Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets

This study investigates the factors affecting the loan quality of banking sector in seventeen emerging and developing markets using quarterly panel dataset covering period of 2010–2019 and utilising feasible generalised least square methodology. Our empirical analysis suggests that inflation and lending rates negatively affect the banks’ loan quality measured by non-performing loans. On the contrary, economic growth and capital adequacy show a positive impact on banks’ loan quality. The inclusion of the ratio of net open position in foreign exchange to capital and its’ lagged values, as an additional factor, has marked out this research from other studies. Our results reveal that the ratio has a significant negative impact on loan quality in banking. This finding, as it was also seen in Asian crises of 1997, indicates that the higher the ratio net open position in foreign exchange to capital cause moral hazard problem leading to the higher non-performing loans in banking sectors.

     

Net foreign assets of Dutch commercial banks, 1984–1990

Summary In many econometric models it is assumed that the amount of net foreign assets of the commercial banks is determined by the commercial banks themselves. In this article we show that it is more likely that net foreign assets are determined by the transactions of the private sector.The author thanks Jakob de Haan, Flip de Kam, Simon Kuipers, Elmer Sterken, Cees Sterks, Dick Zelhorst and an anonvmous referee for their valuable comments on an earlier version.     

跨境资本周期性波动对中国银行部门的风险溢出机制分析

本文从周期角度出发,构建结构模型和双重△CoVaR模型,探究跨境负债和资产的扩张或收缩对银行部门的风险溢出机制。结果显示:第一,跨境资本周期性波动对银行部门具有显著的风险溢出效应,跨境负债波动的溢出效应强于跨境资产。第二,跨境资本周期性波动通过影响中小银行风险承担和风险实现以及大型银行的风险放大作用影响银行部门。特别地,股份制银行在受冲击和风险放大方面均具有重要作用。第三,跨境资本扩张带来的风险承担会显著提高未来银行业系统性风险实现水平。本文为提高跨境资本管理质量提供了科学依据。     

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANY MODEL IN THE REFORM OF INDONESIA'S BANKING SECTOR

Lack of satisfactory progress with reform of the banking sector may imply that the chosen remedies were unworkable in the Indonesian context. These remedies, suggested by the international community, appear not to have taken proper account of the commercial and political ramifications of the new institutions and mechanisms that were to be put in place. Of key importance is the practical difficulty of finding suitable buyers for banks and assets taken over by the new bank restructuring agency. Almost the entire corporate sector was in distress as a result of the crisis, while foreign buyers were reluctant to commit themselves given an inadequate legal system as well as significant nationalistic opposition to the sale of corporate assets to foreign entities. This article discusses reasons for the failure to achieve several principal objectives of the reforms, and canvasses alternative approaches that might be more successful.     

中国银行业经营绩效:基于主成分分析法的研究

本文运用主成分和因子分析等统计方法,建立综合得分模型,比较了银行业在2003～2008年经营绩效变动情况。通过分析得出以下基本结论:从2008年开始向全球蔓延的金融危机已经对中国银行业造成一定的冲击,并可能进一步恶化,因此我们需要高度关注银行资产质量变化,防止不良资产率的进一步上升。     

A monetary submodel for the dutch economy: Some preliminary results

Summary This econometric model is on an annual basis and has been estimated for the period 1953–1969 using the two-stages least-squares method. All behavioral equations are based on a partial adjustment mechanism. The behavior of the public is expressed by the demand for currency, demand deposits and time-and-savings deposits. The behavior of the banking system is described by a required reserves identity and by the demand for excess reserves, borrowed reserves and net foreign assets. The main instruments of monetary policy under the direct control of the central bank are explicitly included in the analysis. Some impact multipliers and elasticities are shown.     

