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1.
Despite its sizeable compliance costs, we are unable to document any clear benefits of SEC Rule 201 in ensuring fair valuations and price stability, promoting higher liquidity and execution quality, or preventing a sudden flash crash or prolonged market crises. Our daily and intraday analysis of data both before and after Rule 201 finds that short sellers are naturally more active before the occurrence of negative returns, not after significant price declines. Our simulation results show that Rule 201 further curtails short selling during normal periods, but is not binding on short sellers during the volatile period of the 2008 financial crisis.  相似文献   

2.
We analyze a model of mortgage markets, housing tenure choice, heterogeneous agents, and default with closed form solutions. We uncover new insights which may inspire empirical work, and we ground already established insights in a series of tractable expressions. Then we study optimal loan‐to‐value (LTV) regulation and show that the choice of an LTV cap should balance the opposing forces of access to homeownership and the negative externalities associated with default. Homeownership affordability concerns induce procyclical elements into optimal regulation which attenuate the countercyclical regulation justified by the negative default externalities.  相似文献   

3.
Studying a large sample of publicly available data on failures to deliver, we find that stocks reaching threshold levels of failures become significantly overvalued. Where short sale constraints are especially binding, we report extreme overpricing and subsequent reversals. These findings support the overvaluation hypothesis, although the mispricing is likely to be difficult to arbitrage because of extreme shorting costs. In addition, threshold stocks with low short interest become more overvalued than threshold stocks with high short interest. This suggests that the level of short interest reflects supply‐side effects when the examination conditions on the difficulty of borrowing shares.  相似文献   

4.
This paper proposes a risk‐based explanation for the book‐to‐market (B/M) effect. I decompose B/M into net operating asset‐to‐market (NOA/M) and net financing asset‐to‐market (NFA/M) components. Portfolio analysis shows that (i) positive B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M are positively related to future returns and (ii) negative B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M are negatively related to future returns. To the extent that positive B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M act as measures of asset risk and negative B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M act as inverse measures of borrowing risk, the nonlinear relations between B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M and future returns provide some evidence to support the risk‐based explanation for the book‐to‐market effect in stock returns.  相似文献   

5.
The recent financial crisis has highlighted once more that interconnectedness in the financial system is a major source of systemic risk. I suggest a practical way to levy regulatory capital charges based on the degree of interconnectedness among financial institutions. Namely, the charges are based on the institution's incremental contribution to systemic risk based on a risk budgeting approach. The imposition of such capital charges could go a long way towards internalizing the negative externalities associated with too‐connected‐to‐fail institutions and providing managerial incentives to strengthen an institution's solvency position, and avoid too much homogeneity and excessive reliance on the same counterparties in the financial industry.  相似文献   

6.
We derive and estimate a copula combining the features of the Frank and Gumbel copulas to analyse the relationship between equity and long‐term bond returns. Our analysis of quarterly returns from 1952 to 2003 finds that, in general, there is a positive relationship between equity returns and bond returns. In extreme situations, however, there is approximately a one‐in‐seven chance of a flight‐to‐quality effect where large negative equity returns are associated with large positive bond returns.  相似文献   

7.
This study seeks to disentangle the effects of size, book‐to‐market and momentum on returns. Initial results show that each characteristic has a role in explaining returns, but that there is interaction between size and momentum, as well as between size and book‐to‐market. Three key findings emerge. First, the size premium is the strongest, particularly in the loser portfolios. Second, the value premium is generally limited to the smallest portfolios. Third, the momentum premium is evident for the large‐ and middle‐sized portfolios, but loser stocks significantly outperform winner stocks in the smallest size portfolio. When these interactions are controlled with multivariate regression, we find a significant negative average relation between size and returns, a significant positive average relation between book‐to‐market and returns, and a significant positive average relation between momentum and returns.  相似文献   

