Terms of trade volatility,government spending cyclicality,and economic growth

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth. Based on 5‐year nonoverlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980 to 2010, the paper finds that terms of trade volatility has significant negative effects on economic growth in countries with procyclical government spending. In countries where government spending is countercyclical, terms of trade volatility has no significant effect on growth. Conditional on the mediating role of government spending cyclicality, the GDP share of domestic credit to the private sector has no significant effect on the relationship between growth and terms of trade volatility.     

Catching Up and Convergence: Long-run Growth in East Asia

The paper attempts to combine the traditional learning model with the recent theory of economic growth using Maddison's long‐run real GDP per capita data of the three fastest growing countries in East Asia: Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The authors first explain games of catching‐up among nations, and then explain the learning coefficients of Taiwan and Korea with Japan and the United States through periods before and after World War II. The model of leaning leads to the logistic model of economic growth of convergence between two countries. Using time‐series data, the coefficients of a logistic model are estimated to confirm that the real GDP per capita of Taiwan and Korea are converging to that of Japan and the United States, respectively. Similarly, Japan's GDP per capita converges to that of the United States. The time required for finite convergence for these countries is also estimated.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Economic Growth: The Case of Korea

The current study examines the relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth of Korea and tests the Bhagwati hypothesis which says that FDI inflow is more beneficial to economic growth in an open trade regime in a multivariate framework. Unlike previous works on the concerned hypothesis, a small‐sample cointegration test is applied to the time‐series data. There is no evidence of cointegration among the variables. The Granger causality test results show that, although FDI inflows do not cause per capita real GDP, the latter is revealed to cause the former when the economic crisis dummy variable is included. There is a unidirectional short‐run causality from domestic investment to per capita real GDP growth rate. The case of Korea does not support the Bhagwati hypothesis.     

Chinese economy in the new era

The “new era”, a term introduced by President Xi Jinping, may also be identified as the Xi era, during which China will be transformed from a moderately well‐off to a strong and wealthy nation. In the new era, the Chinese Government will deepen economic reform, widen economic opening and enhance the quality of economic growth. / Our projections show that by 2020, Chinese real GDP per capita, in 2017 prices, will exceed US$10,000, an economic development milestone. By 2031, Chinese real GDP will surpass US real GDP (US$29.4 trillion vs US$29.3 trillion), making China the largest economy in the world. However, Chinese real GDP per capita will still lag behind the US significantly, amounting to only one‐quarter of that of the United States. By 2050, Chinese real GDP will reach US$82.6 trillion, compared to US$51.4 trillion for the United States. However, in terms of real GDP per capita, China will still lag significantly behind, at US$53,000, slightly less than the current level of US real GDP per capita, compared to US$134,000 for the United States.     

The economic and trade effects of the UK–Korea free trade agreement on the United Kingdom,Korea, Japan,China, and the European Union

We explored a comparative static computable general equilibrium model with six regions and 12 sectors to estimate the impacts of the recent UK–Korea free trade agreement (FTA) along with the European Union (EU)–Korea FTA. The empirical results provide quantitative evidence of the impact on national GDP, national exports and imports by sector, and the changes in exports or imports among the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, China, and the EU. The UK–Korea FTA, along with the EU–Korea FTA, increases GDP and welfare for the United Kingdom and Korea; moreover, there is a large increase in automobiles, transport equipment, and machinery exports between Korea and the United Kingdom. The GDP and welfare level of non-member countries such as Japan and China will slightly decline. Exports from the United Kingdom and Korea to non-member countries are also expected to decrease in most manufacturing sectors. The UK–Korea FTA will lead to increases in imports between the United Kingdom and Korea due to mutual trade creation effects and trade diversion effects. However, non-member countries such as Japan's exports are expected to experience a large decline in automobiles to the United Kingdom and in most manufacturing products to Korea due to the negative impact of the UK–Korea FTA.     

Economic openness and income growth in developing countries: a regional comparative analysis

This article examines and compares the openness–growth relationship between the high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) and the rest of the developing world (Sub-Saharan Africa-SSA, South East Asia-SEA and Latin America and Caribbean-LAC). We applied the SYS-GMM estimator to a dynamic standard endogenous growth model which relates economic openness to real per capita income growth. A few key findings emerged from this study. First, economic openness led to increase in real per capita GDP growth in HPAEs and SSA, but not in LAC and SEA. Second, openness to trade accelerated income convergence among countries in SSA, SEA, and HPAEs, however, whereas foreign direct investment inflows accelerated income convergence only in SSA, it rather de-accelerated income convergence in HPAEs. Thirdly, the HPAEs recorded higher positive effect of openness on real per capita GDP growth than any of the other developing regions because they created sufficient stock of human capital that enhanced their absorptive capacity of imported advanced technology. They also created a more stable macroeconomic environment which consolidated the income growth gains from openness. The results of this study highlight the importance of the implementation of policies that are complementary to economic openness in promoting economic growth in the developing world.     