Competitive Conditions in the Tanzanian Commercial Banking Industry

Abstract: Since 1991, Tanzania has made important improvements in reforming its financial sector, dismantling the state‐dominated banking sector and allowing foreign bank entry. Despite this, the banking industry is still concentrated with low accessibility to financial services. Large foreign banks dominate the financial landscape, preventing competitive dynamism to permeate the sector. This paper analyses the competitive nature of the Tanzanian banking industry from 2004 to 2008. Utilizing a rich bank level data set, we employ the Panzar–Rosse methodology to compute the competitive index, taking into account risk, efficiency, regulatory and macroeconomic factors. The results show that banks in Tanzania earned their income under conditions of oligopolistic conduct. Moreover, the competitive index derived from an interest revenue equation was not significantly different from that obtained using an aggregate revenue measure. This suggests that the degree of contestability from traditional intermediation activities approximates overall bank behaviour. The overall message is that greater market contestability can be achieved by adopting measures aimed at stimulating competitiveness in the banking sector, including consolidating gains on the macroeconomic front and allowing more foreign bank entry so as to increase the spread of banking services.     

Cost efficiency,economies of scale,technological progress and productivity in Indonesian banks

This study estimates cost efficiency, economies of scale, technological progress, and productivity growth among Indonesian banks from 1993 to 2000. Average cost efficiency for the banking sector over this period was 70%. However, there is a marked difference in cost efficiency before and after the Asian economic crisis. The banking sector cost efficiency was 80% prior to the crisis and 53% after the crisis. Moreover, results indicate that private-owned banks and joint venture/foreign banks were more efficient than public-owned banks. Furthermore, the relationship between cost efficiency and total assets suggests an optimum bank asset size. Cost reductions attributed to technological progress and economies of scale were greater prior to the Asian economic crisis. Larger decreases in total factor productivity are evident in the post-crisis period.     

外资银行进入对东道国银行业效率的影响——东欧国家的经验与中国的实践

东欧国家银行改革的经验表明,外资银行进入能普遍提高东道国银行业的效率。但是,外资银行发挥积极作用亦取决于一定条件:东道国经济发展水平、银行业规模及发育程度、监管水平、银行业的改革路径和引资方式。本文在综述东欧国家银行业改革经验的基础上,提出中国银行业改革的7个命题,并用中国24家银行1999～2006年间的数据构建模型进行检验,最后得出结论:短期内外资银行进入会导致东道国银行业利润水平下降、风险管理水平上升,在中国的背景下可以认定这是外资银行积极作用的发挥;外资银行机构数量的增加和持股比重的上升都能刺激中国银行业效率的改进,但是外资银行持股比重的影响更具普遍性;不同类型银行对外资银行进入的反应存在差异,国有商业银行反应比较迟钝,而股份制和城市商业银行反应比较迅速。     

Offshore Banking and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of an offshore banking sector on economic growth. For this purpose, we specified a growth equation for the 41 countries that report their external positions to the Bank for International Settlements and evaluated how the size of an offshore banking sector, measured by external assets or liabilities contributed to the countries' per capita income growth. The distinctive features of this paper are that compared to previous studies, we used more comprehensive data and more flexible empirical specifications to investigate the effects of offshore banking. We find that the size of an offshore banking sector and economic growth have a nonlinear relationship, and the growth effect tends to increase as the scale of offshore banking increases.     

中国外资银行服务贸易自由化的经济影响研究——基于可计算一般均衡SIC-GE模型的定量分析

本文利用2005～2009年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行进入壁垒的实际数据,通过设立银行业收益和成本方程发现并估算出消除壁垒带来的两方面行业直接效应,即外资银行服务价格水平下降1.9%和国内银行业经济效率改进1.8%。在此基础上利用国家信息中心可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)就壁垒消除对整个经济体的影响进行了系统评估。测算结果表明,两个直接效应中,改进国内银行业经济效率的经济影响是主要的;从宏观层面上看,短期内能够带来就业和GDP相对基准情景增长,同时居民消费、投资和出口有所增长。进口随着国内需求的扩张略有增长,净出口明显扩大。总体上,研究结果表明,2005年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行贸易壁垒是一项较为有效的政策举措,具有较好的示范作用。     

