合肥城市人口空间分布变化特征研究

利用1978、1991、2000和2004年人口统计数据和城市用地现状图,在ArcGIS8.3软件支持下,以街道和社区为研究单元,对合肥市人口增长的空间差异和人口空间分布形态变化特征进行了可视化分析.结果表明,合肥市目前仍然是单核心城市,城市化正处于由早期阶段向成熟阶段转变时期;城市人口增长经历了从1978年以后的均衡增长到集聚增长模式的转变,2000年以来则呈现出扩散增长的态势;人口空间分布逐渐由1978年前的"风扇型"分布形态转变为"同心圆"式分布形态;人口郊区化趋势初步显现.     

人口分布与经济增长的倒U型关系:理论与检验——中国256个城市空间面板数据实证:2001-2014

人口分布异质性和经济增长异质性是普遍的空间现象。文章以空间异质性为切入点,强调空间视角在人口分布对经济增长影响研究中的作用。基于新古典增长理论,在考虑人口密度对经济增长的集聚效应和拥挤效应后,发现理论上两者存在倒"U"型的关系;基于空间计量分析,通过中国256个城市2001-2014的空间面板数据验证了人口密度与经济增长倒"U"型关系存在的事实。与此同时,本文发现传统相关议题研究存在缺乏空间视角、忽视空间自相关性而结论有失严谨性等不足,指出未来的研究不仅理论上需要考虑空间因素,实证方法上也应该考虑空间分析技术和空间计量方法,以消除空间依赖性的影响。本文认为,城市人口聚集或疏解是一个自然过程,特大城市人口调控在"疏"而     

不发达地区人口红利消失现象及对策探讨——以四川省自贡市为例

在人口红利消失背景下,不同城市不同地区不仅在进行人力资源和人才的争夺,人口也会向中心城市、发达地区集聚,不发达地区的人口、人才和人力资源流失问题则更为严峻。论文以四川省自贡市为例,从微观视角分析了案例企业的招聘情况,从中观视角分析城市人口、劳动力、人才、紧缺人才的现状以及与城市经济发展的匹配情况及存在的问题。本文认为,不发达地区应改变重视人才忽视人口的政策导向,应从本地区经济与人口协调发展的角度,通过政策引导、环境优化等多方面措施使人口、劳动力、人才和紧缺人才形成金字塔式的合理结构。     

2000—2010年北京市人口空间分布与变动研究

根据2000年和最新的2010年人口普查资料分析了2010年北京人口的空间分布特征,以及近10年人口的空间分布变动。研究表明,北京人口增长十分迅速,老城区人口依然在增加,仅有西城和崇文区出现了人口净减少,其他区域人口都在增加,总人口越来越多地集中到城市功能拓展区和城市发展新区;人口分布不均,人口密度从市区到郊区递减;人口城市化进入了一个新的阶段,市区基本为100%城市化,没有出现中心衰退,城市郊区化和远郊区农村城市化加速发展;人口增长主要是常住外来人口的增加,并且户籍人口和常住外来人口都在向城市功能拓展区和城市发展新区集中。最后探讨了它对城市和区域规划和政策的启示。     

基于人口流动的区域城镇化特征及差异化策略探讨——苏浙皖地区的讨论

对于人口流出地和人口流入地,由于其流动人口的结构性差异,"人的城镇化诉求"也应有显著差异。基于"人的城镇化"视角,从人口、经济、居住环境、公共服务及城乡协调五个方面对苏浙皖不同人口流入水平地区城镇化的差异化特征做出了探讨,并提出了差别化的应对策略。认为提高居民收入和福利水平是"人的城镇化"的本质内涵,对于人口高流入地,这一目标更为迫切;并回答了应如何正确应对"人的城镇化"的空间差异性这一问题。     

人口输入型地区的城镇化发展特征与趋势——以广东省为例

在国家新型城镇化背景下,东部沿海发达省份作为人口输入型地区,承担着实现农业转移人口市民化、推进城镇化模式战略转型的重任,关系到整个国家城镇化的平稳、持续健康发展。以广东省为例,首先基于数据分析和实证调查相结合的方法,从人口流动、人口结构、人口"市民化"等视角分析广东城镇化发展的特征和趋势,以此形成对人口输入型地区城镇化的基本认识;其次,对未来广东城镇化发展可能面临的挑战进行展望;最后,基于广东省的分析,从城镇化发展模式、发展质量等方面探讨人口输入型地区城镇化发展方向,提出人口输入型地区城镇化转型发展的路径和对策建议。     

基于城市绿色空间功能的"宜居重庆"规划理念

城市绿色空间不仅是链接城市聚居体各阶层的融合纽带,还是构建宜居城市的重要指标,为创建和谐社会贡献重要力量.本文以城市绿色空间为桥梁.从城市绿色空间的内涵理解入手,剖析城市绿色空间的生态服务功能,针对重庆市区域特点,提出了将"城市绿色空闻(空间)-城市环境艺术(视角)-地域文化(人间)"为一体的"宜居重庆"规划理念.     