中国未来经济增长及其国际经济地位展望

论文在分析国内外历史资料和经济增长因素的基础上 ,对中国和目前经济总量世界排名前五位国家的未来经济增长率、国内生产总值以及中国人均国内生产总值进行了预测 ,得出以下基本结论 :中国国内生产总值将于 2 0 0 5年超过法国 ,2 0 0 6年超过英国 ,2 0 1 2年超过德国 ,本世纪中叶 ,有可能超过日本 ,成为世界第二经济大国 ,但在本世纪内很难超过美国 ,成为世界第一经济大国 ;2 0 50年中国人均国内生产总值将达到中等发达国家 2 0 0 0年的水平。     

Political institutions and economic volatility

We examine the effect of political ‘institutions’ on economic growth volatility, using data from more than 100 countries over the period 1960 to 2005, taking into account various control variables as suggested in previous studies. Our indicator of volatility is the relative standard deviation of the growth rate of GDP per capita. The results of a dynamic panel model indicate that democracy reduces economic volatility. We also find that some dimensions of political instability and policy uncertainty increase economic volatility.     

Population growth and development: the case of Bangladesh

In a poor, overly populated country such as Bangladesh, some believe that a high rate of population growth is a cause of poverty which impedes economic development. Population growth would therefore be exogenous to economic development. However, others believe that rapid population growth is a consequence rather than a cause of poverty. Population growth is therefore endogenous to economic development. Findings are presented from an investigation of whether population growth has been exogenous or endogenous with respect to Bangladesh's development process during the past 3 decades. The increase in per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a measure of development. Data on population, real GDP per capita, and real investment share of GDP are drawn from the Penn World Table prepared by Summers and Heston in 1991. The data are annual and cover the period 1959-90. Analysis of the data indicate that population growth is endogenous to Bangladesh's development process. These findings are reflected both in the Granger causality tests and the decompositions of variances of detrended real GDP per capita and population growth.     

Technological innovations and economic prosperity: A time series analysis

Using a univariate decomposition of per capita real GDP into its permanent trend and irregular components, the objective of this paper is to measure, rank, and compare the relative importance of the major technological innovations of the past two centuries as measured by their contribution to the growth rate of real per capita GDP. The paper uses the growth model and Beveridge and Nelson’s (1981) univariate decomposition method to measure and to compare the economic impact of random technological shocks, as measured by the average increase in real per capita GDP during sub-periods of major technological advancements.     

中国人均能源碳排放因素分解及减排途径分析

以1981-2008年中国一次能源消费总量、人口数和GDP数据为基础,通过实证分析经济发展、能源强度和能源结构对这一时期人均碳排放的贡献发现:经济发展拉动了人均能源碳排放的增长,能源强度的降低抑制了人均能源碳排放的增长,能源结构的变化在研究期内先对人均能源碳排放起促进作用,然后起抑制作用,其拐点出现在1997年,但研究期内贡献不显著.近年来,能源结构的贡献却有逐步增强的趋势.     

Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration

This paper investigates flows of inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and FDI-to-GDP ratios in a sample of 62 countries over a 30 year time span. Using several endogenous structural break procedures (allowing for one and two break points), we find that: (1) the great majority of the series have structural breaks in the last 15 years, (2) post-break FDI and FDI/GDP ratios are substantially higher than the pre-break values, and (3) most breaks seem to be related to globalization, regional economic integration, economic growth, or political instability. Static and dynamic panel-data analyses accounting for and/or addressing endogeneity, simultaneity, nonstationarity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence show that FDI is negatively related to exchange rate volatility and GDP per capita, but positively related to some regional integration agreements, trade openness, GDP, and GDP growth. Most notably, the European Union is the only regional economic integration unit found to consistently have significant and positive effects on FDI.     