8.
We show that highly liquid Exchange‐Traded Funds (ETFs), especially those that are more liquid than their underlying basket of securities (i.e., positive relative liquidity), are particularly attractive to investors. Using three definitions of liquidity, we find that relative liquidity predicts net fund flows, as well as inflows and outflows positively and significantly. We further document a liquidity clientele among institutional investors: (i) relative liquidity is significantly more important for short‐ than for long‐term investors; and (ii) relative liquidity is inversely related to investors’ average holding duration in the ETFs. These two findings provide evidence that relative liquidity encourages short‐term demand.  相似文献   

9.
We investigate the effects of an increase in tick size on order and trading flow across market fee models. Using the pilot firms in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Tick Size Pilot Program, we document that trade and order volume declines on maker‐taker fee models after the tick size implementation. We find that the inverted fee models (taker‐maker) experience an increase in both trade and order volume. Additionally, we find that a tick size adjustment has a substantial influence on market participation in maker‐taker fee models. We also find that measures of both hidden and algorithmic trading decline with an increasing tick size, which is strongly moderated by the differences in the maker‐taker and taker‐maker fee models.  相似文献   

10.
This study examines and compares stock returns and volatilities between state‐owned (SO) and non‐state‐owned (NSO) firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Results vary significantly by exchange. Returns for both firm types, on both exchanges, exhibit negative skewness and high kurtosis inconsistent with a normal distribution. Returns display significant autocorrelation, even after the removal of lower‐order effects. Granger causality tests reveal that Shenzhen returns significantly lead Shanghai returns. Within both exchanges, SO firms lead NSO firms. Neither SO nor NSO firm shares are dominated in terms of second‐order stochastic dominance.  相似文献   

11.
Concentration of family‐based ownership and recent development of private equity companies in Continental Europe suggest that the motivations and results of public‐to‐private (PTP) deals may differ from well‐studied cases in the USA and the UK. We overview the PTP market and measure the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of 106 PTP deals concluded in Continental Europe from 2000 to 2005, introducing a model to explain the abnormal returns. Our results partially confirm findings of previous studies, namely, that undervalued and smaller firms register higher CARs. We additionally find that deals promoted by family owners register higher abnormal returns, whereas financial investors and private operating firms show no impact.  相似文献   

12.
This study proposes an investment recommendation model for peer‐to‐peer (P2P) lending. P2P lenders usually are inexpert, so helping them to make the best decision for their investments is vital. In this study, while we aim to compare the performance of different artificial neural network (ANN) models, we evaluate loans from two perspectives: risk and return. The net present value (NPV) is considered as the return variable. To the best of our knowledge, NPV has been used in few studies in the P2P lending context. Considering the advantages of using NPV, we aim to improve decision‐making models in this market by the use of NPV and the integration of supervised learning and optimization algorithms that can be considered as one of our contributions. In order to predict NPV, three ANN models are compared concerning mean square error, mean absolute error, and root‐mean‐square error to find the optimal ANN model. Furthermore, for the risk evaluation, the probability of default of loans is computed using logistic regression. Investors in the P2P lending market can share their assets between different loans, so the procedure of P2P investment is similar to portfolio optimization. In this context, we minimize the risk of a portfolio for a minimum acceptable level of return. To analyse the effectiveness of our proposed model, we compare our decision‐making algorithm with the output of a traditional model. The experimental results on a real‐world data set show that our model leads to a better investment concerning both risk and return.  相似文献   

13.
Persistent variations of the log price‐to‐dividend ratio (PD) and their economic determinants have attracted a lively discussion in the literature. We suggest a gradually time‐varying state process to govern the persistence of the PD. The adopted state‐space approach offers favorable model diagnostics and finds particular support in out‐of‐sample stock return prediction. We show that this slowly evolving mean process is jointly shaped by the consumption risk, the demographic structure, and the proportion of firms with traditional dividend payout policy during the past 60 years. In particular, the volatility of consumption growth plays the dominant role.  相似文献   

14.
When‐issued (i.e., forward) trading in T‐bills yet to be auctioned provides a unique environment for examining price discovery. Because T‐bills are auctioned in a sealed‐bid process, when‐issued traders cannot observe the spot market price. Yet the forward price must ultimately converge on the auction outcome price. Our results indicate that traders in the when‐issued market “discover” the ultimate auction price. Little evidence is found that standard order flow variables contribute to price discovery. Instead, the ability to observe a few trades with relatively small volume in the when‐issued market is sufficient to discover the auction price resulting from the sealed‐bid process.  相似文献   