基于山东省137区县的人口分布时空特征探究

本文采用空间自相关分析等算法,根据山东省16地市2014-2018年137个区县的总人口数量,分析山东省人口分布的时空特征.结果表明:山东省人口分布比较均衡,南多北少,以菏泽市、济南市、青岛等市的市区为人口重心向外扩散;总人口总体呈现上升趋势,省内各个城市中,济南、青岛都市圈人口有较大的提升,其余地区保持稳定或下滑;随着经济的发展,在交通便利、产业关联等因素的影响下,山东半岛南部和青岛周围地区形成了人口的高值密集区.     

城乡居民收入差距对城镇化影响的地区差异及动态演进

研究目标:对比城乡居民收入差距对常住人口城镇化与户籍人口城镇化影响的地区差异，从动态演进中探索城镇化优化的人口模式。研究方法:运用刘易斯二元经济理论与托达罗模型建立了面板数据空间杜宾模型进行实证分析。研究发现:在样本期内，无论是常住人口城镇化还是户籍人口城镇化，其空间格局均存在地区不平衡现象，相对而言，常住人口城镇化在空间集聚的外溢性、城乡居民收入差距以及城镇化基础经济水平的平衡性等方面具有更好的空间优化条件，提高农业转移人口市民化目前对城镇化的空间优化只能发挥稳定、润滑作用；从动态发展趋势判断，东中部地区的农业转移人口以常住性流入城市、西部地区以户籍性流入城市，能够更好地促进东中部地区常住人口城镇化的空间溢出效应形成，同时借助户籍人口城镇化的润滑平衡作用形成东西部夹击态势，有望促成我国常住人口城镇化高水平空间格局的优化。研究创新:将户籍人口城镇化引入城乡居民收入差距与城镇化关系研究中，既拓展了现有城乡居民收入差距与城镇化关系的研究内容，也凸显了农业转移人口市民化在新型城镇化空间格局优化中的效应。研究价值:通过对比分析以及模型模拟，了解到“十四五”时期我国城乡居民收入差距缩小的条件下，...     

基于多源全样本数据的深圳市过剩通勤空间特征研究

随着我国社会经济的快速发展,国内大型城市"职住分离"程度持续增大,深圳市作为一线城市,人口规模大,经济发展迅速,同样存在一定程度的"职住分离"状况,产生了通勤过剩现象.以深圳市为研究对象,运用线性规划模型和空间分析等方法对深圳市多源全样本人口数据进行分析,计算深圳市过剩通勤指标,分析深圳市过剩通勤空间特征.研究结果表明深圳市过剩通勤处于较高水平,但整体通勤消耗率中等,城市过剩通勤存在空间分异情况.本研究可服务于城市规划和城市交通规划,对评价和优化深圳市职住空间提供重要的参考,同时为深圳市改善城市交通问题、合理制定规划政策提供重要依据.     

适应人口数量和结构变动的刚性住房需求研究——以上海市为例

相对于影响住房供给和需求的其他因素,人口因素具有相对稳定型,因此从人口角度来分析住房市场是一个相当理想的视角。上海作为一个生育率超低水平的城市和快速移民的城市,人口年龄结构的变化也表现得尤其剧烈。准确把握上海的人口状况和结构变动,做好城市住房管理工作,维持稳定的住房价格,保证住房市场得到稳定健康发展,同时提高居民的居住福利,有序推动城市化过程,是上海发展面临的突出挑战。分析上海市户籍人口和常住人口不同的刚性住房需求变迁,得到外来常住流动人口的刚性住房需求将成为城市住房需求的主要动力。基于外来人口的特性,未来本市人口住房购买性刚性需求比例将降低,相应的以租赁等形式的刚性住房需求旺盛,且多以低档小户型住房需求为主。同时,外来常住流动人口中集体户人口增加,集体式公寓等住房类型的刚性需求相应增加。     

Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms

This paper studies the different mechanisms and the dynamics through which demography is channeled to the economy. We analyze the role of demographic changes in the economic development process by studying the transitional and the long-run impact of both the rate of population growth and the initial population size on the levels of per capita human capital and income. We do that in an enlarged Lucas–Uzawa model with intergenerational altruism. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of the variables along the balanced growth path, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard long-run growth effects. We prove that the level effect of the population rate of growth is non-negative (positive in the empirically most relevant case) for the average level of human capital, but a priori ambiguous for the level of per capita income due to the interaction of three transmission mechanisms of demographic shocks, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard (altruism and human capital accumulation). Overall, the sign of the level effects of population growth depends on preference and technology parameters, but numerically we show that the joint negative effect of dilution and altruism is always stronger than the induced positive human capital effect. The growth effect of population growth depends basically on the attitude to intergenerational altruism and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, we also prove that the long-run level effects of population size on per capita human capital and income may be negative, nil, or positive, depending on the relationship between preferences and technology, while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long term.     