Per capita output convergence across Asian countries: Evidence from covariate unit root test with an endogenous structural break

This study investigates long-run convergence of per capita output across ten Asian countries over 1960 to 2014 by taking advantage of possible economic growth determinants, which may be responsible for setting Asian countries on a long-term steady-state growth path. We simultaneously examine the presence of output convergence in the region, as well as the statistical significance of these economic growth determinants, by using a unit root test with a stationary covariate. In addition, the study allows for the presence of endogenous structural changes in the time series under investigation in order to capture sharp drops in per capita outputs, which may be brought about by influential economic events, such as serious economic slumps in domestic economies or the global financial crises in 1997–98 and 2008–09. The limiting distribution of the covariate unit root test that permits structural breaks is also derived. The results show significant evidence to support the convergence hypothesis. In particular, asymptotically absolute convergence holds among Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. In addition, Thailand shows a convergence tendency in terms of asymptotically relative convergence toward Singapore. Malaysia, Indonesia, and India also turn out to converge toward Hong Kong in an asymptotically relative sense. Certain potential growth determinants, such as the trade/GDP ratio, inflation rate, government expenditure/GDP ratio, and quality of human capital, may help these countries achieve and maintain the long-run convergence process toward the reference countries in the region.     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China

China has experienced a dramatic demographic transition since the latter half of the twentieth century, and thus, assessing the global economic implications is an important issue. This article uses time-series data on China to estimate the determinants of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. According to the results of the presented co-integration analysis, population has a significantly negative impact on GDP per capita, while savings rate, total factor productivity and degree of industrialization have significantly positive impacts on GDP per capita. These results suggest that the share of the working-age population relative to the total population does not have a strong influence on GDP per capita. Therefore, the contribution of the working-age population to economic growth might not be as large as previously assumed. It is also possible that an increase in savings, remarkable industrialization and rapid technological progress have all stimulated economic growth in China greatly.     

The driving forces of the level and the growth rate of real per capita income in Indonesia

We investigate the driving forces behind the level and the growth rate in real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia. The ultimate reasons and the proximate causes underlying Indonesia's economic growth since the mid-1960s are still unclear. In the literature there have been at least three ways of investigating the driving forces of economic growth in Indonesia, namely: growth accounting system, regression and causality. The difference and improvement in this article is that we employed a two-step bounds testing approach to cointegration, which has not been done before; it uses the endogenous growth model to consider 12 policy variables and two external factors that potentially affect per capita income, this number is more than that has been done before. The empirical results that we obtained using this two-step bounds testing approach help us draw policy implications that if or when implemented would be expected to increase the growth of real per capita income, as well as the welfare of the people of Indonesia. Economic growth in Indonesia is largely driven by government policy, so the ability to increase Indonesia's economic growth rate, in the long run, will largely depend on the implementation of appropriate government policies.     

Effect of trade openness on regional economic growth in China: revisiting the discussion

Increasing openness contributes to economic growth in developing countries, but the endogeneity problem impedes drawing this conclusion. This paper uses the constructed trade share to circumvent the effects of endogeneity according to a method proposed by Frankel and Romer. The results demonstrate that increasing openness has a positive impact on provinces’ GDP and GDP per capita. In addition, an increase in lagged openness is beneficial for present economic growth, and even openness gained many years ago, which is measured by the number of treaty ports, makes a difference in present economic growth.     

The Many Dimensions of Gender Equality and Their Impact on Economic Growth

This study explores the multidimensional nature of gender equality and its influence on economic growth across 64 countries from 2000–2011 using an endogenous growth model. After controlling for standard growth correlates, the empirical results show that countries that protect the economic rights of women experience higher real GDP per capita growth rates. Furthermore, after controlling for a country’s religious affiliation, the importance of religion to the lives of people living in a country had a negative influence on economic growth. Intensely held religious beliefs are strongly correlated with gender inequitable views. These attitudes might serve as an important channel through which these gender biases are institutionalized in economic practices and act to slow economic growth.     

Investment under Trade Policy Uncertainty: an Empirical Investigation*

The link between trade policy uncertainty and the share of investment in GDP per capita is investigated using panel data drawn from over a hundred countries for the period 1960–2000. Five indicators of trade policy are used. Two specifications of volatility for each of the trade policy indicators are constructed as measures of trade policy uncertainty. Panel regression results suggest a robust correlation between the volatility of trade policy indicators and the investment share. A significant negative impact of trade policy volatility on the investment share is found in most trade policy indicators with an exception—the volatility of the trade share indicator more closely associated with volatility in quantity than in prices has a significant positive impact on the investment share.     

Trade volume and economic growth in the MENA region: Goods or services?

This paper explores the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of goods and service trade on the economic performance of MENA countries for the period 1960–2011. While the MENA region has been widely neglected in the trade and growth literature, this paper offers a decomposition of MENA GDP growth in order to disentangle the contributions of both service and goods trade. The results show a positive association between real GDP and both service and goods trade. The interaction term between trade in goods and trade in services is negative, suggesting that as goods trade increases, the marginal effect of service trade on real GDP decreases. However, the overall effect of service trade on real GDP is positive. The decomposition of GDP growth reveals a greater impact of goods trade, although service trade is important, and for most countries greater than the effect of tertiary enrolment.