Measuring Net Foreign Assets： The Case of China

This paper discusses two methods of measuring net foreign assets（NFA）： directly using the financial account and indirectly using the current account. The former method is found to be more accurate than the latter method. The paper also includes a detailed discussion of the valuation methodology. The results show that China＇s NFA are much lower than the cumulative current account surplus or the cumulative foreign exchange reserves. This leads to an underestimation of growth in foreign direct investment and an overestimation of the capacity of foreign exchange reserves to cope with possible withdrawals. Therefore, the Chinese Government should pay more attention to valuation issues to obtain more accurate measurement of NFA. Meanwhile, the Chinese monetary authority should relax its control on the foreign exchange settlement system, allow the private sector to hold a certain amount of foreign exchange, and encourage foreign assets to be denominated in RMB to solve structural problems, including entity and currency mismatch     

ECONOMIC GROWTH, CONVERGENCE CLUBS, AND THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT

This paper aims to show and test the existence of a povertytrap linked to the development of the banking sector. Our theoreticalmodel exhibits multiple steady state equilibria due to a reciprocalexternality between the banking sector and the real sector.Growth in the real sector causes the financial market to expand,thereby increasing banking competition and efficiency. In return,the development of the banking sector raises the net yield onsavings and enhances capital accumulation and growth. The aimof our econometric tests is to check the existence of multiplesteady states associated with financial and educational development.     

Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Transmission of Financial Crises

Central banks usually “park” their foreign exchange reserves in safe or highly liquid foreign assets. The paper illustrates that when central banks invest instead in risky foreign assets, then domestic banking crises can cause a crisis in the market for the foreign asset and vice versa. The paper takes its motivation from Asian central banks’ recent appetite for US government agency-debt securities such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.     

Forecasting the optimal structure of the Russian banking system

The systemic approach is used to substantiate the conclusion that in sustainable banking systems, the number of banks and the structure of the banking sector depend on the amount of the dominant bank’s assets. It is shown that if Sberbank’s share in the Russian banking system’s total asset is 0.26, the number of banks in it should decrease several times and stay within the range of 55–165.     

The anatomy of large valuation episodes

We examine cases in which there is a large shift in a country’s net foreign asset position due to the re-valuation of its foreign assets and/or foreign liabilities. We highlight the differences in large valuation shocks between countries characterized by large gross stocks of foreign assets and foreign liabilities and countries exhibiting large net external positions. Finally, we analyze macroeconomic dynamics in the neighborhood of large valuation episodes.     

Transfer Effect in National Price Levels

A model of national price levels is developed to lay bare implicit assumptions behind the conventional view on the effect of productivity differentials and net foreign assets. The effect of productivity on national price levels is determined by the interaction of several countervailing channels, implying that the net effect can go in either direction for reasonable parameter values. By comparison, net foreign assets have a more robust effect on national price levels than productivity differentials. Basic theoretical implications are confirmed by the price level data of OECD countries. JEL no. C82, F31, F41     

South Africa's financial sector ten years on: performance since democracy

The South African financial sector, defined as the banking, insurance and securities industries, has contributed to the growth of the economy since democracy in terms of growth in assets and value added, although its provision of financial services to the poor has been less impressive. The article takes a broad approach to evaluating the performance of the sector in terms of the balance between stability and innovation, and the balance between efficiency and allocation of resources. While the financial system has proved to be stable, innovation has generally been for the high‐value, contested market. In terms of cost efficiencies and provision of services to small businesses and poorer consumers, there is room for improvement. The performance of the sector is linked to the regulatory regime, and the extent to which the sector will be able to improve its allocative performance will be influenced by mooted regulatory changes.     

外资银行进入对信贷资源配置的影响——以新欧盟成员国为例

本文从信贷规模、信贷结构变化两方面分析了外资银行进入新欧盟成员国后,大大提高了东道国的信贷资源供给,使得东道国信贷规模扩大;随着外资银行对东道国渗透程度的增加,其业务重点将逐渐从对优质客户资源的争夺转为向中小企业拓展信贷业务。随着信贷评估制度和技术的改善,家庭部门信贷比例也不断上升。外资银行进入对提高东道国信贷资源配置效率有着重大意义。     

External adjustment

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even, for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets—the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position—the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations. JEL no. F21, F32, F36, F41