基于流动人口特征的首都人口疏解与管控

流动人口的迁移行为是多种因素共同作用的结果,关于人口迁移的政策制定应建立在对流动人口特征及变化趋势的深入了解基础之上。在京流动人口以劳动年龄人口为主,对于增加劳动力供给和缓解老龄化压力做出了显著的贡献。多数流动人口在京居住依赖租房,房租是导致其生活成本日益上升的重要因素;流动人口的社会融入程度较低,尤其城乡接合部地区社会隔离现象较为显著,大量流动人口未能有效融入现代城市的生产生活体系。首都的人口管控与城市治理是一个系统工程,既要通过“控”“收”联动,加强人口的有序流动,也要疏解与引导相结合,使流动人口的结构与行为更符合首都发展的需要。     

土地财政与最优城市规模

土地是有限的,完全依靠土地收入的发展模式是不可持续的。本文主要考察土地财政作为地方政府的一种融资渠道,城市建设用地规模的使用是否与城市人口规模的增加相协调,是否存在过度扩张城市面积促进地区经济发展的现象。为了分析土地出让收入(地租)、公共品供给以及城市规模之间的关系,本文以乔治亨利定理为基础,并引入林达尔均衡条件建立起最优城市人口密度理论模型。采用1999～2009年31个省面板数据对中国城市成本收益模型进行计量分析,结果表明全国26个省低于估算的最优城市人口密度,验证了中国存在城市面积的扩张与人口的增加不协调发展的情况。     

Developing a Census Data System in China

China has conducted four population censuses since 1949. A large amount of important information about population, education, employment, migration and urbanization was collected in the most recent 1990 census. This paper will examine main features and key issues of the Chinese population census and the census data. Some fundamental considerations in building a computerized census data system and concerning the ways in which a system might be developed will be discussed. Themain objective and features of the on-going Population GIS of China project will also be examined.     

The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging

We analyze the effects of anticipated population aging within a general equilibrium R&D-based endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. In doing so we model aging as a rise of longevity and a simultaneous drop in fertility. In contrast to an unanticipated rise of longevity, consumers increase their savings and reduce their consumption long before the rise of longevity actually happens. This implies that individuals save more in anticipation of aging, which puts downward pressure on the interest rate and raises economic growth through an increase in R&D incentives. Irrespective of the anticipation effect, the economic change at impact is not smooth but still features a kink in consumption.     

Allocating U.S. Department of Homeland Security funds to States with explicit equity, population and energy facility security criteria

Allocation of funds to states and local governments by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been challenged for relying too heavily on the U.S. Patriot Act formula that contains set-asides for each state. Yet, DHS's recent efforts to include more vulnerability/risk information have been criticized for lacking transparency. Using only off-the-shelf data and an off-the-shelf optimization model, which is a compromise between politically grounded formulas and complex analyses supported by massive data manipulations, the authors maximize need (defined and represented here as funds to protect electrical-generating capacity) subject to explicit constraints based on political equity and population size but introduce risk-related criteria as well in the form of ease of securing the facilities and public perception of risk. The model results closely approximate the DHS allocations at the state level when electricity generation and its retail price are maximized subject to moderate set-asides for political equity and population size. The advantages of this approach are that the results are transparent and sensitivity analysis is relatively easy to do. The advantages and disadvantages of the approach presented here are compared with more sophisticated alternatives.     

Demographic transition and economic growth in China,India and Pakistan

The authors of this paper adopt a Solow–Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth. The results, based on data from seventy countries over the period 1961–2003, reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total population, and negatively related to child and old-age dependency ratios. Based on these results, they find that population dynamics explain 46 percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period 1961–2003, 39 percent in India, and 25 percent in Pakistan. Furthermore, population dynamics are expected to have a positive effect on economic growth in India and Pakistan over the period 2005–2050, and a negative effect in China.     

Probabilistic Population Projections for India with Explicit Consideration of the Education-Fertility Link

Among the different sources of uncertainty in population forecasting, uncertain changes in the structure of heterogeneous populations have received little attention so far, although they can have significant impacts. Here we focus on the effect of changes in the educational composition of the population on the overall fertility of the population in the presence of strong fertility differentials by education. With data from India we show that alternative paths of future female enrolment in education result in significantly different total fertility rates (TFR) for the country over the coming decades, even assuming identical fertility trends within each education group. These results from multi-state population projections by education are then translated into a fully probabilistic population projection for India in which the results of alternative education scenarios are assumed to expand the uncertainty range of the future TFR in the total population.
This first attempt to endogenize structural change with respect to education—which is the greatest measurable source of fertility heterogeneity in Asia—has resulted from a larger exercise of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis to collect empirical information, scientific arguments as well as informed opinions about likely future population trends in Asia from a large number of population experts in the region. In this process, future changes in the educational composition of the population have been identified as a key driver of future fertility.
The actual probabilistic population projections for India show that with high certainty, the Indian population will continue to grow to about 1.3 billion over the next quarter of a century. After that the uncertainty will get much wider, ranging from a continued strong increase to the beginning of a population decline in India.