise in the future to approach closer to those of other industrial countries, Japan's imports of manufactures from developing economies could be two to three times what they are today, even if Japan's GNP does not increase at all and the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports does not increase. This paper is an attempt to probe the potential of the Japanese market for imports of manufactures from developing economies in terms of rising ratio of such imports to GNP. The paper explores the reasons why Japan's ratio is exceptionally low, on the basis of existing literature. (a) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP has remained exceptionally low compared with those for other industrial countries. (b) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports from developing economies to GNP has remained distinctly low despite the recent surge in such imports. (c) If a part of the reason for the low ratio for Japan was a market access problem as often alleged, the problem is not with formal import barriers such as tariffs and formal non-tariff barriers because these barriers in Japan are no higher than in other industrial countries. As for informal import barriers, evidence found indicates that: (i) Administrative guidance and flexibly managed competition policy, which in the past had considerable effects of limiting imports, appear to have declined-in importance, but they still have import-limiting effects in certain areas. (ii) Market access difficulties involving import procedures, product standards, testing and certification requirements, which were enormous in the past, may have also decreased in severity over the last decade, but problems in these areas persist. (iii) There are aspects of the Japanese distribution system and practice that seem to make foreign access to the Japanese market significantly more difficult than the access by Japanese exporters to the markets in other industrial countries. Distribution in Japan suffers from overregulation. (iv) Users of manufactured products in Japan are sensitive to quality, perhaps more so, on the average, than in other industrial countries. Does the recent upsurge in Japan's imports of manufactures suggest that the traditional import behavior of Japan is changing? Japan's manufactured imports measured in yen increased by 18 and 27 percent in 1987 and 1988, respectively, and those coming from developing economies increased even more rapidly. There is also some evidence that price and income elasticities of demand for manufactured imports may have increased recently. These are encouraging, but it remains to be seen whether the trends will continue far enough into the future to bring Japan's import behavior more into line with those of other industrial countries. If they do, implications for the market prospects of manufactured exports from developing economies could be far-reaching. Outstanding questions are: (i) How much of the recent increase in manufactured imports is attributable to the appreciation of the yen (price effect)? How much is attributable to the increase in income or industrial output (income effect)? How much is attributable to removal of formal and informal import barriers effected so far (structural change)? Has consumer taste changed? (ii) Why have Latin American countries not been successful in promoting their exports of manufactures to Japan, when Asian exporters have been so successful? (iii) Up until now, the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports has not been particularly low compared with those for other industrial countries, but is this share likely to fall or rise in the future? (iv) What is the likely impact of recently increased direct investment (DFI) by Japanese manufacturers in developing economies on the imports of their products into Japan?     

公共资本与经济增长——东盟五国数据的实证检验

20世纪60年代以来,东盟国家持续快速的经济增长引起了人们的重视。在对这些国家经济增长来源的研究中,前人的研究着重考察了私人投资的重要性。本文运用生产函数法对东盟五国公共投资与经济增长关系进行了实证研究①。实证分析结果显示,除了菲律宾之外,其余4个东盟国家公共资本产出弹性显著为正值,表明公共投资对其经济增长具有明显的促进作用。而菲律宾的公共资本对经济增长则没有显著的影响,公共投资效率低下是造成菲律宾公共资本非生产性的主要原因。     

新冠疫情对东亚产业链的影响分析

东亚国家和地区中间产品贸易份额的不断增长使得区域内国家和地区的产业联系日益加强,中日韩三国政府为防范新冠疫情扩散而采取的不同措施,在对本国工业生产与物流交通产生影响同时,也会通过中间产品贸易对东亚产业链上下游的国外厂商造成一定损害。此外,作为东亚产业链重要消费市场的欧美发达国家因防止疫情蔓延而采取的限制措施,也会从需求端对东亚产业链带来一定打击。     

An empirical assessment of the relationship between competition policy and investment

The relationship between competition policy and investment is empirically examined. Empirical findings suggest that increasing market competition has a positive and robust impact on the share of total investment in GDP per capita. Developing countries enjoy benefits from competition legislation efficiency improvement, whereas the reduction of government anti-competitive price control intervention enhances the good investment environment in developed countries. In relation to the potential impacts of ASEAN competition policies, if ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand) become as competitive as Singapore, the investment shares are expected to increase to approximately 2–4%. Further, foreign direct investment inflows from the 30 OECD countries are expected to increase roughly 0.6–1.2%.     

市场驱动的中日韩贸易一体化趋势研究

近年来中日韩三国经贸合作日益频繁,相互出口结构进一步与区域内的需求结构相契合,产业分工水平进一步深化,表现出明显的区域贸易一体化趋势。这一过程客观上要求突破原有的国家边界束缚,在区域内实施更加开放的经济贸易政策,促进区域竞争力提高和经济持续增长。     

Efficiency change and growth in productivity: the Asian growth experience

This paper focuses on identifying the sources of productivity growth in ten Asian economies including China, Japan, the NIEs and the ASEAN-4. We calculate productivity growth and its components using distance-function-based Malmquist productivity indexes following Färe, Grosskopf, Norris, and Zhang (1994a). Hong Kong and Singapore are found to have the capabilities to shift the grand frontier of the APEC economies. But the productivity divergence might have occurred since the 70’s. The FDI contributes to the Asian growth either through catching-up or through technological innovations when a sufficient learning capacity is available in the host economy.     