15.
This study comprehensively reexamines the debate over behavioral and rational explanations for the investment effect in an updated sample. We closely follow the previous literature and provide several differences. Our tests include five prominent measures of corporate investment and corporate profitability in q‐theory and recent investment‐based asset pricing models. Both classical and Bayesian inferences show that limits‐to‐arbitrage tend to be supported by more evidence than investment frictions for all investment measures. When idiosyncratic volatility and cash flow volatility are used in measuring investment frictions, the inference is more favorable for the rational explanation.  相似文献   

16.
This study examines the daily short-selling activities in the U.S. market during the early 2020 outbreak of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Our findings indicate firms that are more sensitive to the shock (i.e., with high foreign exposure, low financial or operating flexibility, or high supply-chain exposure) were shorted more heavily. Moreover, short-selling activities during the COVID-19 pandemic, blamed for triggering stock market crashes, were primarily concentrated around overpriced stocks. This finding supports the argument that short selling plays a prominent role in improving price discoveries. Our research provides timely empirical evidence supporting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) non-intervention approach in banning short selling in the U.S. market.  相似文献   

17.
This paper examines the effect of book‐to‐market equity (BE/ME) on asset correlations under the Basel capital requirement. We find that BE/ME captures variations in asset correlations after controlling for firm size, default probability and industry effects from 1987 to 2011. Obligors with higher BE/ME exhibit lower asset correlations compared to those with lower BE/ME. Decomposing BE/ME into assets‐in‐place and growth options based on the asset pricing literature shows that obligors with more assets‐in‐place or more fixed assets have higher BE/ME and lower asset correlations than those with more growth options. Overall, our findings suggest that BE/ME is an additional important factor that may improve the estimates of asset correlations and thereby banks’ capital adequacy.  相似文献   

18.
This paper is concerned with the allegation that fair value accounting rules have contributed significantly to the recent financial crisis. It focuses on one particular channel for that contribution: the impact of fair value on the actual or potential failure of banks. The paper compares four criteria for failure: one economic, two legal and one regulatory. It is clear from this comparison that balance sheet valuations of assets are, in two cases, crucial in these definitions, and so the choice between ‘fair value’ or other valuations can be decisive in whether a bank fails; but in two cases fair value is irrelevant. Bank failures might arise despite capital adequacy and balance sheet solvency due to sudden shocks to liquidity positions. Two of the most prominent bank failures cannot, at first sight, be attributed to fair value accounting: we show that Northern Rock was balance sheet solvent, even on a fair value basis, as was Lehman Brothers. The case study evidence is augmented by econometric tests that suggest that mark‐to‐market accounting has had only a very limited influence on the perceived failure risk of banks.  相似文献   

19.
This study compares the components of the bid‐ask spread estimated from quotes that reflect the trading interest of specialists with those estimated from limit‐order quotes and all available quotes for a sample of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stocks. The results show that the adverse selection component of the spread estimated from specialist quotes is significantly smaller than the corresponding figures from limit‐order quotes and entire quotes. We interpret this as evidence that NYSE specialists transfer at least a part of adverse selection costs to outsiders through the discretionary use of limit orders. Our results show that the estimation/interpretation of the components of the spread using quote data that include both specialist and limit‐order interests is problematic.  相似文献   

20.
Using NASDAQ trade and Reuters news data, I show that the response of aggressive non‐high‐frequency traders (nHFTs) to news is stronger than that of aggressive high‐frequency traders (HFTs). Classifying news into quantitative (“hard”) and less quantitative (“softer”) news, the trading response of aggressive nHFTs to softer news exceeds HFTs’ response. Positive news elicits greater return and nHFT responses than negative news during the 2008 financial crisis period. As this phenomenon persists even after excluding the 2008 short‐sale ban, the results support the hypothesis of nHFTs exhibiting stronger asymmetric responses during crisis periods.  相似文献   

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