The Interactions of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the ASEAN-5 Countries: New Evidence Using a Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Approach

Abstract

Using a data-set from the ASEAN-5 countries over the January 2000–August 2013 period, this paper revisits the Granger causal nexus between the equity and foreign exchange markets by employing the bootstrap panel Granger causality approach developed by Kònya, which allows for both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The results indicate a unidirectional causality from stock prices to exchange rates in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand and from exchange rates to stock prices in Indonesia. These findings have important implications for policy-makers and institutional investors who should rigidly monitor the dynamic linkages between stock price and exchange rate movements across the ASEAN-5 financial markets when making policy decisions and investing in these countries.     

Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis

This study assesses the response of the trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations across a large number of countries. Fixed-effects regressions are estimated for three country groups (industrial, developing and emerging markets) on annual data for 87 countries from 1994 to 2010. The trade balance improves significantly after a real depreciation, and to a similar degree, in the long run for all countries, but the adjustment is significantly slower for industrial countries. Emerging markets and developing countries display relatively fast adjustment. Disaggregation into exports and imports shows that the delayed adjustment in industrial countries is almost entirely on the export side. The rate of adjustment in emerging markets is slowing over time, consistent with their eventual graduation to high-income status. The ratio of trade to GDP is also highly sensitive to the real effective exchange rate, with a real depreciation of 10 % raising the trade/GDP ratio across the sample by approximately 4 %. This result, which presumably reflects movements in the prices of tradables relative to non-tradables, raises questions about the widespread use of the trade/GDP ratio as a trade policy indicator, without adjustment for real exchange rate effects.     

日本对东盟OFDI的母国产业升级效应

基于2003—2020年日本对东盟十国的直接投资数据,并选取产业结构高级化IS和合理化IR两种指标来衡量日本国内产业结构演进状况,构建向量自回归模型,实证分析日本对东盟对外直接投资（OFDI）对国内产业升级的影响。长期Johansen协整检验和短期向量误差修正VECM模型的研究结果表明,日本对东盟的直接投资对国内产业结构合理化和高级化存在稳定的均衡关系。最后在借鉴日本对东盟直接投资近50年的投资经验的基础上对中国产业发展提出了相关产业合理化和高级化调整建议。     

产业结构调整下的广州市技能人才需求预测分析

金融危机对广州的传统制造业产生了较大的冲击,调整产业结构,提升创新能力是当前摆脱危机,实现经济新一轮增长的重要途径。在此过程中,技能人才的供给是广州三次产业战略调整的直接制约因素。尤其随着广州产业结构调整节奏的逐步加快,其对技能人才的市场需求将与三次产业的产值结构相匹配而趋于刚性。因此,合理预测广州三次产业发展中对技能人才的需求,增加技能人才的供给能力,是广州产业结构调整中的重要问题。     

从经济危机与产业结构调整的内在联系探索我国产业结构调整方向

从分析经济危机产生的原因出发,探索经济危机产生与产业结构调整的关联性。并结合日本、美国在应对金融、经济危机时采用的产业结构调整对策,根据我国国情,分析我国今后产业产业结构调整方向。     

Bank lending and the business cycle: Does ownership matter in ASEAN countries?

We analyze the lending cyclicality of 213 ASEAN commercial banks over the period 2001–2015. The findings indicate that lending by private banks is procyclical while lending by state banks is countercyclical. Long-term liabilities also move countercyclically for state banks whereas funding for non-state banks in the form of deposit and long-term liabilities is procyclical. Greater lending cyclicality is observed for both private and state banks in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam (CMLV) compared to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore (ASEAN-5). Lending of non-ASEAN based foreign banks shows greater procyclicality than that of domestic banks for the ASEAN-5 countries, although not for the CMLV countries. During the global financial crisis, lending by non-ASEAN based foreign banks contracted sharply even as lending by ASEAN based foreign banks was unaffected. Overall, our results confirm that bank ownership influences lending and funding sensitivity to economic fluctuations.     

Income Distribution in East Asian Developing Countries: an update

This paper portrays recent trends in income distribution in eight countries of the developing East and Southeast Asian region. The available data indicate that the distribution of income in the more developed Asian NIEs, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, has tended to become more unequal in recent years. The ASEAN-4 countries offer an interesting contrast. With the exception of Thailand, the distributions of income in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have shown a trend towards greater equality. The experiences of the East Asian developing countries have demonstrated that sustained GDP growth with full employment could be a most favourable factor explaining the reduction of inequality.